Sean John Lanfranca said he is firing on Don'Tale Mayes at +235 despite the heavyweight’s ugly 77-second loss last time out. Lanfranca pointed to Mayes’ eight-inch reach advantage over Thomas Peterson, noting Peterson has already been knocked out once on the regional scene and was jabbed to a decision by Jamal Pogues. He expects Peterson to wrestle early, but believes Mayes is athletic enough to stay upright, pump the jab from long range and land the cleaner, heavier strikes. Because nobody wants to touch Mayes after the quick KO, Lanfranca is waiting to see if the line drifts even higher and will grab anything above +200 in what he views as a true coin-flip matchup.

Matty Betts backed Thomas Petersen to win by submission at +700. He argued that Dontale Mayes looks "finished": Mayes has been heel-hooked twice in the UFC, routinely quits when fights hit the mat, and is a one-dimensional, aging kickboxer. Although Petersen is not as physically imposing as Jailton Almeida or Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Betts believes Petersen is skilled enough to secure at least one takedown. On the ground Mayes offers little resistance, giving Petersen multiple chances to lock up a choke or joint lock rather than needing extended ground-and-pound. Because a referee stoppage from strikes feels less likely, Betts prefers the generous submission number to an inside-the-distance ticket and made it the first—and riskiest—leg of his cycle parlay.

Millz Young urged bettors to lay the roughly –250 price on Thomas Petersen. He noted that Dantel Mays looks fluid for a heavyweight but consistently fails to defend takedowns and rarely flashes genuine knockout power. Petersen, a lifelong wrestler, will lean even harder on his mat game after suffering a KO loss to Shamil Gaziev last time out. Millz expects a rinse-and-repeat approach—level changes, chain wrestling and long periods of top control—while avoiding extended striking exchanges. The pick is Petersen by decision or late ground-and-pound, and Millz recommended parlaying Petersen or playing Petersen by submission/KO props.

Andy Lang told listeners to keep every penny away from Mayes-Peterson. He leans Peterson only because Mayes routinely trips over his own feet, but Lang flagged major red flags on Peterson as well, citing how different he looked since Dana White’s Contender Series—"something is up with Thomas Peterson." Because neither side offers a skill or cardio advantage you can trust, Lang said even over/under markets are a guess and the fight should be ignored from a betting standpoint.

Matty Betts advised backing Thomas Peterson inside the distance and specifically likes the submission prop (+700) or a long-shot key-lock at 50-1 when books post it. He noted Peterson’s Contender Series win came via key-lock, and Peterson landed two takedowns on Mohammed Usman, proving his wrestling is UFC-ready. Betts and Mort both slammed Mayes’ ground game, pointing to Walter Walker heel-hooking Mayes with zero resistance and Mayes’ 3 prior submission losses. Peterson is just –265 on the moneyline but Betts prefers the ITD line at +220, expecting repeated takedowns and a tap once Mayes “gives up” under pressure.

The Weasle advised betting Thomas Peterson by decision. He highlighted that Dantel Mayes switches stances and throws unorthodox strikes, but the off-beat timing actually gets Mayes hit first. Peterson is a shorter southpaw who explodes into combinations that hide level changes; he took down every UFC opponent to date and even handled the much taller Muhammad Usman. With Mayes conceding takedowns and lacking defensive wrestling, Peterson’s mix of pocket boxing and chain wrestling should bank rounds. Lay the Peterson money-line or sprinkle Peterson-by-decision props, as The Weasle expects three grinding rounds rather than a finish.

DFS Army backed Thomas Peterson ($8,900, ‑260) to smash Don'Tale Mayes ($7,300, +215) and likely finish. He called Mayes a "walking human punching bag" who absorbs 4+ strikes a minute and has beaten only fringe heavyweights like 55-year-old Andrei Arlovski and Josh Parisian. Peterson, meanwhile, throws nearly four strikes per minute, averages more than one takedown per round, and logs 90+ seconds of control in each of the first two rounds before his stand-up volume climbs to 5.6 strikes/min in Round 3. With the bout lined 50/50 to end inside the distance, he expects Peterson’s quicker hands, wrestling edge, and better cardio to overwhelm Mayes and produce the kind of early-finish score that cracks the DFS optimal lineup, while still recommending some hedge exposure to the volatile heavyweight dog.

Jim Malaro technically picked Thomas Peterson to beat Dontale Mayes but stressed this is a stay-away fight. He called Mayes a "perennial fade" whose balance is so bad that "a strong gust of wind" can topple him, adding that once Mayes is on his back he has no idea how to recover. Peterson is younger and should be able to simply fall on top of Mayes if Mayes whiffs a kick, but Malaro admitted Peterson showed a shaky chin in the recent KO loss to Shamil Gaziev and carries limited upside. With no confidence in either man’s cardio, durability, or fight IQ, Malaro advised passing on both the moneyline and the totals.

Monk backed Thomas “The Train” Peterson at $8,900, noting that Mayes is essentially a “walking human punching bag” who absorbs four significant strikes per minute and shows poor defensive instincts. Peterson averages more than one takedown per round in his regional tape and has logged 4.0–5.6 significant strikes per minute depending on the frame, while pairing those numbers with 1.5–2.5 minutes of control time in early rounds. Mayes, by contrast, has been bullied by far lesser heavyweights (losses to Machado, Parisian, and a 40-plus Arlovski) and rarely wins minutes unless he lands a haymaker. Monk expects Peterson to be quicker in pocket exchanges, drag Mayes down at least once per round, and either find a finish or pile up dominant-position points that smash the $8.9k price tag. Because heavyweight volatility is real, he will still keep a sliver of Mayes in MME builds, but Peterson is his preferred spend-up piece in a slate short on reliable finish potential.

Cody Saftic advised backing Thomas Peterson despite the –255 price, zeroing in on a wrestle-heavy decision as the safest path. Peterson is a former JuCo national champion at Iowa Central who later wrestled D-I at Northern Iowa—the same room as fellow corn-state dog Ryan Loder—so he will enjoy local crowd support in a region that loves mat work. Cody highlighted Peterson’s blast-double that instantly grounded Shamil Gaziev last time out; he expects that same entry to topple 6'6" Don'Tale Mayes, whose career trend is clear: if opponents shoot, he goes down (Hamdi 3-of-4, Gaziev 2-of-2, Nascimento 0 TDs but 2.5 minutes of clinch control). Mayes owns a long jab and big power, but Cody doubts the low-volume heavyweight can get off his back once planted. Because Peterson rarely passes guard and is unlikely to finish, Saftic prefers Peterson by decision (+180 range) or simply betting him straight while avoiding over/unders—if Peterson abandons wrestling again, he could get clipped, but three takedowns and top pressure should bank 30-27s more often than not.

Kunath said Thomas Petersen is worth backing because Don'Tale Mayes might be the heavyweight "wote." Mayes owns an 11-8 record, has shown almost no improvement after long stretches training with Jon Jones, defends takedowns at a miserable clip, and tends to turtle once grounded. Petersen is hardly elite—Kunath called him "basura"—yet he still opened –265 because the matchup is that favorable. The path of least resistance is clear: shoot early, drag the 6-6 Mayes to the mat, and hammer away until the ref steps in. Previous opponents have exploited the same flaw, and Kunath expects Petersen to repeat it for a first- or second-round TKO. He advised skipping the pricey money-line in favor of the KO/TKO prop and sprinkling Petersen into mid-range DFS builds for wrestling points plus finish equity.

MMA Guru backed Dontale Mays as an underdog and predicted a round-two TKO of Thomas Petersen. He highlighted Mays’ seven-inch reach, superior athleticism, and years of UFC experience, contrasting them with Petersen’s "ball of flab" frame and limited gas tank. Guru noted Mays survived takedowns from Shamil Gaziev and routinely works back to his feet, while Petersen struggles to control opponents on the mat and was finished quickly by Gaziev. If Petersen can’t blanket early, Guru expects him to slip off during a stand-up scramble, giving Mays top position and the chance to finish with ground-and-pound. All the finishing equity is on Mays’ side, so Guru recommended the Mays moneyline or inside-the-distance prop.

Bedtime MMA predicted Thomas Peterson wins a 29-28 type decision over Don'Tale Mayes. His logic: Mayes was somehow ranked a fight ago yet the tout has "never seen him win" in nearly a decade of weekly viewing, calling him “dog---.” Peterson, on the other hand, owns the cardio and pressure game that “nobody 29-28s,” so three rounds of clinch work and top control should bank him the cards.

Jeff Fox also sided with Thomas Peterson, ticking off a simple checklist: Peterson is three years younger, owns the superior striking differential (+0.46 vs –0.28), and boasts better offensive and defensive grappling metrics. He is the former LFA heavyweight champ and has won four of his last six, whereas Don'Tale Mayes is just 4-6 (1 NC) in the UFC and coming off a submission loss. Fox concluded that Peterson is "better at everything" and worth betting at –250.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland is backing Thomas Peterson (–250) largely on wrestling. Peterson landed an early takedown on heavyweight prospect Shamil Gaziev before getting caught, proving to Gumby that his level-changes translate to the UFC. Mayes, meanwhile, was rag-dolled by Gaziev and owns three submission losses. Vreeland expects Peterson’s chain wrestling, top pressure, and ground-and-pound to wear Mayes down and sees a finish as very live. He prefers the Peterson money line and will sprinkle inside-the-distance props.