Drew Martin said to lay the –135 with Detroit because everything lines up against Pittsburgh. The Pirates stagger in at 1-11 over their last 12 games and were just swept by the White Sox, giving them the second-worst record in the NL. He wants to keep fading that free-fall. On the mound, former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize is 9-3, an All-Star, and has won three of his last four decisions. Martin expects another solid outing against a lineup he called "pretty dreadful." Mitch Keller’s surface stats look OK, but the right-hander is only 3-10 and, after facing the Twins and Royals, now takes a step up in class versus Detroit bats that have been producing. With the Pirates’ form in the tank and the Tigers’ ace on the hill, Martin advised betting Detroit moneyline.

Eric Pathi advised taking the Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline at +120 in Tuesday’s early 6:40 PM Eastern matchup against Detroit. Pathi’s angle is the classic ‘day-after flip’: Detroit was a short home favorite Monday but dropped the game 3-0, and oddsmakers have now swung the line 40 cents the other way, installing the Tigers as –140 favorites despite Mitch Keller taking the hill for Pittsburgh. Pathi noted that when yesterday’s favored home team becomes a dog in the rematch with no major news, he defaults to the dog. Backing Keller—whose 3.48 ERA and 23 % strikeout rate give Pittsburgh the starting-pitching edge—adds confidence to the play. He labeled this the complimentary value selection for non-subscribers and said to “rock and roll with Pittsburgh plus 20 cents.”

Lindquist is backing Pittsburgh at +125 with Mitch Keller on the mound against Casey Mize. He argued Mize’s shiny surface numbers mask oncoming regression: the right-hander’s .294 xwOBA is far below his career .333 mark, and his splitter/slurve-heavy arsenal should lead to more walks as hitters make in-game adjustments. Pittsburgh can load up left-handed bats—Spencer Horwitz, switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds, and O’Neil Cruz—all of whom grade out well in Lindquist’s xwOBA database versus righties. Offensively, Detroit remains thin without Kerry Carpenter, and Keller’s ground-ball profile plays in spacious Comerica. With Detroit’s lineup still 16-41 in games started by Tarik Skubal, Lindquist thinks Tigers brass will be overly aggressive with their bullpen, further tilting the matchup toward the plus-money Bucs.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Detroit Tigers on the money line because Casey Mize owns a sub-3.50 ERA and gets far better support than Mitch Keller. Detroit’s lineup is hitting .260 as a club versus the Pirates’ sub-.230 mark, and Pittsburgh’s anemic offense is a big reason Keller already has 10 losses despite decent peripherals. The tout noted the Tigers still carry the best record in the AL and deploy a deeper bullpen, giving Mize the edge in a matchup that otherwise looks even on paper.

Kenny G backed the Tigers at +104 despite facing phenom Paul Skeens. His angle: Skeens’ workload cap means Pittsburgh’s bottom-10 bullpen must cover at least three innings, a huge edge for Detroit once the right-hander exits. Jack Flaherty has quietly righted the ship (2 ER in Seattle last start) and should thrive against MLB’s worst lineup. Detroit carries an MLB-best 28-22 road record and ranks 6th in runs and 7th in slugging for the season, whereas the Pirates have dropped four straight and were just swept by the White Sox. Kenny concluded it “won’t be Skeens’ fault” when Pittsburgh loses, but the price gives bettors more than fair compensation to ride the surging road club.

Just A Bet Outside said Jack Flaherty is in one of the two best K spots on Monday and expects him to eclipse his strike-out prop. The Pirates own the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers over the past three weeks (23.1%), and Flaherty has punched out at least seven batters in four straight outings. He now sits at 124 strikeouts in 100.2 innings on the year. Even though his road K-rate (25%) is lower than his home mark (32.7%), the host still likes the matchup because Pittsburgh’s righty-heavy lineup feeds Flaherty’s 33% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters. The combination of recent form and opponent swing-and-miss tendencies makes the over on his strikeout line the recommended play.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Pittsburgh despite the club being swept by the White Sox, citing Paul Skeens’ dominance. The rookie owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.93 WHIP overall and is even better at PNC Park: 2.31 ERA, .189 opponent average over 50.2 innings. Detroit counters with Jack Flaherty (4.65 ERA overall, 6.08 road ERA, .271 BAA in 40 away IP). Given the mound mismatch and Pittsburgh’s urgency to rebound at home, the tout labeled the Pirates moneyline a play-on spot.

Malcom Bamford echoed the Tigers play, stressing that the Pirates were just blitzed three straight by the White Sox and have no business laying –125. Jack Flaherty has steadied (2,2,3,3 ER last four starts) and Detroit’s lineup profiles better against Pittsburgh’s shaky bullpen. Bamford respects Skenes’ talent but points out that even elite starting pitching can’t overcome an offense that was out-scored by roughly 20 runs over the weekend. He is happy to grab anything north of even money on Detroit.

Rockford took Detroit at +105 despite Paul Skenes going for Pittsburgh. His rationale: the Pirates are 1-9 in their last 10 and rank near the bottom of MLB in wRC+ during that span, while Detroit is a top-10 road offense (.264 AVG, 4.9 RPG away from Comerica). He admits Skenes is the superior arm but questions whether Pittsburgh can supply more than a couple runs. If you absolutely must back Skenes, he suggests isolating a first-five play, but full game value clearly sits with the Tigers’ livelier bats.

Lindquist recommended taking the Pirates moneyline against Detroit, citing Paul Skenes’ dominance (35.9 % K-rate, zero glaring platoon leaks) for the first five innings and a bullpen that can mix-and-match once Skenes hits his roughly 80-pitch cap. On the other side, Jack Flaherty’s lone weakness in 2024—loud contact to left-handed bats—sets up poorly against Oneil Cruz and the Pirates’ other lefty power options. Detroit’s offense frequently platoons and shuffles, which Lindquist believes allows Pittsburgh’s late-inning relievers to leverage handedness advantages. Even with Skenes unlikely to reach the seventh, he views the cumulative matchup as Pirates > Tigers and is willing to eat modest juice to ride it.