Brown advised holding fire on Scottie Scheffler pre-tournament at +170 and instead waiting for an in-round drift. Because Scheffler tees off last on Thursday, earlier groups—especially ball-strikers like Viktor Hovland or Akshay Bhatia—could post a three- or four-under number and nudge Scheffler’s price north of 2-to-1 before he even hits a shot. Brown said the odds are unlikely to get worse but have room to improve, and he is prepared to add Scheffler outright only if the live number cracks +200.

Brown also took Spaun as an underdog in a head-to-head versus Collin Morikawa. He highlighted Morikawa’s on-air admission last week that he "doesn’t even know where the ball is going," then backed it up with stats: Morikawa gained 6.22 strokes on approach but hemorrhaged nearly six strokes putting and another four around the green, converting just 46.2 percent of scramble attempts. Brown believes Spaun is "feeling it" right now and trusts Spaun’s more balanced game over Morikawa’s extreme volatility, making the plus-money price on Spaun an “awesome bet.”

At +140, Brown bet J.J. Spaun to finish inside the top 10. Spaun rated inside the top seven in every projection Brown ran this week and grades out as a near-perfect course fit, ranking highly in fairways-gained and mid-iron proximity—two of East Lake’s key stats. With only 30 players in the field, Brown sees the book hanging a price that fails to account for Spaun’s recent form and tight dispersion in his numbers.

Brown grabbed Ben Griffin at 5-to-1 for a top-five finish, stressing that the 30-player format dramatically raises Griffin’s floor and ceiling. Griffin has been steady all year and does not have to beat Scottie Scheffler head-to-head—he simply needs the same solid ball-striking he has shown all season to sneak into the first page of a shortened leaderboard. Brown called the price an "upside play" that is bigger than his raw model output for Griffin in a no-cut event.

Brown played Rory McIlroy to finish inside the top five at +140. He said every model he has run places Rory firmly in the top tier this week and pointed to McIlroy’s "tons of success" at East Lake in prior seasons. Brown views the number as essentially the same price the market made Rory last week despite a smaller, 30-man field and thinks the combination of elite tee-to-green metrics and course history makes the plus money too good to pass up.

Matt Brown said he is loading up on Cameron Young this week. He laid ‑115 on Young over Robert MacIntyre and ‑105 on Young over Justin Thomas, then added a Top-10 ticket at +125 that was hanging off-market at BetMGM. Brown’s logic is straightforward: Young has closed the last two tournaments with strong weekends and profiles perfectly for East Lake—long and, more importantly, accurate with the driver. That combination should play on a course where fairway position is everything. Conversely, Brown wants to attack opponents whose games do not fit. He noted Justin Thomas’ season-long troubles finding fairways and suggested MacIntyre could be flat after last week’s grind. With the Scottish left-hander power-ranked well below Young in his numbers, Brown feels the price gap is still too small, making all three bets worth firing.

Bydlon recommended attacking matchup markets with Cameron Young, betting him –115 over Robert MacIntyre and –105 over Justin Thomas. Young’s length and accuracy off the tee align with East Lake’s premium on total driving, and he closed strongly at the BMW, suggesting no let-up in form. By contrast, Bydlon cited season-long accuracy issues for Thomas and noted MacIntyre’s grueling schedule heading into Atlanta. With Young power-ranking well above both opponents in his model, Bydlon sees these near-pick-em prices as mis-tagged and expects the American to win both matchups.

Kelley Bydlon’s lone outright is Ludvig Aberg at roughly 20-1. Aberg has gained strokes with the flat stick in five of his last seven starts and is gaining across the board in ball-striking. He owns three top-10 finishes over his last four events, and Bydlon believes East Lake’s emphasis on total driving and long-iron approach fits Aberg’s strengths perfectly. The only real fear is Scottie Scheffler, so Bydlon supplemented the outright with a small Scheffler-Aberg exacta at 18-1, effectively creating upside while acknowledging the favorite. The take: keep riding Aberg’s upward trajectory before sportsbooks fully price him among the elite.

Reynolds also tacked on Sam Burns at 30-1. Burns rode a hot short game to a T4 last week, ranking second in both Strokes Gained: Putting and Scrambling, and Reynolds thinks that touch will translate to the Tour Championship’s Bermuda greens where Burns historically excels. A strong week would bolster Burns’ case for a Ryder Cup captain’s pick, giving added motivation. In a soft, rain-affected East Lake setup where avoiding bogeys is critical, Reynolds prefers Burns’ elite short-game ceiling and believes the price is too long for a proven Bermuda specialist in a 30-player shoot-out.

Reynolds grabbed Viktor Hovland at 30-1, citing a combination of course history and elite iron play. Hovland captured the FedEx Cup two years ago with the low 72-hole score, finished 4th in 2021, and 8th last year, so he clearly likes East Lake. Statistically he ranks second on the PGA TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Scottie Scheffler, and he was third in that same category at the BMW. Reynolds views East Lake as an approach-scoring venue and thinks Hovland’s lifetime form plus the generous price in a 30-man field make him one of the few with realistic win equity if Scheffler slips.

Wes Reynolds fired another bullet at 14-1 on Tommy Fleetwood to win the Tour Championship. Reynolds acknowledged the emotional scars of past Fleetwood tickets but thinks the form is too good to ignore: Fleetwood was one of only three players in last week’s BMW field who gained strokes in every category (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, and putting), joining Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland. Southwind, where that event was played, has long been a strong corollary course to East Lake, and Reynolds noted Fleetwood was the best player on the course for most of the week before fading. With just 30 players in the field and fairway-first rough similar to what he just conquered, Reynolds believes the Englishman’s balanced game and elite par-4 scoring give him real win equity despite his limited East Lake history.

Kelley Bydlon argued there is still value in Harry Hall placement props even at East Lake. Hall has finished T28 or better in every start since the Byron Nelson and has lived in the top-20s for three straight months despite below-average length and middling iron play. Bydlon compared Hall's steady leaderboard presence to Harris English and pointed out that the market continues to hang a 'long number' on Hall in Top-20 and matchup markets because bettors fixate on his lack of distance. The putter has carried him all summer, and Bydlon thinks that track record is enough to justify another Top-20 ticket this week, course fit or not.

Matt Brown said bettors should avoid Harry Hall outright or other high-ceiling bets at the Tour Championship because Hall's game is almost entirely putter-driven. Brown noted Hall has been gaining 7–9 strokes with the flat stick yet still landing only T15-T24, which shows how much ground he loses off the tee and on approach. Hall ranks near the bottom of the East Lake field in both strokes-gained off-the-tee and approach, numbers Brown believes make it impossible to reach the 15-plus total strokes-gained usually required to win here. In Brown's view Hall can back-door another top-25, but he has zero win equity, so Brown advised fading Hall in outright markets and prioritizing stronger ball strikers instead.

Brown argued that Rory McIlroy’s +850 outright number is not attractive. McIlroy was the same price in last week’s 50-man FedEx St. Jude field, yet the Tour Championship trims to only 30 players and eliminates starting strokes, meaning Rory now has to start level with a surging Scottie Scheffler who is priced at +150 and riding a 13-tournament top-8 streak. The market has not meaningfully adjusted McIlroy’s odds despite Scheffler’s continuing statistical edge and the smaller, stronger field, so Brown advised passing on Rory at this number and either backing Scheffler or looking much further down the board for value.

Matt Brown said bettors should not get cute and should simply back Scottie Scheffler outright at +150 (as high as +170 at BetMGM) to win the Tour Championship. Brown pointed out that Scheffler has finished no worse than T-8 in 13 consecutive starts and just came from four shots back on Sunday to win last week while leading the field off-the-tee, ranking first in greens-in-regulation and gaining over four strokes around the green, including an 81-foot chip-in. Wes Reynolds added context that Scheffler was only +115 here last year when he began with a two-shot lead, yet he is nearly the same price this year with everyone starting at even par, underscoring how dominant the market views him. Ted Scott is back on the bag, further solidifying the case. With a 30-man field that includes several perceived non-threats such as Andrew Novak and Nick Taylor, Brown argued Scheffler effectively has to beat roughly 22 realistic opponents, making the short number justifiable for outright bets and DFS anchor builds.

Brandon Gdula is steering clear of Patrick Cantlay despite the appealing mid-range salary. He labeled Cantlay “a low-ceiling, high-floor player” and argued that in a 30-man no-cut event you need win equity, not just steady scoring. Cantlay has posted exactly one top-5 finish in his last 12 starts and sits outside the top 40 this season in birdie-or-better percentage, a critical DFS scoring stat. Gdula prefers ceiling-heavy pivots such as Collin Morikawa or J.J. Spaun and will have minimal Cantlay exposure in tournaments.

Gdula called Justin Rose at $7,900 “a little disrespected.” Internal FanDuel sims have Rose 11th in projected ceiling but 27th in floor among the 30 players, exactly the volatility profile you want next to a chalky Scheffler. Rose has gained strokes with the putter in nine of his past eleven starts and ranks top-15 on TOUR in weighted proximity from 150–200 yards, a key range at East Lake. Gdula plans to be overweight, stating he will "play a lot of Justin Rose" as his primary salary-saver to unlock multiple elite builds.

Jim Sannes singled out J.J. Spaun at $10.4K as the only mid-range golfer he “kind of wants to use.” Pairing Scheffler with Spaun still leaves roughly $8.9K per remaining slot, letting you grab another top-end ceiling such as Viktor Hovland while avoiding a stars-and-scrubs build. Sannes noted that the rest of the $10K tier lacks upside relative to salary, whereas Spaun’s recent ball-striking surge (gaining strokes on approach in five of his last six measured events) gives him realistic top-5 equity and keeps roster builds balanced in the small-field GPP environment.

Brandon Gdula said it is simply too thin to fade Scottie Scheffler in a 30–man Tour Championship field. To pass on him you have to assume two improbable things: several mid-tier names simultaneously post their best golf while Scheffler, who leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total and Tee-to-Green this season, plays poorly. Gdula prefers locking Scheffler at $14,000, then differentiating by leaving salary on the table or pivoting to lower-rostered value plays. Chalk will be high across the board, but Scheffler’s ceiling and built-in starting-strokes advantage make him the safest path to first-place DFS equity this week.

Brandon Gdula advised jamming Scottie Scheffler into every FanDuel lineup at $14,000 despite the sticker shock. With only 30 golfers at East Lake, Scheffler’s salary still leaves an average of $9,200 for the final five roster spots, a build Gdula finds easy to execute. He argued that fading Scheffler requires a parlay of unlikely events: Scheffler would need to finish sixth or worse while a pricey Rory McIlroy–Tommy Fleetwood pairing goes 1-2, or several ‘tier-two’ names simultaneously post ceiling weeks. Because managers can still afford value plays even after rostering Scheffler, the opportunity cost is low. Gdula concluded that paying up for the world No. 1’s combination of elite ball-striking and win equity is the optimal DFS strategy, and lineups can differentiate elsewhere by leaving salary on the table or mining lower-rostered cheap options.

Jim Sannes said Harry Hall is worth a Top-10 wager at +220 on FanDuel because Hall’s world-class short game has stayed red-hot over a large sample and the metrics finally back it up. Hall ranks fifth in Sannes’s ‘relevant strokes-gained’ model after adjusting for the slower stabilization of short-game stats. He also flashed upside with the irons last week, gaining 0.69 strokes on approach at the BMW Championship on the way to a Top-10 finish. East Lake should accentuate Hall’s strengths: accuracy matters more than raw distance, so his lack of length is less of a liability, and putting has historically carried winners here. The only red flag Sannes noted is that this is Hall’s first Tour Championship start, but he is willing to overlook the inexperience at this number because Hall grades out as the best putter in the field and still pops statistically once the noisy short-game data are accounted for.

Jim Sannes embraced volatility by backing Harry Hall at +220 for a top-ten finish. Hall ranks fifth in Sannes’s "relevant strokes gained" metric once stabilization is accounted for, driven by a dominant putter and short game that has stayed hot over a large sample. Sannes admitted Hall lacks prototypical ball-striking but noted he continues to gain strokes putting week after week—enough to carry him in a 30-player field. Sannes said he has "given up doubting" Hall’s sustainability and believes the elite short-game ceiling makes +220 an attractive price.

Jim Sannes went back to the well on Harris English, recommending a +190 top-ten ticket. DataGolf shows English has gained at least 0.16 true strokes in all four categories over the past six months and sits at +0.36 or better everywhere except around-the-green, the least predictive stat. Even with cooler ball-striking the last two events, English finished 12th at the BMW thanks to an elite putter, underscoring multiple routes to a top-ten. In a 30-man field Sannes believes English’s balanced game and recent form warrant the short number.

Brandon Gdula moved to the finishing-position market and played Collin Morikawa at +400 to finish top five. Morikawa sits seventh in ball-striking over the last 36 rounds and is essentially level with the top four, giving him a massive tee-to-green ceiling in a 30-golfer field. Although his short game rates worst in the field over the last 50 rounds, Gdula argued Morikawa needs only a neutral putting week to cash, and the +400 price fully accounts for the weakness while allowing bettors to avoid a matchup with Scheffler. With several players likely non-competitive, Gdula sees an expanded pathway to a top-five finish.

Brandon Gdula targeted Viktor Hovland at 30-to-1 to win the Tour Championship, arguing the course amplifies Hovland’s elite tee-to-green ceiling. Over the last 36 rounds Hovland trails only Scottie Scheffler in combined off-the-tee plus approach strokes gained (1.46 per round vs. Scheffler’s 2.57). DataGolf shows Hovland owns the best career strokes-gained numbers at East Lake among this field and has gained at least 1.81 strokes on approach in four of his past six starts, signaling spike-week potential. Gdula conceded the putter is volatile—hence the 30-1 price—but believes that ceiling makes Hovland the best mid-tier value on the board.

Jim Sannes reiterated that Russell Henley is the lone outright ticket in his account this week at 20-to-1. Citing DataGolf, Sannes noted Henley ranks fourth in true strokes gained and is tied for third in strokes gained at stabilization over the last six months. East Lake deemphasizes distance and rewards fairways, a combination that has already produced strong Henley finishes, including last year’s T4. Even after the odds shortened, Sannes still sees value, arguing Henley checks every box except needing an average putting week to threaten Scottie Scheffler.

Brandon Gdula said he is "really optimistic" about Russell Henley and made Henley his first click in the outright market at 20-to-1 for the Tour Championship. Gdula pointed to Henley’s fourth-place finish at East Lake a year ago and stressed that the course rewards accuracy more than raw distance, aligning perfectly with Henley’s profile. He added that bettors still need Scottie Scheffler’s putter to cooperate only "OK," but the 20-1 price is noticeably better than the numbers on Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood or Ludvig Aberg. In Gdula’s view Henley offers the best value in the non-Scheffler tier and is worth an early wager.

Brandon Gdula pegged Russell Henley as his top value on the FanDuel board at 20-to-1 (shortened from 27). Henley ranks 12th in approach and 4th in driving accuracy over the last 50 rounds, while his modeled ceiling is sixth-best in the field. He is a 73rd-percentile putter inside 15 feet this season and finished fourth at East Lake last year. Gdula believes Henley’s elite fairway-finding and iron play give him the perfect profile for a soft, rain-soaked East Lake, and that a Scheffler putting hiccup is all that’s needed for Henley to contend for the trophy.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Harry Hall as his favorite sub-$9k DFS play. Hall owns the best putting numbers in the entire field by a wide margin and just posted a solo sixth after gaining with approach for the first time in five starts. Over the last three months his true strokes-gained figure sits at 2.02, nearly matching higher-priced Ben Griffin. Gdula acknowledged Hall’s mathematical ceiling is modest but noted that another top-10 finish at an $8,600 salary would smash value, especially if the Ryder Cup snub narrative fuels another spike iron week.

Brandon Gdula advised staying away from Patrick Cantlay in both outrights and high-stakes DFS line-ups. Cantlay has drifted to 25-to-1, yet Gdula’s model pegs him 27th in ceiling out of just 30 players, grouping him with salary-savers like Harry Hall rather than true contenders. Because Cantlay lacks the spike weeks needed to win and does not gain enough distance advantage at East Lake, Gdula sees no value at the current price and recommends reallocating exposure to higher-upside names.

Brandon Gdula said Tommy Fleetwood now profiles as a legitimate winner at East Lake. His model has Fleetwood third in strokes-gained tee-to-green and fourth in overall ceiling across the last 50 rounds, a huge shift from the "low-ceiling" tag that has dogged him for years. Gdula compared those metrics to Patrick Cantlay, who ranks just 27th in ceiling yet sits only a few points longer in the betting market. With Fleetwood available around 14-to-1, Gdula put the odds at “about 45 percent” that he’ll lock in an outright before Thursday and noted the bet mostly hinges on Scottie Scheffler producing merely an average putting week. The same upside makes Fleetwood a core DFS play in a 30-man field where winning equity matters most.

Brandon Gdula pointed to Harry Hall as another low-salary DFS target. Hall is gaining 2.03 strokes per four rounds across the last three months and shows a 2.14-stroke stabilization score—the third-best in the field behind only Scheffler and Fleetwood. That statistical stability, combined with a price tag far below the elite tier, gives Hall real upside in the no-cut format while freeing enough salary to jam multiple studs into a lineup.

Brandon Gdula flagged Ben Griffin as one of his favorite salary-savers on FanDuel. Griffin costs less than $10,000 despite ranking third in strokes gained over the last three months (+2.33 per four rounds) and owning the second-best floor in the field according to Gdula’s stabilization model (–0.3 SG per round at the low end). In a no-cut 30-man event where stars-and-scrubs builds are popular, Griffin’s blend of recent form and relative safety lets gamers afford Scheffler, McIlroy or Hovland without feeling dead if the punt merely finishes mid-pack.

Jim Sannes said he is willing to break his long-standing "no Tommy Fleetwood outright" rule because the Englishman’s metrics have fundamentally shifted. After switching putters, Fleetwood is gaining nearly a stroke per round with the flat stick (+0.92), eighth in this 30-man field, while still ranking fourth in ball-striking over the last 50 rounds. Sannes’ model now gives Fleetwood the fourth-highest overall ceiling and the third-highest tee-to-green ceiling at East Lake, with a floor that also ranks third. That combination of safety and upside makes the 14-to-1 outright number attractive; Sannes believes Fleetwood can win if Scheffler regresses to field-average on the greens and Fleetwood finds the upper end of his newly steady putting.

Brandon Gdula said he will not wager on Scottie Scheffler at the current +150 outright price for the Tour Championship. Gdula acknowledged Scheffler’s absurd recent form—his model shows a floor of +1.4 strokes gained per round, fully 1.7 strokes better than the next-best golfer—and he understands why the books have installed him as a prohibitive favorite. Still, Gdula needs something closer to 2-to-1 before he could justify the ticket. The top-five market is already juiced to –340, underscoring how little room exists for value. Instead, Gdula prefers looking deeper on the board where multiple players can match Scheffler’s ceiling if the World No. 1 merely putts at field average.

Brandon Gdula advised fading Sungjae Im at both 80/1 outright and a bargain-bin $7,100 DFS salary. Im has played every Tour Championship since 2020, but his approach numbers have fallen for six straight months and his DataGolf profile shows ball-striking barely scraping positive in the rare weeks it isn’t negative. He finished T40 at the BMW despite gaining around the greens, and Gdula noted that East Lake’s emphasis on precise iron play makes Im’s current form a non-starter. Until the irons rebound, Gdula sees no reason to click his name in betting slips or DFS builds.

Brandon Gdula is cautiously buying Collin Morikawa—just not in the outright market. Morikawa is 30/1 despite ranking 8th in ball-striking over the last 36 rounds and owning the lowest gross score at East Lake a year ago. He has three top-7 raw-scoring finishes in five Tour Championship starts. The catch: his short game is dead last in the field, losing 0.45 strokes per round over his last 50 rounds. Gdula is ‘intrigued’ by the number but prefers using Morikawa in placement bets or DFS lineups ($10,200) where his elite tee-to-green ceiling can pay off without requiring a perfect putting week.

Brandon Gdula thinks the market is sleeping on Rory McIlroy at +850. McIlroy owns three Tour Championship wins and three 72-hole scoring titles and is the only player to erase a four-stroke staggered-start deficit. Nothing in his profile has changed since last week’s 8/1 number—he just logged a T12 at Caves Valley and still ranks near the top in driving and putting—yet the field is 20 golfers smaller. Gdula believes bettors are over-reacting to Scottie Scheffler’s dominance and overlooking Rory’s proven ability to chase down leaders on this specific track.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Russell Henley as an automatic click at both 20/1 outright and an $11,300 DFS salary. Henley has finished 4th and 13th in his two Tour Championship appearances, and he rolls in with six consecutive top-17 finishes after a T15 at the BMW. Gdula called him “the new Colin” because his laser-accurate driving and dialed-in wedges match East Lake’s accuracy-plus-short-iron blueprint. With the odds having already moved from 27/1 to 20/1, Gdula still sees enough meat on the bone given Henley’s elite recent form and perfect statistical fit.

Brandon Gdula said Viktor Hovland is one of the few outright numbers that still looks juicy at East Lake. Hovland leads the field in raw 72-hole scoring over the past five Tour Championships (20 rounds), finishing inside the top-15 every single year. He comes in off a T7 at the BMW where he ranked 2nd in strokes-gained approach, and Gdula stressed that approach play and driving accuracy are the two most predictive stats on the redesigned layout. At 30/1 on FanDuel and a $9,900 DFS salary, Gdula believes betting markets and DFS players are underrating a golfer whose elite irons perfectly fit East Lake’s demands and whose course résumé is the best in the field with Xander Schauffele absent.

Breaking from his usual stance, Bo McBrayer is backing Tommy Fleetwood outright at 14-to-1. He believes East Lake accentuates Fleetwood’s reliable tee-to-green game and minimizes the need for raw distance, calling the Englishman "as good of a fit for this golf course as Scottie Scheffler." In a 30-player event, McBrayer considers 14-1 generous for a golfer whose all-around skill set should translate over four rounds.

Bo McBrayer locked in Scottie Scheffler at +180 and said he would endorse any line that still shows a plus sign. Scheffler leads the tour in every tee-to-green metric and arrives at East Lake in peak form. In McBrayer’s view, getting the dominant player in a 30-man field at any kind of positive price is a rare opportunity and the simplest way to anchor a betting card.

Bo McBrayer said the 50-to-1 number on Justin Rose is too juicy to ignore. Rose has been markedly more consistent than most long-shots and recently flashed elite ball-striking at the FedEx St. Jude. McBrayer concedes Rose’s scrambling numbers are surprisingly poor and his putting is streaky, but in a 30-man field those flaws are baked into the price. If Rose’s irons heat up again, McBrayer believes the Englishman can contend for the win.

Bo McBrayer will not bet Harris English this week, explaining that English grades 27th in his overall model and drops to 29th when filtered to Bermuda tracks around 7,400 yards—East Lake’s profile. Aside from driving accuracy, every strokes-gained category is “atrocious,” leading McBrayer to question how English even locked up an automatic Ryder Cup berth. With no reliable form on Bermuda greens, McBrayer sees English as an easy fade.

Bo McBrayer advised passing on Robert MacIntyre at 30-to-1, noting that MacIntyre ranks 27th of 30 in Good Drives Gained and 24th tee-to-green. McBrayer expects East Lake’s tighter corridors to expose those weaknesses and limit the "green-light" approach shots MacIntyre enjoyed last week. Given the lack of rough forgiveness and MacIntyre’s middling ball-striking, McBrayer sees minimal upside and no reason to invest at the current price.

Bo McBrayer said he prefers Sepp Straka at 30-to-1 over the other mid-tier names because East Lake rewards players who keep the ball in the short grass. Straka’s season-long driving-accuracy profile is one of the best in the field, and McBrayer believes that single skill will create more scoring opportunities on a course where missed fairways are punished. In a 30-man event where value is hard to find, McBrayer thinks Straka’s fairway-finder mentality gives him real win equity at an attractive number.

Bo McBrayer called 60/1 on Shane Lowry ‘the craziest number I’ve seen.’ He views Lowry as a cheaper version of Collin Morikawa who actually putts better on Bermuda. Lowry is straight off the tee, excels with mid- and long-iron approaches, and owns a far superior short game around East Lake’s tricky run-offs. Given the identical ball-striking floor and superior flat-stick upside, McBrayer prefers Lowry’s longer price to Morikawa’s shorter odds and is locking him in as his favorite long-shot outright.

McBrayer grabbed Ben Griffin at 35/1, praising an across-the-board statistical profile: 4th in scrambling, 4th in SG: Par 4, and 5th in putting on Bermuda. Griffin’s breakout season—two wins, a runner-up, nine top-10s, and fourteen top-25s in 27 starts—proves the form. Bo highlighted Sunday resilience at the BMW, where Griffin went triple-bogey, double-bogey, bogey to open but still shot under par after overdosing on creatine pre-round. That mental toughness plus elite short-game metrics makes him a live longshot in a no-cut shootout.

Bo McBrayer loves Sepp Straka at 30/1, ranking him #3 in his model and inside the top-15 of every stat he measured. Straka is #1 in Greens in Regulation Gained, #2 in Birdies or Better, #5 in Bogey Avoidance, and #4 in Driving Accuracy, signaling a profile tailor-made for East Lake’s punishing par-4s. With no cut to derail momentum and the Austrian’s form peaking, McBrayer labeled 30-to-1 a ‘fantastic’ outright number.

Pat Fitzmaurice called Russell Henley a ‘Bermuda specialist’ and said he is automatically on his betting card at East Lake. Henley owns six consecutive top-20 finishes since the Memorial and produced the 4th-best gross score in last year’s Tour Championship. Fitzmaurice emphasized Henley’s long-term dominance on Bermuda greens and tight fairway venues, noting that his accuracy and red-hot putter give him both a secure floor and sneaky win equity in a condensed field.

Although Hovland is 30th in the field in scrambling, Bo McBrayer still prefers betting him over Aberg thanks to elite ball-striking and East Lake comfort. Hovland posted the low gross score here two years ago, the 8th-best total last season, and 4th in 2021 (all without starting strokes). Stat model ranks: 10th in Good Drives Gained, 10th in approach, 3rd in proximity, and 3rd in Birdies or Better. That tee-to-green ceiling, combined with proven course history, convinced McBrayer that Hovland is worth an outright sprinkle or aggressive placement wager despite the short-game red flag.