Seeing no justification for a –250 tag on the slumping Dodgers, Lonte Smith took a stab at Minnesota +180. Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed one run or fewer in four straight and owns better road numbers than most realize, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 3.57 ERA over his last eight includes 13 earned in his last four home outings. L.A. limps in at 2-10 over its last 12, and Smith doubts their bats suddenly wake up. He doesn’t need a masterpiece—just a typical six-inning, two-run performance from Woods Richardson— to make the inflated price worth the risk.

Kenny G gave a cautious nod to Los Angeles at –210, admitting he needs more injury clarity but still preferring the Dodgers over Minnesota. Shohei Otani will again be limited to roughly three innings, yet he carries a 1.00 ERA and offers the Twins only limited exposure before L.A.’s much-maligned bullpen enters. Kenny is uneasy about that relief corps, but he is even less impressed by Minnesota’s 4.19 pen ERA and rookie David Festa’s volatility (5.25 season ERA with two blow-ups in his last five). The Dodgers were just swept by Milwaukee, scoring 5-7-0 runs, yet they still rank 1st in MLB runs and 7th in batting average. Freddie Freeman’s day-to-day wrist status tempers expectations, but Kenny contrasts that with a Twins lineup that is only 20th in runs and owns a 20-31 road record. Dodger Stadium remains a fortress at 33-20, and Kenny believes the combination of Otani’s three clean frames plus L.A.’s offensive ceiling outweighs Festa’s recent improvement. Because the price is steep and the bullpen matchup ugly, he categorizes it as a "slight lean, not a lock," but would rather lay the number than trust Minnesota’s shaky staff.

Just A Bet Outside said Bryce Harper is a priority target for Monday hitter props or DFS lineups. Harper was 12-for-24 before an 0-for-4 blip on Sunday and now draws right-hander Walker “Ferris” Buehler, who is hemorrhaging a .324 batting average and .473 slugging percentage to lefties with an xFIP pushing 5.0. The tout noted Harper’s home split (.310 AVG at Citizens Bank Park) and believes the matchup amplifies his recent hard-contact surge. He expects Philadelphia’s star to stay hot with multiple hits and suggested anchoring a hitter parlay around Harper’s total bases or hit prop.

Eric Pathi warned bettors to stop laying chalk with the Los Angeles Dodgers, calling them the worst team to bet this season at favorite prices. Although Los Angeles owns a 52-32 record when favored, a flat $100 bettor is down $779 backing every Dodgers game because the moneylines are so inflated. Meanwhile, LA is actually profitable as an underdog, posting a 6-7 mark that still yields positive units. Pathi highlighted Milwaukee’s plus-money success as the polar opposite example and reminded listeners that blindly playing public darlings—especially after losing ace Clayton Kershaw—will gut a bankroll. His takeaway: either pass on LA or only take them when oddsmakers hang a dog price.

Malcom Bamford played the Twins team-total under, projecting Minnesota to finish in the 3-run range at Dodger Stadium. Bamford noted the Twins’ brutal 19-31 road record and a lineup that has crashed since June—road runs per game down to 3.7, batting average south of .230, and a bottom-ten walk rate. He expects Shohei Ohtani to give Los Angeles three high-octane innings (he has sequentially ramped from one to three frames in his last two returns) before handing the ball to a rested Dodgers bullpen that owns a top-five xFIP in July. With Minnesota neither taking free passes nor manufacturing steals, Bamford sees few paths to crooked numbers and believes any TT of 4 or higher is worth an immediate under play.

Rockford is fine swallowing the –220 or, better yet, laying –1.5 with Los Angeles against Minnesota call-up David Festa. Festa owns a 5.46 ERA at AAA St. Paul and now debuts in Dodger Stadium versus an offense slashing .280/.354/.486 at home. Shohei Ohtani has been the Dodgers’ most bankable starter since June, boasting a 1.89 ERA and a 36% strikeout rate in his last five Chavez Ravine turns. The Twins are just 19-31 on the road and average barely 3.7 runs per game away from Target Field. With Festa unlikely to work deep and Minnesota’s middle relief shaky, Rockford projected a 6-2 Dodgers win and recommended the run line at –110 or better.

Eric Lindquist backed the Twins +1.5 run line (playable to –115) against Los Angeles. He admitted rookie right-hander David Festa’s underlying numbers are rough – a 10.9 % barrel rate allowed and a .347 xwOBA – but argued that the matchup is closer than the moneyline implies. Minnesota stretched Joe Ryan to 7.0 innings Sunday, which let their bullpen stay mostly fresh even though closer Jhoan Duran made a surprise appearance. On the Dodgers’ side, Lindquist noted that Emmet Sheehan has forced his way into the rotation, meaning L.A. can no longer rely on the old Ohtani-Sheehan piggy-back and will lean on a middling middle-relief corps for length. With Shohei Ohtani still only a DH, Lindquist expects the game to settle into a bullpen battle where Minnesota’s leverage arms (Duran, Stewart, Alcala) match up well enough to keep it within a run most nights. Because of that bullpen edge and the attractive price, he preferred the +1.5 run line to a long-shot Twins moneyline ticket.