Bill Harrelson’s third play is Carlos Correa UNDER 0.5 runs scored at Colorado. Correa has failed to cross the plate in 8 of his last 10 games and four straight overall. He is under in 14 of his last 20 (70%) and has scored in only 30 of 82 games this season (63% hit rate on the under). On the road he has produced a run in just one of his last five, averaging 0.2 runs per game. While Correa owns some success off left-hander Kyle Freeland, Harrelson trusts the broader trend: sportsbooks across the market are shading the same way, Correa is cold, and historical data shows the under cashing nearly two-thirds of the time.

It’s The Final Round anchored both of his suggested parlays with Kyle Freeland over 2.5 earned runs allowed. Freeland has been shelled for three or more runs in 75 % of his home starts this season, and Coors Field remains the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. Right-handed hitters are batting .327 against him overall and .367 in Denver, and the matchup with a hot Minnesota lineup featuring Byron Buxton only amplifies the risk. Given those splits and the altitude boost, the tout expects another rough outing and is confident enough to make this prop the common leg in both his minus-money and plus-money parlays.

It’s The Final Round said Byron Buxton is his lone hitting target for Friday and wants action on the over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120 on DraftKings) or the over 1.5 Total Bases (+108). The tout laid out a laundry list of reasons: 1) opposing left-hander Kyle Freeland is getting tattooed by righties, allowing a .327 average overall and .367 at home; 2) Buxton massacres southpaws with a .321 average this season and rolled into the break hitting .692 with a homer, three RBI and four runs in the final series; 3) Coors Field’s altitude gives hitters a 20-30 % boost in hit probability, and an AI query spit out a 40-50 % chance Buxton produces an extra-base hit or homer; 4) Buxton is 1-for-1 with a homer off Freeland lifetime and owns a .346 average with two bombs in eight career games in Denver; 5) he has cleared 1.5 H+R+RBI in seven of his last 10 and 1.5 Total Bases in six of eight leading into the break. All told, Jordan likes Buxton as the centerpiece of his card and a strong one-off for Underdog slips or DFS builds.

Malcom Bamford skipped the side and instead attacked a Colorado team-total over (number not posted at recording). He cited Chris Paddack’s 15.7% HR/FB rate and ugly splits versus left-handed hitters, who own a .298 average against him. Coors Field only amplifies that weakness, and Bamford expects Bud Black to roll out a lefty-heavy lineup featuring Ryan McMahon, Michael Toglia and Charlie Blackmon. By focusing on the Rockies’ offense alone, he avoids the equally shaky Freeland and the two bullpens. Bamford projected four runs as a conservative baseline and sees a realistic path to six if Paddack’s fastball command disappears like it did in Chicago.

Targeting Chris Paddack’s road woes, Lonte Smith played the Rockies first-five moneyline at +140. Paddack owns a 5.50 ERA away from Target Field and just surrendered six runs to the Cubs before the break. Kyle Freeland has quietly limited four playoff offenses—including Boston, Houston and Philadelphia—to three or fewer earned in consecutive Coors Field starts, giving Colorado a puncher’s chance early. Smith prefers isolating the opening five frames to avoid Colorado’s combustible bullpen (6.02 ERA). With Paddack’s 43% hard-hit rate and .298 opponent average to lefties, Smith expects Ryan McMahon and fellow southpaws to jump him before Minnesota can turn to its relief corps.