On Underdog Fantasy, Billy Ward built a two-leg pick’em card fading Fiorot’s strike output and backing Shevchenko’s overall scoring. He played Fiorot LOWER than 87.5 significant strikes, noting Shevchenko has never eaten 88 sig strikes in 18 UFC bouts. He paired that with Shevchenko HIGHER than 51.5 fantasy points, projecting the Bullet for at least three takedowns and control time that pile up DFS scoring. Ward reasoned that if Fiorot’s output is suppressed, it is almost certainly because Valentina is dictating with wrestling—creating positive correlation in the slip.

Billy Ward recommended hunting Valentina Shevchenko Round 4-5/decision props at +155 or better after the early plus-140 moneyline evaporated. Ward argued both women usually dominate via raw athleticism, but Saturday they finally face a peer. With neither owning a huge technical grappling edge, he expects a drawn-out kickboxing match in which Shevchenko’s 78 minutes of championship-round experience and historically elite gas tank become decisive. Fiorot has never absorbed 88 sig strikes and has gone 25 minutes only once, so Ward prefers Valentina in the deep waters rather than at pick’em odds pre-fight. He will also monitor live markets, planning to fire if Fiorot’s fast start inflates the Bullet to +175 or longer.

Sean Zerillo said he is laying the short juice on Manon Fiorot at –125 pre-fight, then looking to flip to Valentina Shevchenko live after Round 1. Zerillo expects Fiorot’s trademark blitzes and 6.8 sig-strikes-per-minute pace to steal the early frames, noting she dropped 170 sig strikes on Erin Blanchfield and looked visibly larger in that five-rounder. He also trusts Fiorot’s distance striking to expose Shevchenko’s declining output, which cratered in the Grasso rematch. However, Zerillo warned that Shevchenko carries the superior wrestling and five-round experience—advantages that tend to surface once adrenaline dumps. If the first round is mostly stand-up, he anticipates a swollen in-fight price on the ex-champ and will buy back then, effectively creating a free-roll middle.

Danny Brasco sided with an "And NEW" outcome, touting Manon Fiorot’s southpaw kick-boxing and elite 93 percent takedown defense as kryptonite for Shevchenko. He labeled Fiorot the best pure striker Shevchenko has faced outside of Amanda Nunes, highlighting side-kicks and range control that will force the champion to operate at an uncomfortable distance. Brasco praised Fiorot’s clinch knees, Muay Thai plum, and proven five-round gas tank—citing her strong Round 5 against Blanchfield where she ate a head-kick yet stayed composed. Because Fiorot can stuff shots and pick at Valentina from range, Brasco thinks she edges a competitive decision to bring France its first UFC title.

Gippers Picks recommended taking Valentina Shevchenko by decision at +215 rather than her +110 money-line, calling it the obvious value pocket. He argued Shevchenko is the craftier wrestler than Erin Blanchfield and will rely on perfectly timed double- and single-legs in open space rather than exhausting body-lock attempts. If Shevchenko can bank one of the first three rounds, Gippers sees the former champ stealing either Round 4 or 5 once Fiorot’s pace dips, resulting in a tight 48-47 scorecard. He also sprinkled a future on Fiorot to be champion by December 31 at +225 as a hedge, believing the immediate rematch window is small.

Josh Nagel said he is backing Manon Fiorot to lift the belt, stressing that her overall physicality and momentum make this her "date with destiny." Nagel noted Fiorot has "run through the competition," pointing to dominant wins over Erin Blanchfield and Rose Namajunas as evidence she is ready for this leap. While acknowledging Valentina Shevchenko’s iconic résumé, he argued the champion’s aggression and durability have slipped. By contrast, Fiorot’s size, athleticism, and diverse skill-set make her a nightmare stylistic matchup. He is comfortable fading Shevchenko as a slight underdog and will bet Fiorot straight, expecting her to outpoint the veteran over five rounds.

Danny Vithlani sided with underdog Manon Fiorot to become the new flyweight queen. He argued the French-Canadian will enjoy a size edge and owns the best pure kickboxing Valentina Shevchenko has seen since Amanda Nunes. Fiorot’s 93 % takedown defense, clinch strength and side-kick-driven range management should neutralize Shevchenko’s wrestling attack that stifled Alexa Grasso. Vithlani added that the 37-year-old champion may be slipping on the feet, pointing to a split-decision escape versus Taila Santos and her 1-1-1 trilogy with Grasso. With a hometown Montreal crowd behind her, he believes Fiorot controls distance and out-points the bullet over five rounds.

Brian Campbell backed Valentina Shevchenko to defend her flyweight title despite being a rare underdog. He believes Shevchenko’s fully rounded game—elite kickboxing, clinch judo and well-timed offensive wrestling—answers the distance-control karate style of Manon Fiorot. Campbell acknowledged Fiorot’s surge through former title challengers and her physicality at range but argued Shevchenko’s championship experience, grappling edge and ability to mix takedowns will break the challenger’s rhythm in a fight he views as 50-50 on paper. He expects the veteran to edge the scorecards and prove odds-makers wrong once more.

Bisping predicted Valentina Shevchenko will shut down Manon Fiorot with well-timed doubles and top control. He reminded viewers the "Bullet" compiled eight title defenses and has "completed all the rubies" on her belt. Fiorot’s 12-1 mark and kickboxing acumen impressed him—she did beat Rose Namajunas—but he questioned whether she can stop Shevchenko’s takedowns for 25 minutes. Expect Shevchenko to abandon an extended striking duel, land reactive shots, and hunt a ground-and-pound TKO or cruise to a lopsided decision. Bisping’s advice: back Shevchenko by any wrestling-centric method.

DFS Army labeled Valentina Shevchenko a core GPP target at just $7,700. They pointed out that Shevchenko owns 13 UFC wins—the same number as Fiorot’s entire pro fight total—and remains one of the highest per-minute scorers across all weight classes, eclipsing 100 DK points in four of her last five wins. At age 37 she still logged eight takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control time against Alexa Grasso, proving the wrestling is intact. Fiorot, by contrast, is almost as old (35) yet delivers modest DraftKings totals outside her upset of Erin Blanchfield: 54 vs Rose Namajunas, 74 vs Katlyn Chookagian, 81 and 87 in earlier decisions. She is primarily a distance striker and averages just 0.33 takedowns per round. The hosts expect Shevchenko to mix in takedowns and exploit five-round scoring, noting that stacking the fight in cash is viable but they will be "100 percent" Shevchenko in non-stack GPP builds. They compared the salary discount to getting Alexander Volkanovski cheap against Diego Lopes and see a realistic 110-point ceiling if Valentina lands 4–5 takedowns plus five rounds of pace.

Betss reiterated his pick of Manon Fiorot but is holding off until the line flips to plus money (currently ‑120). He conceded that Fiorot’s 90% takedown defense looks slightly overrated on tape because most attempts came from smaller or one-dimensional grapplers like Tabitha Ricci and Mayra Bueno Silva. Still, Betss trusts Fiorot’s size and strength after watching her hoist Erin Blanchfield and believes Shevchenko, who was taken down three times by Taila Santos, can be surprised by counter trips. He projects the striking to favor Fiorot 60/40 but anticipates slow, chess-match stretches where Shevchenko probes for entries, keeping totals low. Because both athletes possess some offensive wrestling upside, Betss expects a tight 48-47 type scorecard and will only invest once he can grab Fiorot +100 or better, with decision props as secondary exposure.

Betss is betting Manon Fiorot to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko and may escalate his stake if plus money reappears. He pointed out that Shevchenko has absorbed 225 significant strikes in her last two fights and now leans on two takedowns per bout to mask slowing footwork. Fiorot stuffs 90 % of takedowns, is the physically larger athlete, and just embarrassed Erin Blanchfield on the feet by doubling her strike output. Betss sees Fiorot winning most kickboxing exchanges with her south-paw 1-2 and side-kicks, stuffing desperation level changes and coasting to a 49-46 type decision. He will have action on Fiorot ML (+135 was his trigger) and is considering Fiorot −3.5 points or decision props if those open better than even money.

Tim Welch chose Valentina Shevchenko to beat Manon Fiorot by decision. He pointed to Shevchenko’s previous nine-fight win streak, her blend of explosive striking and well-timed takedowns, and the championship-level poise she displayed in three straight bouts with Alexa Grasso. Although Fiorot rides a seven-fight UFC win streak, Welch thinks Shevchenko’s overall skill set and fight IQ let her control range, mix in grappling when needed, and bank rounds en route to another title defense.

Welch is taking the under on 81.5 significant strikes for Manon Fiorot on PrizePicks. He reasoned that 25 minutes is a massive ask to land that many against Valentina Shevchenko, who historically mixes takedowns and clinch trips to slow opponents’ output. With Shevchenko likely to turn the bout into a full MMA fight rather than a pure kickboxing match, Welch doubts Fiorot will find the space or volume to touch 82 sig-strikes.

Jeff Fox also sided with Fiorot, saying Shevchenko ‘is not the fighter she was.’ Fox pointed out the former P4P queen barely squeaked by Alexa Grasso and has become increasingly risk-averse. Meanwhile Fiorot is undefeated in seven UFC bouts, doubles her opponents’ output, and continues to improve technically. Because neither woman has been finished at flyweight—and Fiorot has adopted a more measured approach as competition has stiffened—Fox expects five full rounds. He recommends pairing Fiorot’s –140 moneyline with the decision prop at roughly +125 to squeeze extra value from the pick.

Gumby Vreeland picked Manon Fiorot at –140 to outpoint Valentina Shevchenko. He stressed Fiorot’s excellent first-layer defense and even better get-ups, noting Erin Blanchfield could not keep her down for more than a second. If Shevchenko’s takedowns fail to stick, the fight becomes pure kickboxing, where Fiorot lands nearly twice as many significant strikes (about 7.0 per minute) and owns a +2.49 differential, versus Shevchenko’s +1.16. Vreeland also cited wear-and-tear: both women are 36, but Shevchenko has 20 years of pro combat, whereas Fiorot’s 12-fight win streak has been almost damage-free. Expecting a razor-close 48-47 type fight, he recommends Fiorot by decision or even the split-decision prop for a juicy return.

Closing the Cycle Parlay, Betss played Manon Fiorot by decision in the five-round co-main, projecting a 49-46 scorecard over the perceived women’s MMA GOAT, Valentina Shevchenko. Betss trusts Fiorot’s stick-and-move kickboxing style, volume output, and cardio to win extended striking exchanges while avoiding the big moments that typically sway judges toward Shevchenko. He noted Fiorot’s perfect 6-0 UFC record, four wins coming on the cards, and believes the champion’s age and recent dip in pace give the French contender the edge in a point-fighting affair.

Betss reiterated his pick of Manon Fiorot but is holding off until the line flips to plus money (currently ‑120). He conceded that Fiorot’s 90% takedown defense looks slightly overrated on tape because most attempts came from smaller or one-dimensional grapplers like Tabitha Ricci and Mayra Bueno Silva. Still, Betss trusts Fiorot’s size and strength after watching her hoist Erin Blanchfield and believes Shevchenko, who was taken down three times by Taila Santos, can be surprised by counter trips. He projects the striking to favor Fiorot 60/40 but anticipates slow, chess-match stretches where Shevchenko probes for entries, keeping totals low. Because both athletes possess some offensive wrestling upside, Betss expects a tight 48-47 type scorecard and will only invest once he can grab Fiorot +100 or better, with decision props as secondary exposure.

Betss is betting Manon Fiorot to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko and may escalate his stake if plus money reappears. He pointed out that Shevchenko has absorbed 225 significant strikes in her last two fights and now leans on two takedowns per bout to mask slowing footwork. Fiorot stuffs 90 % of takedowns, is the physically larger athlete, and just embarrassed Erin Blanchfield on the feet by doubling her strike output. Betss sees Fiorot winning most kickboxing exchanges with her south-paw 1-2 and side-kicks, stuffing desperation level changes and coasting to a 49-46 type decision. He will have action on Fiorot ML (+135 was his trigger) and is considering Fiorot −3.5 points or decision props if those open better than even money.

Tim Welch chose Valentina Shevchenko to beat Manon Fiorot by decision. He pointed to Shevchenko’s previous nine-fight win streak, her blend of explosive striking and well-timed takedowns, and the championship-level poise she displayed in three straight bouts with Alexa Grasso. Although Fiorot rides a seven-fight UFC win streak, Welch thinks Shevchenko’s overall skill set and fight IQ let her control range, mix in grappling when needed, and bank rounds en route to another title defense.

Welch is taking the under on 81.5 significant strikes for Manon Fiorot on PrizePicks. He reasoned that 25 minutes is a massive ask to land that many against Valentina Shevchenko, who historically mixes takedowns and clinch trips to slow opponents’ output. With Shevchenko likely to turn the bout into a full MMA fight rather than a pure kickboxing match, Welch doubts Fiorot will find the space or volume to touch 82 sig-strikes.

Jeff Fox also sided with Fiorot, saying Shevchenko ‘is not the fighter she was.’ Fox pointed out the former P4P queen barely squeaked by Alexa Grasso and has become increasingly risk-averse. Meanwhile Fiorot is undefeated in seven UFC bouts, doubles her opponents’ output, and continues to improve technically. Because neither woman has been finished at flyweight—and Fiorot has adopted a more measured approach as competition has stiffened—Fox expects five full rounds. He recommends pairing Fiorot’s –140 moneyline with the decision prop at roughly +125 to squeeze extra value from the pick.

Gumby Vreeland picked Manon Fiorot at –140 to outpoint Valentina Shevchenko. He stressed Fiorot’s excellent first-layer defense and even better get-ups, noting Erin Blanchfield could not keep her down for more than a second. If Shevchenko’s takedowns fail to stick, the fight becomes pure kickboxing, where Fiorot lands nearly twice as many significant strikes (about 7.0 per minute) and owns a +2.49 differential, versus Shevchenko’s +1.16. Vreeland also cited wear-and-tear: both women are 36, but Shevchenko has 20 years of pro combat, whereas Fiorot’s 12-fight win streak has been almost damage-free. Expecting a razor-close 48-47 type fight, he recommends Fiorot by decision or even the split-decision prop for a juicy return.

Closing the Cycle Parlay, Betss played Manon Fiorot by decision in the five-round co-main, projecting a 49-46 scorecard over the perceived women’s MMA GOAT, Valentina Shevchenko. Betss trusts Fiorot’s stick-and-move kickboxing style, volume output, and cardio to win extended striking exchanges while avoiding the big moments that typically sway judges toward Shevchenko. He noted Fiorot’s perfect 6-0 UFC record, four wins coming on the cards, and believes the champion’s age and recent dip in pace give the French contender the edge in a point-fighting affair.

Bookmakers opened Valentina Shevchenko a slight underdog, and The Weasle believes that line is wrong—picking the former champ by decision. He sees a massive speed gulf: Shevchenko’s sniper counters, especially the right hook, are tailor-made for Manon Fiorot’s forward blitzes where she habitually raises her chin (exposed in the Erin Blanchfield fight). Both women are southpaws, which neutralizes their customary open-stance body kicks, but Shevchenko’s wrestling gives her an extra card to play. If exchanges stall, she can hit level changes or chain trip throws that test Fiorot’s clinch defense. While Fiorot is the physically larger flyweight with strong hips, The Weasle expects Shevchenko to mix takedowns, land the cleaner counters, and bank at least three rounds for a 48-47 type victory—making the dog money on Valentina a worthwhile stab.

Cody Saftic hammered home the numeric case for Valentina: in 16 UFC appearances she has landed at least one takedown on 15 opponents and has secured takedowns in 11 straight fights. Even in the Grasso rematch she went 8-for-12 on attempts, proving the wrestling is still there. Fiorot, meanwhile, has faced just nine combined attempts across six UFC bouts and stuffed them against smaller women like Tabatha Ricci and Kaitlyn Chookagian—hardly a confidence-building sample. Saftic trusts Shevchenko’s elite ring IQ to lean on that historical success, chain wrestle and chip away with top control, especially in championship rounds where Fiorot’s output historically dips. With the "Dog or Pass" mantra guiding him, Cody grabbed Shevchenko money-line at +118, calling the former champ “first-ballot HOF value you almost never get.”

Paul Shaughnessy admitted slight concern that Fiorot’s power could replicate Alexa Grasso’s knockdown, but still locked in Shevchenko at +118. He emphasized that Rose Namajunas went 0-for-6 on takedowns in her 125-pound debut and still kept the striking tight, suggesting Fiorot’s defensive resume is overrated. Shaughnessy expects Valentina’s trademark body-lock trips to land once she gets her hands clasped, turning the bout into a minute-winning clinch affair reminiscent of the first Grasso fight (where Valentina led most of the way). Given Shevchenko’s experience against every elite woman from Amanda Nunes down, Paul simply “cannot pass on plus money for the most decorated flyweight ever,” projecting a competitive but ultimately clear decision for the former champ.

Michael Iurato is betting Valentina at plus money, arguing that the "Fiorot is too big" narrative is overstated. He pointed out that Fiorot actually disengages as much as she bullies, choosing her spots instead of imposing nonstop pressure. While the Frenchwoman did earn a fresh BJJ black belt, Iurato reminded listeners that "all black belts are not created equal" and that Shevchenko’s top-side grappling has looked dominant whenever she chooses to use it. The path, in his view, is obvious: smart cage IQ, body-lock trips, and extended top control to expose Fiorot’s untested guard and late-fight gas tank. Given Shevchenko’s rarity as a +118 underdog (only the third time in her UFC run), Iurato labeled it a mandatory wager and expects Valentina to drag the fight into deep waters where her tricks outweigh Fiorot’s limited plan-B.

Dan Tom doubled-down on his earlier Valentina call but clarified how he is structuring the ticket: straight Shevchenko money-line at +118, then a smaller hedge parlaying Over 4.5 rounds (-310) with a prelim favorite. Tom reiterated Fiorot’s cardio red flags—she slowed in both the Blanchfield and Namajunas bouts despite only going 15 minutes—while Shevchenko owns a dozen five-rounders and has never gassed. He trusts the ex-champ’s ability to match Manon’s physicality, force clinches, and sprinkle takedowns that bleed clock. Because neither woman has been finished in the UFC and the total is already juiced, Tom sees the Over as a near lock; tying it to Valentina creates a plus-EV, low-variance position that still pays if Fiorot survives but loses on points.

Dan Tom backed Valentina Shevchenko at +118, insisting the market is over-reacting to her age and a pair of Alexa Grasso fights. Tom highlighted that this is a rare southpaw-versus-southpaw title bout, a stance matchup that historically narrows striking gaps and favors seasoned counter strikers like Shevchenko. On re-watch, he felt Valentina’s footwork, lead-hand control, and left-cross timing actually sharpened across the Grasso trilogy, while Manon Fiorot’s volume edge is smaller than raw stats suggest (only about 1.5 strikes landed per minute). More importantly, no one has tested Fiorot’s ground game; she coasted against an undersized Erin Blanchfield and still showed late-round fatigue in a three-rounder. Tom believes Shevchenko can match the Frenchwoman’s athleticism, mix in reactive doubles, and bank top-control in championship rounds. With the total juiced to over 4.5 (-310), he prefers Shevchenko by decision at +225 but is happy grabbing the plus-money money-line on the former champ.

Millz Young said the market is overrating Manon Fiorot after she was steamed from ‑120 to roughly ‑150, making Valentina Shevchenko a rare plus-money underdog he is eager to back. Millz expects Shevchenko’s trademark four-to-six-strike combinations—always punctuated by a chopping leg kick—to win the optics battle against Fiorot’s single shots. He also likes Shevchenko’s ability to mix in reactive takedowns, predicting she will time one of Fiorot’s body kicks, plant her on the mat, and bank control time whenever a round is close. Millz questioned whether Fiorot can maintain her output for five rounds because she has never been pushed by a championship-level opponent. Suggested bets: Shevchenko money line at plus money, with a sprinkle on Shevchenko by Decision for a bigger payday.

Bedtime MMA predicted Valentina Shevchenko will defeat Manon Fiorot by clear unanimous decision (49-46, with a possible 48-47 card). He said the early odds that made Fiorot the favorite were a market mistake, pointing out that her marquee wins came over smaller or under-performing opponents—Rose Namajunas at strawweight, an out-of-division Mayra Bueno Silva, and a version of Erin Blanchfield who "looked like a drunk girl trying to get into the club." Tape study convinced him Fiorot is no elite kick-boxer: she holds her chin high, drops her hands, and repeatedly leans left, openings for Shevchenko’s check right hook or signature lead-side head kick. While conceding Fiorot’s size, power and proven takedown defense will allow some clinch stalling, Bedtime expects the former champ’s more diverse arsenal—sniping counters, spinning kicks, and occasional reactive doubles—to control the scoring. Because Valentina can dictate where the fight takes place and land the more damaging shots, the tout views anything other than a comfortable Shevchenko win as a major upset.

MMA Guru said the books are giving away money on Valentina Shevchenko as a slight underdog and is betting both the money-line and the decision prop. He argued this is Fiorot’s first five-rounder while Shevchenko has logged nine championship bouts, so the Kyrgyz southpaw owns a massive experience edge in pacing and round management. Guru pointed out that Fiorot looked hittable and sloppy in her last technical striking match—against Rose Namajunas, who broke her hand early yet still kept the fight razor-close. By contrast, Shevchenko just dominated Alexa Grasso with clean boxing and distance control, proving the post-title-loss ‘drop-off’ narrative is overblown. Shevchenko actually outreaches the taller Frenchwoman and, according to Guru, can snipe single counters, slip outside the side-kick, and bank the later rounds once Fiorot’s volume dips. Expect 48-47 or 49-46 scorecards for the former champ, making the + money on her decision line a ‘steal.’

MMA Guru said bettors should smash the PrizePicks line of 75.5 significant strikes for Valentina Shevchenko, taking the “more” side. He expects the title fight to reach the championship rounds, pointing out that Shevchenko normally tops 20 significant strikes per round in longer bouts and has averaged 117 landed strikes across her last three five-rounders. Guru also noted Fiorot’s historically solid takedown defense will keep the fight standing, forcing a pure kickboxing match where Shevchenko’s pace shines. In his words, a full 25-minute striking fight means 80-plus landed shots is the most likely outcome.

Kunath advised betting Manon Fiorot by decision to unseat Valentina Shevchenko. He praised Fiorot’s 93 % takedown defense, 5'7" frame, and physical strength—calling her ‘maxed-out’ for 125 lbs—and referenced her five-round shutout of Erin Blanchfield that erased concerns raised by a lower landing rate versus an injured Rose Namajunas. Fiorot’s nonstop volume and pop, combined with the ability to dictate range, were contrasted with Shevchenko’s apparent decline: an aging body, a long list of camps and media obligations, and an increased reliance on wrestling illustrated by her Grasso fights. Kunath doubts Shevchenko can consistently ground or clinch a noticeably stronger Fiorot, and even suggested Fiorot could surprise with her own takedown. He reminded listeners that Grasso dropped Shevchenko—something rare for the Mexican striker—and believes a bigger, harder-hitting Fiorot will have even more success on the feet. Expecting betting money to tighten the odds toward the champ, Kunath still labeled Fiorot the play of the week, projecting her to win on the scorecards and claim the flyweight title.