Michael Bisping sided with Kevin Holland to edge Vicente Luque in what oddsmakers list as a pick-em welterweight opener. Holland’s lightning-fast turnaround—just ten weeks after dominating Gunnar Nelson—signals a level of focus Bisping says was missing when the Texan used to bounce between weight classes. At a rangy 81-inch reach, Holland will be six inches longer than Luque and owns the sharper jab/straight he showcased in London. Add in an underrated black-belt ground game that neutralized Nelson and the power that slept Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Bisping believes Holland can dictate range and steal scrambles. Luque still has dangerous darts (1-R sub of Renato Rimbos) but three losses in his last five, including knockouts by Joaquin Buckley and Geoff Neal, raise durability concerns. Bisping’s betting lean is Holland moneyline with a sprinkle on decision because Luque’s iron chin usually drags fights deep.

Despite public perception that Luque is shop-worn, Bedtime MMA reminded listeners he’s only 33 and still sharper than Kevin Holland everywhere. On the feet Luque’s leg-kicking game will chew up Holland’s long stance, and in pocket exchanges the Brazilian’s tighter overhand should win. Grappling is the insurance policy: Luque can complete takedowns and ride half-guard whereas Holland is unlikely to put Luque on his back. The tout dismissed the Buckley KO narrative, arguing Buckley is simply better than Holland. He predicted a clear Luque decision—expect Holland to complain robbery while having spent long stretches pinned and eating elbows. Bettors should target Luque moneyline or Luque by decision props.

Daniel "Gumby" Vreeland echoed the Luque call, stressing that Holland’s defensive wrestling (47% stuffed in the UFC) and occasional urge to shoot his own takedowns could play straight into Luque’s trademark D’Arce/Anaconda series. Gumby noted Luque’s only recent losses came against elite, well-rounded welterweights (Belal Muhammad, Geoff Neal) whereas Holland is one-dimensional and often prioritizes entertainment over strategy. If Holland decides to grapple or simply gets planted, Gumby sees Luque’s submission arsenal ending things quickly, making the +230 price far too wide.

Jeff Fox (aka Kyzer Del Busto) advised taking the +230 on Vicente Luque, arguing Holland is simply too hard to trust at a steep -270. Fox pointed to Holland’s chronically poor takedown defense, his willingness to accept guard and burn minutes off the clock, plus a history of puzzling in-fight decisions. Luque owns a clear path on the mat (9 submissions, +0.17 strike differential, and superior takedown accuracy) and still packs power if it turns into a brawl. Fox expects Luque to change levels early, force Holland to work off his back, and hunt a finish rather than trade in space.

Kunath predicted Kevin Holland will starch Vicente Luque, advising bettors to target the KO/TKO prop. He highlighted Holland’s four-inch reach edge, faster hands, and heavier single-strike power while noting Luque’s defensive flaws—stationary head, slower feet, and willingness to absorb punishment in pocket exchanges. Kunath pointed to Luque’s recent damage-laden wars and back-to-back knockouts from Jeff Neal and Joaquin Buckley as clear evidence the 33-year-old’s legendary chin has cracked. Because Luque rarely wrestles and Holland owns the length advantage, Kunath expects a range-kickboxing match that heavily favors the “Trailblazer.” Play Holland by KO or fight-doesn’t-go-the-distance at plus money.