Sean Zerillo labeled Viviane Araujo a live underdog at +210 in a women’s flyweight match he expects to hit the cards (-600 to go to decision). Araujo is the larger athlete with a three-inch reach advantage and throws more volume at distance (5.6 significant strikes landed per minute vs. 5.0 for Cortez). Although Cortez is the cleaner boxer by differential (+0.5 per minute), she never pushes pace, which mitigates Araujo’s well-known cardio fade after round one. Zerillo noted both women attempt takedowns at similar rates, but Araujo owns the better defensive mark and should be at least as likely to secure top position. He thinks Araujo wins the first 10 minutes on activity and physicality, leaving judges to decide whether Cortez’s probable late control outweighs that work. Because of the divisional tendency for tight scorecards and the durable profiles of both fighters, Zerillo is simply taking the plus-money side on the money-line and hoping the judges reward Araujo’s early output.

Matty Betss told listeners the market is sleeping on violence in Cortez-Araujo. Books are hanging +350 on ‘fight not to go the distance’ even though Viviani Araujo owns seven finishes in 13 wins and Cortez has six career stoppages herself. Matty pointed out that public bettors reflex-bet women’s MMA overs, but these two throw with intent and Araujo’s cardio routinely falls off a cliff late, creating finish equity for either side. He also flagged eye-popping alternate numbers: Cortez Inside-the-Distance 9-to-1 and Cortez KO 22-to-1, calling them worth sprinkles because “ladies are due for a finish.” In short, he is fading the narrative that every women’s flyweight fight hits the cards.

Public money has drifted toward Viviani Araujo, but Matty Betss still sides with Tracy Cortez by decision. He sees this as a step-down in competition after Cortez held her own in a 2023 decision loss to Rose Namajunas and previously beat the physically imposing Jasmine Jasudavicius. Matty expects Cortez’s blend of solid boxing volume and chain wrestling to bank minutes, while Vivi must land power shots early to sway the judges. Araujo’s cardio fade and Cortez’s historical propensity for control-heavy fights pushed Matty to ride the favorite on the cards rather than chase a finish in a women’s flyweight matchup that profiles as low-volatility.

Dan Tom echoed the Cortez side, arguing it is impossible to back a sub-135-pound fighter who routinely gasses. Araujo fades hard and has been dropped in multiple bouts, a disastrous combo against the sharper version of Cortez who showed a clean left-hook and tighter boxing in her win over Jasmine Jasudavicius. Cortez is still only 30 and has been off for a year, so Tom expects another bump in skill. With Araujo’s cardio cliff and defensive lapses, Tom predicts Cortez takes over late and wins a clear decision. He is staying out of the market himself but told listeners that if they must bet, Cortez by decision (+100 to +110) carries better value than the -600 over 2.5 or the -260 money-line.

Madlab Michael Lurato projected a late grind-out win for Tracy Cortez, noting Viviane Araujo’s familiar pattern of starting fast then falling off a cliff after seven or eight minutes. Lurato expects Araujo’s early speed and footwork to bank the opening exchanges, but once the Brazilian’s gas tank begins to sputter, Cortez’s incremental pressure, clinch work, and control-time accumulation should flip momentum. He likened the matchup to Josh Van’s tendency of giving away the back half of fights, forecasting Cortez to ‘chip her way in, run downhill,’ and steal the final two rounds en route to a 29-28 scorecard. While Lurato has no betting exposure himself, he advised anyone who must act to restrict plays to Cortez by decision (around –110) because a finish is unlikely and the -260 money-line feels rich for a low-output grinder.

MMA Guru backed Tracy Cortez to win a razor-thin decision, stressing how often women’s flyweight bouts wind up 29-28 either way. He argued that in a competitive fight the promotion and judges are far more likely to side with Cortez, the better marketed fighter and the betting favorite. Guru sees Cortez’s cleaner boxing and her résumé-boosting win over Jasmine Jasudavicius tipping close rounds, while Viviane Araujo’s repeated failures against top-5 talent (losses to Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva) signal a hard ceiling. Although Araujo may attempt more takedowns, Guru doubts she can separate herself on the cards. He advised looking at the Cortez by decision prop—or even a split-decision sprinkle—rather than laying the full money-line juice.

Brian Campbell advised laying the juice on Tracy Cortez by decision at –225 rather than her –250 money-line. Campbell noted that women’s flyweight bouts finish only 29% of the time and both fighters have been stopped just once in their careers, each back in 2017. Cortez is coming off her first UFC loss—a five-round lesson from Rose Namajunas that Campbell believes sharpened her cardio and grit—while 38-year-old Araujo has dropped three of her last five and has consistently struggled when facing ranked opponents (losses to Natalia Silva, Amanda Ribas, Alexa Grasso and Katlyn Chookagian). Campbell sees Cortez’s wrestling pressure overwhelming a fading Araujo and expects the judges’ scorecards to be read after 15 minutes, making the decision prop the “obvious outcome” with a slightly better price.

Kunath recommended betting Tracy Cortez straight and sprinkling her Round-2/3 TKO props. He highlighted Cortez’s youth advantage, division-best chain-wrestling and disciplined top control. Viviane Araujo is physically stronger but historically blows through her gas tank once forced to fight off her back (55% bottom-position get-up rate). Kunath expects Cortez to abandon prolonged striking exchanges, shoot doubles early, and make Araujo work for every under-hook. By mid-fight those scrambles should drain Araujo’s arms, setting up Cortez to pass to mount and rain elbows—potentially earning her first UFC stoppage and a statement after a long layoff.

Gumby Vreeland labeled Tracy Cortez –225 as one of his favorite betting spots on UFC 317. Cortez is 11-2 overall, 6-1 in the UFC and seven years younger than Viviane Araujo. She owns superior strike volume and a +0.70 differential while leaning on clinch pressure and trip-takedowns that translate up a weight class. Vreeland highlighted that Araujo’s takedown accuracy has slipped below 45% and her once-elite athleticism is fading; the Brazilian is just 3-4 in her last seven outings and now gets bullied in the pocket rather than doing the bullying. Cortez’s only recent loss came against Rose Namajunas, and Gumby argued that fight exaggerated public skepticism because Rose’s jab and movement make everyone look bad. Expect Cortez to march forward, pin Vivi to the fence, and rack up control time en route to a clear decision. He is comfortable using her as a parlay anchor or playing the decision prop for extra juice.

Monk advised almost full fade on Tracy Cortez at $8,900, calling her DFS profile "dog-shit." Cortez averages just 85 DraftKings points per win, has cracked the optimal only once in five UFC fights, and has never exceeded an 80-point ceiling except versus non-roster foe Melissa Gatto. Her salary is $600 above her career average and the fight is −550 to go the distance, which kills finishing upside. Viviane Araujo’s 80 % takedown defence likely neutralises Cortez’s wrestling, forcing a low-volume striking match where Cortez lands fewer than 4.0 strikes per minute. Although Monk picks Cortez to win, he insists the price cannot be justified; the only semi-viable play is Araujo as a $7,300 punt for salary relief, but even she averages a meagre 81 points per victory. Net takeaway: get way underweight on this fight and use salary elsewhere.

Bedtime MMA reluctantly picked Tracy Cortez to edge Viviane Araujo on the cards, predicting a possible 29-28 split decision. He argued Cortez is the younger, more explosive athlete and coming off a win over Jasmine Jasudavicius, whereas Araujo is "pretty old for the weight class" and has lost most of her big step-up fights. He joked about Cortez’s "baddie plot armor" influencing close scorecards, hinting that bettors might target Cortez ML or decision props rather than lay heavy juice on either fighter inside the distance.