Eric Lindquist said the first wager he locked in for Wednesday was the full-game total over 8.5 runs in the early Kansas City matchup headlined by Seth Lugo. Lindquist noted Lugo’s profile has been trending the wrong direction: a 45.9 percent hard-hit rate and a .494 expected slugging percentage allowed. In Lindquist’s words, “no way, no how” is he fading an over when a pitcher is giving up that kind of premium contact in a day game at Kauffman Stadium, a park that historically plays much livelier under mid-afternoon heat and humidity. The handicap is strictly numbers-driven—Lugo is letting hitters square everything up, and Lindquist expects both lineups to generate crooked numbers before the bullpens even enter.

Kenny G recommended laying -170 with Kansas City. Michael Wacha owns a 3.36 ERA and has surrendered just six earned runs across his last five outings, including eight innings of one-run ball against Toronto. Kenny trusts a Royals bullpen that has held up all season. Washington counters with Mitchell Parker (7-12, 5.43 ERA) off back-to-back blowups and then turns to an MLB-worst bullpen. The Nationals have scored 0, 0 and 2 in three of their last four games and rank 18th in batting average, 21st in runs. While he leans under nine, Kenny’s actionable play is the Royals moneyline, believing their pitching edge and postseason urgency trump their 29th-ranked offense.

Mills Young grabbed CJ Abrams for over 1.5 total bases at a 60 % recent hit rate, noting the shortstop’s surge since top prospect James Wood joined the lineup. Abrams’ max-EV jumped to 111 mph in July, and he has already stolen seven bags this month, creating extra paths to two bases. Facing a pitcher with a 1.42 WHIP, Young believes Abrams can clear the number with either a double in the gap or a bunt-single plus swipe, while a homer sprinkle sweetens the pot.