Kenny G said he still has to side with the Yankees at roughly -275 despite the steep price. His reasoning centers on Max Fried, who owns a 13-5 record and 3.14 ERA and is coming off a six-scoreless-innings, seven-strikeout outing against Boston. Kenny trusts Fried to dominate a Washington lineup that ranks 23rd in slugging and scored just one run in Game 2 of the series. He also highlighted the Nationals’ bullpen — statistically the worst in MLB — as a late-game liability. New York’s offense has produced 5, 10, and 7 runs in its last three games and leads the majors in slugging, so Kenny expects them to give Fried plenty of support. While he concedes the Yankees’ own bullpen has been shaky, he feels the talent gap between the starters and the red-hot Yankee bats justifies the lay price. He sees no clear edge on the 8.5-run total.

Eric Lindquist said Aaron Judge is worth a home-run sprinkle Wednesday as long as sportsbooks post a number north of +225. He noted Cade Cavalli’s modest 18.6 % strike-out rate and called the right-hander “a guy that doesn’t really strike anybody out.” Judge still owns a .691 expected slugging percentage and, in Lindquist’s words, "destroys righties, destroys lefties, destroys humankind that throw baseballs." FanDuel opened the prop at +196, but Lindquist’s break-even model prices Judge closer to +225 and he has already seen rogue +270 tickets appear. Because public money has cooled on Judge after a quiet stretch, Lindquist expects softer odds to linger and views the matchup as a plus spot to attack the long-ball market.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Cody Bellinger to stay under 0.5 runs on Wednesday. Harrelson leaned on a 250-game data set in which Bellinger has failed to score in 57.5 % of contests (67-of-117 this season, 75-of-130 last season). Over his past nine games he has stayed under in seven, and he has done the same in four of the past seven meetings with Washington. The market backs the play as Hard Rock lists the under at –130. Harrelson added context around matchup splits: Bellinger owns just a .244 average versus right-handed pitching, while Nationals righty Cade Cavalli is holding left-handed bats to a .152 average. With Bellinger projected for roughly 4–5 plate appearances, Harrelson believes the combination of long-term trend and platoon disadvantage makes the under a solid value play.