JD Bets laid the −178 moneyline with Philadelphia, saying the Phils are in "ride the streak" territory after several straight wins and he flat-out does not trust Washington spot-starter Brad Lord. Taijuan Walker has “shut them down” historically, limiting current Nats bats to a .231 average and sub-.800 OPS in 13 combined at-bats while allowing just one homer. Lord, meanwhile, shows almost no MLB sample and managed only 4–5 strikeouts against Colorado—hardly an endorsement. Philadelphia’s lineup owns a .368 wOBA and .325 OBP versus right-handed pitching, and Walker’s home splits plus a loud Citizens Bank crowd make JD comfortable laying the short price despite the juice.

Drew Martin was willing to swallow –170 with the Phillies, noting Taijuan Walker’s 2.70 ERA and strong home splits. Philadelphia’s bats are rolling while Washington ranks bottom-10 in offense and dead last in bullpen ERA. Martin hates laying more than –150 but called this price fair given the starting-pitching and bullpen disparity and recommended listing Walker to avoid any late scratches.

Dylan Rockford played over 9.5 in Nationals-Phillies, citing two shaky starters and atrocious bullpens. Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker owns a 2.78 ERA on paper but has been tagged in two of his last three outings (combined 7 ER in 7 IP versus the Giants and Cubs) and rarely works deep. Washington counters with long-man-turned-opener Brad Lord, who has allowed at least two runs in each of his last three appearances while stretching to four-plus innings. Rockford reminded listeners that these clubs have the two worst relief ERAs in baseball and that Citizens Bank Park overs are 9-5 this season with wind once again forecast to blow out. The Phillies average 5.3 runs per home game (top-five) and the Nats’ bats have woken up this week, leading him to project double-digit scoring by the seventh inning.

Eric Lindquist wants a quarter-unit on a Kyle Schwarber home-run prop as long as books hang anything better than +230 (he will bump to a half-unit if the opener reaches +250). Citizens Bank Park is expected to have wind blowing out again, and the total has already hit 9.5. Lindquist called Washington spot-starter Brad Lord and Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker “two righties that just don’t belong in the big leagues,” highlighting Walker’s 11.7° average launch angle allowed and Lord’s general lack of swing-and-miss stuff. Schwarber owns a .593 expected slugging and 55.8 % hard-hit rate versus right-handers this season and has been one of Lindquist’s three historical “double-dong” candidates. Because Schwarber also carries a 17.8 % walk rate, Lindquist will hedge with a Walk prop, but the actionable edge is the HR number if the market stays in the Aaron Judge/Shohei Ohtani price range.

The tout endorsed the over 9.5, noting both clubs are riding high-scoring streaks. Washington has gone over in four of its last five, largely because the staff has allowed seven-plus runs in three of those games. Philadelphia has cleared the total in two-thirds of its home dates, and three of the five head-to-head meetings in 2025 have already gone over. With the Nationals’ bullpen still hemorrhaging runs and the Phillies swinging hot bats, Cash Out Sports Picks anticipates another scoreboard-lighting affair in South Philly.

Cash Out Sports Picks made Philadelphia the side play, leaning on Taijuan Walker’s 2.78 ERA and the club’s 3-2 record in his starts. Washington counters with converted reliever Lord, who is 0-3 as a starter while the Nationals are 1-3 when he takes the ball. The Phillies boast the league’s fourth-best on-base percentage and entered the game on a three-game win streak, having already won three of the first four meetings with Washington. With Philly jockeying with the Mets atop the NL East and facing a shaky opposing hurler, the tout expects another comfortable home win.

B Wade recommended Alec Bohm over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Bohm has missed this mark only twice in his last 12 games and has hit it in five straight at Citizens Bank Park. He faces Brad Lord, lugging a 4.67 ERA and 1.70 WHIP while failing to record an out past the first batter of the fifth inning all season, meaning the Phillies will also get several innings of mediocre bullpen arms. Given Bohm’s current tear and the opponent’s inability to keep runners off base, Wade believes the line is too low.

Kenny G recommended laying –170 with Philadelphia, trusting Taijuan Walker (2.78 ERA; only blemish a single blow-up vs San Francisco) far more than rookie Brad Lord, who has pitched respectably but remains win-less because Washington’s bullpen is an abysmal 7.41 ERA—“batting practice as soon as the starter leaves.” Philadelphia’s pen is shaky too (5.03 ERA), yet Kenny expects their surging offense (seven or more runs in three of the last four; 4th in MLB OBP) led by Kyle Schwarber’s nine homers to build a cushion. Washington is 4-10 on the road and owns the league’s best over record (21-9) due to that relief disaster, while the Phillies are 10-4 at Citizens Bank Park. Kenny leans to the 9.5-run over but says the stronger angle is simply backing the hotter, deeper Philly club to keep its four-game win streak alive against a Nationals team with too many late-inning leaks.

Erik Halterman argued that MacKenzie Gore’s perceived hot streak is actually a legitimate breakout worth overpaying for before the market adjusts. While the surface 3.34 ERA suggests improvement, Gore’s 2.17 SIERA screams frontline dominance. He fanned 13 Phillies on Opening Day and repeated 13 strikeouts at Coors Field on April 19. His 37% strikeout rate trails only the now-injured Logan Gilbert and he has slashed his walk rate to an elite 6% after seasons of 10% and 9%. The former Padres blue-chip prospect was a centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade and appears to have finally paired his stuff with command. Because the ERA is good but not mind-blowing, Halterman believes some managers will think they’re selling high on a fluky run; in reality, the skills profile supports ace-level production. Make aggressive trade offers in season-long formats while there’s still skepticism about Gore’s staying power.

Erik Halterman advised scooping up Aaron Nola before the ERA tax disappears. Nola’s 5.40 ERA / 1.40 WHIP look scary, but his 3.58 SIERA is actually better than the 3.75 and 3.68 he posted the last two seasons and right on top of his 3.51 career mark. Strikeout rate (25%) is sandwiched between last year’s 24% and 2023’s 26%. The walk rate is up to 8%, highest since 2020, but still manageable. What’s really inflating the ERA is bad variance: a 16.2% HR/FB (league 10.7%, career 13.9% even in homer-happy Citizens Bank Park), a .330 BABIP versus his .293 career figure, and a 67% strand rate vs a 74% norm. Halterman noted Nola looked like vintage Nola in his latest start (7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H vs Cubs). All the underlying indicators say the ace is intact, so grab him now while the box-score stats scare his current manager.

Data Skrive noted Kyle Schwarber is sitting at +230 to go deep against the Nationals after already clobbering 9 homers in 30 games (a 30% dinger rate). The +230 line implies about a 30% chance, so the book has finally caught up to his raw power—but considering Schwarber’s career HR/game sits closer to 32-33% when facing right-handed pitching, there’s still a hair of positive EV if you believe the platoon edge and warm weather in Philly bump the HR probability a tick above the market.

He also bet Over 9.5 because both starters carry walk issues (Walker 4.0 BB/9, Lord 4.7 BB/9) that inflate pitch counts and lead to early bullpen exposure—terrible news given Washington’s 7.47 pen ERA. With warm weather and two wild staffs, Peterson projected 9.6 runs, clearing the posted total.

Peterson still laid -1.5 runs at +115 with Philadelphia even though Taijuan Walker’s 4.05 FIP hints at ERA regression, because Washington counters with Brad Lord (4.67 ERA, 4.7 BB/9) and the worst bullpen in baseball (7.47 ERA). Philadelphia’s lineup should exploit Lord’s shaky command, and Peterson’s model priced the run line at -111, giving bettors more than a quarter-run of value.

Bryan Zarpentine backed Taijuan Walker to stay Under 2.5 earned runs at +120. Walker owns a 2.78 ERA and has surrendered two runs or fewer in four of five 2025 starts despite rarely working deep (failed to finish five innings in four outings, no appearance past five since Opening Day). Zarpentine argued the short leash actually helps this prop because fewer innings means fewer chances for damage. The matchup is friendly as well: current Nationals hitters are just 8-for-47 (.170) off Walker lifetime. Put it together and Zarpentine expects another sub-three-run line from the right-hander.