Kenny G said the +210 price on the White Sox is too juicy to ignore. Davis Martin owns a 3.62 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, giving Chicago a chance to hang around before turning it over to a bullpen that, while still below average (4.41 ERA), is far better than last year’s disaster. Framber Valdez is in fine form (five straight quality starts, Astros 5-0 in that span), yet his lone stumble during the run came against these same Sox on May 2nd when he surrendered four earned in five frames. Houston’s offense remains middling—22nd in runs, 17th in slugging—and Chicago’s bats have shown faint signs of life with 4-7 runs in two of the last three. Given the Astros’ inconsistent lineup, Valdez’s prior issues with this opponent, and a fat moneyline, Kenny thinks a small flier on the White Sox is warranted.

Looking for plus-money upside, Martin grabbed Chicago +200 in the first five innings. The White Sox have quietly won four of their last five and profile better against lefties—important versus Framber Valdez, whose worst start of the season came against them (7 H, 4 ER in 5 IP). Davis Martin sports a 3.60 ERA and was solid when he faced Houston earlier this year. The Astros lineup has been uncharacteristically quiet versus right-handed pitching, and shortening the wager to five frames removes the White Sox’s weaker bullpen from the equation. Martin called the price an overreaction to season-long records and believes Chicago can be ahead through five.

It’s The Final Round mentioned Jake Meyers as a lower-profile option. The Astros outfielder is 2-for-2 with a home run against Thursday’s opposing pitcher Martin (small sample but flawless result) and has collected a hit in eight of his last ten games overall. Bettors looking for a plus-money dart throw on hits or total bases might find value here.

Just A Bet Outside said Valdez is the only arm on the slate with a strikeout prop worth attacking. Chicago owns the 13th-highest K-rate against lefties at 23.4%, and Valdez has punched out 84 hitters in 85 innings while clearing seven strikeouts in five of his last six outings. The host acknowledged Valdez’s home K-rate dips to 22.9% (compared to 27% on the road) but still trusts the matchup because Valdez strikes out 28% of left-handed batters and already fanned six White Sox in just five innings on May 2. The take: play Valdez’s strikeout over (likely 6.5) despite the borderline slate.

Eric Lindquist tabbed Andrew Benintendi as his favorite total-bases—and potential home-run—target on Wednesday. The veteran outfielder quietly owns a .510 expected slugging percentage and a .361 xwOBA over his last ten games, numbers that dwarf his season slash (.245/.315/.427) and point to serious positive regression. His hard-hit rate has climbed to 40%, the best mark he’s posted since 2021. Enter Houston spot starter Ryan Gusto, who has already surrendered six homers to left-handed bats while somehow keeping righties in the yard. Lindquist highlighted the expansive power alley in center and right at Guaranteed Rate Field as perfect real estate for Benintendi’s pull-side lift and wants plus money on 2+ total bases, with a sprinkle on the long-ball prop. He cautioned against blanket “hot streak” betting but said this particular underlying profile versus Gusto’s lefty issues is exactly the kind of micro-edge that has fueled his June heater.

Kenny G was stunned to see Houston laying –190 and happily took the White Sox at +155. Sean Burke has quietly stabilized Chicago’s rotation, giving up two earned or fewer in three of his last four and posting a 4.03 ERA overall. Ryan Gusto’s 4.78 ERA is propped up by soft matchups (PIT, TB, SEA), and Kenny doubts he dominates even a light-hitting Chicago lineup. The White Sox bullpen, while still shaky, is no longer the disaster of 2024, whereas the Astros’ bats are a bigger concern: 22nd in runs, 18th in slugging, and scoring 2-2-5-4-8-0 the last six games. Houston’s pen remains solid (3.39 ERA), but Kenny thinks the real edge belongs to the value side: the Sox have already stolen game one, and the Astros are just 12-22 at Minute Maid. He expects a low-scoring grind where +155 offers plenty of cushion—something like 4-3 or 3-2 in Chicago’s favor.

Razzle highlighted Rule 5 rookie Shane Smith as a tournament sprinkle. The right-hander has kept the ball in the yard, limits hard contact, and is nearly a strikeout per inning. Houston’s right-handed power is a concern, but Smith’s 4.5 K prop is juiced to the over and his sub-3.40 ERA shows he can navigate tough lineups. At a bargain salary, Razzle sees him as a leverage play against a likely popular Astros stack.