Lonte Smith will back Tampa –1.5 as long as the price is reasonable, even with the starting-pitcher mystery on Chicago’s side. Drew Rasmussen has a 2.64 ERA at Tropicana Field and the Rays are 19-8 in their last 27 home games. Smith did acknowledge Tampa plans to monitor Rasmussen’s innings, so a 5-inning outing is possible, but he still trusts a rested bullpen against a White Sox club fresh off a 506-run (!) weekend that he views as pure variance. Chicago is down to TBD after scheduled starter Shane Smith hit the IL, meaning a bullpen committee versus a Rays team desperate to bounce back from a 3-7 stretch. Smith expects the matchup to serve as a get-right spot, projecting a 6-3 Tampa win and prefers the run line to an inflated moneyline.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Chandler Simpson as a sneaky hit-prop play. Now entrenched as the Rays’ leadoff man, Simpson is scorching: .396 in July after a .318 June, and he just snapped an 18-game hit streak. His otherworldly contact rates—7.8 % K-rate in July, 4.2 % in June—translate to constant balls in play, plus he’s batting .315 against righties. The matchup is juicy: first-time starter Sean Burke followed by Chicago’s shaky bullpen. With Tropicana’s turf and Simpson’s elite speed producing infield singles, the tout projects five plate appearances and likes betting Simpson to record at least one hit or pairing him with Harper in a two-leg hitter parlay.

Just A Bet Outside wants the OVER on Shane Baz’s K prop after the Rays fireballer rang up 30 strikeouts across his last four outings and has worked 6+ innings in five of his past six. The right-hander’s swinging-strike rate is back above 15 %, and his workload is no longer capped. Against a White Sox team that sits bottom-five in contact rate versus righties, the tout projects 7–8 punch-outs and likes anything at 6.5 or lower.

Bamford grabbed Chicago at +165, arguing the market underrates a suddenly scorching White Sox lineup that has hung double-digit runs in three straight. Shane Baz owns a 5.47 ERA in ten career starts at Tropicana, and Bamford doubts he can navigate a lineup that finally looks awake. Sean Burke has been ‘absolutely fine,’ and while his road ERA is higher, Bamford sees enough reliability to keep the Sox in it. Given Tampa’s middling form and the big plus-price, he labeled it a clear value play.

Lindquist advised parlaying a Chandler Simpson single with a stolen base in the Rays-White Sox game rather than betting the SB prop alone. Since returning from Triple-A, Simpson is tied for the MLB lead in steals thanks to a 9 % K-rate, 17 % hard-hit rate, and .302 xBA—he simply slaps the ball in play and runs. Chicago’s probable catcher tandem of Kyle Teel (82 mph avg pop) or Edgar Quero (85 mph) has respectable arms, but Lindquist is unbothered because Sean Burke’s 1.57 WHIP gives Simpson plenty of base-runner opportunities. With the Rays now batting Simpson higher in the order, Lindquist expects at least four plate appearances; if one of them is a knock, the stolen base is ‘almost automatic,’ making the SGP a better ROI than the straight steal line.