Todd Zola advised streaming Shane Smith, the Rule-5 pick Chicago fast-tracked into the rotation. Smith has already logged two quality starts in four outings and now faces a Twins offense sitting third-worst in wOBA and fifth-lowest in runs per game. Target Field’s neutral run environment plus Minnesota’s offensive woes give Smith realistic six-inning, QS upside for fantasy managers hunting for innings and ratios on a short slate.

Data Skrive’s projection model spit out a 6-5 Minnesota win, recommending both the Twins at ‑225 and the game total over 8 runs. The algorithm is willing to eat the juice despite Chris Paddack’s ugly 0-2 record and 7.27 ERA because the White Sox are an AL-worst 5-19 and counter with rookie Shane Smith (0-1, 2.82 ERA) in just his second big-league start. Minnesota’s lineup gets the advantage of Target Field’s afternoon hitting conditions, and the high projected score leans on Paddack’s volatility plus a Chicago bullpen that owns the league’s fifth-worst ERA.

Owen OBrien laid out a case for grabbing the White Sox at +1.5 runs Thursday. Chicago hands the ball to rookie right-hander Shane Smith, who owns a sparkling 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through four turns and has been the club’s most effective starter. Minnesota counters with Chris Paddack, and the Sox already tagged him for nine earned in 4.1 innings on Opening Weekend. Despite Chicago’s overall offensive woes, Andrew Vaughn has logged extra-base hits in two of his last three games, and the matchup comes against a Twins lineup that ranks just 26th in runs per game (3.43) with the fourth-worst team batting average (.210). Add in the fact that Minnesota is only 6-5 at home ATS while Chicago is 11-13 on the run line, and OBrien believes the underdog can keep it within a run — or even steal the game outright — making the +1.5 (-109) a worthwhile bet.

SportsLine’s proprietary simulation model recommended attacking the Over 8 runs after running Thursday’s White Sox-Twins matchup 10,000 times and spitting out an average of 9.1 total runs. The model is riding a 13-6 (+415) heater on top-rated MLB bets and sees value in the Over because: (1) Minnesota starter Chris Paddack was torched for nine runs by this same Chicago lineup on March 31; (2) the White Sox bullpen owns a 5.06 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball; (3) Minnesota’s bats, led by a red-hot Byron Buxton (four XBH in his last four games), have piled up 12 hits in back-to-back contests; and (4) Target Field weather calls for a mild 10-mph breeze out to left. With both offenses showing life and at least one shaky bullpen on display, the model believes 8 runs is too low and assigns the Over the highest edge on the board.

Greg Peterson played the Under 8.5 because both clubs are stuck in neutral at the plate. The White Sox were averaging just 2.7 runs per road game (27th in MLB) entering Wednesday, while the Twins sat 26th overall at a shade over 3.4. On the mound, Chicago’s Shane Smith has surrendered only one homer in 22.1 innings with a 2.82 ERA, and Minnesota’s Chris Paddack has given up just three runs over his last two outings while fanning 11 in 10 frames. Peterson power-rated the total at 7.8, creating a full run of value to the Under.

Sean Zerillo said the White Sox–Twins matinee sets up as a classic weather-driven Under. First-pitch temps are projected at 52° with drizzle, and a 6-7 mph wind blowing straight in from center field — conditions that trigger Action Labs’ long-term wind-and-weather system (4.7% ROI since 2005). Zerillo’s own model makes the total 7.42 runs, creating value on Under 8 to -112. He added pitching support: Chris Paddack has righted the ship after two ugly outings, allowing just two earned runs over his last 10 innings with 11 Ks, and projection systems now slot him as a league-average arm (3.94-4.25 FIP range) thanks to elite command (116 Location+) and a plus changeup. Rule-5 rookie Shane Smith owns only one above-average pitch (90.5 mph changeup, 103 Stuff+) but locates the fastball well (114 Location+). That, plus a slumping Twins lineup (82 wRC+, 26th), led Zerillo to recommend betting the Under rather than picking a side.

Eric Pathi recommended grabbing the White Sox +1.5 runs at +110 ("plus 10 cents") in their Thursday matchup at Minnesota. He called the run-line underdog priced at plus money "the best bet in all of baseball" and emphasized that Chicago is a hefty +260 straight-up dog, so bettors get a full run and a half while still being paid plus odds. Pathi did not weigh pitching match-ups, instead leaning on his long-standing value approach of taking big underdogs on the run line when sportsbooks still offer a positive payout.

Kenny G leaned toward the White Sox moneyline at +185 despite their ugly record. His case centers on starting pitching: rookie Shane Smith has quietly posted a 2.82 ERA and already tossed 5.2 strong innings versus Minnesota, whereas Chris Paddack carries a 7.27 ERA overall and was lit up for nine earned in 3.1 frames when he last saw Chicago. Kenny acknowledged Chicago’s shaky 4.34 bullpen ERA but argued the Twins’ bats have been so bad—second fewest runs in the AL—that even a mediocre relief corps might hold a lead. With nearly 2-to-1 odds and a live arm on the mound, he felt the Sox were undervalued and worth a small, standalone play (not a parlay piece).

Kenny G said the total is too high at 8.5 and advised taking the under. He pointed out that both line-ups have been brutal: Chicago ranks dead-last in batting average, slugging and on-base percentage while Minnesota is 26th in runs scored and 29th in average (.210). He also noted both clubs trend under already (White Sox 12-9-2, Twins 12-8-3). On the mound, Shane Smith owns a 2.82 ERA and limited the Twins to two runs over 5.2 innings earlier this month, while Chris Paddack is coming off back-to-back solid outings. With two cold offenses facing pitchers who can work deep, Kenny expects a regression from Wednesday’s mini shoot-out and believes runs will be at a premium.

Brian Howard said to grab the White Sox at +185 because the matchup and recent form do not justify Minnesota sitting at –225. He noted Shane Smith’s underlying numbers are quietly solid for a pitcher rated 58 in The Show: a sub-1.00 WHIP and 2.92 ERA. Smith already handled this Twins lineup once, tossing 5.2 innings of two-run ball on April 8. Meanwhile Chris Paddock owns a 1.50+ WHIP and a 7.27 ERA, has yet to see the sixth inning all season, and was torched by the same Sox for nine earned in 3.1 innings earlier this month (four walks, only two strikeouts). Howard added that the Twins’ run differential (–18) is hardly superior to Chicago’s (–30) and that, talent-wise, “they are not two-to-one better.” Because he does not trust Minnesota’s bullpen either, he wants the full-game money line rather than a first-five hedge.

Eric Lindquist leaned to the full-game Over 8.5 runs in White Sox-Twins because neither starter inspires confidence. Rookie Shane Smith has lived dangerously on a 16.8-degree average launch angle and a 4.40 xERA that badly trails his 2.82 ERA; Lindquist expects looming regression once those fly balls start carrying. On the other side Chris Paddack keeps pumping fastballs and owns a 4.68 xERA while allowing a 44% hard-hit rate since returning from San Diego. With two volatile arms, middling bullpens, and no meaningful weather suppression in Minneapolis, Lindquist expects enough crooked numbers that backing the Over is the best way to attack the game.

Guy Boston leaned to two correlated angles—full‑game under 8.5 and White Sox team‑total under 3.5—because he trusts rookie David Festa more than Chicago’s bats. Festa has yet to allow an earned run (0.00 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 1.11 WHIP) and stays in Minneapolis where all three early starts have come. The White Sox are bottom‑three in OPS, ISO and runs per game, making any regression for Festa likely muted by matchup. Boston also downplayed Minnesota’s own offense, noting the Twins average barely four runs and have produced exactly six runs total over their last three games versus non‑Atlanta opponents. With Bryce Wilson unlikely to implode and both clubs combining for roughly seven expected runs based on their season scoring/allowed profiles, Boston expects another 4‑2 type grinder and prefers fading Chicago’s sticks outright at under 3.5 (‑146) if forced to pick one ticket.

Cash Out Sports Picks also grabbed the full‑game UNDER, citing two offense‑averse clubs that rarely leave the yard. The Twins rank 26th in MLB, needing 45.25 at‑bats per home run, while the White Sox sit 23rd at 41.71 AB/HR but still own the league’s worst overall OPS (.576). Minnesota is only marginally better (.620) and sits in the bottom third for runs scored. The tout emphasized Chicago’s total power outage—dead‑last in long balls—which severely caps run potential, especially against a Twins bullpen that misses bats at a respectable clip (3.69 ERA, 15th). On the flip side, Chicago’s bullpen isn’t elite but is good enough to hold down an equally limp Minnesota lineup. The Sox have scored three or fewer runs in their last three games versus the Twins, reinforcing the low‑scoring trend. With both clubs ranking among the bottom five offenses and Target Field not providing any boost, the handicapper expects a tight, modest total that still finishes under the number.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the -1.5 with Minnesota, arguing Chicago simply cannot keep pace. The tout noted the Twins have taken eight of the past ten meetings with the White Sox and seven of those wins came by two or more runs, showing consistent run‑line profitability. Chicago is a bankroll killer overall—only Colorado has burned bettors more against the spread—and the South Siders are a dreadful 1‑10 on the road. Meanwhile, rookie sensation David Festa has been "nearly untouchable" to open the year, giving Minnesota a clear edge on the mound against Bryce Wilson, who will work as a short‑stint opener and has struggled to put away hitters early. Even if Wilson survives, the Sox bullpen sports a 4.28 ERA (19th), compared with the Twins’ 3.69 mark (15th). With Minnesota already dominating the season series and Chicago's lineup posting an MLB‑worst .576 OPS, the handicapper expects another comfortable multi‑run victory for the home side.

Bailey Ober UNDER 6.5 K at -140 is Carty’s preferred angle, with THE BAT X calculating a 63% success rate and $10.70 expected value. Ober is averaging only 79.7 adjusted pitches per start, landing in the 14th percentile league‑wide; those limited workloads cap his path to seven punch‑outs even against a strikeout‑prone White Sox lineup.

Kenny G leaned to Minnesota at −250 even though he stopped short of calling it his daily “lock.” The White Sox are a mess: 5‑17 overall, 1‑9 on the road, and last in MLB in nearly every offensive category. Their starter Davis Martin was tagged for eight hits and four earned by Oakland last time out, and Kenny expects Chicago’s 4.28 bullpen ERA to balloon further. Bailey Ober has flashed rebound form after a rough opener and now faces the majors’ worst lineup, while Minnesota’s own relief unit sits near league average at 3.69. Despite the Twins’ offensive struggles (26th in runs), Kenny trusts the massive starting‑pitching edge and Chicago’s road futility enough to swallow the big price if bettors need a money‑line piece for parlays.

Eric Lindquist played Over 8 (–120) in White Sox–Twins rather than taking a side. He hammered Bailey Ober’s ugly batted‑ball profile—20.1° launch angle, 55.7 % hard‑hit rate and 94.5 mph average exit velocity. Five homers have already left the yard against Ober in only four starts, producing a career‑worst 1.42 WHIP. Lindquist admitted Chicago’s offense is weak, but noted that even mediocre bats can punish that contact profile, and opposing starter Davis Martin (whom he called "Davis‑Morton") owns equally poor peripherals. Because books are still pricing Minnesota as heavy favorites, Lindquist felt the market is underrating the chance both pitching staffs get torched and grabbed the total instead.

The tout highlighted Andrew Vaughn as a value hit‑prop target against Bailey Ober. Vaughn owns a .333 career average (4‑for‑12) with a homer off Ober and has recorded a hit in six of his last seven games, signalling current form to match the historical edge.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the White Sox on the +1.5 run line, stressing that Bailey Ober’s early‑season implosion makes Minnesota overpriced. Ober sports a 6.16 ERA through four starts, has already coughed up five homers, and was torched for eight earned runs in his opener before surrendering three more last time out. Chicago counters with Davis Martin, whose 4.84 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 22.1 innings are hardly elite but still markedly better than Ober’s profile. The tout noted that Minnesota’s seven wins are only two more than Chicago’s five, undercutting any perceived talent gap. Getting plus money with the run and a half in a divisional game where neither club is separating itself was framed as the smart side play.

Malcolm Bamford leaned to the full‑game under 8.5, projecting a 5‑1 or 6‑2 Twins win. His case: Bailey Ober’s two home starts have both been run‑line victories in which Minnesota allowed two total runs, and the anemic White Sox offense owns a league‑worst .274 OBP. Conversely, he expects Davis Martin to survive against a Twins lineup that is 7‑15 overall and bottom‑five in slugging. Evening temperatures in the mid‑50s further suppress power, and neither squad inspires confidence at the plate. Bamford admitted he cannot stomach –250 on Minnesota, but thinks Ober’s steady home splits plus two punch‑less offenses point to a low‑scoring slog that stays south of nine.

Reichel wanted no part of either miserable side but found value in the White Sox team‑total market. Bailey Ober’s surface stats look solid, yet his 42 % hard‑hit rate and 11 % barrel rate hint at blow‑up risk. Chicago’s offense is dreadful overall, but a juiced 2.5 or plus‑money 3.5 felt like ‘low‑hanging fruit’ against a Twins staff allowing 5.1 runs per game and ranking bottom‑10 in bullpen ERA. Ober’s only faced offenses struggling worse than the Sox; when he stepped up in class, New York and Houston both cleared three runs. With temperatures in the mid‑60s and light winds out to left, Reichel thinks even a toothless Chicago lineup can scrape four runs, cashing the +120 alt number and avoiding the need to trust either bullpen or lay –250 with Minnesota.