Brady Kannon labeled Justin Lower a value bomb at 130-1 because he consistently thrives on Paspalum courses with generous landing areas. In 2024 Lower finished 3rd at Vidanta Vallarta, 4th at Corales and runner-up here at El Cardonal. This fall he rediscovered that ceiling with a 3rd-place finish at Black Desert. Over the last 24 rounds he ranks 8th in SG: Putting on Paspalum. Sitting 110th in the FedEx Cup standings, Lower has every incentive to chase birdies, and Kannon believes his proven course history plus hot putter make him a dangerous long-shot.

Kannon grabbed Ben Kohles at 115-1 after noticing the ball-striking clinic he’s been putting on. Over the last 24 rounds Kohles is 1st in SG: Approach, 4th in Greens in Regulation Gained and 13th in SG: Putting on Paspalum. Two weeks ago in Utah he shot four rounds in the 60s and ranked 13th on approach, 3rd in GIR and 4th in Driving Accuracy. Course comps are strong as well: 25th at this year’s Mexico Open, 6th in Puerto Rico and runner-up at TPC Craig Ranch. Kannon thinks those irons plus a comfortable putting surface give Kohles serious upset equity.

Brady Kannon snagged Matti Schmid at 105-1 because the German bomber repeatedly spikes on tracks that mirror El Cardonal. Over the past two seasons Schmid has posted top-11 finishes at Puerto Rico, Corales and Black Desert—all wide-fairway venues with huge greens. Earlier this year he was sixth in Puerto Rico and ninth at Corales. In the last 24 rounds he ranks sixth in Birdies or Better Gained, giving him the fire-power Kannon wants in a week when the winning score is expected to flirt with 26-under.

Brady Kannon recommended Garrick Higgo at 24-1, noting the big-hitting left-hander’s combination of recent form and course fit. Higgo has posted three straight top-10 finishes and already solved a comparable Paspalum track when he won the Corales Puntacana Championship in April. He finished sixth at El Cardonal last November, proving he can handle the elevation changes and enormous greens. Kannon said Higgo’s all-around statistical profile checks every box this week, and if the putter heats up for even two days he expects Higgo to be “in the mix come Sunday.”

Brady Kannon said Michael Thorbjornsen is a buy at 24-1 because El Cardonal’s wide fairways, zero rough and massive Paspalum greens accentuate the strengths revealed in Thorbjornsen’s recent run of form. Over his last four starts he owns a 13th-place and a third-place finish, plus a runner-up at the similarly constructed Corales Puntacana course last spring. In the last 24 measured rounds he ranks 11th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 2nd on approach, 3rd in Birdies or Better Gained and 1st in Greens in Regulation Gained, all key metrics Kannon emphasized for a projected birdie fest where the bookmaker’s winning-score prop is set at 25.5 under par. Kannon believes those ball-striking numbers give Thorbjornsen the inside track to capture his first PGA Tour title this week.

Kevin Cunningham listed J.J. Spaun as the clear No. 2 in the betting market at +1200 and argued that the number is justified — and potentially attractive — because of Spaun’s 2025 surge. Spaun captured the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont and followed that major championship by posting a 2-1-0 record for the U.S. at Bethpage, showing he can thrive on demanding setups and in team formats. Cunningham noted that those performances vaulted Spaun into this week’s conversation even though the World Wide Technology Championship is his first start since the Ryder Cup. With a proven ability to close on tough courses and plus odds only slightly longer than Griffin’s, Cunningham implied Spaun should be on bettors’ outright card as a legitimate alternative who still delivers double-digit returns.

Kevin Cunningham pointed out that Ben Griffin opens the week as the outright favorite at +1000 to win the 2025 World Wide Technology Championship at Tiger Woods-designed El Cardonal. Cunningham justified the short number by running through Griffin’s 2025 resume: a first PGA Tour victory at the Zurich Classic team event, a first solo win at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and two runner-up finishes highlighted by a close call at the Memorial. Griffin also went 1-1-0 in his Ryder Cup debut, giving Cunningham confidence that he can handle high-pressure environments similar to this stand-alone fall event. The combination of recent winning form, multiple high finishes, and proven mettle in match-play pressure situations makes Griffin, in Cunningham’s eyes, a logical and actionable outright bet despite the relatively short +1000 odds.

Kannon fired on Isaiah Salinda at 105-1, pointing to both motivation and skill-set. Salinda sits 104th in the FedEx Cup standings and needs a big finish to keep full status. He was third at the Mexico Open on another Paspalum track and, two weeks ago in Utah, ranked 11th for SG: Off the Tee, 8th on approach, 1st in Greens in Regulation and 17th in Scrambling. Over the last 24 rounds he’s 10th in SG: Putting on Paspalum. Kannon believes that well-rounded profile makes Salinda a live long-shot on a course where missing giant greens leads to tough up-and-downs.

Colt Knost endorsed Michael Brennan for a top-10 finish at +330 in Mexico, noting that Brennan captured the Bank of Utah Championship in his most recent PGA Tour start on a sponsor exemption. Knost likes how El Cardonal's wide-open layout mirrors Black Desert, another bomber-friendly venue, and highlighted Brennan's 190-mph ball speed as a perfect fit. With the field lacking elite depth and Brennan already showing he can win against Tour players, Knost expects another big week.

Drew Stoltz said he is betting Johnny Keefer to record a top-20 finish at +220 in the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal. Stoltz pointed out that Keefer just topped the Korn Ferry Tour points list and sits 53rd in the OWGR despite never holding a PGA Tour card, something Stoltz called 'crazy.' He added that fellow KFT players routinely single Keefer out as the next breakout star, so Stoltz expects the momentum to continue in a fall-series field light on established winners.

Michael Harrison took a speculative stab on Nick Dunlap at a massive +50000, acknowledging the youngster’s volatile profile but elite upside. Dunlap stunned the golf world with two PGA Tour wins as a 20-year-old amateur in 2024, yet struggled throughout 2025. Harrison argued that against a shallow field where any hot week can win, Dunlap’s ceiling outweighs recent misses. He suggested pairing the outright ticket with top-10 and top-20 wagers, viewing Dunlap as the classic boom-or-bust lottery piece that can pay off big in Fall Series events.

Michael Harrison labeled Justin Lower a "live longshot" at +15000. Lower enters off a T-3 finish in Utah, his best result of 2025, and pairs that momentum with strong course history: a top-25 here in 2023 followed by a co-runner-up last year, missing the title by a single stroke. Harrison believes Lower’s recent spike with the flat stick plus his proven comfort on El Cardonal’s generous fairways create a legitimate path to victory, justifying an outright flyer at 150-1.

Michael Harrison advised sprinkling Carson Young at +11000 despite the American’s lukewarm recent form, citing an unrivaled course résumé. Young finished 9th at El Cardonal in 2023 and was co-runner-up in 2024; over the past two editions he ranks 1st in total strokes gained at this venue. Harrison argued that familiarity with the tricky Paspalum greens and coastal winds gives Young a ceiling few in this weak field can match, making triple-digit odds too tempting to ignore.

Michael Harrison recommended Mackenzie Hughes at +6000, stressing that the Canadian’s best golf historically comes during the Fall Series. Hughes owns two PGA Tour victories—both in autumn events—and arrives on the heels of a T-7 finish two starts ago, his fourth top-10 of 2025 that includes a playoff loss in Myrtle Beach. Harrison also highlighted course comfort: Hughes finished T-7 at this tournament in 2023. With proven closing ability, recent form, and a track record of thriving when bigger names take weeks off, Harrison views Hughes as undervalued in outright markets.

MacMillan recommended sprinkling Ben Kohles at a juicy 125-1 outright number posted at Caesars. Kohles tops the entire field in true strokes-gained approach over the last six months at +1.01 per round, giving him elite ball-striking credentials for El Cardonal’s generous greens complexes. The red flag is putting—he has bled −0.82 strokes per round on the greens during that span—but MacMillan pointed out Kohles gained with the flat stick en route to a T20 at the Bank of Utah Championship two weeks ago. If that improved putting carries over while his iron play stays dialed in, MacMillan thinks the longshot has a legitimate path to contending and cashing a triple-digit ticket.

Iain MacMillan advised grabbing Ben Griffin at the 13-1 outright price available at FanDuel, noting that DraftKings has already trimmed him to +1000. MacMillan called Griffin the clear class of a weak World Wide Technology Championship field after the North Carolinian led all entrants in total strokes gained over the past six months at +2.02 per round—0.15 strokes better than the next closest player. Griffin’s profile meshes perfectly with El Cardonal’s generous fairways: he owns above-average distance off the tee and a proven knack for piling up birdies in low-scoring shootouts. MacMillan believes those numbers warrant even shorter odds and sees Griffin as the premier betting target this week.

John Haslbauer highlighted Mark Hubbard as a sneaky buy for outright tickets and mid-range DFS lineups. Hubbard pops inside the top-10 of Haslbauer’s model because he meets all four preferred filters: above-average Comp Course History (Grand Reserve, Vidanta Vallarta, Keene Trace, etc.), strong SG: Approach numbers over his last 36 rounds, positive SG: Putting splits on paspalum, and a robust Birdies or Better Gained rate. El Cardonal’s enormous fairways neutralize his lack of distance while rewarding his tidy wedge game, and the projected –25 winning score aligns with Hubbard’s historical success on easier setups. Haslbauer expects sportsbooks to hang Hubbard in the 50-1 to 60-1 range, creating what he calls "prime value territory" for an each-way bet and an ownership-discounted GPP play.

John Haslbauer identified Ben Griffin as the No. 1 player in his custom model for El Cardonal. Griffin is the highest-ranked OWGR golfer in the field and surprisingly chose to tee it up despite already locking up full status for 2026, which Haslbauer views as a signal his motivation remains high. Griffin grades out above average in every key metric Haslbauer is emphasizing—SG: Approach, SG: Putting on paspalum, Birdies or Better Gained, and Comp Course History—making him the most complete fit for a layout that has surrendered winning scores of –27 and –23 the past two years. With coastal winds unlikely to show, Haslbauer expects another putting contest and believes Griffin's balanced tee-to-green game plus strong flatstick make him a justifiable betting favorite and a cash-game anchor on DraftKings even if the outright price opens in the low teens.

John Haslbauer said Rico Hoey is his favorite early outright dart at El Cardonal, pointing to a statistical profile that checks every box for the projected 25-under birdie fest. Hoey enters Cabo with three top-10 finishes in four Fall Swing starts and a runner-up at the Bank of Utah Championship, evidence he is in the best form of his young PGA TOUR career. He leads this field in Strokes Gained: Approach by a "considerable margin," ranks top-10 in both Comp Course History and Birdies or Better Gained, and owns above-average length off the tee—an ideal mix for a resort track featuring 7,452 yards of Paspalum with oversized fairways and negligible rough. Haslbauer’s model has Hoey 13th overall, but he believes the combination of elite iron play and hot putting on paspalum greens gives him clear win equity at expected mid-tier odds and makes him a priority DFS play.

Baz Plummer touted Sami Valimaki at a juicy +10000. Although Valimaki lacks recent headline finishes, Plummer said the Finn’s underlying numbers scream upside: 5th in SG: Putting and 9th in SG: Approach across the last six months. Valimaki was runner-up at last year’s Mexico Open and has shown form on another comparable low-scoring track at Hamilton G&CC in 2024. With two top-10s and six top-25s already in 2025, Plummer believes this is the perfect buy-low spot on a player whose skill set fits El Cardonal’s birdie barrage.

Baz Plummer echoed support for Ben Griffin at +1200, emphasizing data. Griffin ranks 6th in this field in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting over his last 20 rounds, profiles that match the past two winners’ statistical templates at El Cardonal. Plummer also cited Griffin’s four top-12 finishes in his last five starts—including a runner-up last time out—and strong results on correlating venues (FedEx St. Jude, RBC Canadian). He concluded that Griffin is ‘significantly better than most of this field in current form’ and a worthy favorite despite short odds.

Jonny Leighfield also backed Garrick Higgo at +2200, adding that Higgo’s win earlier this year at the Corales Puntacana frees him to play aggressively. Leighfield cited the South African’s recent run (T7-2nd-T4) and his length/putting combo as perfect for El Cardonal’s easy scoring. He believes the lack of pressure plus last year’s T6 finish set the stage for another high ceiling week.

Jonny Leighfield argued Ben Griffin deserves his +1200 favorite tag. Griffin has recorded two wins and eight additional top-10s this season, most recently a runner-up at the Procore Championship. Leighfield noted Griffin is gaining strokes in every category and is particularly lethal on the greens, a key at a track that routinely produces −24 scores. Although his best finish here is T23, Leighfield said Griffin has never entered with this complete a game and expects him to contend for a third PGA Tour title.

Matt Cradock backed Max Greyserman at +2000 to claim his first PGA Tour victory. Cradock highlighted two runner-up finishes in 2025, including his most recent start at the Baycurrent Classic and a playoff loss at June’s Rocket Classic. He also emphasized Greyserman’s comfort at El Cardonal, where he finished solo 4th in 2024 with rounds of 68-64-69-65. The combination of proven low scoring on this track and converging recent form led Cradock to call Greyserman the week’s best win bet.

Elliott Heath said Garrick Higgo is an elite course fit at El Cardonal and worth backing at +2200 on BetMGM. Heath pointed to Higgo’s T6 here last year (17-under) and a blazing run of form—T4 Baycurrent Classic, solo 2nd Sanderson Farms, T7 Procore—arguing the South African’s length off the tee plus a red-hot putter are exactly what the 24- to 27-under scoring environment demands. Heath added that Higgo already owns two PGA Tour victories this season, so the confidence factor is high as he chases a third.

MacMillan recommended sprinkling on Ben Kohles at +12500 via Caesars, arguing that his iron game gives him legitimate win equity despite the triple-digit odds. Kohles paces the field in true strokes-gained approach over the past six months at +1.01 per round, the kind of ball-striking profile MacMillan thinks can separate at this resort course. The caveat is Kohles’ putter, which has bled 0.82 strokes per round in the same span, but MacMillan pointed to the golfer’s recent T20 at the Bank of Utah Championship where he gained on the greens as proof that an average putting week is attainable. If that flatstick improvement carries over, MacMillan believes the elite irons make Kohles a live outright lottery ticket in a tournament known for surprise winners during the PGA Tour’s fall swing.

Iain MacMillan urged bettors to grab Ben Griffin at the available +1300 on FanDuel, calling the number too long for what he views as the clear class of this field. MacMillan noted that over the last six months Griffin leads this week’s entrants in total strokes gained at +2.02 per round, a full 0.15 strokes better than the next-closest competitor. He highlighted Griffin’s combination of distance off the tee and proven ability to pile up birdies—traits he believes are critical at El Cardonal, where winning scores historically push well into double digits under par. Given the relatively weak field and Griffin’s statistical edge, MacMillan sees value in an outright ticket rather than a placement market play.