Matty Betss played Yadier DelValle by knockout at +250 to close the parlay. De Valle’s last two wins came via decision, but Betss noted those opponents had never been stopped in their careers. In contrast, Connor Matthews has been knocked out in back-to-back fights and enters with clear durability questions. Betss likes De Valle’s explosiveness and trusts Matthews’ submission defense (never subbed) to steer the fight toward striking exchanges where De Valle’s power advantage can cash the KO ticket.

Billy Ward pounced on Yadier DelValle inside-the-distance at +110. Ward described DelValle as a ‘big, explosive athlete’ with a BJJ black belt and judo brown belt who showed improved gas in his Contender Series win. Connor Matthews has been knocked out in both UFC appearances, the most recent KO coming less than three months ago, and Ward called him ‘one of the least athletic lightweights on roster.’ Matthews’ only viable path is to chain-wrestle to a decision, but Ward doubts he can ground a credentialed grappler like DelValle for 15 minutes. With DelValle moneyline north of ‑300, Ward expected the finish prop to be around ‑120 and was shocked to find plus money, calling it his favorite upside play on the prelims.

Andy Lang called the matchup a layup for Yadir DelValle inside the distance. Re-watching DelValle's Contender Series bout, Lang noted relentless forward pressure, heavy clinch knees and violent ground-and-pound. Meanwhile Connor Matthews was dominated by Francis Marshall, then returned to regional shows and still could not finish low-level foes like Jose Ferris. Lang cited Matthews’ leaky striking defense and tendency to tire under pressure, predicting DelValle will overwhelm him and score a KO. He is comfortable playing either the straight KO prop or generic ITD line.

Matty Betss flagged the 18-to-1 submission price on Connor Matthews as the wildest number on the card. Matthews owns five submissions in seven pro victories and three tap-outs in his last seven outings, yet books have him a longer shot to grapple Yadier Medeiros (debut) than to land a KO. Betss believes that makes no sense given Matthews’ style—constant forward pressure, one-track mind to clinch, drag opponents down, and hunt chokes. Medeiros is the cleaner striker and could flash power, but he has never been tested against this level of physical grinder. Betss expects violent swings either way and is already betting the fight Under 2.5 at –110. He will sprinkle the 18-1 Matthews submission as a pure numbers play, noting that debutante match-ups frequently blow up bookmaker algorithms.

Gianni the Greek played Yadier DelValle by finish at +110. He reminded listeners that Matthews has been knocked out in both of his UFC appearances and is not UFC-caliber. DelVallel landed 120+ significant strikes in his Contender Series bout and packs legit power, so Gianni expects sustained pressure to crack Matthews inside the distance. Taking plus money on a stoppage rather than laying DelValle’s heavy moneyline is how Gianni is attacking the mismatch.

Monk likes DelValle as a leverage play, citing his eye-popping DWCS tape: eight significant strikes per minute, two takedowns, and several minutes of control in a single 15-minute sample where he upset as a +120 dog. Connor Matthews, by contrast, has surrendered 100+ DK points in three of four UFC/DWCS appearances and owns just a 1-3 octagon record. Monk views DelValle’s multi-level attack—63 % head strikes, 20 % body, 17 % leg kicks, plus judo trips—as tailor-made to break Matthews’ suspect cardio. Because both fighters have fewer than 11 pro bouts, he’s limiting exposure to GPPs but will be well over the field on DelValle at any salary south of $9.4K.

Sniper predicted DelValle wins his debut but plans minimal DraftKings exposure because the Cuban judoka may be priced in the low-$9K range without a guaranteed finishing profile. He expects a decision more often than the market implies and noted Matthews’ 1-3 UFC/DWCS record still includes two 100-plus DK scores allowed, making it hard to full-fade the $7K underdog. Sniper ranks DelValle behind fellow favorites Bellato, Ruzaboev, and Van Costa for GPP upside and will match whatever ownership the field gives Matthews to hedge against a classic contender-series let-down.

Kunath laid out a simple play: Yadier DelValle by knockout, likely in Round 1. DelValle is undefeated across amateur and pro runs and impressed on Contender Series with fast hands and ruthless top control. Connor Matthews, meanwhile, has faced three current UFC fighters and failed to win a single round, showing porous striking defense and limited resistance on the mat. Kunath labeled Matthews ‘not UFC caliber’ and expects DelValle’s pressure—he lands 7.1 sig. strikes per minute on regional tape—to overwhelm immediately. Rather than eating the huge moneyline, Kunath suggested parlaying DelValle KO/TKO with other props or targeting the Under 1.5 depending on the book.

Daniel “Gumby” Vreeland picked Yadier DelValle to win but advised bettors to fade his –435 money-line because of clear cardio red flags. Vreeland reviewed DelValle’s Contender Series tape and saw the Cuban prospect gas badly in Round 3, dropping his hands and inviting a brawl. While Connor Matthews has been knocked out twice, Vreeland noted the American’s solid gas tank and underrated grappling—five career submissions and a 53 percent takedown success rate—that could expose DelValle if he fades late. Given Matthews’ live path via early takedowns and accumulated damage from DelValle’s porous defense when tired, Vreeland labeled the favorite a parlay killer and suggested a complete pass or a tiny stab at Matthews by submission instead of swallowing the juice.