Martin finished by playing Toronto –115 at home. The Blue Jays have ripped three straight since the break and are 35-16 at Rogers Centre, sitting atop the AL East. Max Scherzer, now 40, has returned from the IL with three consecutive starts of exactly five innings and two earned runs, including a June outing versus these Yankees in which he posted a 7-to-0 K/BB line over five scoreless frames. Toronto’s bullpen has also been top-5 all season. New York counters with 24-year-old rookie Cam Schlittler making just his second MLB start after allowing three earned over 5⅓ against Seattle. With Scherzer’s track record and the Jays’ dominant home form, Martin argued the –115 price is short and advised backing Toronto.

Malcom Bamford also took Toronto –120, noting the club has won 14 of its last 17 and owns a 9-3 advantage over New York in the past 12 meetings at Rogers Centre. Scherzer has three straight wins and a 2-3-2-3-2 run-by-run game log, exactly the kind of steadiness he wants to back. With the Yankees just 3-9 in their last 12 north of the border and sending an unknown rookie with recent arm issues, Bamford is happy to ride the league’s hottest team.

Lonte Smith backed Toronto at –120 and played the Over 9.5, citing Cam Schlittler’s arm-soreness delay and complete lack of road experience. Toronto has ripped off ten straight at Rogers Centre and is 7-3 over its last ten overall. Max Scherzer has been steady—2 or 3 earned runs in five straight—and the Jays already swept New York earlier this month by a 36-22 margin. Every game in that set went Over (totals of 9, 17, 20, 13). With the Yankees’ feast-or-famine offense and a taxed bullpen behind their rookie, Lonte expects another high-scoring Toronto win.

Brad PickDawgz backed the Blue Jays on the money line against the Yankees, leaning on Toronto’s 11-game home winning streak and his own recent success riding the club. He figures the current form is too strong to fade, echoing his ‘if it’s not broke, don’t fix it’ mantra and noting that the Jays have been a reliable bankroll builder for him over the past couple of weeks.

Kenny G recommended grabbing Toronto at even money, citing several matchup advantages. Carlos Rodon has flashed ceiling starts, but Kenny doubts he lasts more than six innings and pointed to New York’s fraying relief corps (4.13 bullpen ERA) that will have to bridge the final frames. Toronto’s pen, meanwhile, sits at a sturdy 3.55 ERA and has been lights-out in July. The Jays are an MLB-best 35-16 at Rogers Centre and 31-19-1 to the over there, showing they score early and often at home. Offensively, Toronto ranks first in batting average and second in OBP, applying constant pressure that can force the Yankees to their shaky pen sooner. Given Kevin Gausman’s career splits against New York (two earned over five frames in their last meeting) and Toronto’s current three-game winning streak, Kenny labeled the Blue Jays +100 “a great price” and his preferred side.

Just A Bet Outside’s first best bet is Blue Jays moneyline +102. Toronto has won 16 of its last 20 overall and owns MLB’s best home record at 35-16, including 13-6 as a home underdog. The Jays swept the Yankees in a four-game set before the break and are 5-2 head-to-head this season. While Carlos Rodon is the superior arm on paper, he’s yielded 11 earned across his last four road outings and the Yankees have dropped three of his past four starts. Kevin Gausman has been inconsistent but generally solid at Rogers Centre, and Toronto’s rested high-leverage bullpen gives them the late-inning edge. With New York only 25-25 on the road, the tout is happy to ride the scorching Bluebirds in a playoff-type atmosphere.

Just A Bet Outside advised taking the UNDER on Carlos Rodon’s strikeout line in Monday’s opener at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays own the league’s lowest K-rate against left-handers this season and fanned only four times in 5.0 innings when they saw Rodon on June 30. The host pointed out that Rodon has issued nine walks and 11 earned runs over his last four road starts, forcing shorter outings that cap strikeout volume. Toronto’s right-heavy order further hurts him because Rodon’s K-rate versus righties is nearly six percentage points lower than against lefties. With the Jays striking out under 17 % during their current 16-of-20 heater, the tout projects 4–5 Ks and likes the under on any line posted at 5.5 or higher.

Jovan Burts said the Yankees are a strong first-five innings play at minus 1.5 runs (+200) in Toronto. His case centers on Carlos Rodon’s current form—eight shut-out innings in his last start—and the Blue Jays’ ugly splits versus left-handed pitching, batting below the Mendoza line over their last five such games. Burts added that Kevin Gausman ‘will be in real trouble,’ forecasting New York to jump on him early and hold a multi-run cushion by the sixth. With the Yankees three games back after being swept by Toronto two weeks ago, Burts expects an urgent, fast start and labels the 2-to-1 payout a value spot to double up.

Jay Yang said to back the Yankees at -115 because he trusts Carlos Rodon more than Kevin Gaussman right now. Yang reminded listeners that Toronto still leads the division at 57-41 with a 32-16 record at Rogers Centre, yet Gaussman’s form versus New York has cratered: three of his last four outings against the Yankees produced six-plus earned runs and a 7.71 ERA in only 4.2 combined innings. Although Gaussman’s career line against the Bronx Bombers is a respectable 3.01 ERA over 31 appearances, Yang believes those recent blow-ups signal underlying issues the Yankees’ improving lineup—fresh off a productive series against Atlanta—can exploit. Rodon’s track record versus Toronto is mixed (4.85 ERA, 50 K in 42.2 IP across eight starts), but Yang highlighted encouraging 2025 meetings (five innings, two earned on June 30; 5.1 innings, three earned on Aug 2024) as evidence the left-hander is trending upward. With a live offense and the current starting-pitcher edge, Yang expects New York to overcome the Jays’ strong home mark and advised bettors to list both pitchers when grabbing the short road price.

Dylan Rockford fired on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home-run prop versus Carlos Rodon. Guerrero went yard Sunday and now faces a left-hander lugging a 5.47 road ERA and 1.8 HR/9 away from the Bronx. Rockford highlighted Vlad’s career .606 SLG against southpaws at Rogers Centre and his recent spike in launch angle that has produced four barrels in the last week. Toronto as a club mashes at home (.275/.345/.458) while Rodon’s four-seamer has been tattooed for a .289 xBA and .548 xSLG this season. Given Guerrero’s history of punishing elevated fastballs, Rockford likes him to leave the yard again at prices of +350 or better.

Malcom Bamford said the only side worth taking is Toronto at even money or better. He pointed to the Jays’ .275 team average at Rogers Centre and 20-plus runs scored over the weekend, noting they are 5-2 against New York this season with four straight wins. Bamford hammered the Yankees’ leaky bullpen and Carlos Rodon’s road woes (5.47 ERA away from the Bronx), adding that New York has lost three of Rodon’s last four starts as chalk (-142, ‑144, ‑166). He called the Yankees’ Monday win in Atlanta ‘more luck than judgment’ and trusts Kevin Gausman’s steadiness far more than the Bombers’ current form. With Toronto cruising at home and the Yankees repeatedly burning backers, Bamford is happy to fire on the Jays until the price drifts past –105.

Rockford will ride the Jays at near-even money after they swept the Giants and rolled into the break swinging hot sticks. Toronto is slashing .275 at Rogers Centre and plated 20-plus runs over the weekend. They have also dominated the season series, winning five of seven and four in a row against New York. He still distrusts the Yankee bullpen and notes that Carlos Rodon’s road ERA is materially worse than his home mark. Even though his model made New York a slight favorite, the situational edge, recent offensive form, and bullpen gap push him firmly to the Toronto side.

Scott Reichel said the money-line price on New York (-125) is cheap given the current pitching matchup. Clarke Schmidt strung together three straight scoreless starts before a six-inning, four-run hiccup in Oakland, and Reichel noted his underlying numbers — 27.8 K%, 3.18 xFIP over his last month — are markedly better than Chris Bassitt’s. Bassitt owns a sparkling 2.60 ERA at Rogers Centre but was shelled at Fenway his last time out and has watched his swinging-strike rate dip below 9 %. Reichel expects Schmidt’s strikeout upside to play against a Toronto lineup that ranks 26th in wOBA versus right-handed four-seamers. With the Yankees’ bats scuffling, he projects a tight, low-scoring affair yet still gives New York the edge because Schmidt is in better form and Bassitt’s home splits are masking declining stuff. He called 4-3 Yankees his most likely score and advised taking the Bronx Bombers straight up rather than laying a run line.

Cash Out Sports Picks likes Toronto on the money line, leaning heavily on ace Chris Bassitt’s dominance at Rogers Centre. Bassitt is 5-0 with a 2.60 ERA in nine home starts, fanning 57 and surrendering just four homers. He has also limited the current Yankees roster to seven earned runs over 38.2 lifetime innings (44 K). New York’s power dips away from Yankee Stadium and Clarke Schmidt’s road ERA (3.71) is a full run higher than at home, making this a "tough test" against a Jays club that owns the AL’s second-best home batting average (.269) and 225 runs in their own park. With Toronto up 3-2 in the season series, the tout expects them to "secure the victory."

Eric Lindquist advised taking a sprinkle on Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s home-run prop if books hang anything north of +400 against Chris Bassitt. Lindquist stressed that Bassitt owns one of the most pronounced platoon splits in MLB, surrendering the bulk of his damage to left-handed bats (a .207 ISO and 1.56 HR/9 to LHB this season). Jazz, who has already taken Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios deep this series, remains locked in and will again carry the platoon edge. Lindquist believes the market is still pricing Chisholm like a league-average hitter, even though his 46% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate versus righties scream upside. With Bassitt’s heavy sinker/curve mix staying in the zone and Jazz seeing the ball well, Lindquist sees plus-money bombs as the most attractive way to attack this matchup.

Martin laid the short –120 road price with the Yankees. Clarke Schmidt brings a 3.00 ERA and already blanked Toronto for five innings of one-hit ball earlier this season. Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, coughed up two homers in five innings the last time he saw New York and is coming off a disastrous outing versus Boston (4 BB, 9 R in 2 IP). Across the full season the Yankees sport a +105 run differential and rank among MLB’s best offenses versus right-handed pitching. Toronto’s bullpen is the lone area of concern, but Martin prefers the Yankees’ edge in the rotation and lineup at only a 20-cent tax.

For his home-run prop, Dylan Rockford rode the hot bat of George Springer, who has already left the yard twice during the live recording. Rockford likes the matchup against Yankees rookie Will Warren, whose 5-plus road ERA and 11% walk rate have forced him over the heart of the plate. With the Rogers Centre roof likely closed, the park’s right-center power alley plays short, and Springer owns a .508 career SLG there. Rockford sees plus-425 or better as value on Springer to leave the yard again.

Dylan made Toronto –115 yet found them as an even-money home dog, so he pounced. Will Warren’s road ERA sits above 5.00 and his walk rate has spiked to 11% over the last month, something Dylan doesn’t want to back in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Jose Berrios, meanwhile, posted a 1.03 ERA at home in June, blanking the Yankees for 5.1 innings in April. Toronto is 3-0 in his last three home starts and has scored 16 runs in those outings. With both bullpens ranking top-6 in xFIP, Rockford believes the pitching advantage and home park familiarity justify crossing the street on the wrong favorite.

Cody Bellinger is 3-for-5 with a homer (.600) off Jose Berrios and has hits in 10 of his last 11 contests. The tout views him as a solid 1+ hit or total bases play.

Perrault is taking Toronto at +112 to finish a three-game sweep of New York. The Blue Jays have won 5-4 and 12-5 to open the series and are now just one game behind the Yankees in the AL East. Jose Berrios brings a 3.48 ERA, .227 opponent average, and a 5-1 team record in his last six starts at Rogers Centre. New York counters with rookie Will Warren, whose road ERA balloons to 5.54 with 23 earned runs allowed in 37.1 innings; he was shelled for seven runs in Los Angeles and owns a .265 opponent average away from the Bronx. Toronto’s lineup just tagged Yankee pitching for 12 runs and Springer logged a career-high seven RBI. Perrault is riding the hot offense, the superior starter, and plus money on a motivated home dog while fading a shaky New York bullpen.

B Wade backed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to eclipse 1.5 total bases versus New York right-hander Will Warren. Guerrero has hit this mark in 12 of his last 20 games and has not failed to reach it in back-to-back contests for more than a month. Warren enters with a 4-plus ERA and 1.30+ WHIP, surrendering plenty of loud contact. Guerrero produced three bases in the series opener and historically hits Yankee pitching well. Coming off a hitless night while teammates thrived, Wade views Wednesday as a classic Guerrero bounce-back and values the plus-money price that helps create a 3x parlay return.

Mark recommended New York’s team total Over 4.5/5.0 (–110 range) in Toronto, arguing that Max Scherzer’s fastball is down 1.6 mph and his hard-hit rate has climbed to 42 % in June. The Yankees just hung a 12-spot on the A’s and get Aaron Judge back in the heart of a lineup that owns MLB’s second-best wRC+ versus righties since mid-June. He sees a ‘feast-or-famine’ profile for Scherzer and expects New York to push five plus across in a dome environment where weather is controlled and the short porch in right can be exploited by several left-handed bats.

Just A Bet Outside recommended taking the Yankees team-total over 2.5 runs because he no longer trusts 40-year-old Max Scherzer to miss bats or work deep. Scherzer’s fastball velocity and slider bite have both dipped, and he has only five strikeouts with three walks through eight MLB innings this season. The tout reminded listeners that Scherzer posted a 4.00 ERA last year and looked similarly flat in his lone rehab start. New York’s offense has plated at least three runs in eight of its last 10 overall games, six of its last 10 against right-handed starters, and 70 percent of its road contests while averaging 5.0 runs away from Yankee Stadium. Toronto’s bullpen is coming off a heavy weekend and may be asked to cover multiple innings. With nine guaranteed trips to the plate as the road team, the host sees three runs as the floor, making the team-total over a viable stand-alone play or anchor leg in parlays.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as Monday’s premier hitter prop target because of his dominant history against Carlos Rodon. Guerrero is 8-for-12 lifetime versus the Yankee left-hander with three extra-base hits, including a home run. On a smaller eight-game slate the host called it the standout individual matchup, suggesting bettors consider total bases, hit props, or DFS captain exposure. The analysis leans on the perfect blend of a right-handed power bat facing a southpaw he has already tagged for a .667 average and a .917 slugging percentage.

Dylan Rockford said he will lay as much as –140 with the Yankees in Toronto. His model made New York exactly –140, and he is comfortable firing at that number because Max Scherzer has looked shaky in his first two Blue Jay outings—both Toronto losses—and has yet to work past the fifth inning. Rockford noted that New York is crushing on the road, batting .261 away from the Bronx and coming off a double-digit run outburst earlier in the day. He doubts the Jays can generate enough offense to keep up while Scherzer is still getting stretched out, so anything at –140 or better is a green light.

Razzle advised steering clear of Max Scherzer in DFS. The 39-year-old looked rusty in his first start back from the IL and now faces a surging Yankee lineup. Razzle questioned whether Scherzer’s velocity and slider bite will ever fully return, noting mounting injuries and diminishing whiffs. With more appealing options in the same salary tier, he labeled Scherzer a full fade on this slate.

Razzle said Carlos Rodon is firmly in play on the six-game slate even though Toronto owns the lowest strike-out rate in baseball. Rodon’s Yankee Stadium splits remain excellent—higher WHIP but still an elite strike-out percentage—and his individual history against this batting order shows a 25 % K-rate (22 punch-outs over 86 plate appearances). The only hitter who has really hurt him is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (8-for-12, 3 BB, 0 K). On a slate lacking many aces, Razzle believes Rodon’s raw ceiling at $9.4K on DraftKings outweighs the matchup risk.

B Wade called Vladimir Guerrero Jr his favorite play of the slate, taking OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Vlad is 8-for-12 (.667) with a homer and ZERO strikeouts in 12 career plate appearances versus Carlos Rodon, despite Rodon owning one of MLB’s higher K-rates. Guerrero has eclipsed this prop in 13 of his last 20 games and rarely strings together more than two poor outings all year. Wade even floated taking 1.5 total bases at plus money but opted for the safer HRR over in a three-leg slip, citing Guerrero’s elite track record against Rodon and season-long consistency.