Aaron Larson noted Jaylen Warren scored just once on 167 opportunities in 2024, the worst rate among qualifying backs (0.07 TDs per game). Even including his first two years, Warren still averages 83.5 opportunities per touchdown, well below league norms. With Najee Harris gone and rookie Kaleb Johnson joining the room, Warren could see a volume bump, but Larson doubts it will translate into a sudden scoring surge based on the three-year track record. Fantasy managers should temper touchdown expectations and view him as a yardage-based flex rather than a reliable scorer.

Aaron Larson called David Montgomery one of the best draft values of 2025. Despite 0.86 touchdowns per game (eighth among RBs) and a surprise 2.24 yards per route run that helped him rank RB18 overall, Montgomery is being selected in Round 5 as RB21. Larson acknowledged the receiving efficiency will likely regress (career 1.13 YPRR before 2024) but stressed Montgomery’s 82.1 % rate of finishing as a top-24 back over the past two seasons — fourth-best in the league — provides an unusually stable weekly floor relative to cost.

Aaron Larson cautioned that Jahmyr Gibbs’ league-leading 1.18 touchdowns per game in 2024 was fueled by a late-season surge when David Montgomery was sidelined. Gibbs averaged 23.3 opportunities and a 66 % snap share during that stretch versus 17.7 opportunities and 0.97 TDs per game across his career sample. Larson expects both usage and touchdown rate to settle near those career numbers if Gibbs and Montgomery stay healthy, making Gibbs — currently going in the first round — a pick that already prices in his absolute ceiling.

Aaron Larson highlighted that James Cook rocketed from two rushing touchdowns in 2023 to 16 in 2024, scoring once every 12.9 carries (63.1 yards per TD) – almost twice as efficient as the league average and nearly ten times better than his own 2023 rate of 118.5 carries per TD. With the Bills’ coaching staff, usage (46 fewer carries year over year) and offensive scheme all unchanged, Larson chalked the spike up to pure touchdown luck and expects Cook’s 2025 scoring to land somewhere between the extremes of the past two seasons, making him a fade at any price that assumes another top-10 finish.

Aaron Larson pointed out that Saquon Barkley’s first year with Philadelphia produced 5.8 yards per carry on 325 attempts and a league-leading 2,005 rushing yards – numbers that pushed him onto the same short historical list as Henry. Barkley’s career mark prior to 2024 was 4.7 YPC, and Larson expects 2025 production to fall closer to that baseline. He still views Barkley as an elite fantasy RB but advises building in regression when projecting totals rather than assuming another historic efficiency season.

Aaron Larson said Derrick Henry’s 2024 season (345 carries, 5.9 yards per attempt, 1,921 rushing yards) put him in truly rare company – only O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders and Adrian Peterson had previously topped 5.8 YPC on 300-plus carries. Larson noted Henry’s career average sits at 4.9 YPC and expects that to be a much better guide for 2025. The Baltimore run game is still a plus environment, so Henry should remain an every-week starter, but Larson warned drafters not to pay 2024’s historic efficiency price again because a dip back toward the career norm is the likeliest outcome.

Aaron Larson highlighted Marvin Mims’ 12.2 yards after catch per reception as a number destined to fall. Since PFR began tracking the stat in 2018, Deebo Samuel (10.0 in 2021) is the only other WR to reach double digits, and no one else has topped 9.0. Mims barely met the 50-target threshold with 52 looks and never exceeded a 50% snap share, ranking fifth in Broncos routes behind Lil’Jordan Humphrey and rookie Troy Franklin. Larson noted Mims’ elite open-field juice keeps his ceiling intact, but any bump in volume should drag his YAC/rec down, meaning drafters should not price in another record-setting efficiency season.

Aaron Larson warned that Terry McLaurin’s 9.0 targets per touchdown—13 scores on 117 looks—is almost certain to regress. The Commanders’ top target had never surpassed seven TDs before 2024 and accounted for more than half of Jayden Daniels’ 25 scoring throws. No other Washington wideout cleared three TDs, and only TE Zach Ertz reached seven. Although Daniels could progress and newcomer Deebo Samuel has averaged only 3.7 TDs per season, Larson views McLaurin’s single-digit target-to-TD ratio as unrepeatable and advises fantasy managers to project a step back toward his career norms.

Aaron Larson labeled DJ Moore’s 9.9 yards per reception a one-year blip. Moore averaged 14.3 YPR prior to 2024 and had never dipped below 12.4. Larson blamed Shane Waldron’s sputtering offense for the collapse—Chicago’s passing game ranked near the bottom until the mid-season firing. With play-caller Ben Johnson arriving and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams expected to take a step forward, Larson anticipates Moore’s efficiency returning to his historical range, framing 2024 as an anomaly and positioning Moore as a value if drafters overweight last season’s short-area usage.

Aaron Larson called Alec Pierce’s league-leading 22.3 yards per reception and 22.8-yard aDOT the very definition of an outlier. Only six NFL WRs have cleared the 20-yard mark in the past decade and none have done it twice; Pierce’s 22.3 tops them all, with Christian Watson’s 21.4 in 2024 the next closest. Pierce delivered four top-ten weekly finishes but eight weeks outside the top-50 on his way to WR37 overall. Larson expects Pierce to remain a vertical threat yet projects his per-catch average to slide well below 20, advising fantasy gamers to view 2024’s video-game efficiency as unsustainable boom-or-bust production.

Aaron Larson said Puka Nacua’s 3.56 yards per route run from 2024 is historically lofty and unlikely to repeat in 2025. Nacua was the only receiver to clear the 3.0 mark last season and joined a short list that includes Tyreek Hill’s 3.82 in 2023 and Steve Smith’s 2008 explosion. Larson noted Nacua still projects as an elite option—he was WR6 on a per-game basis despite playing 50% of the snaps in only nine contests—but warned drafters to bake in efficiency regression toward his still-strong 2.59 figure from 2023 rather than count on another 3.5+ outlier.