Caplan advised passing on Abdul Carter for Defensive Rookie of the Year at +250. While the Giants took Carter third overall, Caplan questioned how many snaps the rookie will see with Kayvon Thibodeaux entrenched and Brian Burns occupying the other edge spot. If Carter winds up a sub-package rusher, his chances of racking up the sack totals necessary for DROY honors plummet, making the short price far too rich in Caplan’s eyes.

Caplan labeled Falcons edge rusher Jalen Walker his top Defensive Rookie of the Year sleeper at +900. He emphasized that Walker is already penciled in as a Day-1 starter—something Atlanta has desperately needed after years of whiffing on pass-rush help under GM Terry Fontenot. A full complement of snaps in an attack-minded scheme gives Walker a realistic shot at double-digit sacks, the traditional DROY stat voters gravitate toward. With favorite Abdul Carter sitting at +250 despite uncertain playing time, Caplan views Walker’s 9-to-1 ticket as the best blend of upside and opportunity on the board.

Caplan identified Rams edge rusher Jared Verse as a ‘great sleeper, dark horse’ for Defensive Player of the Year at +2200. After a terrific rookie campaign, Caplan expects Verse to take a second-year leap and believes Raheem Morris’ attack-minded scheme can unlock double-digit sacks. The 22-to-1 price gives bettors ample upside on a young pass-rusher who will generate plenty of highlight-reel plays if the projection hits.

For Defensive Player of the Year, Caplan is backing Jalen Carter at +1800. He pointed out that Carter was double-teamed more than any lineman in football last season yet still dominated, labeling the Eagle ‘unstoppable.’ Caplan expects a jump in sack totals now that Philadelphia has upgraded its edge group, which should free Carter for even more splash plays. At 18-to-1 he offers a far better return than favorites Myles Garrett (+700) or Micah Parsons (+750).

Caplan’s Offensive Player of the Year pick is Bijan Robinson at +1200. He noted Robinson’s production climbed from his rookie campaign and called the third-year Falcon a ‘special back’ who piles up yardage as both a runner and receiver while finishing drives with touchdowns. With only Saquon Barkley (+500) and Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000) showing shorter numbers, Caplan thinks Robinson’s mix of volume, highlight plays and team-centered game plan makes the 12-to-1 ticket undervalued.

Caplan singled out Justin Herbert as his favorite long-shot MVP bet at +2000. He said the Chargers ‘finally got him help,’ pointing to an upgraded supporting cast and the arrival of Jim Harbaugh to steady the sideline. Caplan believes improved coaching, better protection and a deeper receiver room will let Herbert put up gaudy passing numbers. If Los Angeles pushes for 10-plus wins, the 20-to-1 ticket could pay off handsomely, making Herbert his preferred sprinkle in the MVP futures market.

Adam Caplan said he actually cast his vote for Lamar Jackson and is betting the Ravens quarterback at +500 to win the AP MVP. Caplan reminded listeners the award covers the entire regular season, not just a hot stretch, and argued Jackson delivered the most complete 17-game body of work in 2023 while Josh Allen merely caught fire late. Jackson already owns a previous MVP and led Baltimore to the AFC’s best record, giving voters a narrative the other candidates lack. Caplan compared the rest of the market – Allen (+600), Patrick Mahomes (+650) and Joe Burrow (+700) – and concluded Jackson’s 5-to-1 return is still worth an investment.