Adam Kaufman argued the Jaguars are a sharp over on the 7.5-win line. He rattled off every piece of positive regression he expects: a brutal minus-15 turnover differential, a 1-4 record in field-goal-margin games and league-average sack rate should all swing toward the mean. Kaufman also likes the schematic reset—new DC Anthony Campanile replacing Ryan Nielsen, who forced Josh Allen, Travon Walker and Andre Cisco to play at unnatural weights—and the return of a healthy Trevor Lawrence plus Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. Put it together and Kaufman grades last year’s three-win outfit as a true .500 roster that simply ran ice-cold. His actionable advice: bet Over 7.5 wins at anything better than −130 and sprinkle a small flyer on Jacksonville to finish second in the AFC South behind Houston.

Adam Kaufman compared FanDuel’s season props of 3700.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence and argued the yardage over is reachable while the touchdown number remains dicey. He pointed to Liam Cohen’s new system that gives Lawrence “an answer for everything at the line,” plus field-stretchers like rookie Brian Thomas and the two-way dynamo Travis Hunter to juice chunk gains. However, Lawrence has never been a high-volume TD thrower (only 26 scores across his best 17-game split) and lost safety-blanket Evan Engram, which caps red-zone upside. Health remains the wild card after two injury-shortened seasons. Kaufman’s actionable angle: bet the over on yards but tread carefully—or even lean under—on touchdowns unless camp reports show significant red-zone growth.

Adam Kaufman recommended betting the Titans regular-season win total UNDER 5.5 at +135. After reviewing the schedule he could only "come up with possibly four spots" he likes for Tennessee, citing the brutal opening nine-week stretch, road games at Denver’s altitude and Houston’s rise inside the division. Kaufman noted the franchise managed just three victories last year and must break in a rookie quarterback and brand-new skill group, making six wins feel like a reach. He views the plus-money price as value given how hard it is to locate six realistic victories on the slate.

Adam Kaufman warned fantasy managers not to expect much from 32-year-old Tyler Lockett after his off-season move to Nashville. Kaufman said Lockett is “well past his prime” and projects him for no more than about 700 receiving yards if he stays healthy. With Calvin Ridley expected to operate as the clear No. 1 and Tennessee likely prioritizing developmental reps for rookie Cameron Ward, Kaufman views Lockett as a secondary option whose best-case yardage ceiling makes him an avoid in season-long drafts and an under candidate in any yardage prop market.

Adam Kaufman said bettors should look to back the Bengals in August exhibition games because Zach Taylor has publicly vowed to play his veterans more than usual this preseason. Cincinnati traditionally sits its stars, but Taylor wants a sharper Week-1 start after years of slow Septembers, so Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and other first-teamers are expected to log meaningful snaps. Kaufman believes that talent edge versus opponents still running second- and third-stringers makes Cincinnati an attractive side on preseason point-spreads and moneylines.