Adam Pelletier endorsed Bailey Ober OVER 4.5 strikeouts, backing the Rhythm model’s top edge for Monday. Pelletier highlighted that after a rocky season debut, Ober has settled in with a 2.37 ERA and 25.4% K-rate over his last four starts while averaging 92 pitches. The retooled Guardians lineup is far more swing-happy than past iterations, ranking 21st in contact rate and striking out nearly three times per game more than last season’s unit. Ober’s 6-foot-9 frame creates a steep downhill plane that historically bothers Cleveland (career 27.8% K-rate against them). With Minnesota stretched to five relievers in yesterday’s extra-inning loss, Pelletier expects manager Rocco Baldelli to ride Ober deep enough to see the order twice and log 90+ pitches. Combining form, workload, and a newly whiff-prone opponent, Pelletier believes five or more punch-outs are the most likely outcome and will use the play in his primary Underdog entry.

Adam Pelletier advised taking Griffin Canning UNDER 15.5 outs recorded (essentially betting he fails to complete six innings) at even money. Pelletier noted that Canning has been stretched for high pitch counts recently but still is not missing bats—his strikeout rate sits below league average—making it tough for him to record quick outs. Washington’s lineup is a particularly bad matchup for a low-whiff pitcher; the Nationals rank near the bottom of MLB in strikeout percentage and have been swinging the bats much better of late, as evidenced by Sunday’s late offensive explosion. Pelletier added that Saturday’s rain-delay game forced some funky bullpen usage for L.A., meaning manager Ron Washington is likely to be cautious with Canning’s workload and bridge to the pen once he gets through five frames. All told, Pelletier expects Canning to throw roughly 80–85 pitches and exit in the fifth, making the under 15.5 outs a solid plus-EV play.

Adam Pelletier advised betting Jack Flaherty UNDER 17.5 outs recorded at +143. Pelletier argued Flaherty looks banged-up and has cleared 17.5 outs only twice in his last 10 outings. On the road he owns a 5.28 FIP, a noticeably lower strike-out rate, and a higher walk rate, making it unlikely he lasts six full innings. Houston’s lineup has heated up over the past two weeks (4th-lowest K-rate, 116 WRC+, at least 10 hits in four of their last six home games), so constant traffic should push Flaherty’s pitch count. Detroit’s rested bullpen and Reese Olson starting the next day further reduce any incentive for A.J. Hinch to let Flaherty work deep. Pelletier labeled the plus money as ‘bonkers’ and suggested playing it to win one unit.

Pelletier endorsed taking Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER his posted strikeout prop (line not specified on‑air), arguing that the Japanese ace’s current form makes the matchup secondary. He called Yamamoto "just elite right now," pointing out the Rangers are not a high‑strikeout team yet still believes Yamamoto’s combination of swing‑and‑miss stuff and efficiency can clear the number. The conversation noted that Yamamoto has been virtually untouchable lately, surrendering very little contact, and Pelletier framed the play as betting on talent over opponent tendencies.

Adam Pelletier circled Matt Olson’s matchup with Chris Paddack as a smash spot and played OVER 1.5 total bases. Pelletier’s entire thesis was built on "fading Paddack"—a pitcher he clearly does not trust—while backing Olson’s prodigious power. He even floated an Olson home‑run sprinkle before settling on the safer total‑bases prop, noting a single double or homer would cash. Reichel co‑signed the play, agreeing that a vulnerable Paddack gives Olson multiple paths to two bases. Pelletier expects Atlanta’s first baseman to either drive one deep or at least lace an extra‑base knock against the Minnesota right‑hander’s hittable stuff.

Trusting Rhythm’s projection model, Adam Pelletier took Jackson Job OVER 3.5 strikeouts. The Royals whiff 25% of the time on the road and 24.5% versus right‑handed pitching away from Kauffman Stadium. Pelletier compared the spot to Thursday’s Kumar Rocker play—another low‑K prospect who still cashed against the same free‑swinging lineup. Job’s plus slider generated a 32% swinging‑strike rate in Triple‑A, and Detroit generally lets its young arms reach 85–90 pitches. With Kansas City much tamer outside its hitter‑friendly park, Pelletier sees four to six punch‑outs as a realistic range and is happy to ride the “robot overlords” recommendation.

Adam Pelletier grabbed Zack Wheeler OVER 18.5 outs recorded at plus money, expecting the Phillies ace to clear six full innings. Pelletier pointed out that Wheeler has topped this number in three of four starts despite a rare clunker versus Atlanta, a lineup that never chases. Miami is the opposite: the Marlins rank bottom‑five in walk rate, slugging and pitches per plate appearance. Wheeler owns an 11‑2 record and 2.30 ERA against them for his career and routinely works into the mid‑90s in pitch count. With Miami lacking both patience and power, Pelletier projected 6.1–7.0 innings and called the plus‑odds mis‑priced for a proven workhorse.