Alex Selesnick pitched Jahmyr Gibbs as an Offensive Player of the Year sleeper. Gibbs produced 20 total touchdowns while sharing work with David Montgomery last season; Selesnick expects an even larger workload now that Detroit is prepared to feature him. He anticipates the Lions defense regressing, which should push games toward high-scoring environments that maximize Gibbs’s explosive dual-threat skill set. Calling Gibbs "as talented as any running back in the NFL,” Selesnick forecast a monster stat line that would keep him in the OPOY conversation.

Alex Selesnick went "all in" on Baker Mayfield to clear 40 passing touchdowns again. Mayfield is coming off a 4,500-yard, 40-TD campaign and now gets first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka alongside Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, red-zone weapon Jalen McMillan, and breakout TE Cade Otton. With Tristan Wirfs healthy, Selesnick calls the Buccaneers’ line a top-three unit and loves that all five starters return. He believes the offense can be "historically good," giving Mayfield a realistic path to repeat as the league’s touchdown leader at juicy odds.

Alex Selesnick took Travis Kelce over 4.5 receiving touchdowns. He noted Kansas City’s passing attack cratered in 2024, but expects greater efficiency in 2025 and anticipates Kelce shifting into a red-zone specialist role as he ages. Given Patrick Mahomes’ trust in Kelce and the lack of proven WR options, Selesnick believes hitting five TDs is a conservative projection.

Alex Selesnick took Matthew Golden under 750.5 receiving yards. Golden struggled versus man coverage at Texas—an indicator Selesnick calls a red flag for first-year wideouts. Green Bay’s offense remains run-heavy and already spreads looks among several weapons, so Selesnick doubts Golden earns a full-time role. He sees the rookie functioning mainly as a situational deep threat and forecasts a difficult adjustment period, making 750 yards far too aggressive.

Alex Selesnick played Travis Hunter over 750.5 receiving yards. Hunter needs just 45 yards per game, and preseason usage (11 of 12 first-team snaps) showed the Jaguars plan to feature him offensively while easing defensive snaps. With Kirk, Engram and Gabe Davis gone, only Brian Thomas sits ahead of Hunter on the depth chart, so Selesnick projects an every-down role. He believes the number is depressed due to two-way-player concerns and thinks a fair line would be 850–900 yards.

Alex Selesnick backed Alvin Kamara over 750 rushing yards, noting the veteran topped 900 yards in only 14 games last season. New play-caller Kellen Moore will funnel the offense through Kamara, and there is “very minimal” depth behind him—Kendre Miller is still unproven and battling durability issues. Selesnick praised a Saints offensive line that now boasts four first-rounders, including consecutive top-15 tackles Taliese Fuaga and Kelvin Banks, and believes Kamara could hit the number in 12–13 games with several 100-yard outings.

Alex Selesnick said he is hammering Aaron Rodgers to finish below 23.5 season-long passing touchdowns. He would have opened the prop at 21.5–22.5 because Arthur Smith’s offenses have ranked near the bottom of the league in pass rate and passing TDs three straight years. Selesnick expects Pittsburgh to rely on its run game and defense, limiting overall drop-backs. He also questioned Rodgers’ durability at this stage of his career and called the current receiving corps—headlined by an inconsistent DK Metcalf—the weakest Rodgers has ever worked with, especially in the red-zone. Those factors give Selesnick “so many ways” for the veteran to stay under the posted total.

Alex Selesnick is under 23.5 touchdown passes for Aaron Rodgers. He stressed that Arthur Smith’s offenses have been among the league’s most run-oriented and conservative, capping passing volume and scores. Pittsburgh plans to lean on defense, shorten games, and grind clock—a script that rarely yields 24+ TDs. Selesnick also flagged durability concerns for Rodgers at this stage of his career, increasing the chance he misses games. He personally would set the line at 21–22, making 23.5 an easy fade.

Alex Selesnick backed Bryce Young to beat 3,150 passing yards, noting it translates to only 187 per game. Young finished last year on a nine-TD, zero-INT tear over four contests and now gets head coach Dave Canales, whom Selesnick called a proven quarterback whisperer. Carolina shored up protection and drafted wideout Tetairoa McMillan—comped to Mike Evans—to give Young a true top target. With better weapons and scheme plus the confidence gained late in 2024, Selesnick doesn’t believe Young even needs a "big" season to clear this prop.