Alex Seliznick said he would still take the Chiefs over 11.5 wins at even money, projecting a 12-to-13-victory season. He acknowledged Kansas City owns the fifth-hardest schedule by projected win totals and plays in an upgraded AFC West, yet he trusts the Andy Reid–Patrick Mahomes pairing, a defense he ranks top-5, and offseason help on the offensive line to offset expected regression from last year’s 11-0 record in one-score games. Because Mahomes has never finished below 11 wins, Seliznick views 12 as the median outcome and sees slight value on the over rather than the under.

Alex Seliznick advised passing on Mahomes’ MVP odds, arguing the Chiefs care more about postseason health than regular-season stat chasing. He expects a balanced approach that leverages a top defense and ground game, projecting sub-5,000-yard, sub-40-TD numbers—production he believes won’t outshine volume candidates like Joe Burrow. With the AFC crowded, Seliznick prefers allocating futures money elsewhere.

Alex Seliznick hammered the over on Patrick Mahomes’ 27.5 passing-touchdown prop (-115). Mahomes has averaged 35 TD passes since becoming a starter and has never finished below 29. Seliznick expects Kansas City to "open it up" with a healthy Hollywood Brown, second-year burner Xavier Worthy, a reinstated Rashee Rice, and of course Travis Kelce. Behind a fortified line featuring new LT Jalen Moore, Seliznick projects 32-plus touchdowns, making the current line at least four or five scores too low.

Alex Seliznick preferred Arizona to MAKE the playoffs at +135 over laying –120 on the 8.5-win total. He argued that the broader NFC landscape is weaker than in recent seasons and at least one West team must qualify. With what he considers a friendly schedule, an improved pass rush, and Kyler Murray surrounded by playmakers, Seliznick pegs the Cardinals’ ceiling at 11 wins. The plus-money price captures scenarios where nine wins sneaks them into the postseason, delivering a better payout than a standard over ticket.

Alex Seliznick endorsed betting the Cardinals at +450 to win the NFC West, calling the division “wide open.” He was under-whelmed by San Francisco’s offseason (no splash signings, mediocre draft) and sees the Rams as good but hardly dominant. Seliznick thinks Arizona’s ceiling rests on a defense that could crack the top-10 after adding proven pass-rushers Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell, disruptive rookie DT Walter Nolen, cornerback Will Johnson, and run-stuffer Dalvin Tomlinson—exactly the personnel defensive-minded HC Jonathan Gannon wants. If that unit gels while Kyler Murray bounces back, Seliznick believes Arizona can match or exceed any West rival, making +450 “solid value” compared to their implied probability.

Alex Seliznick advised taking the OVER on Kyler Murray’s 3,400.5-yard passing prop at –110. Seliznick reminded viewers that Murray admitted his reconstructed ACL “hurt on every drop-back” last season yet he still finished with a better completion rate than Patrick Mahomes and matched Mahomes in QBR. With a full offseason of rehab, Seliznick expects fewer designed runs and more roll-outs that keep Murray upright—exactly where he does his best work. The supporting cast is upgraded: Marvin Harrison Jr. in year two, Trey McBride emerging as a top-10 tight end, and James Conner plus Trey Benson offering check-down outlets. Seliznick projects Arizona to be in numerous tight or negative game scripts, pushing Murray’s drop-back volume into the 550-plus range. If health cooperates, he sees a 3,700-yard season—comfortably clearing the posted total.