Alex Selznick advised passing on—or outright fading—the Texans’ "Yes to make playoffs" price of –140. He believes Houston’s only realistic path is winning the AFC South, because the wild-card race in a stacked AFC is too deep. Rather than laying juice on –140, Selznick would prefer the even-money division ticket or take the plus-money "No" to make the postseason, given that he does not expect two playoff teams to emerge from the South.

Alex Selznick argued that the Texans at +100 to win the AFC South are over-valued. He would make the fair line closer to +150 or even +200 because Houston failed to upgrade its offensive and defensive lines, lost LT Laremy Tunsil, and did not widen the gap on Jacksonville, Indianapolis, or Tennessee. Selznick sees only a "soft" division keeping them in the race and prefers passing—or fading—at the current even-money price.

Alex Selznick (PropStars) said to bet the over on Nico Collins 1,150-yard season prop. Selznick noted Collins ranks top-three league-wide in yards per route run and was given the second-shortest odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards, sitting right behind Ja’Marr Chase. Despite durability concerns, Collins has produced like a true No. 1 every time he’s been on the field; Selznick believes 13 healthy games is enough for him to clear 1,150 yards given C.J. Stroud’s accuracy and Houston’s deeper receiver room that will prevent constant double-teams. In short, advanced efficiency plus projected volume equals an easy over if health cooperates.

Alex Selznick advised staying away from JSN’s 925.5-yard and 5.5-TD props until more information surfaces. He loves the player but worries about context: Sam Darnold’s arrival means reduced passing volume; DK Metcalf’s absence forces Smith-Njigba to play outside more often instead of his collegiate slot comfort zone; and the chemistry between Darnold and JSN is a complete unknown—Darnold could lean on veteran Cooper Kupp. Selznick said the numbers look beatable but prefers to watch preseason usage and route distribution before committing bankroll.

Alex Selznick rejected Seattle at +500 to win the NFC West, saying their realistic ceiling is third place and a .500 record. He views the switch from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold as a downgrade, forecasts lower passing efficiency, and expects Pete Carroll’s offense to remain run-heavy. Selznick also praised the Rams’ offseason, believes the 49ers remain talented even with some regression, and thinks an improved Cardinals roster with a healthy Kyler Murray can leapfrog Seattle. Given those dynamics, he would not tie up bankroll on the Seahawks’ long-shot divisional ticket.

Alex Selznick said the 20.5 passing-touchdown prop for Sam Darnold is too ambitious and advised betting the under at ‑110. Last season was the first time Darnold topped 20 TDs, and that came in a perfect Minnesota setup featuring Kevin O'Connell's QB-friendly offense, elite protection and healthier skill talent. Selznick called Seattle a downgrade across the board: DK Metcalf is out, the line is shakier and he expects Pete Carroll to revert to a ground-heavy approach with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Darnold has never played more than 13 games in a season besides 2023; if that pattern repeats, he would need to average 1.6 TDs per start to clear the number—something Selznick views as unlikely.