Andrew Erickson grabbed Tetairoa McMillan at 16-to-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, arguing the 2025 class sets up perfectly for a non-quarterback winner. He reminded listeners that the last rookie wideout to claim the award—Garrett Wilson in 2022—needed only 83 catches, 1,100 yards and four touchdowns. Erickson doubts any passer besides Cam Ward has the profile to post the monster debut seasons we saw from C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, so fading the quarterback group opens the door for McMillan. He believes Dave Canales’ quick-strike attack will pepper the eighth overall pick with targets and that Carolina’s improved defense will keep games competitive, sustaining volume. The running-back field is deep but inherently fragile—Breece Hall’s 2022 injury was Erickson’s go-to example—so even modest durability issues elsewhere could vault McMillan into the lead. Erickson added that a potential Week-1 highlight against Jacksonville, where he envisions McMillan scoring over Jaguars corner Travis Hunter, would give the rookie an early narrative boost voters will remember.

Andrew Erickson officially bet the Buccaneers under 7.5 wins, reiterating the concerns he laid out earlier in the show. He again flagged Tristan Wirfs’ uncertain recovery timeline and Chris Godwin’s lingering ankle issues, both of which strip Baker Mayfield of protection and a reliable secondary target through the season’s first month. Erickson also pointed out that Mayfield will be breaking in his third offensive coordinator in three years after Liam Cohen’s departure, a trend that has historically produced slow starts for the veteran. Tampa opened 4-6 and 4-7 the last two seasons with healthier rosters, so Erickson does not see a clear path to eight victories in 2025 unless every single health variable breaks perfectly—an outcome he is comfortable fading.

Erickson called Saints to finish last in the NFC South at –105 "low-hanging fruit." He pegged their true ceiling at three wins, noting the roster reminds him of the 2023 Texans team that went 3-13-1 before hitting the reset button. With Tyrann Mathieu already retiring, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed dogged by durability concerns and a rookie QB battle between Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler, Erickson doubts Kellen Moore can salvage much. He prefers laying ‑105 for a last-place finish to paying heavier juice on the under 5.5 wins, and he added that sprinkling "worst record in the league" at 4-to-1 is worth consideration.

Erickson doubled down on Carolina to win the division at +350, noting the franchise fits his annual "last-place to first" betting angle. He pointed out the Panthers and Saints both finished 5-12, with a fifth tiebreaker (strength of victory) technically nudging Carolina to third place, meaning they were effectively a last-place team by record. Erickson compared the current Panthers to Dan Campbell’s 2021 Lions, who covered spreads late in the year before breaking through the following season. He thinks that late-season ATS surge plus a vulnerable Bucs roster (new OC, Tristan Wirfs’ health) and a Falcons defense full of holes sets up Bryce Young and a reinforced offensive cast to leapfrog the division in 2025.

Andrew Erickson said he is "all over" Carolina’s win total and is betting the over 6.5. Erickson expects the Panthers to start 2-1 thanks to an opening stretch of Jaguars, Cardinals and Falcons that features two neutral-to-positive matchups for Bryce Young. He likes that both Tampa meetings are stashed in Weeks 15 and 18, giving Carolina time to build momentum and, potentially, catch the Bucs while Tristan Wirfs or Chris Godwin are still less than 100 percent. Erickson believes the defense—re-anchored by Derrick Brown and a healthy J.C. Horn—will erase last year’s league-worst rushing numbers, allowing Dave Canales to stay aggressive on offense. He admitted he was a year early when he backed Carolina in 2024 but thinks improved health plus a late Week-14 bye set the table for an 8- or 9-win season.

Andrew Erickson said the 2025 Saints are a franchise begging to bottom out. He framed 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shuck as a "perfect tank quarterback, the guy you start when you *want* double-digit losses," and noted that GM Mickey Loomis has finally abandoned his annual win-now spending spree. Erickson expects impatient fans to be chanting "Tank for Arch(e) Manning" by mid-October because the schedule starts with several non-NFC-South matchups that could leave New Orleans 0-4 or 1-5. With Kellen Moore taking over a roster thin at both quarterback and wide receiver (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed still battling durability questions), Erickson is attacking the lowest win-total tiers on the board and sprinkling a "first overall pick" future at long odds, arguing there is far more downside than upside in 2025.

Andrew Erickson loved Carolina’s decision to draft Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall even though defense was the bigger need. He called the rookie "a monster in year one," praising McMillan’s size-speed combo and fit with Bryce Young. Erickson expects the Panthers’ defense to improve from last year’s bottom-feeder status—which should create more sustained drives and targets for T-Mac—and recommends aggressively drafting the rookie wideout in season-long and best-ball formats as an immediate fantasy contributor.

Andrew Erickson said bettors should approach Tampa Bay’s 2025 win total and September spreads with caution. He noted that both Chris Godwin (still rehabbing an ankle) and All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs are iffy for Week 1, stripping Baker Mayfield of a reliable No. 2 receiver and blind-side protection. Mayfield will also be learning under his third offensive coordinator in three seasons after Liam Cohen departed and internal hire Drosh Rizard took over. Erickson pointed out that even with healthier rosters the Bucs opened 4-6 and 4-7 the last two seasons, so he expects another slow launch if the injuries linger. His lean is toward the under on their win total and fading Tampa ATS in the first month.

With Woody Marks blocked in Houston, Erickson shifted his late-round exposure to Kyle Monangai. The Bears backfield lacks an established bell cow, and Erickson believes any offensive leap driven by Caleb Williams will be tied to a rookie breakout somewhere on the roster. Monangai’s north-south running style meshes with OC Shane Waldron’s zone concepts, giving him a reasonable chance to carve out goal-line work and spike-week upside at next-to-free cost.

Marks had been a priority late-round pick for Erickson, but that changed the moment Houston signed Nick Chubb. With a proven workhorse now atop the depth chart, Marks’ path to meaningful touches evaporated. Erickson is moving the rookie well down his board and prefers pivoting to Chicago’s Kyle Monangai, who offers a much cleaner runway to early-season touches.

Erickson told drafters to circle Bhayshul Tuten at his ADP of 19. A brand-new coaching staff has no allegiance to Travis Etienne or Tank Bigsby, and Tuten brings verified explosiveness that fits the system. In a format that rewards spike weeks from surprise breakouts, Erickson sees Tuten as one injury—or simply an eye-opening camp—from overtaking the depth chart and becoming a best-ball league winner.

While Erickson loves Emeka Egbuka’s long-term talent, he compared the rookie’s 2025 outlook to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023 and Rome Odunze in 2024—elite prospects who produced modest fantasy numbers right away. With established targets ahead of him in Tampa Bay, Erickson expects Egbuka to be a low-volume option who rarely cracks your optimized lineup. He advised tempering expectations or pivoting to backs and tight ends with clearer paths to spike weeks in a four-starter best-ball environment.

Erickson encouraged drafters to ‘reach’ on fourth-round pick Cam Skattebo, even taking him over day-two wide receivers. Rookie running backs are king in this contest, and Skattebo is discounted solely because he slid three spots into round four. Erickson noted that it would take only one Tyrone Tracy fumble for Skattebo to seize the Giants’ starting gig, at which point he would outscore most of the WR/TE names drafted ahead of him. The upside of landing a cheap workhorse outweighs the opportunity cost of passing on mid-tier receivers.

Erickson called Jalen Milroe his favorite value quarterback after Cam Ward. Seahawks brass have already talked about creating packages to get the former Alabama star on the field because of his legs, meaning Milroe could score usable fantasy points even before he overtakes Sam Darnold. If Darnold implodes or gets hurt, a dual-threat rookie suddenly becomes a weekly starter in this scoring system and would be valued like a first-rounder overnight. Erickson urged drafters to chase Milroe’s rushing upside instead of taking fringe rookie wideouts with lower ceilings.

Erickson said you have to ‘eat the chalk’ and take Cam Ward at 1.02 in Origins drafts. Ward projects as the only rookie quarterback with a realistic shot at starting all 17 games, and quarterbacks outscore every other position in this best-ball format. Erickson expects Ward to finish inside your top four scorers nearly every single week, giving him a weekly floor/ceiling combo no other rookie can match. Passing on him, in Erickson’s view, is sacrificing too many raw points for the sake of being contrarian.

Erickson advised passing on Quinshon Judkins at current ADP, calling him a traditional early-down banger who offers very little as a receiver. In a four-starter, best-ball format that demands spike weeks, he worries Judkins will be script-sensitive and need 20+ carries to matter. Erickson also labeled the Browns offense ‘gross’ for fantasy, lowering the odds Judkins even sees enough touchdown chances to offset his limited pass volume. He is pivoting to multi-faceted backs like TreVeyon Henderson or RJ Harvey instead.

Andrew Erickson leaned toward drafting TreVeyon Henderson ahead of the other tier-one rookie backs in FastDraft Origins. He noted that Henderson profiles as a modern, all-situations back who has already flashed reliable receiving skills, whereas Quinshon Judkins and Kaleb Johnson look like early-down grinders who will need heavy volume to score. Because Origins only starts four skill players and rewards spike weeks, Erickson wants the back who can pile up PPR points even when game scripts flip. The Patriots lack an entrenched three-down option, so Henderson’s pass-game ceiling gives him a better path to weekly top-four scores than the more one-dimensional rookies being drafted in the same neighborhood.

Andrew Erickson grabbed Travis Hunter at 12-1 for Defensive Rookie of the Year, laying out a clear path to the award. Jacksonville’s secondary allowed the third-most passing yards in 2023 and picked off only six passes, despite finishing 11th in passes defended and fifth-healthiest by adjusted games lost. Erickson expects natural turnover regression and thinks any spike in takeaways will be pinned on Hunter, the No. 2 overall pick and a proven ballhawk. Beat-writer reports say the Jaguars feel comfortable enough with his coverage skills that they may actually deploy him more on offense, then ramp up his defensive snaps when injuries strike. That game-plan variability lets Hunter compile highlight-reel interceptions, pick-sixes, and tackles while voters simultaneously admire his two-way workload. Because big counting stats are historically what sway ROY voters, Erickson believes Hunter’s unique usage plus Jacksonville’s likely turnover bounce make the 12-1 price a steal before preseason hype hits.

Andrew Erickson recommended a small wager on Tennessee to win the AFC South at +750. He argued the division is the NFL’s softest and noted that a worst-to-first rookie-QB narrative materializes almost every season. If Cam Ward strings together a handful of late-season upsets—helped by two cracks at the shaky Jaguars and the possibility of C.J. Stroud missing time behind Houston’s still-suspect offensive line—the Titans could sneak to 9-10 wins. Erickson views the bet as asymmetric: Houston’s price offers no upside, while Tennessee delivers a seven-to-one payoff in a race that could be decided by a single injury or coin-flip game.

Andrew Erickson urged bettors to fade Tennessee’s win total and weekly ATS lines even after drafting Cam Ward first overall. He reminded everyone the Titans went an abysmal 2-15 against the spread under Brian Callahan last year—one cover coming in an OT fluke versus New England—showing the market consistently overrated them. Erickson likes Ward’s upside but says the rookie shares Will Levis’ "hero-ball" turnover habit that Callahan despised. He doubts Ward can deliver a C.J. Stroud-style year-one leap behind a defense still short on talent, meaning the Titans will again struggle to meet even baseline expectations. Until Callahan curbs giveaways and schemes a functional offense, Erickson is taking the under on Tennessee futures and looking to short them early in the season.

Andrew Erickson backed Houston to clear its win total and repeat as AFC South champs despite lingering offensive-line worries. He pointed out that new OC Nick Haley arrives from the Rams with a Dante Scarnecchia-inspired protection scheme, while assistant OL coach Cole Popovich has New England pedigree. Houston has already won 20 games over the last two seasons with an OL that ranked 29th and 31st in PFF pass-block grade, so even a jump to "average" should boost C.J. Stroud’s efficiency. Erickson added that the Texans retained a top-10 pressure rate on defense, then paired Danielle Hunter with Will Anderson and re-signed C.J. Gardner-Johnson, giving them the only proven pass rush in a division whose other three teams all enter with rookie play-callers or shaky quarterback situations. In his view the path of least resistance makes Houston’s divisional futures and over 9.5 wins plus money buys.

Andrew Erickson said bettors should get some action on Travis Hunter in 2024 because the rookie simultaneously fills Jacksonville’s top two roster holes — outside receiver and cornerback — making him a "true unicorn" who will be on the field every snap. Erickson noted the Jaguars deliberately targeted Hunter to replace Calvin Ridley’s vacated targets while also upgrading a secondary that finished 30th in EPA per drop-back last year. The dual usage creates multiple paths to hit incentives, whether it’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, or weekly prop markets for receiving yards, interceptions and tackles. Given Liam Cohen’s wide-open scheme and Hunter’s college track record of 74 catches plus three INTs in 2023, Erickson believes the books are likely to mis-price his hybrid workload early in the season.

Erickson plans to bet Jordan Mason to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns once books post the market. He believes Kevin O’Connell’s offense will remain efficient inside the 10—especially with the McCarthy-to-Jefferson connection stretching defenses—and that veteran Aaron Jones will cede most goal-line carries to the 225-pound Mason. After watching Jones score just two rushing TDs on 11 carries inside the five last year, Erickson projects Mason for double-digit scores and views him as a live longshot in the league-leader market.

Andrew Erickson wants exposure to every Jordan Love passing over—yards, touchdowns, and eventually interceptions—because he expects Green Bay to live in track-meets. Sportsbooks have opened Love at just 3,500.5 yards and 24.5 TDs, numbers Erickson calls "really low" for a quarterback whose defense projects bottom-five in EPA after the front office ignored edge and secondary help. He anticipates 35-plus pass attempts most weeks, pointing to Love’s league-leading 10 games with 275+ yards last season when the Packers were forced into shootouts. While Erickson and Furman both doubt those stats translate into wins, the volume makes the overs attractive betting positions.

Andrew Erickson passed on the Vikings chalk and instead grabbed Chicago at +550 to win the North, citing the NFL’s long-standing "worst-to-first" phenomenon. Since divisional realignment in 2002, at least one last-place team has jumped to first in 18 of 22 seasons, and Erickson notes last year was one of just three exceptions. He argues the Bears are the only 2024 cellar-dweller with a realistic path: New England faces Buffalo, Tennessee must overtake Houston, while Chicago benefits from likely regression in Detroit and Green Bay and an untested rookie quarterback in Minnesota. Erickson believes Ben Johnson will immediately elevate Caleb Williams and views the +550 as mis-pricing that trend-driven upside.

Andrew Erickson likes the Vikings over 8.5 wins at –135 and sees merit in the +200 over 10.5. He pointed out that Kevin O’Connell has averaged 11.3 victories, topping 13 wins in two of three seasons when not ravaged by QB injuries. If J.J. McCarthy merely matches Sam Darnold’s 2024 efficiency, Erickson believes the Flores defense and an upgraded interior line create a clear double-digit ceiling. He will likely wait until after the Week-1 trip to Chicago for a better price but ultimately wants an over ticket in pocket.

Andrew Erickson leaned under 10.5 Lions wins at –125, citing a brutal six-game outdoor road schedule—Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia and two other winning teams—that replaces last year’s climate-controlled track meets. Erickson reminded listeners that Detroit played only two outdoor games in 2024 and believes Jared Goff’s well-documented cold-weather splits (career passer rating dips from 99 indoors to 84 outdoors) will show up. He respects Dan Campbell’s 63% ATS record but thinks market inflation, coordinator turnover and tougher travel combine to cap Detroit at nine or ten victories.

Andrew Erickson leaned under on the Packers’ 2025 win total, citing a roster that is "horrible up and down" on defense. Green Bay ignored glaring edge and secondary needs in the draft, choosing another wide receiver instead. While a healthy Jordan Love should juice fantasy box scores—Erickson envisions shoot-outs at Lambeau with Love’s YOLO style producing both splash plays and pick-sixes—he doubts that translates to wins. The Packers will have to hang 30+ regularly because they cannot stop anyone, and Love’s tendency to force throws when asked to carry the offense raises turnover risk. Erickson concluded the current market number is "pretty spot on" but would shade under, expecting more 34-31 type losses than victories.

Andrew Erickson predicted a two-phase season for Minnesota. Coming off a torn meniscus and a rookie red-shirt year, J.J. McCarthy missed every physical rep last offseason, so Erickson expects Kevin O’Connell to hide him early: bolster the interior line, feature Jordan Mason and the run game, and ask McCarthy to "make a couple key throws, be efficient, not turn it over." That run-heavy script could mean an underwhelming first month, but Erickson likes buying the Vikings in second-half futures or division markets because once McCarthy’s live-rep count rises, the system’s efficiency ceiling resembles the 13-win version we saw two years ago. Fantasy-wise, he recommends targeting Minnesota skill players in Best Ball formats that reward late-season scoring spikes.

Andrew Erickson echoed the fade on Detroit and leaned to the under on their win total. Erickson emphasized that coordinator turnover seldom leaves a team unscathed and compared the 2025 Lions to classic 'regression poster-children.' Beyond losing both coordinators, Detroit also has depth issues up front after Frank Ragnow’s departure. Erickson warned that if last year’s offensive injury luck flips, the club could suffer a bigger step back than the public expects because "good offenses stay good, bad defenses fluctuate"—and the Lions can’t afford hits on the side of the ball that actually carried them. Even with Dan Campbell’s stellar ATS record, Erickson sees too many variables breaking against Detroit to trust an over ticket.

In light of Nick Chubb landing in Houston, Erickson shifted his late-round running-back exposure to Kyle Monangai. He believes the Bears backfield is wide open behind Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, giving the bruising rookie a real path to short-yardage and touchdown work in an ascending offense that could pay off handsomely in a best-ball tournament.

Marks was once a priority pick for Erickson, but the Texans’ addition of Nick Chubb erased that enthusiasm. With Chubb likely to dominate early-down and goal-line work, Erickson now wants "nothing to do with" Marks in Gamma drafts and prefers pivoting to Bears rookie Kyle Monangai instead.

Projecting the Bears to take a major step in Year 1 under OC Shane Waldron and Year 2 of Caleb Williams, Erickson predicted that either tight end Colston Loveland or wideout Luther Burden will pop for massive rookie production. He leans toward sprinkling shares of both, banking on the offense generating enough volume and red-zone chances for at least one to emerge as a weekly top-12 option.

Erickson circled Bhayshul Tuten as a must-draft running back available around pick 19. He pointed out that Jacksonville’s new coaching staff has no loyalty to incumbents Travis Etienne or Tank Bigsby, opening the door for the rookie who posted elite explosive-run metrics in college. If Tuten earns even a 40-50% share, his big-play profile is tailor-made for best-ball spike weeks.

While Erickson loves Egbuka’s long-term talent, he warned that 2025 production could mirror Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 2023 and Rome Odunze’s 2024 slow starts. Tampa Bay already features Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, making it unlikely the rookie commands the elite targets necessary for weekly best-ball relevance. Erickson is tempering expectations and prefers other positions at Egbuka’s ADP.

Erickson advised aggressively drafting Cam Skattebo despite his Round-4 NFL draft capital. The analyst noted New York’s backfield hierarchy is fragile; a single Tyrone Tracy fumble could hand Skattebo the starting gig. Given that running backs drive more spike weeks than middling rookie wideouts, Erickson believes Skattebo will outscore most of the Day-2 WR class that currently goes earlier in Gamma drafts.

Erickson called Jalen Milroe his favorite late-round QB after Cam Ward. Seattle’s GM and Mike Macdonald have publicly discussed deploying Milroe in designed packages to leverage his rushing upside even if Sam Darnold opens the year as the starter. In a best-ball setting those gadget snaps can create random spike weeks, and if Darnold falters Milroe’s dual-threat game would vault him into first-round FastDraft value.

Citing plugged-in beat writer Nick Underhill, Erickson highlighted Tyler Shough as the likely 2025 Week 1 starter for New Orleans after the Saints spent early draft capital and new HC Kellen Moore hand-picked him. The path to immediate playing time makes Shough a priority mid-round quarterback in Origins drafts, especially with Moore’s history of pass-volume friendly offenses.

Erickson urged drafters to "eat the chalk" at 1.02 with Cam Ward, stating no rookie quarterback projects for 17 starts as cleanly as the new Titans signal-caller. Because quarterbacks supply the most total points in the Origins format and weekly lineups auto-optimize, Ward is almost certain to be one of a roster’s four scorers every week. Erickson labeled him the safest high-end ceiling among this class.

Erickson still likes RJ Harvey’s talent but expects his ADP to slide in Origins drafts now that Denver added J.K. Dobbins. He views the signing as an opportunity rather than a red flag, arguing that Harvey’s plus receiving profile and breakaway ability fit the best-ball format, and a cheaper price tag only sweetens the play if Dobbins fails to regain pre-injury form.

Erickson advised passing on Quinshon Judkins in the Gamma contest because the rookie projects as a volume-dependent two-down pounder tied to what he called a "gross" Browns offense. With limited pass-game usage expected and spike-week production heavily correlated to receptions in this best-ball scoring system, Erickson believes Judkins’ weekly floor and ceiling are both capped compared to backs with receiving chops going in the same draft range.

Andrew Erickson said he is prioritizing TreVeyon Henderson in FastDraft’s Origins rookie-only best-ball room because Henderson brings a proven receiving skill set that generates spike weeks without needing 20 carries. Erickson contrasted Henderson with early-down sluggers Quinshon Judkins and Kaleb Johnson, noting that Henderson can stay on the field in hurry-up situations and collect the full-PPR points the format rewards. He added that New England lacks an established three-down back, making Henderson’s dual-threat profile even more valuable.

Andrew Erickson said Kenneth Walker III is a smash pick at his late-third-round ADP because Seattle is about to lean on him like crazy. Greg Brainos pointed out that new offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak used 21 or 12 personnel on 50% of the Saints’ snaps last season, and Seattle coaches have echoed that run-first mentality all spring—talking up full-back usage, converting rookie tight end Robbie Utes into a lead blocker, and drafting athletic guard Gray Zabel to juice outside-zone and pin-pull concepts. Erickson added that Walker’s receiving concerns are overblown: he has just three drops on 46 career NFL targets and flashed soft hands in high-school camps; Michigan State simply never asked him to catch. If Walker stays healthy, Erickson projects 18-plus touches per game and a top-12 per-game finish, making him a priority best-ball target for spike-week potential.

Andrew Erickson pushed KaVontae Turpin as an 18th-round dart who can win weeks in best-ball formats. Turpin just signed the richest special-teams deal ever—Erickson reads that as a commitment to give him more offensive touches, not just return duties. He quoted Brian Schottenheimer calling Turpin "so special with the ball in his hands" and wanting to feature him, while pointing out Dallas lacks proven depth behind CeeDee Lamb (Jalen Tolbert "not a thing" and other fringe options uninspiring). With Mike McCarthy still dialing up a pass-heavy attack, Erickson expects the 4.3-speed receiver to pop for multiple 60-yard scores and a handful of 20-plus-point outings, making him a cheap differentiator for wide-receiver-thin builds.

Andrew Erickson told listeners to grab Keenan Allen shares now in case the veteran lands with Las Vegas. Erickson noted that new Raiders wide-receivers coach Chris Beatty has followed Allen from the Chargers to the Bears and would almost certainly scheme throws to his long-time pupil if the reunion happens. That familiarity, plus Chip Kelly’s no-huddle offense that could push 70 snaps per game, sets the stage for Allen to soak up double-digit targets even at age 32. Because best-ball ADP rarely bakes in hypothetical moves before they become official, Erickson believes Allen would still be available in the double-digit rounds when the news breaks—creating an immediate value spike for anyone who speculated early.

Erickson called Jakobi Meyers “one of the most underrated wideouts in the league” and a screaming value in the double-digit rounds. Meyers quietly cleared 1,000 yards for the first time last season and now plays in Chip Kelly’s lightning-fast offense that could push 75 snaps per game. Even if the Raiders skew run-heavy, that pace means their passing volume will still mirror more traditional offenses, preserving Meyers’ target floor. Erickson added that Geno Smith’s accurate short-to-intermediate game dovetails with Meyers’ slot route tree (his 71% catch rate on in-breaking routes ranked 6th among WRs). Given this high-floor usage and consistent red-zone involvement (16 end-zone targets over the last two years), Erickson believes Meyers should be drafted at least one to two rounds earlier than current ADP.

Erickson advocated snagging Rico Dowdle as an RB5/6, noting that new Panthers head coach Dave Canales recently called Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard "war daddies" who are built to handle volume. Canales’ Seahawks and Buccaneers offenses both fed a primary runner inside the 10 on more than 60% of red-zone plays, and Erickson expects a similar approach in Carolina’s post-Miles Sanders backfield. Dowdle already owns a 4.1 career YPC and flashed in limited pass-pro reps, giving him three-down contingency appeal if Hubbard falters. At a near-undrafted ADP, Erickson likes capturing a potential early-down hammer tied to a scheme that historically manufactures RB touchdowns.

Erickson pegged Chig Okonkwo as one of his favorite late tight-end sleepers. He pointed to Okonkwo’s mini-breakout over Tennessee’s final three 2024 games (17% target share and the TE8 in fantasy points during that stretch) and emphasized that the SAME Brian Callahan play-caller who fed him then is still in place. Callahan has publicly praised Okonkwo for “playing faster" and “gaining confidence,” praise Erickson trusts because Callahan was willing to blast Will Levis when the QB struggled last season. With only Calvin Ridley projected ahead of him for weekly looks and the Titans’ WR room otherwise unsettled, Erickson believes Okonkwo can realistically finish second on the team in targets during a contract year. Add in top-15 yards-after-catch efficiency among tight ends and you have a cheap best-ball option who can spike on big plays while still offering weekly volume.

Andrew Erickson signed off on taking Anthony Richardson as a 15th- or 16th-round flier in Best Ball Mania drafts, calling the Colts quarterback “the kind of third QB who can single-handedly win you a week.” Erickson acknowledged the market’s fear that Daniel Jones could open the season as the Indy starter, but stressed that any Richardson start brings immediate top-10 weekly upside thanks to elite rushing efficiency (0.84 fantasy points per carry and 4.7 designed runs per game in his abbreviated rookie year). Richardson’s ADP is sliding because drafters worry the Colts may shelf him late if their season goes south, yet Erickson noted that spike-weeks matter most in a best-ball portfolio and you now capture them at a steep discount. Bottom line: if Richardson plays, he is almost certainly in your best-ball lineup that week, making him a smash value when he drifts into the mid-teens.

Erickson called Geno Smith a screaming value as a late QB2 after the veteran landed with Chip Kelly’s Raiders. Smith quietly ranks top-10 in big-time-throw percentage and still adds rushing yards—traits Erickson prizes for spike weeks. Kelly plans to run the ball often but at one of the league’s fastest paces; Erickson noted that 70-plus snaps per game would keep Smith’s pass attempts in line with more pass-heavy teams. The supporting cast is sneaky loaded: rookie mismatch Brock Bowers joins Jakobi Meyers as chain-moving options, and the staff has no doubts about Smith’s job security. Add it up and Erickson expects Smith to outperform his current ADP, making him an ideal counterpart to a higher-priced quarterback in Best Ball builds.