Andrew Fillipponi urged fantasy managers and bettors to fade the Steelers defense despite the splashy additions of Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, Patrick Queen and first-round DT Derek Harmon. Pittsburgh now spends more money on defense than any team in the league—$20 million more than the second-place Giants—yet Fillipponi argued that in today’s NFL even elite defenses can’t carry an offense stuck in the mud. He pointed to playoff examples like Kansas City and Philadelphia, both of which paired good defenses with 30-plus-point offenses, and said Mike Tomlin’s unit will struggle to return fantasy value at its ADP or justify short game-total unders. In short: do not draft the Steelers DST as a top-five unit and think twice before leaning on defensive props.

Andrew Fillipponi called Jaylen Warren a clear upgrade over Najee Harris, stressing that Warren offers "more burst and upside for longer runs" instead of Najee’s three-yard-and-a-cloud-of-dust act. Pittsburgh just gave Warren a $5 million deal—starter money in Fillipponi’s eyes—and the rebuilt interior line (Jack Frazier at center plus a promising second-year right guard) should finally open lanes. He still warned that rookie Caleb Johnson could eventually force a committee, but expects Warren to start the year with the lion’s share of touches and far more explosive plays. DFS players and season-long drafters should treat him as an undervalued RB2 for Weeks 1-4, with contingency plans if Johnson comes on.

Andrew Fillipponi predicted Pat Freiermuth will set personal bests in volume and production because Arthur Smith flat-out loves funneling the offense through tight ends. Smith has dragged Jonnu Smith with him to three different teams and even coaxed record-setting numbers out of Jonnu in Miami last year. Fillipponi thinks the Steelers will have no choice but to copy that approach: DK Metcalf is going to be double-covered all season, and the thin wide-receiver room offers little incentive to attack outside. He noted Mike Tomlin’s historic fear of middle-of-the-field throws and Aaron Rodgers’ lukewarm tight-end history, but argued both tendencies must change now that Freiermuth and Jonnu represent Pittsburgh’s second- and third-best pass catchers. The end result, in his view, is a sneaky TE1 season for Freiermuth in best-ball and season-long formats at a discounted ADP.

Andrew Fillipponi would bet the under on DK Metcalf’s 925.5-yard prop at FanDuel. His reasoning: • With George Pickens traded, Pittsburgh lacks a viable WR2, meaning defenses can roll constant double coverage toward Metcalf. • The shaky left-tackle situation forces Rodgers to get the ball out quickly, limiting deep shots that traditionally fuel Metcalf’s yardage totals. • Calvin Austin profiles as a slot-only option, and Roman Wilson didn’t play last year, so nobody commands enough respect to keep safeties honest. • Arthur Smith’s history suggests a heavier tight-end and run-centric attack, further capping wide-receiver volume. Given those factors, Fillipponi expects Metcalf to fall short of 925.5 yards despite name-value buzz around the Rodgers-Metcalf pairing.

Andrew Fillipponi said the popular over 8.5 wins play on Pittsburgh is, in his words, “the biggest sucker bet on the board.” He projects the Steelers for only 7–8 wins because: • Aaron Rodgers has gone 5-20 in his last 25 starts despite posting gaudy yardage/TD totals, signaling empty production that doesn’t translate to victories. • Broderick Jones is struggling badly at left tackle—reports out of camp say he has looked “awful” after inexplicably dropping 30 pounds—leaving a 41-year-old Rodgers exposed behind what might be the league’s worst blind-side protection. • There is no proven safety net behind Jones, so a breakdown up front would short-circuit both the passing game and Najee-less running attack. • Mike Tomlin’s never-under-.500 narrative is artificially inflating public confidence, and the 2025 schedule is not the cupcake slate that carried Pittsburgh to double-digit wins the previous two seasons. Fillipponi believes those factors combine to make the under 8.5 wins the sharper side.