Andy Holloway warned that DJ Moore’s WR21 ADP may be closer to his ceiling than his floor now that Ben Johnson has imported a slot-heavy scheme and Chicago loaded up on pass-catching talent. Holloway noted Moore’s only top-12 season (WR6 in 2023) coincided with career-highs in touchdowns and yards, metrics that regressed immediately last year when he fell back to WR17 despite identical reception volume. The Bears have since added Rome Odunze on the outside plus second-round slot specialist Luther Burden and seam-stretching tight end Colston Loveland, and Holloway expects heavy 12-personnel that could relegate Moore to low-value screen and crosser routes—already 24 percent of his route tree in 2024, fourth-highest in the league. With Caleb Williams still an unknown commodity and target distribution likely volatile, Holloway sees Moore as a boom-bust WR3 rather than a safe WR2 and advised drafters to fade if the price stays in the top 24 receivers.

Andy Holloway pumped the brakes on drafting Dalton Kincade as a breakout tight end, pointing to yet another offseason injury report that surfaced the same day. Holloway reminded listeners that Kincade’s rookie line of 73-673-0 looked a lot like Kyle Pitts’ empty yardage rookie season and that year-two regression followed because the player never looked fully healthy. While a tight end does not need WR-level yardage to crack the top six, Holloway argued Kincade would still need six to eight touchdowns to matter and it is difficult to envision that spike if the back issue keeps flaring up. Given Buffalo’s firmly spread-the-wealth passing attack and Josh Allen’s apparent preference for James Cook near the goal line, Holloway advised passing on Kincade at his mid-round ADP and letting someone else absorb the medical risk.

Andy Holloway warned drafters not to chase any single Buffalo wide receiver this year because the roster lacks an alpha target earner. He noted that 2024 was the first time in eight seasons a top-five fantasy quarterback failed to produce a top-30 wideout or top-10 tight end, a pattern he blames on the Bills’ spread-the-wealth attack. The current depth chart — Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel — features a collection of solid NFL WR2/3 types rather than a Stefon Diggs-level star, while Dalton Kincaid and pass-catching back James Cook siphon additional looks. Holloway expects Josh Allen to keep distributing the ball, making it difficult for any receiver to deliver consistent starter-level fantasy output. His advice: fade the ambiguity and treat Buffalo pass catchers as boom-bust bench pieces rather than every-week starters.

Andy Holloway said Courtland Sutton is now "securely at the tippy-top" of Denver's depth chart after inking a four-year, $92-million extension with $41-million guaranteed. Holloway reminded listeners that Sutton quietly finished as the WR13 last season despite the Broncos' offensive turmoil and argued the new deal eliminates any lingering target-share concerns. With first-round rookie Bo Nix poised to pepper his big outside target and Sean Payton calling the plays, Holloway expects Sutton to again flirt with double-digit touchdowns. Because Sutton is currently available in the fifth round of redraft leagues, Holloway labeled him a "pretty decent value" and a safe weekly starter in season-long formats.

Andy Holloway advised treating Omarion Hampton as the more league-winning RB2 over Chuba Hubbard, even though Hubbard currently projects a slightly higher Week-1 workload. Hampton slots around RB19 in Holloway’s ranks (RB22 for Jason, RB17 for Mike) despite sharing the backfield with an ailing Najee Harris, and Holloway expects a training-camp reshuffle. Hampton carries first-round draft capital and profiles as the better talent in what should be a run-heavy Pittsburgh offense. Holloway compared the situation to Nick Chubb’s rookie season behind Carlos Hyde—once the veteran moved on, the rookie dominated. He even floated a scenario where Dallas trades for Najee mid-season, clearing the way for Hampton to handle 20 touches per game down the stretch. Managers comfortable weathering a potentially slow September should draft Hampton for his second-half, top-12 upside rather than settling for Hubbard’s lower-ceiling, compiler production in Carolina.

Andy Holloway warned managers not to get sucked back in by the annual "Kyle Pitts looks unstoppable in camp" headlines. Holloway pointed out that Pitts has produced a perfectly pedestrian 600-plus yards in each of the past two seasons and roughly 50 catches on 90 targets two years ago—numbers that are merely serviceable for a tight end, not special. Because the fantasy community keeps drafting Pitts as if his draft-day ceiling is inevitable, Holloway said the cost still requires a breakout that has now eluded managers for four straight years. With no change in offensive philosophy and only typical offseason puff pieces to spark optimism, Holloway stated he “won’t touch him” at current ADP and recommends treating Pitts as a streamer rather than a set-and-forget starter.

Andy Holloway said his preferred elite-level fallback stack is Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown. Holloway likes it because Brown is “undervalued” at the end of the first round while Hurts is being drafted at the very bottom of the top-four quarterbacks. That combination makes the pairing attainable for managers who miss out on the 1.01/1.02 picks needed for a Burrow-Chase start, yet it still offers true difference-maker upside from both spots in the lineup.

Andy Holloway warned that Brock Purdy falls from every-week starter to matchup-based streamer if Brandon Aiyuk’s contract standoff drags on and Deebo Samuel stays in Washington. Without his two primary wideouts, Purdy would be forced to lean on George Kittle and a running-back heavy passing attack, capping ceiling games that win fantasy weeks. Holloway reminded listeners that Purdy’s efficiency surge coincided with a fully healthy receiving corps; strip away those YAC monsters and the second-year QB turns into a low-end QB2 who should only be started against soft secondaries. He advised managers in one-QB leagues to wait on quarterback and pair Purdy with a sturdier option rather than assuming he will replicate last season’s consistency.

Andy Holloway doubled-down on James Conner as the safest fifth-round back, pointing to efficiency numbers most drafters miss. Conner ranked #2 in forced-missed-tackle rate last season—trailing only Kenneth Walker—while logging six 100-yard rushing games and his second straight 1,000-yard campaign. He added 47 catches for 400+ yards, giving him every-down utility even when the Cardinals trail. Despite that résumé he’s falling to 5.05 (RB20). Holloway said that, in a vacuum, he prefers Conner over Walker at equal cost because Conner’s week-to-week floor is “bankable” and both backs carry similar injury risk. He advised drafters to grab the veteran for a steady RB2 slot, ride the early production, then consider trading once the wear-and-tear narrative resurfaces.

Andy Holloway urged drafters to scoop up James Conner yet again, noting that Arizona faces the league’s 11th-easiest schedule and is favored in five of its first six games. Conner was the RB10 last year despite missing a game, and the Cardinals are projected to win 8.5 games—up from seven a season ago—setting up plenty of positive game scripts. Holloway loves using Conner as an early-season points engine, then trading him before wear and tear mounts. With rookie Quinshon Judkins still a "question mark" and Arizona’s depth chart otherwise thin, Conner profiles for another high-volume start that can anchor season-long and best-ball rosters while the market drafts him outside the top-20 backs.

Andy Holloway warned managers not to treat Kenneth Walker III as their lead back at his current RB15 price. Holloway cited several red flags: Seattle’s offensive line remains "trash" after allowing 50 sacks last season and still grades 30th at PFF, limiting Walker to "super-human, unbelievable runs for one yard." Sam Darnold replacing Geno Smith should drag the entire offense into the bottom half of the league, cutting into goal-line chances and making a double-digit touchdown season unlikely. Holloway is comfortable taking Walker only if he slides to the fifth round and pairs with a high-floor RB1; otherwise he sees a realistic outcome where Walker finishes outside the top-28 backs, turning him into a lineup liability in season-long and best-ball formats.

Andy Holloway warned managers not to chase Sam Darnold’s Minnesota flash when projecting him in Seattle. Darnold was propped up last year by Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly system, a top-10 offensive line and weapons like Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. He now inherits a unit PFF ranks 30th in pass blocking, has already lost DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and will play for defensive-minded Mike Macdonald, who just fired a coordinator after a 10-win season. Seattle allowed Geno Smith to be sacked 50 times, and Darnold’s worst career stretches have come under constant pressure—his infamous “seeing ghosts” season in New York featured the league’s 31st-ranked line. Holloway expects Seattle to skew run-heavy under Clint Kubiak and views Darnold as a low-end QB2 best left on waivers outside of superflex formats.

Andy Holloway said Puka Nacua can “easily” finish as the overall WR1 and is a smash at his current 1.09 ADP. Holloway reminded listeners that after returning from his early-season oblique injury Nacua was on a 17-game pace for 170 targets, 124 catches and 1,600 yards despite playing one game at only 30 % of snaps. Touchdowns (just six in two seasons) are the lone missing ingredient, but Holloway noted elite wideouts often have a random 12-13 TD spike year and expects positive variance now that defenses must also account for Davante Adams in the red zone. Because he is being drafted as the WR5—well behind Jefferson, Chase and Hill—Holloway views Nacua as a rare late-first value in both season-long and best-ball formats as long as Matthew Stafford’s back cooperates.

Andy Holloway bumped Joe Mixon’s risk rating in the Ultimate Draft Kit after the veteran opened camp on the Non-Football Injury list. Mixon spent the spring in a walking boot for what the team framed as "nothing," yet he still isn’t practicing months later. Holloway pointed out that ankle issues have historically sapped Mixon’s efficiency—3.7 yards per carry in games where he appeared on the injury report—and Houston’s signing of Nick Chubb suggests internal concern. With Mixon entering the age-28 cliff and the Texans suddenly deep at running back (Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Woody Marks), Holloway advised fantasy drafters to treat Mixon as a volatile RB3 rather than the safe RB2 his name value implies.

Andy Holloway urged fantasy managers to buy Chase Brown before his price spikes. Cincinnati’s new offensive coordinator compared Brown directly to Austin Ekeler, saying the sophomore "can do everything Ekeler did" and hinting at triple-digit target upside. Holloway highlighted Brown’s second-half usage last year—heavy two-minute work and 30 receptions over the final seven games—as evidence the Bengals already trust him in the passing game. Despite that profile, Brown is being drafted behind veterans like Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving. Holloway said he would happily flip a name-brand back (Gibbs, Henry or even Jacobs) plus a sweetener in keeper or dynasty formats to secure Brown and ride the coming tier jump.

Andy Holloway pumped the brakes on Malik Nabers at his current WR6 ADP, pointing to a brutal opening month (at Washington, at Dallas, vs Kansas City, vs the Chargers) and the league-worst overall schedule Sharp Football assigned to New York. Holloway likes Nabers’ talent but worries about week-to-week volatility on an offense he expects to finish dead last in scoring if Russell Wilson or rookie Jackson Dart starts. Last season Nabers needed 170 targets to post WR7 numbers and still logged seven weekly finishes outside the top-30. Holloway noted Nabers’ early price forces drafters to pass on similarly ranked Brian Thomas Jr., who operates in a better environment, and called the rookie’s 10–12 point half-PPR floor "frightening" for a first-round pick unless New York unexpectedly turns to a gunslinger like Jameis Winston. He advised treating Nabers as a boom-bust WR1 rather than a locked-in fantasy anchor in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Andy Holloway highlighted Jake Ferguson as a forgotten tight-end sleeper going outside the top 12. Ferguson led all tight ends in red-zone targets through Week 1 last season before an injury derailed him, yet when healthy he posted TE3, TE9 and TE10 finishes in the first month. Holloway believes a now-healthy Ferguson can soak up middle-of-the-field looks while defenses key on CeeDee Lamb and the newly acquired No. 2 wideout. At a 10th-round cost, Holloway called Ferguson “as meh as it gets—but exactly the kind of cheap touchdown machine who pays off,” recommending him as a best-ball punt or redraft streamer with legit top-10 upside.

Andy Holloway warned listeners not to touch Deebo Samuel in the eighth round. He said the once-elite YAC weapon looked "painful to watch" last year, posting four single-digit fantasy outings of 4.0 points or fewer after Week 9. Holloway noted Washington’s passing volume was already fifth-lowest in 2023 and is unlikely to jump enough to support a third receiving option behind Terry McLaurin and the running backs. With the 49ers already willing to move on from him, Holloway fears Deebo has lost the burst that made him special and would only consider him if he slides into the double-digit rounds where opportunity cost disappears.

Andy Holloway argued that Daniels is worth his aggressive QB3 price tag (ADP 3.05) because he is one of the rare signal-callers who can realistically break fantasy in the Lamar-2019 or Kyler-2020 way. From Week 9 on last season, Daniels’ passing pace sat at 4,000 yards and 36 TDs while he still averaged 51 rushing yards per game. Holloway compared the second-year star to Kyler Murray working under the same Eric Bieniemy offense, noting that Murray vaulted from QB5 as a rookie to QB2 in Year 2. Washington’s schedule is just 14th-hardest after being a cakewalk last year, but the team added Deebo Samuel and retained (he expects) Terry McLaurin, giving Daniels his best surrounding cast yet. Holloway emphasized that Daniels already produced two road playoff wins (268-2 vs Tampa, 299-2 vs Detroit) and finished as the overall QB5 despite the ‘easy schedule’ narrative, so a leap to QB1 overall is squarely in his range of outcomes.

Andy Holloway ranked the Eagles defense as the No. 1 DST in his Ultimate Draft Kit and urged drafters to consider them a round earlier than usual. Philadelphia allowed the fewest total yards in 2023, and the gap between them and No. 2 Houston was the widest in the last decade. Holloway highlighted two rookie-year standouts in the secondary who now enter Year 2, plus a front seven that anchored a 160-point positive differential. Even with a tougher strength-of-schedule (fourth hardest), he expects the unit to generate sacks and turnovers because the roster is "the best on both sides of the ball" and the offense still dictates tempo, forcing opponents into pass-heavy catch-up mode. That combination, Holloway said, makes the Eagles a rare defense worth targeting instead of pure streaming.

Andy Holloway advised passing on Saquon Barkley at the 1.03 in favor of Bijan Robinson, citing extreme workload and age-related injury risk. Barkley logged 378 regular-season carries and another 104 in the playoffs—a massive 482-touch campaign that few 28-year-old backs survive unscathed the following year. Holloway noted research showing backs who exceed 370 touches see both efficiency and games-played dip the next season. While admitting the volume is "what you dream of" if Barkley holds up, Holloway views the probability of breakdown too high for an early-first-round pick. He prefers Robinson’s fresher legs, lighter 272-touch rookie total, and ascendant usage profile in Arthur Smith’s run-centric Atlanta attack.

Andy Holloway did not love Elijah Arroyo’s college tape and labeled fourth-rounder AJ Barner the more complete tight end. Holloway expects Barner to out-snap Arroyo over the full season because of his superior in-line blocking and pro-ready skill set, citing Barner’s steady collegiate usage and Seattle’s need for a dependable every-down option after cutting Noah Fant. While acknowledging Arroyo’s big-play athleticism, Holloway predicted that weekly participation—especially on early downs—will favor Barner, making him the safer floor play in deeper season-long formats and a sneaky punt option in best-ball builds that reward snap volume.

Andy Holloway said he is perfectly comfortable drafting Alvin Kamara at his current RB16 ADP, especially in full-PPR formats where Kamara’s reception volume cushions the blow of New Orleans’ suspect offensive line. Holloway noted that Kamara has averaged 5.9 catches per game across his career and has finished outside the top-12 PPR running backs only once when he played at least 13 games. Even in last year’s dysfunctional offense Kamara piled up 75 grabs and ranked third among backs in targets. Holloway does not expect Kellen Moore’s arrival to change Kamara’s short-area role and values the veteran as a fourth-round cornerstone who can give managers a weekly 12- to 15-point floor while the rest of the Saints offense sorts itself out.

Andy Holloway said he is flat-out passing on Chris Godwin at his current mid-sixth-round ADP. Holloway expects the veteran to open 2025 slowly for three reasons: (1) new coordinator Liam Cohen is gone, and Holloway credited last year’s brief Godwin spike almost entirely to Cohen’s slot-heavy scheme; (2) Tampa just spent first-round capital on Emeka Egbuka, a player the front office has already called "a huge portion of the future," which Holloway thinks will siphon middle-of-the-field targets that Godwin used to monopolize; and (3) Godwin is coming off the same knee surgery that has produced wildly inconsistent Year-1 returns—Holloway cited recent examples of veterans looking sluggish for half a season before regaining explosiveness. With Mike Evans still entrenched as Baker Mayfield’s first read and the Bucs schedule opening against Atlanta, Houston, the Jets and Philadelphia (three top-12 pass defenses by EPA), Holloway believes drafters will get a discount later in the year if they really want to bet on a bounce-back. He is content to ignore Godwin in redraft and let someone else pay the sticker price.

Andy Holloway warned drafters not to chase last year’s ceiling on Baker Mayfield at his current QB7 ADP. Holloway pointed out that Mayfield’s 2024 touchdown rate ballooned to 7.2%, a sharp departure from the 4.6% mark he carried across his first 89 NFL games—a league-average figure that almost always regresses. Holloway is also baking in a tumble in rushing production after Mayfield posted 378 yards on essentially the same number of attempts that produced only 163 yards the prior season. Factor in a new coordinator and the historical drop of a full percentage point that even Hall-of-Famers see following an outlier TD-rate season, and Holloway projects a “mid-30s touchdown” campaign—good but not elite—which lands the veteran closer to QB10 in total fantasy points. He’s fine taking Mayfield as a safe floor starter, but sees better upside bets in the same draft range, citing Jordan Love three rounds later as an example.

Andy Holloway called Stefon Diggs a draft-day steal now that Albert Breer reports he’s "trending toward playing Week 1" just nine months removed from ACL surgery. Holloway reminded listeners that New England’s receiver room behind Diggs is league-worst—Ja’Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas, and Kayshon Boutte combined for only 81 targets last year—so any functional Drake May offense will funnel work to the veteran. The Patriots open with the Raiders and Dolphins, both bottom-10 secondaries by EPA per drop-back. Even if Diggs starts on a low snap count, Andy expects 8–10 targets immediately, making him an auto-pick in the final two rounds of redraft and a priority best-ball share before ADP corrects.

Andy Holloway urged managers not to write off Quentin Johnston, noting that even in a rocky rookie season he was on a 17-game pace for 109 targets and 9.1 touchdowns while commanding a 23.5% target-per-route rate—elite territory for a first-year wideout. With Mike Williams retired and only rookie Trey Harris added, Johnston has a clearer path to Z-receiver snaps and red-zone looks. Holloway doesn’t believe the Chargers will re-sign Keenan Allen before camp, so Johnston could open the season as Justin Herbert’s primary big-play option. Andy views him as a double-digit-round lottery ticket who could pay off as a weekly WR3 if his improved hands show up in preseason.

Andy Holloway pointed out that Xavier Worthy’s draft cost is about to climb sharply. With Rashee Rice facing a multi-game suspension, Kansas City is suddenly down last year’s target leader for at least a month, freeing up 20% of the passing pie. Worthy brings 4.21 speed and already showed rapport with Patrick Mahomes during rookie camp. Holloway expects the Chiefs to use Worthy as the primary field-stretcher while also scheming manufactured touches the way they did for Tyreek Hill early in his career. He projects a bump of 1.5 to 2.0 additional targets per game during Rice’s absence, moving Worthy from a late 9th-round dart throw into the 7th-round "upside WR3" tier in both best-ball and redraft leagues, with an outside shot at maintaining usable value even after Rice returns if the rookie flashes early.

Andy Holloway cooled expectations for Caleb Williams, likening the rookie’s outlook to Trevor Lawrence’s up-and-down start rather than an Andrew Luck-style rocket ship. After re-watching every 2024 throw, Holloway flagged 68 sacks, a league-leading 41 throwaways, and a 44th-of-47 catchable-target rate as red flags. Even with an upgraded line (PFF jump from 24th to 4th) and Ben Johnson’s arrival, Holloway believes Williams’ inconsistent accuracy from clean pockets makes it unlikely he lives up to his QB14 ADP in redraft or best ball. He sees a capable long-term starter but not an immediate fantasy star and would rather spend the pick elsewhere.

Andy Holloway recommended betting the Bears under their 8.5-win total. Holloway rattled off that Chicago has cleared its Vegas number just once in the last decade despite modest lines between 5.5 and 9 wins. The Bears dropped 10 straight after a 4-2 start last season, finished 28th in scoring and dead-last in yardage, and now face the league’s seventh-hardest schedule per Warren Sharp. Even with Ben Johnson arriving and a retooled offensive line, Holloway sees no historical or schedule-based precedent to support nine wins, calling the under the “only logical wager.”

Andy Holloway called Josh Jacobs a "great pick" at his current RB9 ADP on the 2/3 turn. Holloway reminded listeners that Jacobs finished 2024 as the RB5 while leading the league with 14 rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. A staggering 58 percent of his yards came after contact, evidence that the back, not the scheme, created the production. Holloway acknowledged that Matt LaFleur should dial the pass rate back up from last year’s 30th-ranked clip once Jordan Love is healthy, yet he argued Jacobs’ elite red-zone skill set insulates him from volume swings. Even a more balanced offense still projects multiple weekly trips inside the 20, and Holloway believes Jacobs remains the clear finisher. Bottom line: if you start your draft with an elite wideout, Jacobs is a sturdy RB1 anchor who can repeat double-digit TDs without needing the third-highest run rate in football.

Andy Holloway told listeners to keep Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson right where they are in their rankings despite J.J. McCarthy taking over. He cited Kevin O’Connell’s pass-heavy DNA—Minnesota has ranked 6th, 6th, and 3rd in pass rate over expectation the last three seasons even with Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens under center—as proof the play-calling will not go conservative. The franchise upgraded an offensive line that PFF had 18th in 2024 to a projected 7th by drafting first-round guard Donovan Jackson and signing former Colts center Ryan Kelly, so McCarthy should have better protection than his predecessors. Holloway emphasized that the Vikings never throttled back their aerial game plan when forced to start Mullens or Darnold, and he expects the same volume with a more talented rookie. Bottom line: Jefferson remains an undisputed first-rounder, Hockenson stays a top-four tight end, and even Addison (post-suspension) should hold WR2/Flex value—do not apply a rookie-QB discount.

Andy Holloway stumped for J.J. McCarthy as a late-round quarterback who could surprise right away. Holloway cited Kevin O’Connell’s track record of coaxing fantasy production from any signal-caller: Sam Darnold finished QB8 over his starts, Nick Mullens logged three top-12 weeks in four outings, Josh Dobbs produced two QB1 weeks in five games, and Kirk Cousins sat at QB4 pacing toward 5,000 yards pre-injury. Holloway contends McCarthy—a more talented prospect than Darnold—steps into a system that generated 34 pass attempts and 268 yards per game last season. Even with the league’s fifth-toughest schedule, the Vikings’ pass-heavy approach and elite supporting cast headlined by Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson give McCarthy a clear path to low-end QB1 spikes and a rock-solid QB2 floor in season-long formats.

Andy Holloway urged drafters to pump the brakes on taking Jahmyr Gibbs inside the top five overall. Holloway expects a "slightly bigger lean" toward Gibbs in year two but does not see Detroit abandoning David Montgomery at the goal line. He reminded listeners that Gibbs did not crack the positional top-10 until Week 7 and managed that feat only four times while Montgomery was healthy. When Monty missed late in the season, Gibbs exploded for 29.3 half-PPR points a game, underscoring how dependent his ceiling remains on an injury or major philosophical shift near the stripe. With Ben Johnson gone, a downgraded offensive line, and likely touchdown regression after last year’s league-leading 33.7 points per game, Holloway believes Gibbs needs far more volume than he is projected to receive to justify RB3 pricing in season-long or best-ball drafts.

Andy Holloway said dynasty and season-long managers need to temper expectations for Garrett Wilson because the Jets still have no long-term answer at quarterback. Holloway laid out two likely 2025 scenarios: 1) Justin Fields starts one season and delivers only a “DJ Moore-light” year, or 2) Fields flames out and the franchise pivots to a rookie passer—what Holloway dubbed scary “Rookie Town.” Without a prolific thrower, he does not believe Wilson can realistically join the Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase tier even though the receiver’s raw talent is close. Holloway likes the security of Wilson’s extension but recommended valuing him as a solid WR1/2 instead of paying an overall-WR1 price in season-long and best-ball drafts.

Andy Holloway reminded listeners that Jordan Addison faces a baseline three-game suspension under the NFL’s DUI policy. Addison has a pre-trial hearing looming and many expect a plea deal, but any conviction would still cost him at least three contests, per Adam Schefter’s reporting. Holloway noted the fantasy fallout: you cannot raise Justin Jefferson’s value any further, yet T.J. Hockenson should see an immediate spike in targets if Addison sits. Redraft drafters should bake a three-plus-game absence into Addison’s price and consider Hockenson a strong bet to start hot.

Andy Holloway called Cortland Sutton the "Ford Taurus" of fantasy wideouts—unsexy but guaranteed to get you where you need to go. Holloway noted Sutton’s league-leading 12 end-zone targets and 10 receiving touchdowns last season and argued that Bo Nix cannot hit the 4,000-yard, 30-TD ceiling the hosts expect without relying on Sutton’s size, experience, and place atop the pecking order. With Marvin Mims still a side-hustle gadget and rookies Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant learning the playbook, Sutton’s target share projects to stay north of 22%. Holloway likes him as a rock-solid WR3/FLEX in season-long drafts who offers week-to-week stability while other drafters chase flashier but less consistent options.

Andy Holloway labeled Bo Nix his favorite late-round quarterback target, citing Sean Payton’s track record of juicing fantasy production with running-back receptions and quick-hitting concepts. Denver imported Evan Engram as a high-volume safety blanket and replaced plodding Javonte Williams with pass-game upgrade J.K. Dobbins plus rookie satellite back RJ Harvey. Holloway expects those additions to mimic the Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram years where Drew Brees banked cheap yardage and scores through backs, a boon for Nix’s fantasy floor. With the Broncos already finishing 10th in points per game as a rookie, Nix now benefits from a defense that ranked third in scoring allowed, giving him favorable field position and limiting negative scripts. Holloway believes Nix can crack the top-12 QBs while costing almost nothing in 1-QB formats and gives superflex drafters an every-week starter at a substantial discount.

Andy Holloway called Ladd McConkey an elite player but questioned whether drafters get enough bang for a 2.11 pick in a Chargers offense expected to funnel through the run. Holloway noted the team added outside threat Trey Harris, welcomed back Mike Williams, and still hopes 2024 first-rounder Quentin Johnston develops, all while Greg Roman historically dials the pass rate down. McConkey finished last season with seven TDs on 120 targets; Holloway believes both numbers are repeatable but not guaranteed to grow, meaning managers need near-perfect health and consistent second-half passing volume for McConkey to justify a top-24 overall slot. He still ranks McConkey high but prefers him in the early third where the margin for error is wider.

Andy Holloway said he is "totally fine" scooping Travis Kelce in the late-sixth or early-seventh round (ADP 6.11). Even during last year’s so-called down season Kelce logged 133 targets and 97 receptions—both elite for the position—and still led all tight ends in red-zone looks despite converting only three of them into scores. Holloway expects touchdown regression to swing back Kelce’s way and pointed out that a 24% target share when Rashee Rice was sidelined shows the 35-year-old can still command volume whenever the wideout room is banged up. For a mid-round price, Holloway believes Kelce retains weekly top-three upside and remains a league-winning swing if the Chiefs red-zone offense bounces back.

Andy Holloway pumped the brakes on Isiah Pacheco at his current 6.06 draft slot (RB22). Holloway acknowledged the pathway for Pacheco to reclaim last year’s brief work-horse role if the 30-year-old Kareem Hunt proves even slower than he looked in 2024, but he argued managers are already paying for that best-case outcome. At the exact same ADP he prefers Aaron Jones and said he would still take DeAndre Swift a full round later. Holloway noted Kansas City has never hesitated to sprinkle in less athletic options—Hunt, Samaje Perine, even Clyde Edwards-Helaire—to keep workloads balanced, meaning Pacheco’s floor is much lower than drafters realize. Unless his price drops, Holloway is letting someone else absorb the risk.

Andy Holloway said Isiah Pacheco still has a clear path to re-emerge as the Chiefs’ lead back at his RB22 draft cost. Holloway reminded listeners that Pacheco was playing hurt down the stretch in 2024, which allowed 29-year-old Kareem Hunt to siphon goal-line and passing-down snaps. With a full offseason to get healthy and Hunt now another year older and noticeably slower, Holloway expects Kansas City to lean on Pacheco’s superior burst. He noted that Pacheco handled the early-season workhorse role last year and that Kansas City’s defense-driven game scripts should funnel 15-plus carries a week to whoever tops the depth chart. If Pacheco proves he is back to pre-injury form, Holloway believes he can consolidate touches and deliver high-end RB2, low-end RB1 value in season-long and best-ball formats.

Andy Holloway said the pieces are lining up for Brandon Aiyuk to miss the first month. Ayuk is recovering from November ACL-MCL-meniscus surgery and Bay Area reporters now believe he will start 2025 on the PUP list, which would knock him out through Week 4. At the same time DeMarcus Robinson pleaded no-contest to a DUI and will almost certainly draw a league suspension of similar length. Holloway concluded that "in reality, Robinson and Ayuk will probably both miss the first four games," leaving rookie Ricky Pearsall and the rest of San Francisco’s depth chart to soak up snaps and targets. Fantasy drafters looking for an early-season dart throw or waiver pickup should circle Pearsall and any preferred 49ers wideout because the opening month volume will be there.

Andy Holloway said he expects Stefon Diggs to suit up in Week 1 despite the late-season ACL tear, dismissing talk of a stint on the PUP list. Holloway called Diggs "really important for Drake May’s progression" and listed him, rookie Kyle Williams and DeMario Douglas as the only roster locks in a chaotic receiver room. With so much uncertainty behind those three and New England projected to throw more under Mike Vrabel, Holloway sees Diggs reclaiming a dominant target share immediately. He is treating the veteran as a volume-driven WR2 in redraft, confident that rehab videos plus the Patriots’ need for a true alpha point to a full workload when the season opens.

Andy Holloway said Garrett Wilson legitimately has a path to 200 targets because the Jets have nothing else even resembling a primary option after letting Josh Reynolds replace Davante Adams and swinging big on rookie tight end Mason Taylor. Wilson already owns the second-most targets through a receiver’s first three seasons in NFL history, and new head coach Aaron Glenn publicly stated the offense will "get him the ball as much as possible." Holloway concedes Justin Fields will run plenty, but he expects a condensed passing tree in a scheme that ranked 4th in passing yards allowed last year and should keep games close, forcing 8-to-12 intermediate attempts every week. With 30 % target-share upside and no competition beyond Reynolds and a rookie tight end, Holloway is drafting Wilson everywhere as a volume-driven WR1.

Andy Holloway said Dalton Kincaid is the classic post-hype sleeper you can get for free at the end of drafts. Kincaid was awful as a rookie — 58 % catch rate and only 10.0 yards per reception when most tight ends are catching 70-plus percent on short throws — but Holloway blamed a lingering knee issue that cost him three games and sapped his explosiveness. With Stefon Diggs gone, the Bills’ leading returning pass catcher is Khalil Shakir (29 receptions), so Holloway believes Kincaid has a real shot to pace the team in targets. Buffalo tried all year to scheme him deep, giving him a Pitts-like route tree; if even a handful of those connect in year two, the ceiling spikes. Because he now goes in the double-digit rounds instead of the seventh, Holloway is loading up on Kincaid as his preferred late tight-end dart in season-long leagues.

Andy Holloway refused to downgrade Quinshon Judkins after a local beat report labeled Jerome Ford ‘the starter for now.’ Holloway still ranks the rookie as Cleveland’s Week-1 lead back because the Browns invested a second-round pick in Judkins, forced Ford to accept a pay cut to stay on the roster, and have historically let young backs prove themselves quickly in camp. Holloway will revisit the projection only if Ford holds first-team reps deep into preseason, but for now he is drafting Judkins as the back who will own early-down and goal-line work once the games count.

Andy Holloway called Jordan Mason the prototype of what he wants with his last few bench spots. Mason is already slated for rotational carries in San Francisco, giving him weekly plug-in potential, and if Christian McCaffrey were to miss time Holloway believes Mason could instantly jump to a top-15 weekly fantasy running back. That blend of standalone usage plus massive contingency value makes Mason a better bet than a pure handcuff who offers nothing until an injury occurs.

Andy Holloway said that if you roster Christian McCaffrey you should make Isaac Guerendo a priority late-round pick. Holloway pointed out that McCaffrey is already dealing with Achilles tendinitis in both legs and has a long track record of in-season nicks. Kyle Shanahan historically rides one running back when his starter is sidelined, so the McCaffrey injury scenario would almost certainly funnel every meaningful touch to Guerendo. Given McCaffrey’s first-round ADP, Andy wants the insurance locked up rather than chasing someone else’s backup on draft day.

Andy Holloway said Calvin Ridley is going far too late at his current WR38 ADP. Ridley quietly finished as the overall WR30 last season and still cleared 1,000 receiving yards despite scatter-shot quarterback play that forced Brian Callahan to bench Will Levis for Mason Rudolph down the stretch. Holloway argued that drafters are over-penalizing Ridley for the Titans’ 3-14 collapse while ignoring the realistic scenario in which rookie Cam Ward is merely average. Holloway pointed to the recent string of rookie quarterbacks who immediately boosted a primary target—Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Terry McLaurin—as proof that league-ready passers can support fantasy-relevant wideouts right away. Because Ridley already showed he can earn volume in a dysfunctional offense, Holloway views him as a no-risk, WR3 price tag who could pop for WR2 numbers if Ward is even league-average. "People don’t want any Titans, and I’m happy to scoop Ridley when he falls," Holloway concluded.