Anthony Dabbundo said Geno Smith’s ugly 2023 red-zone numbers are primed for a sharp rebound now that he is out of Shane Waldron’s offense and operating indoors with the Raiders. Smith ranked bottom-five in touchdown rate inside the 20 last season, a slump Dabbundo blamed partly on play-calling; Waldron was fired after just one year and was "not particularly well liked" in Seattle. Smith now inherits Luke Getsy’s West Coast concepts and an upgraded skill group headlined by record-setting tight end Brock Bowers and chain-mover Jakobi Meyers. Dabbundo highlighted Smith’s lifetime splits—103.4 passer rating in domes versus 87.6 outdoors—and pointed out that 12 of Las Vegas’s 17 games will be under a roof. Between scheme change, friendlier environments, and better red-zone weapons, he expects Smith’s TD total to climb back into the mid-20s and labeled him a late-round fantasy quarterback with weekly DFS ceiling.

Anthony Dabbundo called Brock Bowers a generational offensive weapon and predicted he will top 1,000 receiving yards again in Year 2. Dabbundo reminded listeners Bowers just shattered the rookie tight-end records with 112 catches and 1,194 yards, obliterating the previous receptions mark of 86. The tout trusts Geno Smith to keep funneling volume to the tight end, noting Bowers produced at every stop—from a run-heavy Georgia program to a Raiders offense still searching for a true WR1. Las Vegas plays nine games inside Allegiant’s dome and travels to other indoor venues in Indianapolis, Los Angeles, and New Orleans, so weather rarely caps passing volume. Dabbundo framed Bowers as a locked-in top-three fantasy tight end and a viable Offensive Player of the Year long-shot, urging season-long drafters to treat him like a mid-second-round wide receiver.

Anthony Dabbundo targeted the Raiders at roughly +300 to reach the postseason, arguing their offensive ceiling outstrips other long-shot contenders. He noted Geno Smith’s track record of surviving shaky pass protection, calling the veteran an immediate upgrade on last year’s quarterback carousel. First-round tight end Brock Bowers and second-round slot threat Jermaine Genti add explosive RAC weapons to pair with Jakobi Meyers, giving Las Vegas four viable targets inside Allegiant’s climate-controlled dome. While the line and secondary remain question marks, Dabbundo pointed out Patrick Graham’s units have consistently over-performed expectations and believes a Khalil Mack–Maxx Crosby edge duo can paper over back-end flaws. With an offense capable of winning shootouts and a schedule that includes New England in Week 1 plus the entire NFC South, Dabbundo thinks a 10-win path exists and sees 3-to-1 as mis-priced in a muddled AFC wild-card field.

Anthony Dabbundo argued Jacksonville is the smarter wager to win the AFC South at current prices. He conceded Houston owns small advantages at quarterback-receiver (Stroud/Collins) and along the offensive line, plus a much sturdier defense, yet maintained those edges are being overstated in the market. Dabbundo’s core thesis is schedule-driven: Houston’s first-place slate drops Baltimore, Buffalo, and Kansas City onto the card, while Jacksonville’s third-place draw avoids that gauntlet entirely. The Texans also went winless in their ‘step-up’ games last year, a red flag when paired with the tougher path. He believes the true gap between the clubs is only a couple wins rather than the sizeable spread implied by division futures and recommends grabbing the Jaguars at plus money before numbers tighten in camp.

Anthony Dabbundo admitted he was tempted to ‘zag’ by plugging Pittsburgh into his official playoff bracket and, even though format rules kept them out, he still likes the bet. At +150 to make the postseason, the Steelers are, in his words, “the same Tomlin auto-pilot we fade every summer and regret by Christmas.” Dabbundo pointed to Mike Tomlin’s streak of never finishing below .500 and argued even a “washed Rodgers”—i.e., modest quarterback competence—would be an upgrade over what the franchise has fielded for most of the decade. He expects a healthier T.J. Watt to re-anchor the defense after last year’s injury-marred second half and believes the defensive front can still wreak havoc long enough for the offense to be merely average. With the AFC wild-card race lacking obvious depth, Dabbundo sees +150 as a playable number on a perennial nine-win floor.

Anthony Dabbundo kept the Chargers in his projected AFC playoff field almost entirely on the back of Jim Harbaugh’s track record of instant stability. Harbaugh has posted 11-plus wins in four of his five prior NFL seasons, with the lone outlier still landing at .500. Dabbundo thinks that sort of baked-in floor is exactly what a roster led by Justin Herbert needs after years of late-game chaos. While acknowledging personnel holes—receiver depth and edge rotation—he trusts Harbaugh’s run-game emphasis and game-management chops to smooth volatility, pushing Los Angeles toward a 10- or 11-win season that cashes playoff futures. He sees Herbert as a clear top-six quarterback and believes even average injury luck on defense will leave the Chargers advantaged over middling AFC wild-card contenders such as Pittsburgh or the Colts.

Anthony Dabbundo pushed back hard on Houston hype, making them one of his six teams to drop out of the postseason. He cited the Texans’ razor-thin +0 point differential in 2023 and argued they merely survived the NFL’s softest division rather than proved anything elite. Dabbundo is particularly worried about the offensive line after the loss of Laremy Tunsil, calling it a bottom-10, perhaps bottom-five unit on paper. If that group crumbles, he fears Year-2 C.J. Stroud reverts to the sack-magnet version we saw in spurts last fall. The skill corps also looks fragile: Nico Collins has a checkered health record, Tank Dell’s timetable remains murky, and relying on aging backs like Joe Mixon or Nick Chubb dampens explosive-play potential. Even defensively he warns that variance can swing quickly year-to-year, so a top-five projection is far from guaranteed. Bottom line: Dabbundo prefers betting Houston to miss the playoffs or taking under on their win total, expecting a return to roughly .500 football if any of the red flags pop up.

Dabbundo advised holding off on preseason Chiefs division bets and instead looking to pounce around Week 4. He expects media buzz around the Chargers and Broncos to inflate their early-season market perception, while Kansas City’s first-place schedule could create a sluggish start similar to past seasons. Once the odds drift, he plans to re-enter on the Chiefs to win the AFC West, noting the rest of the division still sits a full tier below Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid despite offseason hype.

Anthony Dabbundo said the Bills are his single safest futures wager to reach the postseason. His case leaned heavily on Buffalo’s cushy path: Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Baltimore all have to fly to Orchard Park, while the rest of the home slate is filled with non-contenders. He highlighted that Josh Allen has no notable injury history, the defense was "rebuilt" after last year’s dip and will be better under Sean McDermott, and Joe Brady was retained to keep last season’s more balanced, lower-turnover offensive approach intact. Dabbundo also downplayed divisional threats—Miami trending the wrong way, the Jets breaking in Justin Fields, and New England still rebuilding—arguing nothing in the AFC East meaningfully blocks Buffalo’s return to the playoffs.