For the Thursday night matchup, Austin Mock’s play-by-play driven projections put the Los Angeles Chargers three points clear of the Minnesota Vikings. After accounting for opponent quality and removing garbage-time plays, the model’s expected-points differentials translate to Los Angeles -3, giving bettors a target number for the primetime game.

Mock noted that once his play-by-play model corrects for opponent strength and strips out garbage-time noise, Denver grades out three points better than Dallas in Week 8. That output produces a full 3-point spread in favor of the Broncos on their home field, making Denver the side his projections endorse for bettors.

Austin Mock said his NFL Projection Model, which feeds season-long play-by-play data through opponent and garbage-time adjustments before translating the results into expected points for each unit, makes the Green Bay Packers 3-point favorites on the road in Pittsburgh for Week 8. His numbers therefore point bettors toward backing Green Bay at a field-goal spread.

Mock took Tennessee +7 (-105) in Houston, stressing that neither roster deserves a full-touchdown spread. He notes Houston's defense can dominate at times, but doubts bettors will line up to lay points with an offense that remains inconsistent. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has flashed downfield aggression for Tennessee, and the switch away from Brian Callahan's play-calling could unlock a few extra points. His power numbers make the Texans only a field-goal favorite, so he advised grabbing +7 at anything better than ‑110.

Austin Mock backed the Steelers at +120 for their neutral-site game in Ireland versus the Vikings. His model has already downgraded Pittsburgh for three miserable defensive outings yet still spits out a true pick'em, while the market is pricing Minnesota as the favorite. Mock trusts a buy-low spot against a Carson Wentz offense, arguing Pittsburgh is unlikely to defend any worse than it has and that +115 is the worst number he would lay.

Austin Mock is on the Rams +3.5 (-115), noting several red flags for Philadelphia’s offense. Jalen Hurts ranked third in EPA per dropback against Cover-1 last season, yet through two games this year he has not faced that coverage even once, exposing his relative discomfort working through full-field reads. Saquon Barkley is averaging under 4.0 yards per carry, adding to Mock’s belief the unit may be “solved.” Because he doubts the Eagles can win by margin, Mock says the Rams at any +3 or better are worth a ticket, with +3.5 his preferred number.

Mock grabbed over 43.5 at -110 for Carolina-Arizona despite the Panthers’ ugly Week 1 showing. He is banking on seeing "second-half-of-2024 Bryce Young" this weekend and notes that Carolina’s defense is bad enough to let Arizona dictate a quicker tempo. With the Cardinals setting the pace and any semblance of competence from Young, his model lands the game in the mid-40s. He would not chase a number higher than 43.5 at the same vig.