Austin Swaim likes the value (+480) offered on Hunter Goodman to homer today against struggling Padres lefty Kyle Hart. Though concerns might exist given the Rockies being away from Coors Field, Petco Park actually ranks as the fourth-best stadium for righty power hitters. Hart, who posted a 2.69 ERA in the KBO last year, has struggled significantly with a 6.40 SIERA, allowing troubling levels of hard-hit (50.0%) and flyballs (52.9%), translating to an alarming 3.18 HR/9. Goodman is currently crushing left-handed pitching evidenced by his 1.042 OPS, .333 ISO, and strong contact metrics (50% hard-hit rate, 33.3% flyball rate). FanDuel's projection model indicates a robust 0.28 median home run expectation, significantly better than indicated by the posted odds.

Austin Swaim recommends betting on Matt Wallner to hit a home run (+350) facing Tigers' rookie Jackson Jobe. Jobe has started poorly with a 5.75 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), driven mainly by troubling contact splits, including elevated flyball (40%) and hard-hit (38.5%) rates, along with a 2.00 HR/9 mark allowed. Matt Wallner is projected as the leadoff hitter and, despite a slow start (.675 OPS against opposite-handed pitchers), maintains solid flyball (51.9%) and hard-hit rates (37%), with a strong track record of hitting 12 homers in just 217 plate appearances in this platoon split last year. FanDuel MLB home run projections give Wallner a median of 0.30 home runs, indicating odds closer to +286, presenting clear value at posted odds.

Austin Swaim highlights Mike Yastrzemski (+480 to hit a home run) due to favorable hitting conditions against Yankees pitcher Will Warren, who struggled last season giving up 1.99 HR/9 and continues to allow substantial hard-hit rate (50%) this year. Yankee Stadium, MLB's second-best stadium for home runs, is especially beneficial for lefties such as Yastrzemski, who is crushing right-handers (.310 ISO, 1.252 OPS, and 38.1% hard-hit rate). Though his flyball rate is slightly below ideal (33.3%), the park conditions notably enhance his home run upside. FanDuel's home run projection model ranks Yastrzemski fourth most-likely (0.27 median home run) to homer today, making the posted odds highly appealing.

Austin Swaim spotlights Hunter Goodman as a favorable home run prop bet despite the Rockies' typical road struggles. Playing at Petco Park, which ranks fourth-best for right-handed power, Goodman faces off against lefty Kyle Hart who has endured horrendous early-season metrics: a brutal 6.40 SIERA, massive 50.0% hard-hit allowed rate, sky-high 52.9% flyball rate, and an alarming 3.18 HR/9 allowed thus far. Goodman's numbers have been outstanding in the platoon matchup, sporting a robust 1.042 OPS, a hefty .333 ISO, along with strong underlying data featuring a 50.0% hard-hit rate and 33.3% flyball rate against southpaws. FanDuel's projections assign Goodman a strong 0.28 median projection for a Saturday dinger, meaning the current odds of +480 offer notable value.

Austin Swaim noted Matt Wallner as a strong home run candidate against Detroit Tigers righty Jackson Jobe, whose struggles have resulted in a concerning 5.75 SIERA and high contact metrics: a 40.0% flyball rate, a 38.5% hard-hit rate, and 2.00 HR/9 allowed. Despite Wallner's current .675 OPS against right-handers, Swaim highlighted Wallner's strong 37.0% hard-hit rate, and 51.9% flyball rate, which align well to exploit Jobe's struggles. Additionally, Wallner previously dominated this handedness split with 12 home runs in only 217 plate appearances last season. Swaim cited FanDuel's projections of 0.30 median expected home runs, implying odds closer to +286 for a homer, offering value at the current line of +350.

Austin Swaim identified Mike Yastrzemski as a valuable home run prop target, pointing out the advantageous condition of playing in Yankee Stadium, ranked MLB's second-best park for home runs, particularly favorable to left-handed hitters. Yastrzemski has thrived against right-handed pitching this year with a stellar 1.252 OPS and .310 ISO, alongside a healthy 38.1% hard-hit rate. Despite some concerns over a lower 33.3% flyball rate, park conditions can encourage more loft. Yankees pitcher Will Warren continues experiencing homer issues with a mediocre 4.92 xERA and a troubling 50% hard-hit allowed rate. FanDuel projection models give Yastrzemski a 0.27 median expected home run rate, placing him among Saturday's most likely home run bets, making the current odds of +480 particularly enticing.