Baz Plummer played Chris Kirk at +500 for a top-10, risking two units. Kirk, a six-time PGA Tour winner, has strung together elite finishes: 5th at last week’s Wyndham, T14 at the 3M Open, a playoff loss at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T12 at June’s U.S. Open. With the playoff event featuring a reduced field, Baz believes Kirk’s current form makes him undervalued to snag another leaderboard finish.

In addition to his outright ticket, Baz Plummer backed Sepp Straka for a top-10 finish at +275 with two units. The same case applies—two 2025 victories, top-10 strokes-gained rankings at the course, and a runner-up finish at Southwind three seasons ago—but the extra stake reflects Baz's confidence Straka at least contends even if he does not win.

Baz Plummer staked one unit on Sepp Straka to win at +4500, noting that the Austrian is one of only six players with multiple PGA Tour victories this season. Straka’s most recent win came at May’s Truist Championship, and he has followed it with a 3rd at the Memorial and a 7th at the Genesis Scottish Open. He was runner-up at Southwind in 2022 and ranks 8th in strokes gained total over his last 50 rounds. Baz emphasized Straka’s accuracy off the tee and dialed-in wedge game as perfect fits for TPC Southwind.

Baz Plummer allocated two units on Viktor Hovland at +3000 to win. Hovland captured the Valspar Championship earlier this summer and finished third at the U.S. Open in June, signaling peak form heading into the playoffs. The former FedEx Cup winner is top-10 in strokes gained at TPC Southwind and, like Thomas, excels in the 100-150-yard approach windows that dominate this layout. He finished runner-up in this event last season, giving Baz confidence the Norwegian's ceiling is worth chasing despite occasional volatility.

Baz Plummer put two betting units on Justin Thomas to win at +2500, calling the number far too long for the profile. He pointed to Thomas' 2025 campaign that already includes one victory and three runner-up finishes in just 17 starts, with most of that production coming in the last three months—perfect timing for the playoffs. Thomas is a past champion at TPC Southwind and sits 4th in the entire field in strokes gained at this venue. Stat-wise he ranks top-10 on Tour for approach shots from both 100-125 and 125-150 yards, the two most common second-shot distances at Southwind, and he is 7th in SG: Putting this season. Baz concluded that Thomas “at his best can certainly outperform this generous price,” making him a core outright bet.