Ben Coley recommended an each-way flutter on Justin Rose at 22/1 for the Hero World Challenge, arguing the Englishman’s intimate knowledge of Albany—he once lived in the Bahamas—gives him an edge in a field missing depth behind Scheffler. Rose’s event résumé reads 13-WD-5-3-5-9-8, highlighted by a course-record 62 and closing rounds of 65, 65, 66 and 66 in his last four visits. Coley pointed to Rose’s resurgent form: sixth at the Scottish Open, 16th at The Open, a surprise victory at the FedEx St Jude Championship, respectable efforts despite cold putting, and 14th at the DP World Tour Championship after a two-month break. Across that span Rose has been gaining with irons and recently improved off the tee in Dubai, suggesting the complete game required to contend here. Coley also noted Rose kept the competitive reps up by hosting a competitive charity shootout at Pebble Beach last week, meaning rust shouldn’t be an issue. With Albany’s generous fairways reducing the need for power and his experience reading bermuda greens, Coley believes Rose has a realistic ceiling to win, rating him a better bet than similarly priced Robert MacIntyre and a strong option in ‘without Scheffler’ markets at 14/1.

Ben Coley advised staking 3 points each-way on Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1 to win the Hero World Challenge, highlighting several factors. Coley argued Matsuyama’s peak iron play is second only to Scottie Scheffler’s and Albany rewards that skill more than driving distance. Matsuyama won this event in 2016 after leading by seven through 54 holes and was fifth in 2017, demonstrating course comfort. He also captured The Sentry at Kapalua in January, another exposed, bermuda-grassed coastal layout. Recent results—13th at Wentworth after holding the halfway lead, 20th at the Baycurrent Classic, 7th in Korea and 5th in Japan—show he has cracked the top 30 in every start since June. Strokes-gained data from two of those outings confirm his approach play is back in top gear, and Albany’s wide fairways mitigate the driver issues that plagued him earlier this season. Coley noted Matsuyama’s late-career putting improvement on bermuda greens (wins in Hawaii and Tennessee) and the fact he has been competitively sharp while several rivals are coming off long layoffs. With Scheffler just 6/4, Coley sees Matsuyama as the clear value alternative and recommended him both outright and in ‘without Scheffler’ markets at 12/1.

Ben Coley invested 1.5 points each-way on Davis Thompson at 50/1 (1/5 odds, 8 places), pointing to three consecutive positive strokes-gained putting weeks that addressed the one weakness in an otherwise elite tee-to-green profile (20th on Tour). Thompson debuted at Silverado with a T9 two years ago and followed with a T30 last season while gaining with driver and irons both times. Fresh off a T11 at the Wyndham, he narrowly missed the FedExCup Playoffs by one spot, giving him clear motivation to climb into the 51-60 range that unlocks 2026 Signature Events and to crack the world top-50 for major access. Coley believes the extended rest compared with Ryder Cup participants is a net positive and expects Thompson’s sustained ball-striking plus recent putting uptick to put him squarely in the mix.

Ben Coley staked 3 points each-way on Collin Morikawa at 25/1 (1/5 odds, 8 places) to lift the Procore Championship. Coley argued that Silverado is effectively a home game for the California native and recalled Morikawa’s history here: PGA Tour debut on a sponsor invite, a T10 the following season, and overall only one missed cut in 17 California starts that include second, third, fourth and a major victory. Morikawa is gaining 1.22 strokes per round with his irons over the past month—virtually identical to Scottie Scheffler’s season-long 1.23—and has paired that with improved driving. Coley expects poa annua greens to spark the putter, notes the added motivation of justifying a contested Ryder Cup captain’s pick, and sees Scheffler’s course debut plus limited West-Coast form from other favorites as a window for Morikawa to win or place.

Coley placed 2 points each-way on Akshay Bhatia at 30/1 (1/5 odds, 8 places), highlighting a statistical run of gaining strokes on approach in eight straight starts since the U.S. Open and solid off-the-tee numbers. Bhatia finished ninth at Silverado in 2020 without a Tour card and owns two PGA Tour victories, one of which came at TPC San Antonio—a course strongly correlated with Silverado through multiple champion crossovers such as Brendan Steele and Patton Kizzire. The tout also cites Bhatia’s sharpened short game, recent signs of putting life after a mid-season slump, and extra incentive to show Ryder Cup selectors what they missed. Given the field strength boost from 10 U.S. Ryder Cuppers, Coley still trusts Bhatia’s current ball-striking to outclass most non-elite names and contend for a third title.

Ben Coley allocated 1 point each-way to Justin Rose at 80/1, calling the Englishman “massively overpriced” given his track record in elite company. Rose sits 25th in the FedEx Cup and has posted four top-10s this year—all in strong fields—plus a T16 at last month’s Open. Southwind form is quietly rock-solid: 11th when it was a WGC, then 20th and 22nd in the last two FedEx renewals, highlighted by a third-round 61 and a combined −19 across the overlapping final two rounds of 2023 and first two rounds of 2024. Coley concedes Rose’s bad weeks are ugly but views that volatility as perfect for an 80/1 each-way ticket, especially with Ryder Cup motivation and a statistical profile (still elite iron play when he’s ‘on’) that fits a course demanding precision over raw power.

Coley backed Collin Morikawa for 2 points each-way at 33/1, arguing the price drift is an overreaction to two links-course missed cuts. Prior to Scotland and Portrush, Morikawa was eighth on his last US start while ranking 3rd in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and he led that same metric at the US Open. Southwind has always suited his precision: five career visits have produced no finish worse than 26th and a best of 5th in 2022, when he arrived off two Scottish missed cuts—an almost identical lead-in. Coley notes Morikawa has historically putted well here, a welcome antidote to his periodic “putting funks,” and may feel extra motivation with Ryder Cup places on the line. Having been 14-20/1 all season in stronger fields, 33/1 in a 69-man playoff event without Rory McIlroy is, in Coley’s view, “a massive price.”

Ben Coley staked 2 points each-way on Viktor Hovland at 33/1, pointing to a near-perfect course fit and encouraging recent form. Hovland calls TPC Southwind “a genius golf course” and his results back that up: 59th on debut in 2020 when his short game was a liability, then 36th, 20th, 13th and runner-up last year, shooting 15-under for the final 54 holes. Coley highlighted that last year’s slow start came while Hovland’s game was struggling—he’d missed both summer-major cuts—whereas this time he rolls in off 3rd at the US Open, 11th in Scotland and an earlier win at the Valspar, a comp course featuring tight fairways, penal rough and abundant water. Stat-wise, Hovland has been gaining heavily with his irons for months and drove the ball “beautifully” here in 2024. Given Southwind’s clear bias toward elite ball-strikers, Coley labels Hovland the main threat to Scottie Scheffler and an outstanding each-way play at 33/1.

Ben Coley advised a 3-point each-way bet on Ludvig Aberg at 28/1, arguing that Southwind’s demand for pure ball-striking is tailor-made for the Swede. Aberg was 10th in strokes-gained off-the-tee here last year and slightly positive with his approaches despite a disastrous week around the greens, showing the long-game foundation Southwind rewards. Since 1 June his iron play has flipped from losing roughly 0.5 strokes per round to gaining 0.76, pushing his overall tee-to-green gain above +2 per round—an eight-shot improvement over 72 holes. Coley compared Aberg’s trajectory to Will Zalatoris, noting parallel flashes (nearly winning the Masters on debut, excelling at Torrey Pines where Aberg captured this year’s Genesis). While Aberg’s chipping and streaky putting remain concerns, Coley believes the recent surge in long-game form coupled with Southwind’s status as “arguably the number-one tee-to-green course on Tour” makes 28/1 generous value.

Coley fired a speculative 1-point each-way dart at Callum Tarren at a massive 180/1. While many DP World Tour players arrive after a Munich slog, Tarren skipped Germany and brings fresher legs plus confidence from contending three times in Europe this year (8th Bahrain, 5th Austria two starts ago, and in the hunt at KLM). On the PGA Tour he’s logged top-10s at the 3M, John Deere, Fortinet, and RSM, and was 5th on debut in Puerto Rico along with 21st in this event last season when badly out of form. The Englishman attended college in Virginia and has lived in the States for years, giving him familiarity with heat, bermuda grass, and American parkland setups. Coley argues those “loud bangs on the door” plus a proven ability to contend against better fields make 180/1 mispriced.

Coley recommended 1-point each-way on Harry Higgs at 80/1, emphasizing that the move from driver-heavy Keene Trace to a tighter par-70 should mask Higgs’ weakest club and highlight his strong iron play. The Big Rig has proven he is too good for the Korn Ferry (two 2024 wins) and thrives in lower-grade PGA events: runner-up at Myrtle Beach this spring, 2nd Bermuda 2020, 7th Puerto Rico, 11th Barracuda. Recent stats show above-average putting in three of his last six starts and a solid 24th in Detroit before last week’s MC. Having grown up in Kansas and won in Missouri and Tennessee, Higgs is comfortable in mid-south summer heat, and Coley believes his boom-or-bust profile carries massive upside in “an even weaker field than Myrtle Beach.”

Coley placed 1-point each-way on Indiana native Adam Schenk at 70/1, leaning on a home-region narrative and a resume that once took him to the 2023 Tour Championship. Hurstbourne’s shorter par-70 setup mirrors tracks where Schenk owns seven classical-course top-10s, including runner-up at Colonial and multiple top-10s at Waialae and Deere Run. In opposite events he’s posted 4th (Puerto Rico), 4th (Barracuda), and 7th (Corales), and he has two top-20s in three prior starts at this tournament despite Keene Trace being ill-suited to him. Friends and family are expected to attend the two-hour drive from his hometown, and Coley believes that home comfort plus a class edge over a “shockingly thin field” make 70/1 too big.

Coley staked 1-point each-way on Jackson Suber at 60/1, arguing that Hurstbourne’s short, tree-lined par-70 profile fits the rookie’s wedge-heavy game. Suber has rattled off ten straight sub-70 rounds, including twin 69s at the John Deere, a 63 at Colonial (another Keith Foster restoration), and finishes of 16th (Canadian Open) and 6th (Rocket Mortgage) on similar layouts. His iron play, especially from 125-150 yards, has flashed elite levels on the Korn Ferry and PGA circuits, and recent driving-distance gains alleviate earlier concerns. Sitting 17 spots outside the FedEx Cup top-125, Suber views opposite-field weeks like this and Barracuda as prime chances to lock up 2026 status. Coley sees a “much higher ceiling than most here” and values the 60/1 with eight places available.

Ben Coley recommended a 4-point each-way wager on Michael Thorbjornsen at 16/1 to land his maiden PGA Tour title in what he called “one of the weakest fields of the season.” Coley noted that seven of the top-10 betting choices have never won on Tour and argued the world-amateur-No.1-turned-pro should be shorter than 16s given current form. Thorbjornsen finished fourth in Detroit two weeks ago, was runner-up in the Corales Puntacana opposite-field event, and closed last week’s John Deere with a ball-striking clinic—ranking first in the field in approach play after his lone weakness had been irons. His power driver remains the main weapon, and Coley drew parallels to Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, who both broke through in similar opposite events. With recent momentum and premier length against a shallow field, Coley believes Thorbjornsen is “the one they all have to beat.”

Ben Coley identifies Alejandro Tosti as a strong value selection in his debut at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Tosti’s recent form has been eye-catching: second tee-to-green in Houston and top in that statistic for 12th place in the Valero Texas Open, demonstrating excellent recent approach-play and improved driving accuracy. Despite his putter occasionally letting him down, Coley believes the generous fairways and second-shot emphasis of the Puntacana course will suit Tosti, since he won previously at another similarly long Korn Ferry Tour venue and showed strong performances at the Mexico Open on similar tropical resort courses, with two prior 10th-place finishes. Coley argues Tosti’s proven record on comparable layouts makes him a strong contender, even in his first appearance at Puntacana.

Ben Coley recommends Chan Kim as a strong contender at the Corales Puntacana Championship, emphasizing his fit and recent solid form. Kim recently tied fifth at the Texas Open with a strong tee-to-green performance, ranking seventh in that statistic after previously ranking 13th at the Valspar. Coley points to Kim's proven record on similar, wide-open Caribbean resort courses: two top-20 finishes at the Puerto Rico Open, eighth and 17th place finishes at the Mexico Open, and a sixth-place finish at Puntacana last year, where Kim notably opened and closed strong rounds. Coley stresses Kim’s global winning experience and improved familiarity from his 2024 debut appearance at Puntacana as further reasons to be confident in his chances.

Ben Coley recommends backing Emiliano Grillo at the Corales Puntacana Championship, highlighting Grillo's recent improving form. Coley notes that Grillo has shown steady progress lately, finishing 22nd at the Valspar Championship and 18th in the Valero Texas Open, with strong positions at halfway (11th, 9th, 19th, and 6th) across his last four events. Grillo himself recognizes he's trending positively, indicating improved putting and overall play consistency. Coley adds that Grillo performed well in similar Caribbean resort course conditions before; he placed sixth at Puntacana in 2021, and boasts even stronger finishes—second, third, and 11th—at the comparable Puerto Rico Open. Given Grillo's class advantage dropping into a weaker field, Coley considers him dangerous at this event.

Ben Coley strongly favors Cameron Smith as top Australian player at The Masters, disagreeing with market odds that lean toward Min Woo Lee. Coley cites Smith's exceptional Masters track record—including finishes of second (2020), third (2022), fifth (2018), sixth (2024), and tenth (2021). Smith's extensive experience and consistently high performances make him far more trustworthy at Augusta compared to Lee, who only recently won under easier course conditions in Houston. Considering form, familiarity, and Augusta-specific aptitude, Coley believes Smith's odds represent significant betting value, making him an excellent play in the Australian market.

Ben Coley identifies Byeong Hun An as excellent value to finish as the top Korean player at The Masters given recent form contrasts. He emphasizes that fellow Koreans Tom Kim and Sungjae Im are badly out of form. Coley points out Im's alarming decline in approach play, ranking 181st of 186 on Tour, and Kim having only one top-30 in nine 2025 appearances. By contrast, An impressed at Augusta last year, ranking second in strokes gained tee-to-green while placing 16th. Recent strong performances—two top-20s in his last three starts—and success over Tom Kim in a playoff further support An as the clear choice among Korean players.

Ben Coley believes Davis Thompson is a compelling bet to be the top debutant at the Masters because of his familiarity and roots near Augusta. Thompson grew up near Atlanta, attended college at University of Georgia, and currently lives at Sea Island, making Augusta effectively a home game. His form recently picked up at The PLAYERS Championship, where his approach play improved, and he followed that by finishing 27th in Houston. Coley sees Thompson's impressive long-game skillset as particularly suitable to Augusta, reminiscent of Thompson's breakout win following a strong ninth-place showing at last summer’s US Open. Coley argues these factors give Thompson a distinct edge over other debutants.

Ben Coley strongly recommends betting Maverick McNealy as top debutant at the Masters. He highlights McNealy's excellent recent form, including winning the RSM Classic, finishing runner-up in a Signature Event to Ludvig Aberg, and coming third at last week's event in Texas. Coley notes McNealy's strong driving distance, significantly improved iron play, and confident putting. He also believes returning to Georgia, where McNealy recently earned his first PGA Tour victory, will boost his confidence. Coley views McNealy as clearly the best newcomer, even suggesting he has a fighting chance to become the first debut winner at Augusta since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Ben Coley suggests Tim Widing as a speculative longshot at enormous 500/1 odds, highlighting the Swede's notably strong driving prowess. Widing showed promising signs by producing a second-round 67 in Houston despite short putting miscues. Coley recalls Widing's prior success around this time last year, winning consecutive events including one in Texas at a course rewarding big-hitters. Pairing Widing’s powerful, long driving game and potential momentum from improved recent iron play, Coley sees meaningful upside in his massive price.

Ben Coley identifies Isaiah Salinda as a valuable longshot at 100/1, praising Salinda's impressive recent performances driving the golf ball consistently well. Excluding a stumble at Sawgrass, Salinda has repeatedly gained strokes from tee-to-green, with notably improving putting rounds recently in Houston. Salinda's Korn Ferry victory under difficult conditions and his comfort level since joining the PGA Tour confirm his upside. Coley expects Salinda's potent driving to translate effectively onto the strategic challenges posed by TPC San Antonio.

Ben Coley recommends Chris Kirk at generous 80/1 odds due to Kirk’s stellar record at the Valero Texas Open—five top-15 finishes in nine appearances. Kirk showed signs of putting improvements at TPC Sawgrass, his main area of recent weakness, underpinning potential gains. Furthermore, Kirk excels historically off-the-tee and with reliable irons at San Antonio. Coley sees Kirk’s veteran status, proficiency on similar courses, and recent glimpses of better putting as key indicators he's ready to deliver another strong showing prior to his Masters participation.

Ben Coley supports Lee Hodges at 66/1 odds after a promising return from a minor rib injury with an 11th-place finish in Houston. Coley points out multiple reasons for optimism: Hodges performed well initially after a lengthy layoff, handled a challenging long course last week, and boasts consistently strong tee-to-green performances in past starts at San Antonio. Having overcome putting struggles that hurt his performance here previously, Coley expects Hodges' restored short-game confidence—paired with excellent course history and proven ball-striking—to significantly boost his chances this week.

Ben Coley sees Sam Stevens as an appealing choice at 50/1 for the Valero Texas Open, referencing Stevens' strong course history. Stevens finished runner-up at San Antonio in his rookie season and placed 14th even amidst weaker form last year. Coming off an encouraging 18th-place finish in Houston last week—highlighted by two rounds of 65—Stevens appears poised to capitalize at a comfortable venue. Coley acknowledges minor concerns about Stevens' busy schedule chasing a Masters berth but is reassured by Stevens recently taking a week off, reducing potential fatigue risks.

Ben Coley believes Maverick McNealy is significantly undervalued at 50/1 odds for the Valero Texas Open. Coley highlights McNealy's recent strong showing in Houston where he finished 32nd but notably ranked 11th in strokes-gained tee-to-green despite subpar putting. Given McNealy's history of bounce-back performances with the putter, Coley sees potential for positive regression on San Antonio greens. Additionally, McNealy demonstrated strong ball-striking in two previous events at TPC San Antonio and nearly won at Silverado—another venue that showcases similar skillset demands—underscoring his suitability this week.

Ben Coley strongly backs Ludvig Aberg to contend at the Valero Texas Open, noting Aberg's elite strokes-gained off-the-tee ranking at the Oaks Course last year, as well as his familiarity from collegiate events. Despite recently struggling at challenging Florida layouts like TPC Sawgrass, Coley emphasizes Aberg returning to a course he knows well in Texas—where ball-striking is crucial—as a significant advantage. Coley argues Aberg's odds should realistically be single-digit rather than 12/1, given his tee-to-green prowess and strong overall fit for this event.

Ben Coley advises backing Alejandro Tosti at 225/1, highlighting him as an aggressive driver whose style perfectly matches Memorial Park's wide-open and driver-friendly characteristics. Tosti was runner-up at this event last season, reinforcing his suitability for this course type. Coley pointed out Tosti's tendency to perform best at expansive and straightforward courses, evidenced also by his strong showing at Vidanta Vallarta. Although recent missed cuts have suggested struggles, Coley argues these resulted from playing courses ill-suited to Tosti's bold strategy. Recent strong iron play coupled with Tosti’s consistent success on similar course types signal a high-upside bet at generous odds.

Ben Coley recommended Hayden Springer as a betting long-shot at 200/1, stating Memorial Park's length and setup align perfectly with Springer's considerable power off the tee. Springer secured conditional PGA Tour status from four top-10 finishes last season and notably shot a 59 at the John Deere Classic. Recently, he's displayed consistent performances, making four cuts in five tournaments, including sixth at similarly challenging Torrey Pines. Despite a missed cut at Memorial Park last year, Springer excelled in tee-to-green play, only to struggle with putting. Presently in steadier form, Coley expects Springer—raised in Texas and playing essentially a home game—to significantly outperform market expectations in a venue closely matching his skillset.

Ben Coley identified Min Woo Lee as a solid betting choice at 35/1, emphasizing his consistent form over the past year with 19 top-20 finishes and only three missed cuts. Lee has shaken off past knee problems affecting his green-reading, and his recent iron play improvements (discounting a poor Bay Hill showing) signal readiness to contend. Coley underlines Memorial Park as an ideal venue imprint, calling attention to its emphasis on driver aggression and creativity around the greens, both suited to Lee's strengths. Despite being yet winless on the PGA Tour, Lee secured two runner-up finishes in the past year, marking him as a genuine threat to challenge elite contenders Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.

Ben Coley recommended backing Tony Finau at 30/1 at Memorial Park, crediting his consistent record on similar courses. Finau previously won here in 2022 and finished just one shot off the lead last year despite ranking 75th in putting for that week. Finau's combined performance at Memorial Park shows he consistently gains strokes tee-to-green, outperforming the field by nearly nine strokes across four rounds. Despite recent struggles at unsuitable courses like Sawgrass and Bay Hill, Coley noticed Finau's driving has significantly improved recently, particularly at Sawgrass—the best driving performance he's had since last April. Coley anticipates Finau will thrive yet again at Memorial Park's long and favorable setup.

Ben Coley strongly recommended betting on Jason Day, arguing his current 33/1 odds represent value due to an unfair market overreaction after a withdrawal at The PLAYERS due to a temporary stomach issue. Prior to this, Day was gaining significant momentum, finishing third, eighth, and 13th in recent starts. Coley noted Day's renewed partnership with former coach Col Swatton has improved areas such as putting and strokes gained. Day also showed good form at Memorial Park previously, recording an impressive 16th-place finish despite less impressive incoming form at the time. Coley's stance is reinforced by Day's history of winning events in Texas and solid long-term performances that are currently trending up.

Ben Coley targeted Justin Rose as an excellent longshot at three-figure odds for THE PLAYERS Championship, citing Rose's strong track record in top-tier events over the past year (two major top-10s, two top PGA signature event finishes) and further encouraged by his recent performances, especially his consistently strong putting and an impressive approach-play showing at Bay Hill. Rose clearly performs well at TPC Sawgrass, logging three top-10 finishes in his last nine appearances, significantly improving after the event moved to March. Coley underscored Rose's historical success on Pete Dye-designed courses, notably winning at TPC Louisiana, which closely mirrors Sawgrass features and required shots. Given Rose's desire to secure a Ryder Cup spot and ability to carry form forward from recent premier events into THE PLAYERS Championship, Coley concluded that his odds around 125/1 were highly attractive.

Ben Coley recommended backing Patrick Cantlay owing to unusually generous odds resulting from perceived underperformance at Sawgrass. Coley argued this perception misleadingly factors recent disappointing results over a historically volatile course. Cantlay's underlying skillset matches Sawgrass' demands exceptionally; he has frequently made excellent starts here before faltering. Cantlay displays robust strokes-gained metrics recently in approach play (ranking top-12 in his last three events), complementing his historically dominant off-the-tee metrics at Sawgrass. Additionally, Cantlay boasts a top-class record on Pete Dye designed tracks, excelling notably at Harbour Town, River Highlands, and TPC Louisiana. Cantlay now residing locally in Florida boosts comfort and recent top finishes in significant events supports Coley's valuation. Thus, his inflated current odds of around 40/1 present clear value in Coley's view.

Ben Coley identified Jason Day as undervalued at THE PLAYERS Championship, noting Day's recent positive trend following reuniting with longtime coach Col Swatton, particularly addressing putting struggles that previously diminished his performances. Coley emphasized Day's uplifting showing at Bay Hill, recovering strongly after starting poorly and moving into late contention before an isolated swing cost him. Day has repeatedly gained strokes with his irons recently, and a newly confident putter at Bay Hill signals potential success. Furthermore, Sawgrass perfectly complements Day's skills, evident from a dominant victory there previously and additional top-10 finishes. His strong form on Pete Dye-designed stadium courses such as Whistling Straits reinforces his course-fit narrative. Coley sees Day at 50/1 as exceptional betting value based on form, coaching improvements, proven Sawgrass affinity, and comfort under high-pressure situations at prominent venues.

Ben Coley enthusiastically supported Tommy Fleetwood's chances at THE PLAYERS Championship based on Fleetwood's exceptional tee-to-green consistency. Despite challenging course conditions at Bay Hill, Fleetwood delivered one of the best weekend performances, illustrating his reliability. Coley highlighted Fleetwood's proven strength in approach play beginning from his silver medal performance at the Olympics and maintained consistently since then. Crucially, Fleetwood has shown extreme comfort at TPC Sawgrass, making six cuts out of seven, frequently gaining significant strokes tee-to-green. Although the putter is a lingering concern, his solid history with Sawgrass' greens (slightly-above-average strokes-gained numbers) is reassuring. Coley emphasized Fleetwood's suitability for stadium-style courses like Le Golf National, where he excelled in both Ryder Cups and the Open de France. Despite not yet securing a PGA Tour victory, Coley cited Fleetwood's high probabilistic chance given consistent recent form and strong course fit, endorsing a bet at 28/1.

Ben Coley strongly backed Hideki Matsuyama to contend at THE PLAYERS Championship noting Matsuyama's exceptional course history at TPC Sawgrass highlighted by seven top-25 finishes in nine appearances, including four top-10s, as well as setting the course record with a nine-under 63 in the abandoned 2020 edition. Coley emphasized Matsuyama's elite iron play and touch around the greens, crucial at Sawgrass, where driving accuracy is somewhat less significant. While Matsuyama's putting can be inconsistent, Coley pointed out he's become increasingly streaky, winning three premier events at comparable stages when putting well (Southwind, The Sentry, Riviera). Additionally, Matsuyama excelled at another stadium-style course at Le Golf National during the Olympics, indicating his suitability to the unique demands of Sawgrass. Matsuyama enters after finishing impressively with a fifth-best strokes-gained tee-to-green performance on Sunday at Bay Hill. Given this compelling statistical and historical evidence, Coley recommended Matsuyama at attractive odds of 28/1.

Ben Coley firmly recommends Ludvig Aberg as an appealing favorite at odds of 4/9 in the top Swedish player bet at THE PLAYERS Championship due to his overwhelming talent edge. Coley highlights that Aberg is manifestly superior to the other two Swedish players competing—rookie Jesper Svensson, who struggled greatly last weekend, and Henrik Norlander, who is notably poor at Sawgrass with previous rounds totaling 13-over. Coley confidently forecasts a straightforward victory in this market for Aberg, noting that he considerably enhances the value of Coley's recommended nationality market treble.

Ben Coley emphasizes Corey Conners as a safe and appealing bet for the top Canadian golfer at THE PLAYERS Championship. Conners enters with excellent ball-striking form after contending last week and appears well-suited to Sawgrass. Nick Taylor poses some concern with impressive recent approach play, but Conners' other rivals notably lack proven Sawgrass performance or are struggling with form. Based on his elite tee-to-green consistency and recent contending finishes, Coley expects Conners to comfortably set a high competitive bar and potentially secure the top Canadian honor.

Ben Coley identifies Christiaan Bezuidenhout in top South African nationality bets as a highly attractive wager at even-money. Bezuidenhout recently impressed with a solid 19th-place finish at Bay Hill, marking strong current form. Additionally, he has consistent course history at Sawgrass with consecutive 13th-place finishes in recent editions of THE PLAYERS Championship. His only competition in this market, Aldrich Potgieter and Erik van Rooyen, are either inexperienced or inconsistent, giving Bezuidenhout a strong likelihood to comfortably lead this small field.

Ben Coley strongly advises placing a win-only outright wager at long odds (around 100-110) on Viktor Hovland to win THE PLAYERS Championship based on his exceptional recent iron play, recording his best approach metrics in nearly two years at Bay Hill last week. Although Hovland struggled on the greens and missed the cut, Coley points to Sawgrass being potentially more forgiving, especially after a reunion with his former coach. Hovland also has demonstrated past success at this venue with two top-10 finishes in four appearances and is capable of contending in major events. Coley suggests this wager also offers significant trading possibilities if Hovland starts well.

Ben Coley believes Keith Mitchell offers sharp value for first-round leader bets at THE PLAYERS Championship. Mitchell tees off early, a significant advantage based on Sawgrass recent early-round history, with eight out of the last ten first-round leaders starting early. Mitchell has a history of strong performances at Sawgrass, carding rounds like his second-best-of-the-day 65 back in 2019. He's driving the ball excellently again and recently opened strong at the Cognizant Classic with a 64, making him Coley’s preferred longer-odds selection for the first-round lead market.

Ben Coley is bullish on Wyndham Clark to lead after round one at THE PLAYERS Championship. Clark has consistently started fast recently, having led after round one in two of his previous three starts and at this same event last year. Sawgrass has been wet recently, and conditions favor longer hitters who play early, as history shows eight of ten first-round leaders at Sawgrass since the event moved to March teed off early. Clark is known as a long-hitter who's streaky and capable of going low on the greens, making him ideal for this scenario at appealing odds around 66/1.

Ben Coley recommends Justin Thomas as a top first-round leader pick at THE PLAYERS Championship, leaning into Thomas' strong combination of current form and excellent Sawgrass track record. While his putter has been inconsistent over full tournaments, Thomas regularly posts solid opening rounds, with five top-10 after round-one finishes since last summer and no worse than 30th this season. Additionally, conditions favor early starters, and Thomas is scheduled to tee off early. With prior Sawgrass rounds of 64 and 65 and a past THE PLAYERS Championship victory, Thomas represents an ideal candidate for first-round leader betting at around 40/1 odds.

Ben Coley advises betting on Cameron Davis as a first-round leader at THE PLAYERS Championship due to his power, streakiness, and prior success on similar classical and Pete Dye-designed courses. Davis recently opened with strong rounds at Bay Hill and Pebble Beach in similarly elite fields. Coley highlights Davis' past record at Sawgrass, where he contended in 2023, and his favorable results at Donald Ross designs and River Highlands. Despite his inconsistency, evidenced by a second-round 80 leading to a missed cut last week, Davis presents compelling upside to go very low on day one at odds of around 125/1.

Ben Coley praised Karl Vilips as a strong prospect after noting his impressive performance at the Puerto Rico Open, describing Vilips as someone fantasy and betting players should closely monitor. Coley emphasized Vilips' technically excellent and aesthetically pleasing swing alongside considerable power and balance. Despite inconsistent recent form characterized by injury setbacks and inconsistent results on the Korn Ferry Tour, Vilips demonstrated his potential with this victory. Coley sees him as a serious prospect due to his powerful yet technically appealing swing mechanics, reinforcing his durability as a promising young player well worth tracking closely in upcoming PGA Tour events and fantasy formats.

Ben Coley identified persistent short game struggles from tight lies as a growing limiting factor for Collin Morikawa. Coley cites recent specific examples at the Hero, Sentry Tournament of Champions, and Arnold Palmer Invitational, where poor chips and pitches from tight lies severely hurt Morikawa's leaderboard positions and contributed to his difficulty closing tournaments. Coley provided a vivid comparison, noting how Shane Lowry comfortably chipped close from the exact same problematic spot where Morikawa hit a poor shot under pressure. Despite strong mid-to-long iron play returning to elite levels, Coley expressed concern this short-game issue could repeatedly hinder Morikawa's ability to convert tournament-winning opportunities until resolved.

Ben Coley highlighted Jason Day as a golfer worth backing soon, specifically pointing out that Day's recent reunion with his old coach, Col Swatton, showed immediate positive returns in his putting at Arnold Palmer Invitational. Coley underscored the significant improvement in Day's stroke on the greens, connecting this directly to reuniting with the coach that guided him during much of his past success. Given Day's historical comfort and poise in major tournaments, Coley anticipates further strong performances and indicates he is a strong upside target both for fantasy golf and betting lines in upcoming events.