Ben Coley identifies Alejandro Tosti as a strong value selection in his debut at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Tosti’s recent form has been eye-catching: second tee-to-green in Houston and top in that statistic for 12th place in the Valero Texas Open, demonstrating excellent recent approach-play and improved driving accuracy. Despite his putter occasionally letting him down, Coley believes the generous fairways and second-shot emphasis of the Puntacana course will suit Tosti, since he won previously at another similarly long Korn Ferry Tour venue and showed strong performances at the Mexico Open on similar tropical resort courses, with two prior 10th-place finishes. Coley argues Tosti’s proven record on comparable layouts makes him a strong contender, even in his first appearance at Puntacana.

Ben Coley recommends Chan Kim as a strong contender at the Corales Puntacana Championship, emphasizing his fit and recent solid form. Kim recently tied fifth at the Texas Open with a strong tee-to-green performance, ranking seventh in that statistic after previously ranking 13th at the Valspar. Coley points to Kim's proven record on similar, wide-open Caribbean resort courses: two top-20 finishes at the Puerto Rico Open, eighth and 17th place finishes at the Mexico Open, and a sixth-place finish at Puntacana last year, where Kim notably opened and closed strong rounds. Coley stresses Kim’s global winning experience and improved familiarity from his 2024 debut appearance at Puntacana as further reasons to be confident in his chances.

Ben Coley recommends backing Emiliano Grillo at the Corales Puntacana Championship, highlighting Grillo's recent improving form. Coley notes that Grillo has shown steady progress lately, finishing 22nd at the Valspar Championship and 18th in the Valero Texas Open, with strong positions at halfway (11th, 9th, 19th, and 6th) across his last four events. Grillo himself recognizes he's trending positively, indicating improved putting and overall play consistency. Coley adds that Grillo performed well in similar Caribbean resort course conditions before; he placed sixth at Puntacana in 2021, and boasts even stronger finishes—second, third, and 11th—at the comparable Puerto Rico Open. Given Grillo's class advantage dropping into a weaker field, Coley considers him dangerous at this event.

Ben Coley strongly favors Cameron Smith as top Australian player at The Masters, disagreeing with market odds that lean toward Min Woo Lee. Coley cites Smith's exceptional Masters track record—including finishes of second (2020), third (2022), fifth (2018), sixth (2024), and tenth (2021). Smith's extensive experience and consistently high performances make him far more trustworthy at Augusta compared to Lee, who only recently won under easier course conditions in Houston. Considering form, familiarity, and Augusta-specific aptitude, Coley believes Smith's odds represent significant betting value, making him an excellent play in the Australian market.

Ben Coley identifies Byeong Hun An as excellent value to finish as the top Korean player at The Masters given recent form contrasts. He emphasizes that fellow Koreans Tom Kim and Sungjae Im are badly out of form. Coley points out Im's alarming decline in approach play, ranking 181st of 186 on Tour, and Kim having only one top-30 in nine 2025 appearances. By contrast, An impressed at Augusta last year, ranking second in strokes gained tee-to-green while placing 16th. Recent strong performances—two top-20s in his last three starts—and success over Tom Kim in a playoff further support An as the clear choice among Korean players.

Ben Coley believes Davis Thompson is a compelling bet to be the top debutant at the Masters because of his familiarity and roots near Augusta. Thompson grew up near Atlanta, attended college at University of Georgia, and currently lives at Sea Island, making Augusta effectively a home game. His form recently picked up at The PLAYERS Championship, where his approach play improved, and he followed that by finishing 27th in Houston. Coley sees Thompson's impressive long-game skillset as particularly suitable to Augusta, reminiscent of Thompson's breakout win following a strong ninth-place showing at last summer’s US Open. Coley argues these factors give Thompson a distinct edge over other debutants.

Ben Coley strongly recommends betting Maverick McNealy as top debutant at the Masters. He highlights McNealy's excellent recent form, including winning the RSM Classic, finishing runner-up in a Signature Event to Ludvig Aberg, and coming third at last week's event in Texas. Coley notes McNealy's strong driving distance, significantly improved iron play, and confident putting. He also believes returning to Georgia, where McNealy recently earned his first PGA Tour victory, will boost his confidence. Coley views McNealy as clearly the best newcomer, even suggesting he has a fighting chance to become the first debut winner at Augusta since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Ben Coley suggests Tim Widing as a speculative longshot at enormous 500/1 odds, highlighting the Swede's notably strong driving prowess. Widing showed promising signs by producing a second-round 67 in Houston despite short putting miscues. Coley recalls Widing's prior success around this time last year, winning consecutive events including one in Texas at a course rewarding big-hitters. Pairing Widing’s powerful, long driving game and potential momentum from improved recent iron play, Coley sees meaningful upside in his massive price.

Ben Coley identifies Isaiah Salinda as a valuable longshot at 100/1, praising Salinda's impressive recent performances driving the golf ball consistently well. Excluding a stumble at Sawgrass, Salinda has repeatedly gained strokes from tee-to-green, with notably improving putting rounds recently in Houston. Salinda's Korn Ferry victory under difficult conditions and his comfort level since joining the PGA Tour confirm his upside. Coley expects Salinda's potent driving to translate effectively onto the strategic challenges posed by TPC San Antonio.

Ben Coley recommends Chris Kirk at generous 80/1 odds due to Kirk’s stellar record at the Valero Texas Open—five top-15 finishes in nine appearances. Kirk showed signs of putting improvements at TPC Sawgrass, his main area of recent weakness, underpinning potential gains. Furthermore, Kirk excels historically off-the-tee and with reliable irons at San Antonio. Coley sees Kirk’s veteran status, proficiency on similar courses, and recent glimpses of better putting as key indicators he's ready to deliver another strong showing prior to his Masters participation.

Ben Coley supports Lee Hodges at 66/1 odds after a promising return from a minor rib injury with an 11th-place finish in Houston. Coley points out multiple reasons for optimism: Hodges performed well initially after a lengthy layoff, handled a challenging long course last week, and boasts consistently strong tee-to-green performances in past starts at San Antonio. Having overcome putting struggles that hurt his performance here previously, Coley expects Hodges' restored short-game confidence—paired with excellent course history and proven ball-striking—to significantly boost his chances this week.

Ben Coley sees Sam Stevens as an appealing choice at 50/1 for the Valero Texas Open, referencing Stevens' strong course history. Stevens finished runner-up at San Antonio in his rookie season and placed 14th even amidst weaker form last year. Coming off an encouraging 18th-place finish in Houston last week—highlighted by two rounds of 65—Stevens appears poised to capitalize at a comfortable venue. Coley acknowledges minor concerns about Stevens' busy schedule chasing a Masters berth but is reassured by Stevens recently taking a week off, reducing potential fatigue risks.

Ben Coley believes Maverick McNealy is significantly undervalued at 50/1 odds for the Valero Texas Open. Coley highlights McNealy's recent strong showing in Houston where he finished 32nd but notably ranked 11th in strokes-gained tee-to-green despite subpar putting. Given McNealy's history of bounce-back performances with the putter, Coley sees potential for positive regression on San Antonio greens. Additionally, McNealy demonstrated strong ball-striking in two previous events at TPC San Antonio and nearly won at Silverado—another venue that showcases similar skillset demands—underscoring his suitability this week.

Ben Coley strongly backs Ludvig Aberg to contend at the Valero Texas Open, noting Aberg's elite strokes-gained off-the-tee ranking at the Oaks Course last year, as well as his familiarity from collegiate events. Despite recently struggling at challenging Florida layouts like TPC Sawgrass, Coley emphasizes Aberg returning to a course he knows well in Texas—where ball-striking is crucial—as a significant advantage. Coley argues Aberg's odds should realistically be single-digit rather than 12/1, given his tee-to-green prowess and strong overall fit for this event.

Ben Coley advises backing Alejandro Tosti at 225/1, highlighting him as an aggressive driver whose style perfectly matches Memorial Park's wide-open and driver-friendly characteristics. Tosti was runner-up at this event last season, reinforcing his suitability for this course type. Coley pointed out Tosti's tendency to perform best at expansive and straightforward courses, evidenced also by his strong showing at Vidanta Vallarta. Although recent missed cuts have suggested struggles, Coley argues these resulted from playing courses ill-suited to Tosti's bold strategy. Recent strong iron play coupled with Tosti’s consistent success on similar course types signal a high-upside bet at generous odds.

Ben Coley recommended Hayden Springer as a betting long-shot at 200/1, stating Memorial Park's length and setup align perfectly with Springer's considerable power off the tee. Springer secured conditional PGA Tour status from four top-10 finishes last season and notably shot a 59 at the John Deere Classic. Recently, he's displayed consistent performances, making four cuts in five tournaments, including sixth at similarly challenging Torrey Pines. Despite a missed cut at Memorial Park last year, Springer excelled in tee-to-green play, only to struggle with putting. Presently in steadier form, Coley expects Springer—raised in Texas and playing essentially a home game—to significantly outperform market expectations in a venue closely matching his skillset.

Ben Coley identified Min Woo Lee as a solid betting choice at 35/1, emphasizing his consistent form over the past year with 19 top-20 finishes and only three missed cuts. Lee has shaken off past knee problems affecting his green-reading, and his recent iron play improvements (discounting a poor Bay Hill showing) signal readiness to contend. Coley underlines Memorial Park as an ideal venue imprint, calling attention to its emphasis on driver aggression and creativity around the greens, both suited to Lee's strengths. Despite being yet winless on the PGA Tour, Lee secured two runner-up finishes in the past year, marking him as a genuine threat to challenge elite contenders Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.

Ben Coley recommended backing Tony Finau at 30/1 at Memorial Park, crediting his consistent record on similar courses. Finau previously won here in 2022 and finished just one shot off the lead last year despite ranking 75th in putting for that week. Finau's combined performance at Memorial Park shows he consistently gains strokes tee-to-green, outperforming the field by nearly nine strokes across four rounds. Despite recent struggles at unsuitable courses like Sawgrass and Bay Hill, Coley noticed Finau's driving has significantly improved recently, particularly at Sawgrass—the best driving performance he's had since last April. Coley anticipates Finau will thrive yet again at Memorial Park's long and favorable setup.

Ben Coley strongly recommended betting on Jason Day, arguing his current 33/1 odds represent value due to an unfair market overreaction after a withdrawal at The PLAYERS due to a temporary stomach issue. Prior to this, Day was gaining significant momentum, finishing third, eighth, and 13th in recent starts. Coley noted Day's renewed partnership with former coach Col Swatton has improved areas such as putting and strokes gained. Day also showed good form at Memorial Park previously, recording an impressive 16th-place finish despite less impressive incoming form at the time. Coley's stance is reinforced by Day's history of winning events in Texas and solid long-term performances that are currently trending up.

Ben Coley targeted Justin Rose as an excellent longshot at three-figure odds for THE PLAYERS Championship, citing Rose's strong track record in top-tier events over the past year (two major top-10s, two top PGA signature event finishes) and further encouraged by his recent performances, especially his consistently strong putting and an impressive approach-play showing at Bay Hill. Rose clearly performs well at TPC Sawgrass, logging three top-10 finishes in his last nine appearances, significantly improving after the event moved to March. Coley underscored Rose's historical success on Pete Dye-designed courses, notably winning at TPC Louisiana, which closely mirrors Sawgrass features and required shots. Given Rose's desire to secure a Ryder Cup spot and ability to carry form forward from recent premier events into THE PLAYERS Championship, Coley concluded that his odds around 125/1 were highly attractive.

Ben Coley recommended backing Patrick Cantlay owing to unusually generous odds resulting from perceived underperformance at Sawgrass. Coley argued this perception misleadingly factors recent disappointing results over a historically volatile course. Cantlay's underlying skillset matches Sawgrass' demands exceptionally; he has frequently made excellent starts here before faltering. Cantlay displays robust strokes-gained metrics recently in approach play (ranking top-12 in his last three events), complementing his historically dominant off-the-tee metrics at Sawgrass. Additionally, Cantlay boasts a top-class record on Pete Dye designed tracks, excelling notably at Harbour Town, River Highlands, and TPC Louisiana. Cantlay now residing locally in Florida boosts comfort and recent top finishes in significant events supports Coley's valuation. Thus, his inflated current odds of around 40/1 present clear value in Coley's view.

Ben Coley identified Jason Day as undervalued at THE PLAYERS Championship, noting Day's recent positive trend following reuniting with longtime coach Col Swatton, particularly addressing putting struggles that previously diminished his performances. Coley emphasized Day's uplifting showing at Bay Hill, recovering strongly after starting poorly and moving into late contention before an isolated swing cost him. Day has repeatedly gained strokes with his irons recently, and a newly confident putter at Bay Hill signals potential success. Furthermore, Sawgrass perfectly complements Day's skills, evident from a dominant victory there previously and additional top-10 finishes. His strong form on Pete Dye-designed stadium courses such as Whistling Straits reinforces his course-fit narrative. Coley sees Day at 50/1 as exceptional betting value based on form, coaching improvements, proven Sawgrass affinity, and comfort under high-pressure situations at prominent venues.

Ben Coley enthusiastically supported Tommy Fleetwood's chances at THE PLAYERS Championship based on Fleetwood's exceptional tee-to-green consistency. Despite challenging course conditions at Bay Hill, Fleetwood delivered one of the best weekend performances, illustrating his reliability. Coley highlighted Fleetwood's proven strength in approach play beginning from his silver medal performance at the Olympics and maintained consistently since then. Crucially, Fleetwood has shown extreme comfort at TPC Sawgrass, making six cuts out of seven, frequently gaining significant strokes tee-to-green. Although the putter is a lingering concern, his solid history with Sawgrass' greens (slightly-above-average strokes-gained numbers) is reassuring. Coley emphasized Fleetwood's suitability for stadium-style courses like Le Golf National, where he excelled in both Ryder Cups and the Open de France. Despite not yet securing a PGA Tour victory, Coley cited Fleetwood's high probabilistic chance given consistent recent form and strong course fit, endorsing a bet at 28/1.

Ben Coley strongly backed Hideki Matsuyama to contend at THE PLAYERS Championship noting Matsuyama's exceptional course history at TPC Sawgrass highlighted by seven top-25 finishes in nine appearances, including four top-10s, as well as setting the course record with a nine-under 63 in the abandoned 2020 edition. Coley emphasized Matsuyama's elite iron play and touch around the greens, crucial at Sawgrass, where driving accuracy is somewhat less significant. While Matsuyama's putting can be inconsistent, Coley pointed out he's become increasingly streaky, winning three premier events at comparable stages when putting well (Southwind, The Sentry, Riviera). Additionally, Matsuyama excelled at another stadium-style course at Le Golf National during the Olympics, indicating his suitability to the unique demands of Sawgrass. Matsuyama enters after finishing impressively with a fifth-best strokes-gained tee-to-green performance on Sunday at Bay Hill. Given this compelling statistical and historical evidence, Coley recommended Matsuyama at attractive odds of 28/1.

Ben Coley firmly recommends Ludvig Aberg as an appealing favorite at odds of 4/9 in the top Swedish player bet at THE PLAYERS Championship due to his overwhelming talent edge. Coley highlights that Aberg is manifestly superior to the other two Swedish players competing—rookie Jesper Svensson, who struggled greatly last weekend, and Henrik Norlander, who is notably poor at Sawgrass with previous rounds totaling 13-over. Coley confidently forecasts a straightforward victory in this market for Aberg, noting that he considerably enhances the value of Coley's recommended nationality market treble.

Ben Coley emphasizes Corey Conners as a safe and appealing bet for the top Canadian golfer at THE PLAYERS Championship. Conners enters with excellent ball-striking form after contending last week and appears well-suited to Sawgrass. Nick Taylor poses some concern with impressive recent approach play, but Conners' other rivals notably lack proven Sawgrass performance or are struggling with form. Based on his elite tee-to-green consistency and recent contending finishes, Coley expects Conners to comfortably set a high competitive bar and potentially secure the top Canadian honor.

Ben Coley identifies Christiaan Bezuidenhout in top South African nationality bets as a highly attractive wager at even-money. Bezuidenhout recently impressed with a solid 19th-place finish at Bay Hill, marking strong current form. Additionally, he has consistent course history at Sawgrass with consecutive 13th-place finishes in recent editions of THE PLAYERS Championship. His only competition in this market, Aldrich Potgieter and Erik van Rooyen, are either inexperienced or inconsistent, giving Bezuidenhout a strong likelihood to comfortably lead this small field.

Ben Coley strongly advises placing a win-only outright wager at long odds (around 100-110) on Viktor Hovland to win THE PLAYERS Championship based on his exceptional recent iron play, recording his best approach metrics in nearly two years at Bay Hill last week. Although Hovland struggled on the greens and missed the cut, Coley points to Sawgrass being potentially more forgiving, especially after a reunion with his former coach. Hovland also has demonstrated past success at this venue with two top-10 finishes in four appearances and is capable of contending in major events. Coley suggests this wager also offers significant trading possibilities if Hovland starts well.

Ben Coley believes Keith Mitchell offers sharp value for first-round leader bets at THE PLAYERS Championship. Mitchell tees off early, a significant advantage based on Sawgrass recent early-round history, with eight out of the last ten first-round leaders starting early. Mitchell has a history of strong performances at Sawgrass, carding rounds like his second-best-of-the-day 65 back in 2019. He's driving the ball excellently again and recently opened strong at the Cognizant Classic with a 64, making him Coley’s preferred longer-odds selection for the first-round lead market.

Ben Coley is bullish on Wyndham Clark to lead after round one at THE PLAYERS Championship. Clark has consistently started fast recently, having led after round one in two of his previous three starts and at this same event last year. Sawgrass has been wet recently, and conditions favor longer hitters who play early, as history shows eight of ten first-round leaders at Sawgrass since the event moved to March teed off early. Clark is known as a long-hitter who's streaky and capable of going low on the greens, making him ideal for this scenario at appealing odds around 66/1.

Ben Coley recommends Justin Thomas as a top first-round leader pick at THE PLAYERS Championship, leaning into Thomas' strong combination of current form and excellent Sawgrass track record. While his putter has been inconsistent over full tournaments, Thomas regularly posts solid opening rounds, with five top-10 after round-one finishes since last summer and no worse than 30th this season. Additionally, conditions favor early starters, and Thomas is scheduled to tee off early. With prior Sawgrass rounds of 64 and 65 and a past THE PLAYERS Championship victory, Thomas represents an ideal candidate for first-round leader betting at around 40/1 odds.

Ben Coley advises betting on Cameron Davis as a first-round leader at THE PLAYERS Championship due to his power, streakiness, and prior success on similar classical and Pete Dye-designed courses. Davis recently opened with strong rounds at Bay Hill and Pebble Beach in similarly elite fields. Coley highlights Davis' past record at Sawgrass, where he contended in 2023, and his favorable results at Donald Ross designs and River Highlands. Despite his inconsistency, evidenced by a second-round 80 leading to a missed cut last week, Davis presents compelling upside to go very low on day one at odds of around 125/1.

Ben Coley praised Karl Vilips as a strong prospect after noting his impressive performance at the Puerto Rico Open, describing Vilips as someone fantasy and betting players should closely monitor. Coley emphasized Vilips' technically excellent and aesthetically pleasing swing alongside considerable power and balance. Despite inconsistent recent form characterized by injury setbacks and inconsistent results on the Korn Ferry Tour, Vilips demonstrated his potential with this victory. Coley sees him as a serious prospect due to his powerful yet technically appealing swing mechanics, reinforcing his durability as a promising young player well worth tracking closely in upcoming PGA Tour events and fantasy formats.

Ben Coley identified persistent short game struggles from tight lies as a growing limiting factor for Collin Morikawa. Coley cites recent specific examples at the Hero, Sentry Tournament of Champions, and Arnold Palmer Invitational, where poor chips and pitches from tight lies severely hurt Morikawa's leaderboard positions and contributed to his difficulty closing tournaments. Coley provided a vivid comparison, noting how Shane Lowry comfortably chipped close from the exact same problematic spot where Morikawa hit a poor shot under pressure. Despite strong mid-to-long iron play returning to elite levels, Coley expressed concern this short-game issue could repeatedly hinder Morikawa's ability to convert tournament-winning opportunities until resolved.

Ben Coley highlighted Jason Day as a golfer worth backing soon, specifically pointing out that Day's recent reunion with his old coach, Col Swatton, showed immediate positive returns in his putting at Arnold Palmer Invitational. Coley underscored the significant improvement in Day's stroke on the greens, connecting this directly to reuniting with the coach that guided him during much of his past success. Given Day's historical comfort and poise in major tournaments, Coley anticipates further strong performances and indicates he is a strong upside target both for fantasy golf and betting lines in upcoming events.

Ben Coley strongly recommended fading Byeong Hun An at THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting An's recent struggles at TPC Sawgrass as a major red flag. Specifically noting that An posted a disastrous 11 on the iconic par-3 17th hole just a few years ago en route to carding an 83. Coley mentioned this implosion as particularly worrisome given the mental challenge Sawgrass presents. Even though An is available at seemingly attractive odds of 125-to-1, Coley emphasized his recent painful experiences at Sawgrass quickly overshadow this number, making him a golfer to avoid backing this week.

Ben Coley positioned Sam Burns as overrated for fantasy and betting due to his heavy dependency on putting strength, calling out his limited skillset elsewhere. Burns' wins have come frequently on similar layouts and specific types of courses (twice at Valspar, the Match Play Championship, Sanderson Farms, and Colonial). Coley emphasized Burns' irons are not elite enough to be considered truly world-class, causing reliance on strong putting weeks. Such a narrow skill set and reliance on putting makes Burns more inconsistent and less trustworthy as a betting or fantasy option at tournaments outside his comfort zones, indicating caution.

Ben Coley hesitantly labeled Sungjae Im as somewhat overrated due to a perception gap between his high market odds and comparatively limited victories. Despite winning the Shriners Children's Open and Honda Classic, Im's strike rate hasn't matched lofty market expectations. Coley acknowledged Im's notable talent and consistency, including his near victory at The Masters, but suggested his limited PGA Tour wins and over-reliance on specific events could make him overrated in betting markets. This suggests caution in outright betting strategies, despite Coley's admiration for Im as an elite player on the tour.