Ben Fawkes suggested sprinkling a stake on Bryson DeChambeau at 11-1. DeChambeau was just two shots off the 54-hole lead at Augusta before a final-round 75 dropped him to fifth, but Fawkes sees that performance — paired with his uptick in driving distance and iron control since switching back to a more traditional length set — as confirmation his game is major-ready again. Quail Hollow features three par-5s reachable only for the Tour’s longest hitters, giving DeChambeau a potential scoring edge. Fawkes believes the betting public is still skeptical after Bryson’s 2024 struggles, making 11-1 a fair price on his ceiling.

Ben Fawkes labeled Xander Schauffele a value play at 20-1. Schauffele returns as the defending champion yet is priced behind five golfers on the BetMGM board. Fawkes noted Schauffele’s elite consistency in majors — nine top-10s in his last 16 starts — and the fact he ranks 3rd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total this season. Quail Hollow’s long par-4s suit Schauffele’s strong driving accuracy (top 10) and reliable mid-iron proximity numbers. With his win equity already proven last year, Fawkes believes the market discount is unwarranted.

Ben Fawkes advised passing on Justin Thomas at 18-1. While Thomas owns two Wanamaker Trophies, the most recent in 2022, Fawkes emphasized the golfer’s erratic current form: five missed cuts in his last nine majors with only one top-20 finish during that stretch. The analyst noted that Thomas’ usually elite iron play has slipped outside the top 40 in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, making Quail Hollow a tough ask. Fawkes argued the betting market is pricing Thomas on reputation rather than recent performance and prefers allocating outrights elsewhere.

Ben Fawkes said Scottie Scheffler is still worth a wager at +450 even though he sits atop the odds board. Fawkes pointed to Scheffler’s scorching form — a runaway win at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago that tied the PGA Tour scoring record and a fourth-place finish at the Masters — plus two strong recent PGA Championship showings (solo 2nd in 2023 and T8 last year). Quail Hollow’s emphasis on driving and long-iron play dovetails with Scheffler’s statistical strengths (No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season), leading Fawkes to believe the market has not fully priced in the current gap between Scheffler and the rest of the field.