Bernie Kirt

2 Taeks

Matthew Golden: Love injury depresses early-season outlook and ADP

Spike Week

Trying to Recover at Wide Receiver in a High Stakes Draft (Rounds 4-6)

3 days ago

Bernie Kirt cautioned drafters on Matthew Golden after news that Jordan Love will miss the rest of the preseason for thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand. Kirt expects the injury to keep Green Bay extremely run-heavy out of the gate—mirroring last year’s slow offensive start when Love was playing through an ankle issue. Even though Kirt still believes in Golden’s talent long-term, he thinks the current uncertainty will scare the room and push Golden’s ADP back a full round, making it smarter to let him slide and scoop him later. Until Love is confirmed healthy, Kirt recommends passing on Golden at his current sixth-round price and reallocating those chips to safer wideouts or waiting for the discount to deepen.

Stick with convictions, don’t hedge in high-stakes drafts

Spike Week

High Stakes Best Ball Strategy | DraftKings $555 Round 1

15 days ago

Bernie Kirt advised drafters to treat the $555 as their biggest investment, not a portfolio hedge. He pushed back on the common move to fade high-exposure players "for diversification," arguing that if you believe a player belongs in 40 % of your BBM entries, you should gladly click him in the much-softer 555 because the expected win rate is higher. Swapping to zero-share players just to ‘balance’ exposure sacrifices conviction and, in his words, feels like "taking your best chips off the table when the stakes go up." Bottom line: draft the players you are most bullish on, even if that means reaching, because edge comes from conviction, not forced diversification.