BetMGM Betting leaned Under 8.5 total runs, citing Toronto’s 18-9 mark to the full-game Under in its last 27 contests (+8.07 units, 27% ROI) and the Jays’ heavy first-pitch contact issues (MLB-low .177 BA on 0-0 counts). Boston’s strikeout-averse pitching staff owns the 5th-highest ground-ball rate since 2023 (44%), while Toronto’s offense sits 23rd in run scoring. On the other side, the Blue Jays bullpen is top-3 in strikeout rate with two strikes (46%). Put together, BetMGM’s model projects only 7.7 combined runs, leaving enough cushion to play the Under 8.5 despite Tanner Houck’s recent struggles.

BetMGM Betting recommended taking Under 5.5 strikeouts on Jose Berrios (-155). The analysis hinges on Berrios generating a league-low 17% whiff rate on first pitches since 2024 and a 20% miss rate vs right-handed hitters—both bottom-10 percentile marks that cap his strikeout upside. Boston’s lineup may strike out vs lefties, but against right-handers it owns MLB’s best hard-hit rate and a bottom-third chase rate, forcing Berrios into contact. With the Red Sox putting just 26% of swings in play on first pitch (lowest in MLB), they extend counts rather than whiff early, further limiting quick K opportunities. BetMGM’s simulation lands Berrios at 4.8 punch-outs, making the Under playable down to ‑150.

BetMGM Betting pointed to Boston’s 17-10 record on the First-Five (F5) moneyline over their last 27 games (+9.8 units, 23% ROI) and recommended another play on the Sox at roughly even money. The edge centers on Tanner Houck’s extreme first-time-through splits (1.181 OPS allowed) being offset by Boston’s league-best 48% hard-hit rate against Jose Berrios’ low whiff profile. Meanwhile, Toronto ranks 23rd in runs scored and owns MLB’s worst first-pitch batting average (.177) in 2025, limiting early scoring upside. With Boston 13-0 when leading after eight frames, BetMGM sees value in banking on a fast Red Sox start before bullpens enter.

BetMGM Betting highlighted Carlos Narvaez’ home-run prop at + odds and framed it as a worthwhile flyer. Their write-up noted that the rookie catcher has cleared the 0.5 HR line in 3 of his last 9 games, a run that would have returned +24.5 units and a 272% ROI for anyone blindly tailing the Over. Boston currently owns MLB’s best hard-hit rate (48%), and Narvaez has posted a 46% pull rate against right-handed pitching, a profile that pairs well with the Rogers Centre power alley in left. With Jose Berrios owning just a 17% first-pitch whiff rate (second percentile among qualified starters), BetMGM’s staff believes Narvaez should get hittable offerings early in counts, making the Over 0.5 HR an enticing lottery ticket.

BetMGM Betting advised jumping on Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBI at +135. The model call-out leans on Devers cashing this exact prop in 7 of his last 8 games, good for +10.95 units and a 137% ROI. Boston’s offense leads the league in hard-hit rate, and Devers is sitting on a 56% hard-contact clip during the streak. Toronto’s starter Jose Berrios ranks in just the 4th percentile in right-handed miss rate and often falls behind hitters (56% of pitches away when behind in the count), a pattern that sets Devers up for repeat RBI chances. With the Red Sox implied for 4.3 runs and Devers back in the three-hole, BetMGM sees plenty of volume for another run-producer ticket to cash.

BetMGM Betting recommended backing the Dodgers on the moneyline despite the steep -325 price. Their in-house model gives Los Angeles a 69.6% win probability and several data points back that up. Tyler Glasnow owns a .136 opponents’ average the first time through the order and a 59% two-strike K-rate, both tops among qualified starters since 2023. Meanwhile Pittsburgh’s lineup is slugging just .378 dating back to last year and strikes out 26% of the time against left-handers and 34% in lefty-lefty situations, indicating difficulty adjusting when Dave Roberts turns the game over to his bullpen’s southpaws. The Pirates are 0-12 when allowing five or more runs this season and 7-51 when giving up 10+ hits since 2024, while the Dodgers are 182-33 when holding opponents to four or fewer runs over that same span. LA has also cashed the moneyline in 11 of its last 14 at Dodger Stadium (+4.7 units). Put it together and BetMGM Betting sees plenty of justification for swallowing the chalk.

BetMGM Betting advised playing Mookie Betts Under 0.5 Total Bases (+190). Betts has failed to record a base in 13 of his last 15 games, a trend that has returned +10.5 units (47% ROI). Bailey Falter’s pitch mix—heavy first-pitch inside and soft-spinning curveballs—has actually succeeded at generating weak contact early in counts. With Betts showing a 27-point dip in hard-hit rate during this skid, the tout views the plus-money under as the sharper side until the former MVP snaps out of his funk.

BetMGM Betting pointed to the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Oneil Cruz at +400. Cruz has cleared this number in six of his last nine games, generating +21.85 units and a 243% ROI for anyone tailing the trend. Although facing Tyler Glasnow is a difficult assignment, Dodger Stadium’s afternoon conditions generally boost left-handed power and Cruz’s 118-mph max-exit velocity ranks in the top 1% of MLB. Bettors looking for a high-payout dart can ride the recent heater at four-to-one odds.

BetMGM Betting highlighted the Over 6.5 strikeouts (-150) for Tyler Glasnow. Since the start of 2023 right-handers are hitting just .167 against him and his 59% strikeout rate when he gets to two strikes is best in baseball. Opponents have produced only a .188 OBP the first time through the order, giving Glasnow extra chances to work deep. Pittsburgh profiles as a friendly matchup: its hitters own MLB’s lowest batting average on pitches outside the zone (.101) and have struck out in-zone 51% of the time, fourth highest in the league. The Pirates also fan 26% of the time against lefties and have struggled similarly versus premium velocity. Given Glasnow’s pitch efficiency, BetMGM Betting expects seven or more punch-outs.

BetMGM Betting suggested continuing to play Alejandro Kirk under 0.5 runs (priced around –125 to –135). The catcher has failed to score in 14 of his last 15 contests, banking +11.95 units (36% ROI). Sunday’s matchup is even tougher: Max Fried induces a league-high 59% ground-ball rate overall, and Yankee pitchers own the best ground-ball batting average with runners on (.174). Toronto’s lineup has also chased 38% of pitches out of the zone with RISP (highest in MLB) and slugged just .349 versus lefties last season. All signs point to limited table-setting opportunities for Kirk, making the run-scored under a strong bet.

BetMGM Betting highlighted Ben Rice’s home-run prop at +375 as a plus-odds dart throw worth sprinkling. Rice has cleared 0.5 homers in 4 of his last 10 home games, good for +17.7 units and a 177% ROI. He faces Kevin Gausman, who locates his four-seam up in the zone 78% of the time (highest among qualified starters) — a spot where the left-handed Rice has produced 57% of his barrels since Triple-A. With hitter-friendly weather (70° and an 8-mph out-to-right wind) and the short right-field porch, the tout likes taking a small shot on Rice to leave the yard again.

BetMGM Betting projected New York to win Sunday’s game 58.9% of the time, making the Yankees a value even at the –190 moneyline. The model weighed several factors: Max Fried’s 1.42 ERA and league-best 62% ground-ball rate in two-strike counts, Toronto’s .287 SLG on first-pitch swings (worst in MLB) and .349 SLG vs left-handed pitching last season, plus New York’s own elite 12% walk rate against southpaws. The Yankees are also 87-27 (.763) when they score in the first inning since 2023, while the Blue Jays rank 23-87 (.209) when held to four runs or fewer. With Fried’s ground-ball profile neutralizing Toronto power and Kevin Gausman allowing a .344 OBP since 2024, the staff recommended backing the Yankees on the full-game moneyline and first-five moneyline.

BetMGM Betting suggests a favorable betting opportunity on Michael Wacha's Hits Allowed UNDER prop, noting he has hit this under in 7 of his last 10 away games for a solid +3.40 units profit and a 27% ROI. Given the Yankees' selective hitting approach—lowest swing rate against left-handed pitchers—Wacha's consistent performances of limiting hits away from home presents a lucrative betting angle even against a tough New York lineup.

BetMGM Betting underscores Michael Wacha's inability to pitch deep into road games, reporting that his pitching outs UNDER prop has hit in 3 of his last 4 away games for a strong +2.55 units and 61% ROI. Considering Yankees hitters have demonstrated significant patience at the plate (MLB-high 17% walk rate against inning leadoff batters this month), Wacha may struggle to keep pitch counts down, adding value to the under on his pitching outs against this disciplined New York offense.

BetMGM Betting revealed their model gives the Yankees a solid 61.9% chance to win Tuesday's matchup against the Royals. The prediction factored recent player performances, critical injuries, starting pitchers (notably Max Fried's MLB-best groundball rate and sharp 2025 ERA of 1.56), and team metrics like the Yankees' elite home slugging numbers (.584 slugging percentage at home). The strength of these variables clearly tilts Matchup Expectations significantly in favor of New York potentially justifying their sizable -210 moneyline.

BetMGM Betting detailed a compelling trend concerning the Yankees' performance at home—highlighting they've hit the Team Total OVER in 19 of their last 30 home games (+5.90 Units, 17% ROI) and specifically achieved the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total OVER in 6 of their previous 8 home contests (+3.95 Units, 42% ROI). Given starter Michael Wacha's concerning road metrics and Yankees hitters slugging an impressive .584 at home, these trends back a confident stance on Yankees offense remaining explosive early in this matchup.

BetMGM Betting spotlighted a sustained betting trend regarding totals in Royals games, as Kansas City has delivered money-making consistency with the Game Total UNDER cashing in 25 of their last 33 contests, resulting in +17.25 Units and a robust 47% ROI. With Yankees pitcher Max Fried holding a 1.56 ERA and excellent groundball metrics (58% opponent groundball rate since last year), this Royals UNDER trend combines ideally with Fried's profile for a promising wagering scenario going under the total runs line.

BetMGM Betting pointed to Michael Wacha's recent concerning trend in road starts, highlighting that he has hit the earned runs OVER prop in 3 of his last 4 away games, generating a +2.20 Units profit and a 53% ROI. His breaking pitches have not found the strike zone consistently, achieving only a 47% strike rate—lowest amongst pitchers with over 70 innings pitched. Facing a Yankees roster at home that slugs .584 and draws walks at an MLB-high rate versus lefties, Wacha's long-term weaknesses away from home are significantly heightened against this dangerous offensive lineup disguised in a hitter-friendly stadium.

BetMGM Betting points out the Chicago Cubs' remarkable success in first five innings (F5) run line bets, covering in 12 of their last 13 games. This trend yields an impressive +11.15 unit profit and a significant 72% ROI, highlighting this team's early-inning superiority as a reliable betting target.

BetMGM Betting recommends betting on Shohei Ohtani's RBI prop over 0.5, awarded appealing +120 odds. Ohtani is positioned favorably in the Dodgers' lineup and boasts strong recent production numbers, making this a high-upside, positive-value betting option given the odds being offered.

BetMGM Betting notes the Cubs have been outstanding in surpassing their team total line recently, clearing the over in 9 of their last 12 games. This betting approach has returned +6.00 units (43% ROI) during that span, highlighting a hot offense and market inefficiencies in the Cubs' scoring capabilities.

BetMGM Betting advises that Tommy Edman has demonstrated consistent success exceeding his total bases prop at home, clearing this target in 20 of his last 25 home games. This consistent ability to rack up extra base hits at Dodger Stadium, which returned +13.60 units and a 35% ROI, positions Edman as a highly advantageous prop option in today's matchup.

BetMGM Betting identifies Tyler Glasnow as a strong candidate for the strikeout over prop (6.5 Ks at -120 odds). Despite his problematic control this season, which includes a 24% walk rate through 33 batters, Glasnow dominated last year with MLB-best numbers on two-strike scenarios (59% strikeout rate). This elite strikeout proficiency supports confidence in Glasnow surpassing his prop line against the Cubs.

BetMGM Betting highlights Nico Hoerner as a particularly favorable prop betting option for hits, citing that he's gone over his hits prop in 18 out of his last 25 away games, yielding a +9.45 unit profit and a notable 19% ROI. With this significant sample size of road excellence, Hoerner represents a reliable bet to produce at least one hit in the matchup against the Dodgers.

BetMGM Betting suggests Tommy Edman as a strong home run prop bet, backed by his impressive recent home performance. Edman has homered in 5 of his last 9 contests at Dodger Stadium, producing a striking profit of +33.70 units with a robust 374% return on investment. Given these significant home splits, Edman is a valuable player prop candidate for bettors targeting high upside payouts.