Bender is laying the 5.5 with Kansas City but warned that the nonexistent ground game—Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have only 47 rushing yards apiece—makes a late Giants cover possible. Still, he trusts Patrick Mahomes to exploit a New York secondary that just allowed 506 yards to Dallas, while Russell Wilson’s 450-yard Week-2 eruption feels less repeatable. Projected final: 31-24 Chiefs, a narrow ATS hit.

Even if Brock Purdy (toe) sits, Bender trusts San Francisco as a one-point home dog. He reminded readers that Mac Jones stepped in with 279 yards and three TDs last week and expects another heavy Christian McCaffrey workload in a series where eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by one score. Kyle Shanahan is exactly .500 ATS as a home underdog, but Bender believes the defense and CMC tilt this coin-flip 24-20.

Bender backed Los Angeles –2.5, leaning on two trends: Justin Herbert’s reliable production against Denver last season (260.5 yards per game, 3 TDs, 1 INT) and Jim Harbaugh’s 5-1 ATS record as a home favorite with the Chargers. He sees the Bolts’ quick-hitting passing game exploiting a Broncos defense that just surrendered 21 fourth-quarter points at Indy. Predicted score: 21-18 Chargers.

Bender laid the six with Washington, noting the rest advantage (extra prep after Thursday night) and the team’s stellar 7-2 ATS record as a home favorite since Jayden Daniels took over. He expects a "bounce-back" passing line from Daniels while Geno Smith’s Raiders fly east on a short week. His projection of 28-21 threads the needle but still cashes a Commanders ticket.

Bender prefers Baltimore –6 but warned it could be a sweat. He highlighted an electric offensive environment—Baltimore leads the league at 40.5 PPG while Detroit checks in third at 32.5—and John Harbaugh’s sparkling 15-7 record on Monday Night Football, including five straight wins with Lamar Jackson. Detroit’s 4-of-5 success rate on fourth-down gambles keeps things close, yet the Ravens’ 6-3-1 ATS mark as a home favorite since last season tilts the scales. Final: 34-31 Ravens.

Calling the +1.5 line too skinny, Bender leaned into Houston’s recent dominance of this matchup—three wins in the last four, two decided by four points or fewer. He cited C.J. Stroud’s pristine career numbers versus Jacksonville (7 TDs, 0 INTs, 110.1 rating) and expects that efficiency to continue against a secondary that has already allowed five completions of 30-plus yards. His 22-19 score prediction hands the Texans another outright upset and a cover.

Bender recommended Indianapolis –3 on the road, noting three early-season pillars: Jonathan Taylor’s league-best 236 rushing yards, Daniel Jones’ 71.4% completion rate, and a +4 turnover margin. On the other sideline rookie Cam Ward has already been sacked 11 times, a bad recipe against a Colts front that has won seven of its last eight trips to Tennessee. Bender’s final score call of 21-16 gives Indy a full TD of cushion on the spread.