Bill Harrelson offered Ian Happ UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs as a bonus pick. Happ has fallen short in nine of his last ten and 13 of his last 20 games, including 10 of his last 11 where he averaged only 0.7 H-R-RBI. He is under in three of his last four meetings with the Yankees and, despite receiving 4.4 plate appearances per contest, simply is not producing. Season-long the prop is a near coin flip (48 %), but the recent cold streak plus market agreement—Fliff is shading the under—makes Harrelson comfortable fading the Chicago outfielder regardless of whether he faces a righty or a lefty.

Bill Harrelson called Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs his favorite play of the slate. Bellinger has cleared this mark in 10 straight games (and 16 of his last 20), exploding for 12 H-R-RBI in the series opener and still cashing yesterday when the Yankees scored only two runs. During the 13-game heater he is averaging 4.2 H-R-RBI while logging 4.4 plate appearances a night. Season-long he owns a .285 average over 368 trips to the dish, but that rockets to .386 versus left-handed pitching—the split he’ll see today against southpaw Imanaga (who nonetheless allows just a .201 opponent AVG). With sportsbooks like Fliff and Hard Rock juicing the over, Harrelson is content to keep riding the scorching bat.

Bill Harrelson recommended Elias Diaz UNDER 0.5 total bases. Diaz is 0-for-his-last-nine games at the plate and has failed to record a base knock in 16 of his last 20 (80 %). Limited volume helps—he usually sees only 2–3 plate appearances. Against the Phillies he has gone hitless in five straight and in five of his last eight overall. For the season the under is hitting 64 % (45/70). Harrelson highlighted an 0-for-8 career line versus left-hander Cristopher Sanchez and Diaz’s weaker split against southpaws as additional edges. The market agrees: books such as Hard Rock have the under heavily shaded, giving bettors another reason to fade the Rockies catcher.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Chase Meidroth for LESS than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. He noted Meidroth has stayed below this line in five straight games, 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 despite averaging 4.4 plate appearances. Versus the Guardians he has produced exactly one combined H-R-RBI in three consecutive meetings. Even on the full 2025 season the under is cashing 54 % of the time, but the real sell signal is his post-June 10 swoon: the rookie is averaging just 0.4 H-R-RBI in his most recent five home games. Every major book, including Hard Rock, has the under juiced, so Harrelson is comfortable fading the slumping bat once again.

Harrelson’s final play was Tyler Stephenson under 0.5 runs scored. Stephenson has failed to cross the plate in eight of his last ten outings and in six straight overall. Season-long, he has stayed under this line in 34 of 53 games (64%) and 70% of his last 20. The catcher is particularly quiet at Great American Ball Park, staying scoreless in seven consecutive home games. He draws a right-handed starter who actually owns better numbers versus right-handed batters (allowing a .333 average vs righties compared to .380 overall), and Stephenson himself hits worse against right-handed pitching. Harrelson expects roughly 3.5 plate appearances but believes Cincinnati’s matchup and Stephenson’s splits keep him off the scoreboard.

Harrelson advised playing Yandy Diaz under 1.5 total bases. Diaz has stayed below this number in five straight games and seven of his last ten, logging only singles while averaging 4.4 plate appearances in that span. Historically he struggles in the matchup: 14 unders in his last 20 meetings with Boston. On the season he has failed to clear 1.5 bases in 51 of 89 games (57%). Diaz’s splits versus left-handed pitching are a major concern—his batting average drops from .287 overall to .225 against southpaws, the opposite of Bellinger’s profile. Tonight he faces a lefty he is 0-for-1 against career-wise, and he has also gone under in five straight road games, averaging just 0.8 total bases on the road during that streak.

As a bonus play, Harrelson likes Edward Cabrera UNDER 2.5 earned runs. The right-hander has stayed below this number in 9 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20 starts (75%). He has cashed the prop in 11 of 15 appearances this season (73%) and grades out roughly in the 65th percentile across key pitching metrics. The Orioles’ offense ranks slightly below league average against righties, giving Cabrera a workable matchup. While Cabrera did allow three runs in his lone 2024 meeting with Baltimore, the wider trend supports the under, making it a strong alternative for viewers uneasy about fading Acuna.

Harrelson is UNDER 1.5 total bases on Ronald Acuna Jr. despite the MVP talent. Acuna has stayed below this mark in 9 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 outings, hitting it only 54% of the time in 41 games this season. The matchup is poor: he is 0-for-3 lifetime off Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore and owns a drastic platoon split, batting .207 versus left-handed pitching compared to .336 overall. With sportsbooks largely in agreement and recent form cold, Harrelson is willing to fade the superstar for one night.

Harrelson recommended the OVER on 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs for CJ Abrams, noting the shortstop has obliterated this line: 8-of-10 and 16-of-20 recent games, plus 50-of-80 overall this season (63%). Against Milwaukee he has cashed 5 of the last 6 meetings. His average of 4.5 plate appearances per game provides volume, and he has produced 2.7 HRR per contest over his last 19. Market pricing is supportive—DraftKings and Fliff both list the OVER at –125 while Sleeper is –135—so Harrelson expects Abrams to stay hot in a friendly matchup with Brewers pitching.

Bill Harrelson backed Colt Keith to go OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Seattle. He pointed out that Keith has cleared this number in 8 of his past 10 and 13 of his past 20 games, including monster 6-HRR performances in two recent meetings with Tampa Bay. Keith is finally heating up after a frigid April, hitting the prop in 9 of his last 11 while averaging 2.8 HRR. Harrelson expects roughly four plate appearances (3.8 per game on the season, five last game) and likes the matchup with right-hander Luis Castillo: Keith owns a .290 average vs righties this year (up from .271 overall) and is 6-for-24 (.250) lifetime off Castillo. Books agree—DraftKings lists the OVER at –140—so Harrelson is willing to ride the hot rookie in a plus split.

Bill Harrelson is also fading Jhonkensy Noel, playing less than 0.5 total bases in the same Guardians-White Sox matchup. Noel has logged the under in eight of his last ten and sixteen of his last twenty games. For the season he is 31-for-45 (69%) to the under, averaging only 2.5 plate appearances per outing. He has failed to record a base hit in six of his last seven road starts and owns a career .200 average versus Thursday’s opposing starter. Given the limited volume and persistent struggles, Harrelson said the half-base under remains one of the strongest value plays on his card.

Bill Harrelson advised playing Miguel Vargas under 1.5 hits-plus-runs-plus-RBIs against Cleveland. Vargas has stayed below this number in eight of his past ten and fourteen of his past twenty games. Over the 2025 season he has failed in 52 of 89 contests (58%). Only PrizePicks and Underdog are leaving the line up, suggesting the broader betting market already prices the under. Despite averaging 4.1 plate appearances nightly, Vargas has produced just 0.6 combined HRR across his last 14 starts and is slashing .210 versus left-handed pitching compared to .219 overall. He has stayed under in four of the last five head-to-heads with the Guardians, giving Harrelson confidence to fade him again.

Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jarren Duran for more than 1.5 total bases on Thursday in Tampa Bay. Duran has cleared this line in five of his last six contests, averaging 3.3 total bases, and just posted 5- and 6-base games at Coors. Against the Rays he has gone over in four of the last five meetings, torching them twice this season for four-base nights. FanDuel is hanging the over at –135, a price Harrelson called "insanity" and a clear indicator books expect another big night. Duran owns a .364 average with multiple extra-base hits in 12 plate appearances versus Taj Bradley, and his slash line jumps from .259 overall to .285 against right-handers. With about four projected plate appearances in the leadoff spot and every major book shaded to the over, Harrelson labeled the play one of his favorite PrizePicks cards of the day.

Bill Harrelson wants to keep fading Marcell Ozuna with UNDER 7.5 fantasy points on Underdog. Ozuna has fallen short of this total in nine of his last ten games and 15 of his last 20, collecting a hit in only half of those contests. While he torched Oakland over a year ago, Harrelson dismissed that data point because it was "13 months ago" and emphasized that the 2025 version of Ozuna is ice-cold despite clearing the number in 60% of his 85 games overall. The recent slump—combined with Underdog being the lone book hanging a fantasy-score line—creates what Harrelson views as a mis-priced opportunity to bet against the Braves slugger staying hot.

Bill Harrelson recommended OVER 1.5 total bases for Brandon Nimmo, highlighting a torrid stretch in which Nimmo has cleared the mark in seven of his last ten and racked up 3, 5, 2, 4 and 5 bases in five of his past six games. Although his season-long hit rate on this line is only 41%, Harrelson stressed that Nimmo is locked-in on the road—averaging 2.9 total bases and cashing 7 of his last 8 away from Citi Field. He also draws a right-handed starter, and Nimmo’s .258 average in 252 plate appearances versus righties slightly edges his overall .255 clip. Harrelson added that Nimmo has topped the prop in two of the last three head-to-head meetings with Baltimore, including three total bases yesterday, and the betting market is heavily juicing the over.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Tyler O'Neill UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Underdog. Harrelson noted O'Neill has stayed below this line in 18 of 26 games this season (69% under) and managed the over only eight times. The left-handed matchup is the key: O'Neill owns a disastrous .115 batting average versus southpaws this year compared to .193 overall, and he faces Mets lefty David Peterson, against whom he has just one hit in three career plate appearances. O'Neill averages roughly four plate appearances per game, but Harrelson pointed out that in his last three meetings with New York he produced exactly one hit/run/RBI each time, never clearing the line. With Underdog the only book hanging this prop, Harrelson likes the value on the fade.

Bill Harrelson wants to keep fading Kyle Tucker, taking less than 1.5 total bases in the Cubs-Twins matchup. Tucker has been held below this number in six straight and eight of his last ten, averaging only 0.7 bases per game during that stretch. For the 2025 season he has failed to reach two bases in 46 of 89 contests. Caesars, Sleeper, Flip, and other shops are juicing the under, which Harrelson views as confirmation that smart money expects Tucker’s cold spell to persist. Even with an expected 4.3 plate appearances, Harrelson thinks the matchup and recent form point to another quiet night at the dish.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Jac Caglione lower than 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs. The rookie is mired in a deep slump, staying under in nine of his last ten and 18 of his last 20 games. For the 2025 season he has failed to clear the line in 24 of 30 outings (80%) despite averaging four plate appearances. Caglione recently went 0-for-4 with no counting stats versus the Pirates and is batting just .129 against right-handed pitching compared to a .148 overall average. Underdog is the only book offering the prop, which Harrelson interprets as the market leaning to the under.

Bill Harrelson said to play Cody Bellinger higher than 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs on Tuesday. Bellinger has smashed this number in eight straight and in nine of his past ten while seeing roughly 4.5 plate appearances per game. Although his season-long hit rate is only 49%, Harrelson wants to ride the heater. He pointed out the matchup with right-hander Logan Gilbert, who is allowing a .231 average to lefties versus .198 overall. Bellinger is 1-for-2 with an RBI in three career plate appearances against Gilbert. DraftKings is hanging the same prop at pick’em, so Harrelson views the PrizePicks line as fair value and expects the hot streak to continue.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Sean Burke for fewer than 2.5 earned runs against Toronto. Burke has allowed two or fewer in 8 of his past 10 outings and 9 of 14 overall this season (64%). Dating back to three big-league starts in 2024 he has never surrendered more than the line. The right-hander averages 5.1 innings per start and has been lights-out at Guaranteed Rate Field, giving up just 0.8 earned runs on average while hitting the prop in six straight home games. Harrelson notes only blow-ups versus the Cubs and Astros have spoiled his card, calling the under a consensus play across competing books.

Bill Harrelson said bettors should take Bobby Witt Jr. for more than 1.5 total bases against the Pirates. Witt has cashed this number in 7 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20, averaging 4.5 plate appearances and 1.5 hits per game during the stretch. Overall in 2025 he is hitting the line at a 55% clip. The key angle is Witt’s dominance versus left-handers: he owns a .343 average in 75 plate appearances against southpaws compared to .293 overall, and he is 5-for-10 lifetime off today’s starter Andrew Heaney. Harrelson called those splits “diabolical” and expects at least one extra-base knock with Kansas City’s offense rolling.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Christian Vazquez under 0.5 total bases versus Tampa Bay. Vazquez has come up empty in six straight games and has gone under in nine of his last ten and 13 of his last 20 (65 %). On the season he is 25-for-44 (57 %) to the under, a notable dip from last year’s 49 %. Although Vazquez owns a better split against right-handed pitching, Harrelson pointed out that Rays starter Drew Rasmussen is actually more effective against righties, neutralizing any platoon edge. Vazquez’s track record against Tampa (4-for-6 unders, 67 %) and his current cold streak led Harrelson to expect another goose egg at the plate.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Jake Bauers for fewer than 0.5 total bases against Miami. Bauers has failed to reach base in eight straight games and has stayed under this line in 16 of his last 20 (9-of-10 most recent). Season-long, he is 34-for-52 (65 %) on the under. Harrelson noted Bauers’ struggles versus right-handed pitching (.202 AVG vs RHP) and pointed out that Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera is even tougher on lefty bats (.218 opponent AVG vs LHB). Even when Bauers sees four or five plate appearances—as he did twice last week—he has still produced nothing, reinforcing Harrelson’s confidence in the under play.

Bill Harrelson said Trevor Story is a strong play for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs tonight against Washington. Story has cleared this number in seven straight outings and in eight of his last ten overall, including an 11-H/R/RBI explosion in Game 1 of the series and two more in Game 2. Harrelson highlighted that Story is seeing roughly four plate appearances per game and now faces a left-handed starter, a split where Story is batting .272 in 85 PA compared to his .252 season average. Even though Story’s full-season hit rate on this prop is only 49 %, Harrelson wants to keep riding the ‘generational heater’ (14-for-20, 70 % recent hit rate) while the matchup and platoon advantage remain intact.

Bill Harrelson is fading Marcell Ozuna, playing the under 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs for Saturday’s matchup with Baltimore. Ozuna has stayed under this number in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 games, including 13 of the last 16 overall. Over his past five home games he is averaging just 0.2 H+R+RBI. Harrelson noted Ozuna’s 0-for-2 career line against Saturday’s starter Dean Kremer and emphasized that Kremer has been tougher on right-handed hitters this season. While Underdog is the only book offering the prop, the recent cold streak, minimal success against Kremer, and pitcher split led Harrelson to back the under.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Colton Cowser to collect at least one total base Saturday against Atlanta. Cowser has hit this number in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 games, logging multi-base outings of 4, 4, and 6 during that stretch. He is 20-for-29 (69%) on the prop this season after a 58% hit rate across 151 games last year. Harrelson highlighted that the rookie is averaging 4.2 plate appearances and 2.2 total bases over his last 15 contests. Although Cowser’s split versus left-handed pitching is weaker, he faces a pitcher whose numbers are actually worse against lefty bats, creating a net advantage. Market signals back the play—ESPN Bet, Fliff, and Sleeper are heavily juicing the over while Underdog is the lone book hanging a line. Given the combination of recent form, volume, and pitcher matchup, Harrelson is confident Cowser will surpass 0.5 total bases.

Bill Harrelson said he is backing Trevor Story to go over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs on Saturday against the Nationals. Story is scorching, clearing this line in six straight and 8 of his last 10 games, highlighted by yesterday’s 4-hit, 3-run, 4-RBI explosion. Over that six-game heater he is averaging five H+R+RBI and has cashed 13 of his last 20 (65%). Books are leaning the same direction—DraftKings lists the over at –135, Hard Rock at –130, while Fliff and Sleeper are shaded to the over. Harrelson also noted a favorable platoon split: Story is batting .263 in 84 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching compared to .244 in 344 PA overall. Riding the hot hand, the advantageous split, and supportive market odds, Harrelson expects Story to eclipse 1.5 H+R+RBI again.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Michael Toglia under 0.5 runs scored in the White Sox–Rockies night game. Underdog Fantasy is the only major book still hanging the prop because Toglia has failed to cross the plate in 10 straight contests and in 18 of his last 20 (90%). He also went scoreless in both previous meetings with Chicago. On the 2025 season he has stayed under in 53 of 68 games (78%), and when you blend in last year’s 115-game sample he is roughly a 70% hit to the under across 180 games. Harrelson pointed out that Toglia is slashing just .185 versus right-handed pitching (185 PA) and typically gets four trips to the box per game, giving him limited chances to score. With the market implying better than a coin-flip and the historical trend overwhelmingly on the under, Harrelson is happy to fade the run column once again.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking less than 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs on Ty France in the July 4 Twins-Rays matchup. France has stayed under this line in 9 of his last 10 games—including six straight—and 14 of his last 20 (70%). On the season he is clearing the number only 49% of the time and currently averages a mere 0.3 H/R/RBI in his past six contests. Although France has a modest 2-for-9 lifetime line (one homer) against scheduled starter Zack Littell, Harrelson noted that major books such as FanDuel and DraftKings are shaded to the under as well. With France projected for roughly 3.5 plate appearances and struggling mightily at the dish, Harrelson expects the cold spell to continue.

Bill Harrelson said CJ Abrams is an easy click for more than 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs on July 4. Abrams has cashed this line in 9 of his past 10 and 16 of his past 20 outings, failing to record a single base knock only once during that stretch. He has cleared in back-to-back meetings with Boston (two hits each time) and is 46-for-74 overall this season (62%) on the prop. The leadoff man is seeing a ridiculous 4.8 plate appearances per game, which drives opportunity, and he has smacked the number in five of his last six at Nationals Park while averaging 2.5 H/R/RBI in those home games. Harrelson added that Abrams owns a .287 average on the year and a .284 clip versus right-handed pitching, giving no reason to expect regression. With the bat blazing and the volume of at-bats locked in, Harrelson wants to keep riding the over.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Zach Neto for less than 1.5 total bases. Every major book is leaning that way—DraftKings (-125), Bet365, Caesars, Fliff and Sleeper all list the under as the favored side—yet Underdog is still hanging an even-money line. Neto has stayed below 1.5 bases in 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20 games (60%). Since May 27 he has been ice-cold, often logging just a single base and averaging only 3.2 plate appearances. In three career meetings with the Braves he failed to clear the number twice (67%). Harrelson trusts the market’s read and expects Neto’s slump, limited volume and merely average matchup to keep him under once again.

Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jo Adell for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Atlanta. Harrelson highlighted that Adell has cashed this prop in 8 of his last 10 outings and 5 of his last 6, averaging 3.5 HRR in that span with individual game lines of 5-5-3-4 across the most recent four. Adell is getting 4.4 plate appearances per contest and owns a .246 average versus right-handed pitching, slightly better than his .243 overall mark. The matchup is what really sold Harrelson: Braves right-hander Fuentes is surrendering a .378 batting average overall and an eye-popping .400 to right-handed hitters. With both the hitter and the matchup red-hot, sportsbooks like DraftKings (-125) and Sleeper (-137) are already juicing the over. Harrelson is happy to follow the numbers and ride Adell’s heater.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus play is Rafael Devers UNDER 1.5 total bases in the Giants-Diamondbacks tilt. Devers has finished below this number in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 (70%), and he’s under in 50 of 85 games on the season (59%). Sportsbooks back the fade—DraftKings, ESPN Bet, and Caesars all price the under as the favorite. Though Devers averages a solid 4.6 PAs, he is 0-for-3 with one walk career versus tonight’s starter (giving him a .333 OBP but zero bases). Harrelson stressed the platoon data: Devers is hitting worse against right-handers this year, while Ryne Nelson is actually tougher on left-handed bats. The confluence of cold form, negative splits, and market support leads Harrelson to project another low-base night for Devers.

Bill Harrelson targeted Ramon Laureano for MORE than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs versus Texas. Laureano is on fire, eclipsing the mark in 7 of his last 10 and each of his last five contests, posting game lines of 3-2-8-4-4 HRR while averaging 4.4 plate appearances. He has two straight overs against the Rangers and is 1-for-3 (.333) lifetime off starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin’s .272 opponent average against right-handed hitters is notably worse than his overall line, giving Laureano the platoon edge. Although Laureano has only hit this prop in 43% of games this year, Harrelson emphasized the current form and favorable matchup. Books are leaning over as well—Fliff, DraftKings, and Sleeper all list it juiced toward the over. With Laureano’s recent surge and Corbin’s struggles versus righties, Harrelson thinks the streak continues.

Bill Harrelson advised backing Jake Mangum OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Oakland. Mangum has cashed this line in 7 of his last 10, 13 of his last 20 (65%), and 5 of his last 6 at Tropicana Field where he’s averaging three combined stats per game. He’s seeing a healthy 4.1-4.5 plate appearances nightly, and season-long he’s cleared in 25 of 48 (52%). The opposing starter owns a .250 opponent average versus right-handed bats—14 points worse than his overall mark—giving Mangum a softer matchup. Market support is strong: DraftKings –130, Fliff –135, and Sleeper –147 all shade the over. With a red-hot bat, steady volume atop Tampa’s order, and a pitcher who struggles with righties, Harrelson expects Mangum to pick up multiple counting stats again.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Tyler Wade for LESS than 0.5 total bases on the Padres-Phillies board. Harrelson pointed out that Wade has stayed under this number in 9 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20 (75%). During that stretch Wade is averaging just 2.2 plate appearances and only 0.2 total bases per game, a product of part-time usage at the bottom of San Diego’s order. Sportsbooks agree with the fade: DraftKings and ESPN Bet have the under priced between –125 and –129 while Underdog lists it as a straight pick. On the season Wade has gone under in 28 of 46 contests (61%). The matchup also favors the under—he owns a .207 AVG versus right-handed pitching, and Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is limiting lefties to a .170 mark. Even though Wade is 1-for-2 lifetime off Wheeler, Harrelson called that sample “basically irrelevant.” All signs point to limited contact and another goose-egg night for Wade.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus play is Brooks Lee over 0.5 total bases. Lee has recorded at least one base in nine of his last ten, 19 of his last twenty, and six of eight matchups with Detroit. Since May 28 he has missed just once, and he’s on a 16-game road streak of cashing this prop. Overall, Lee has eclipsed the line in 46 of 64 games (72%). Although the market is juiced, Harrelson views the consistency and matchup with the Tigers’ middling staff as worth the premium.

Bill Harrelson likes Josh Smith to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Smith has hit this mark in eight of his last ten and in both games of the current series with Seattle, posting 4 and 2 H+R+RBI. He is 15-for-20 (75%) over the last three weeks and 9-for-11 in recent head-to-head meetings with the Mariners. While his season-long rate lags, Harrelson argued that Smith’s current form, 4.6 plate appearances per game, and favorable splits justify the play. Against Luis Castillo he is 3-for-7 (.429) lifetime, and he owns a .288 average versus righties compared to .279 overall. Harrelson expects sportsbooks to open the Over around –125/–130, signaling value before the price moves.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Mark Vientos for less than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Vientos has stayed under in nine of his last ten, 15 of his last 17, and four straight versus Pittsburgh. On the year he is under in 35 of 55 games (64%). He has failed to top the line in six consecutive road games, managing only 0.5 H+R+RBI per outing during that span. Despite a neutral pitching matchup, Harrelson trusts the trend and market signal — DraftKings, Hard Rock, Fliff and Sleeper all list the Under around –125 — as evidence that the books expect another quiet day from the struggling Met.

Bill Harrelson said Brandon Lowe is a strong play for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Sunday in Baltimore. Harrelson pointed out that Lowe has cleared this number in six of his last seven meetings with the Orioles and in four straight overall, posting monster games of 9 and 4 H+R+RBI in his last two. The second baseman is on a 7-for-10 and 15-for-20 tear (75%) and has cashed in 57% of his games on the season (44/77). He has been even better away from Tropicana Field, exceeding the line in eight consecutive road contests while averaging 4.0 H+R+RBI. Versus projected starter Dean Kremer, Lowe owns a .455 AVG and .571 OBP over 14 career plate appearances. Harrelson stressed Lowe’s .300 average against right-handed pitching vs his overall .273 mark, and noted that Kremer is surrendering a .300 average to left-handed bats. Books such as DraftKings have the Over at –145, reinforcing the play.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus play was Jose Quintana under 2.5 earned runs allowed. Quintana has held opponents to two or fewer earned in 8 of 10 starts this season and 16 of his last 20 overall (80%). He blanked Minnesota in his most recent start and is averaging 5.1 innings per outing, limiting opportunities for damage. The veteran southpaw now faces the Colorado Rockies, a lineup ranking bottom-three in batting average and on-base percentage and bottom-10 in slugging. DraftKings is juicing the under at –130, confirming market faith. Quintana was under this number in 59% of his 34 starts a year ago, so the recent trend is backed by a larger sample. Harrelson combined long-term consistency, opponent ineptitude and book liability to justify the play.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Freddie Freeman under 1.5 total bases. Freeman owns just two total bases over his last five games and has failed to reach two bases in 9 of his past 10 and 17 of his past 20 (85% under clip). On the full season he is under 56% of the time and was at 54% last year, so the recent drought is an acceleration of a longer-term trend. The matchup exacerbates things: Freeman’s average climbs from .262 versus left-handed pitching compared to .310 overall, and he draws Kansas City left-hander Nick Cameron, whose opponents are hitting .182 overall and a microscopic .154 when batting left-handed (54 lefty plate appearances). Books are leaning the same way—DraftKings –145, No-Vig equivalent –134, Caesars –130—all shading the under. Harrelson summed it up: massive cold streak, negative handedness split, elite opposing pitcher versus lefties, and unanimous sportsbook juice equals a strong fade.

Harrelson also played Junior Caminero over 1.5 total bases. Caminero has topped the number in eight of his last ten games while averaging 2.8 bases over that span. He’s 2-for-3 lifetime against Michael Lorenzen with both hits going for extra bases ( .666 AVG, 1.667 SLG ). The rookie is batting .280 versus right-handers compared to .264 overall, and the same righty-righty weakness in Lorenzen’s splits that benefits Diaz applies here. All six tracked sportsbooks—ESPN Bet, Hard Rock, Caesars, Novig, Fliff and Sleeper—have the over shaded, confirming market support for the play. With an average 4.4 plate appearances per game, Harrelson expects multiple chances for Caminero to cash.

Bill Harrelson backed Jake Mangum to go over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in Tuesday’s matchup, pointing to a red-hot stretch where the Rays outfielder has cleared this combo line in 9 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20. Even in the lone miss during that span—an 8-1 blowout loss to Baltimore—Mangum still recorded a base hit. He is averaging 4.4 plate appearances per game, giving him plenty of chances at the dish. DraftKings and Sleeper both list the over as the favored side, reinforcing Harrelson’s confidence that Mangum’s recent surge will continue.

Bill Harrelson advised betting MacKenzie Gore over 5.5 strikeouts. Gore has topped this line in 9 of his last 10 appearances and 16 of his last 20 overall. In 13 of 15 starts this season he has recorded at least six punch-outs; the two misses landed on exactly five. Earlier this year he rang up seven Ks against these same Dodgers. Harrelson highlighted Gore’s 99th-percentile strike-percentage and expects a bounce-back after a relatively modest five-K outing versus Miami. Sportsbooks agree: FanDuel, Novig, and Caesars are all pricing the over as the favorite. Given Gore’s elite swing-and-miss metrics, consistent workload, and supportive market signals, Harrelson sees 6-plus strikeouts as the most likely outcome.

Bill Harrelson recommended Jose Herrera under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. Herrera has stayed under in 23 of 30 games this season (77%) and nine straight overall while producing just 0.4 H+R+RBI on average during that stretch. DraftKings and Sleeper have already juiced the under into the –130 range, a signal Harrelson trusts because those books can shade prices unlike PrizePicks/Underdog’s fixed payouts. Herrera is only 1-for-4 lifetime off Austin Gomber, and although the catcher’s splits vs lefties (.381) look scary, Gomber has limited right-handed hitters to an absurd .077 average this year (18 batters faced). Herrera has also gone under in two consecutive meetings with the Rockies. All the recent trends, matchup data, and market movement point toward another quiet night at the plate.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus pick was Sonny Gray UNDER 6.5 strikeouts. Gray has failed to reach seven punch-outs in seven of his last ten outings and 12 of his last twenty. On the 2025 season he is 10-for-14 (71%) to the under while averaging only 5.2 innings per start. The right-hander has stayed under this line in four of his last five road games, and the matchup comes in Chicago against a White Sox lineup that strikes out less versus righties than league average. Caesars, ESPN Bet, ProfitX, Novig, and Sleeper all price the under as a significant favorite, indicating a strong market lean. Because Harrelson expects the prop to be pulled off some boards, he labeled it a bonus play but still sees clear value in fading Gray’s strikeout ceiling tonight.

Bill Harrelson went back to the well with Addison Barger OVER 0.5 total bases. Despite burning bettors two nights ago, Barger has cleared this low bar in seven of his last ten and 14 of his last twenty games. Across his last sixteen contests he is averaging a robust 2.5 total bases per game. Season-long, he has reached at least one total base in 27 of 49 appearances (55%) while seeing his plate appearances tick up to roughly four per game in recent weeks. Books are leaning over; DraftKings and ESPN Bet list the over at –125 with consensus agreement across the rest of the market. Harrelson called the single-base threshold “insanity” given Barger's recent power surge and extra plate appearances, making him a high-percentage play to record a hit against the Diamondbacks.

Bill Harrelson recommended OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs for Brandon Lowe. Lowe has cashed this number in eight of his last ten games, including six straight, and 15 of his last 20 overall (56% on the year, 38-for-68). At Tropicana Field he has been even better, topping 1.5 in 12 of his last 15 home games while averaging 3.2 combined HRRBI. He is locked into the middle of Tampa’s lineup and averages 4.1 plate appearances per game. Only PrizePicks and Underdog are still hanging 1.5, giving an edge before the market potentially bumps him to 2.0. Harrelson likes the matchup with Baltimore’s right-handed starter and notes Lowe has hit this prop in each of the last three meetings with the Orioles. Given the volume, form, and limited market availability, Harrelson expects the hot streak to continue.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Bo Bichette UNDER 1.5 total bases. Harrelson pointed out that Bichette has cleared this number just twice in his last ten games and only nine times in his last twenty, despite logging 4–5 plate appearances each night. He has reached base in only six of those ten contests, and four of those trips were singles. Harrelson added that Bichette’s 2025 hit-rate on this prop sits at 54%, down from 63% last year, and he struggles slightly more versus left-handed pitching. Arizona is sending southpaw Rodriguez, who owns better splits against right-handed bats this season. Underdog Fantasy is hanging a –120 juice to the over while DraftKings, Bet365, ESPN Bet, Novig, and Sleeper all price the UNDER as the favorite, giving bettors meaningful line value. With the market firmly leaning under and Bichette mired in a cold streak, Harrelson expects another quiet night at the plate.

Bill Harrelson offered Yusei Kikuchi under 2.5 earned runs as a filler pick. The Toronto lefty has stayed below this line in 8 of his last 10 starts and 9 of 14 overall this season, including 9 of his last 11 once he shook off a slow April. He has cashed the under in two of his last three meetings with Baltimore and is allowing just 1.2 earned runs per game over his last eight outings. Books are shading the under, reinforcing Harrelson’s angle. With the Orioles posting only a .301 wOBA versus southpaws during that span, Harrelson expects another quality start from Kikuchi.