Billy Ward agreed with Sean Zerillo in evaluating Michal Oleksiejczuk as a strong betting option inside the distance against Sedriques Dumas at UFC 314. Ward described Dumas skeptically as taller but not particularly skilled or notably athletic, emphasizing he's perceived wrongly just because he's wild. Given these significant concerns regarding Dumas' technical ability and overall cardio, Ward strongly favors betting on the fight finishing inside the distance in Michal Oleksiejczuk's favor rather than the fight lasting the full three rounds. Ward recommended betting on Oleksiejczuk via KO or inside the distance as optimal plays.

Billy Ward emphatically recommended betting Nora Cornolle against Hailey Cowan, surprised by the affordability of the line around -170. Ward confidently projected Cornolle closer to a -350 favorite, identifying her as vastly more skilled due to elite Muay Thai credentials and improving grappling. Ward criticized Cowan's limited MMA skillset, acknowledging her physical strength and athleticism but seeing these traits insufficient at higher levels. Ward also highlighted Cornolle's tendency to miss weight as potentially beneficial, assuming it indicates strength or size advantage. Ward underscored repeatedly trying to unsuccessfully bet against Cowan previously, enthusiastically identifying Cornolle as one of his strongest bets this week.

Billy Ward strongly recommended betting Patricio Freire's finish-only prop at plus 110 versus Yair Rodriguez at UFC 314. Ward explained that Freire possesses significantly more raw power and fight-ending capability compared to Yair, who relies on flashy techniques rather than consistent finishing power. Ward emphasized his preference for splitting bets between the standard moneyline and finish-only lines because Rodriguez's unpredictable, flashy striking could impress judges disproportionately during a decision, despite Pitbull likely having the bigger moments and power advantage. Therefore, the finish-only angle neatly covers the scenario where Pitbull clearly dominates but gets robbed on the scorecards due to questionable judging.

Billy Ward strongly advocated betting Chase Hooper by KO at +600 against Jim Miller at UFC 314. Ward argued strongly for Hooper's greatly improved ground-and-pound skills, noting Miller's renowned submission defense as unlikely to falter. Rather than fruitlessly pursuing submissions, Ward expects Hooper to use his dominant positional control to land heavy strikes and elbows, earning a stoppage via strikes. While Miller rarely makes grappling mistakes, Hooper's evolving aggression and ground striking make KO his most realistic finishing scenario. At long odds of +600, Ward rated the KO method significantly underpriced, calling it the best betting angle of the fight.

Billy Ward outlined strong concerns regarding Su Mudaerji's chances against Mitch Raposo at UFC 314, citing Su's abysmal UFC track record once opponents secure even a single takedown. Ward noted a key statistic: Su is 0-4 in fights where he's been taken down just once, underscoring severe concerns regarding grappling defense and submission vulnerability. Raposo's credentials as a former state champion wrestler with black belt-level BJJ present an immediate threat. Ward expressed worry over an early knockout threat from Su striking power, but strongly recommended betting Raposo at plus 170 for anyone who secured that earlier price, or alternatively, shifting towards Raposo by decision at current lines.

Billy Ward provided strategic insight into Dan Ige's potential paths to victory against Sean Woodson at UFC 314. While recognizing Woodson's substantial height and reach advantage causing challenges at range, Ward emphasized Ige's superior body punching skills, notably effective against Woodson's tall, lanky frame prone to body attacks. Ward also pointed out Ige holds a dominant wrestling advantage, emphasizing that aggressively grappling and taking Woodson to the ground completely neutralizes his height advantage. Ward is confident in backing the Ige moneyline at plus 150, identifying a clear roadmap to victory through targeted body punching and control-based grappling.

Billy Ward further strengthened his conviction on betting Patricio Freire at UFC 314 by detailing Yair Rodriguez's tendency to make irresponsible decisions on the ground. Ward explained that Rodriguez often sacrifices position seeking flashy and low-percentage submission attempts such as quick triangles, rather than escaping bad positions and regaining control. Against Pitbull, a smart fighter known for his grappling edge and methodical positional control, these inferior decisions could leave Rodriguez trapped beneath Pitbull, taking prolonged punishment. Ward views this critical grappling exploitation as another reason Pitbull offers exceptional value at underdog prices.

Billy Ward highlighted Patricio Freire's calf kicking as a significant factor in his matchup against Yair Rodriguez at UFC 314. Ward described Pitbull as one of the earliest adopters of powerful calf kicks, which will be particularly dangerous against Rodriguez's style of consistently bouncing between legs. Ward believes Pitbull will successfully exploit moments when Yair shifts weight onto one leg, severely compromising his mobility and neutralizing his flashy spinning attacks. Despite Pitbull's usual approach allowing opponents some space, Ward sees the leg-kick game as a direct stylistic trump card against Rodriguez's kicking-heavy taekwondo approach.

Billy Ward liked Diego Lopez as an early-fight bet against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 314. Ward emphasized Lopez's early finishing upside through aggressive striking, highlighting Volkanovski's recent chin durability concerns at age 36 following consecutive knockout defeats and a 14-month layoff. Lopez, younger and powerful in the early rounds, offers a strong pathway to victory via early KO. However, Ward cautioned to fade Lopez if the fight progresses past round two, given his notable cardio issues particularly shown in late rounds versus Brian Ortega and Dan Ige. Ward plans to profitably hedge by live betting Volkanovski at plus-money odds after the first or second rounds, ensuring gains regardless of outcome.

Billy Ward discussed the unconventional potential for Paddy Pimblett securing a knockout via ground and pound at UFC 314 due to Chandler's questionable chin. Ward called attention to Chandler's repeatedly exposed durability, notably being knocked down by Tony Ferguson and other recent opponents. Despite Pimblett lacking notable standing knockout power, Ward emphasized Paddy's MMA-adapted jiu-jitsu style effectively sets up strong ground control, from which he could land damaging strikes leading to a stoppage win. Ward clarified he wouldn't anticipate a standing knockout, seeing Pimblett's striking-based finish more realistically materializing through sustained ground and pound.

Billy Ward expressed preliminary interest in betting Paddy Pimblett via submission at +250 odds in the UFC 314 co-main event against Michael Chandler. Ward acknowledged Chandler's technical wrestling advantage while highlighting Chandler's habit of making critical mistakes during ground encounters. Ward remained tentative about how the fight transitions to the ground, noting Pimblett's creative submission entries standing or off wild scrambles could provide a pathway. Though uncertain, Ward identified this method of victory as one of the two likeliest fight-ending scenarios.

Billy Ward sees justified value betting Marco Tulio Silva against Tresean Gore at UFC 314, despite steep odds around -400. Ward criticizes Gore, observing that his only UFC victories came purely from securing 'dumb guillotines', which are easily avoidable by well-prepared fighters. He also negatively highlights Gore's knockout loss against wrestling-focused Cody Brundage, significantly undermining Gore's credibility and durability. Ward advises capitalizing on a Marco Tulio knockout prop at improved odds (approximately +115), recommending to roll previous winnings into this KO prop after winning earlier bets like the Cornolle fight.

Billy Ward strongly agrees with Sean Zerillo about betting on Virna Jandiroba at UFC 314 against Yan Xiaonan, signaling intent to bet as the moneyline softens toward -142. Ward further cited the intangible benefit of the event location in Miami favoring Jandiroba, noting Yan Xiaonan's significant travel from Asia as potentially impacting her negatively due to itinerary strain and disrupted body clock. Ward suggested waiting slightly longer for optimal pricing due to anticipated late Asian market money possibly further improving Jandiroba's odds. The combination of stylistic advantages, grappling superiority, and logistical edge makes this bet excellent value in Ward’s analysis.

Billy Ward recommends betting on the Mets scoring in the first inning (YRFI), targeting JP Sears due to his notably poor performances early in games. Ward emphasized Sears rates as one of his worst-rated pitchers early and the matchup significantly favors Mets hitters. Interestingly, he highlighted Juan Soto, who typically hits lefties better, offering another possible advantage against Sears, a left-handed pitcher. Ward sees the Mets' YRFI at +165 on DraftKings as particularly appealing and also noted a relatively high 9.5 run total for the game overall, suggesting early scoring is highly likely in this matchup.