Brad’s favorite play of the slate is Astros 1st-5 moneyline at roughly ‑120. Houston is 20-8 in its last 28 home games and, in Brad’s words, "looked damn good yesterday." He trusts Hunter Brown—2.89 ERA and 10.4 K/9 at Minute Maid—to set the tone. Although Joe Ryan counters for Minnesota, Brad noted the Astros’ .349 wOBA against righties at home and a bullpen he wants no part of. Limiting exposure to five innings captures Houston’s starting-pitching edge while avoiding any late-inning variance.

Brad played the Braves team total over 5.5 runs. Atlanta exploded for 12 runs the previous night and, according to Brad, faces an even softer section of the Rockies bullpen today. He pointed out Colorado’s staff owns a league-worst 5.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, while Atlanta’s offense ranks top-three in hard-hit rate. He does not expect back-to-back slow starts, forecasting that the Braves’ depth and platoon advantage against multiple Rockies right-handers push them to at least six runs.

Brad backed the Tigers on the moneyline at roughly ‑160. His case: Detroit has won ten straight interleague games against National League opponents when listed as the favorite, and ace Jack Flaherty gets the start. Brad believes Flaherty’s swing-and-miss stuff will neutralize a Reds lineup that ranks bottom-five in MLB wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Although the price is juiced, he felt the combination of the streak, superior starter, and bullpen edge was worth laying it or pivoting to the run line for plus money.

Brad faded Spencer Strider’s 8.5-strikeout prop, noting the right-hander has stayed under that number in five straight outings despite facing middling lineups. Books have inflated the total because it’s Coors Field against the Rockies, but Brad reminded listeners Colorado tagged Strider for four runs last night and owns merely a 22.3% K-rate at home—middle of the pack rather than atrocious. Given recent form and the altitude effect on breaking balls, Brad is betting that nine punch-outs is too tall an order.