Brad Francis played Holmes under 5.5 strikeouts at Fenway Park. The right-hander has stayed below six punch-outs in four of his last five starts, and Francis doubts he suddenly racks up Ks in a hitter-friendly park against what he called a “decent Boston team.” He is comfortable laying the –145 juice on the prop.

Brad Francis is riding the Reds moneyline again after cashing with them Monday. He labeled the Pirates a “poverty franchise” and one of four MLB teams he plans to fade whenever possible, expecting Cincinnati’s superior roster to prevail once more.

Brad Francis played the Mariners -1.5 against the White Sox. Seattle has covered the run line in six of its last eight games, including every contest in a recent series at San Diego. Francis trusts the Mariners’ road bats and pitching depth to dominate a White Sox club he called “terrible” and overmatched.

Brad Francis is backing Milwaukee on the moneyline for the second straight night, insisting the Orioles are “dog-meat” and a team bettors should oppose until the market adjusts. Monday’s win with the Brewers reinforced his belief that Baltimore’s roster is badly outclassed, so he will keep exploiting what he sees as a clear talent gap.

Brad Francis said he is backing the Twins on the money line again because, as he put it, “I’m going to ride this Twins train until the wheels fall off.” Minnesota enters the day on a 13-game winning streak and faces Milwaukee’s ace Freddy Peralta. Francis acknowledged the danger of Zebby Matthews drawing the start for Minnesota, but believes the current form of the Twins’ lineup outweighs the pitching mismatch. The extended streak plus home-field momentum are his primary angles, so he is content to eat any attached juice and stay on the streaking side.

Brad Francis played the Diamondbacks team total over 5.5 runs. Arizona plated eight runs in Game 1 of the series and 12 in Game 2, and now faces a Colorado bullpen he called “taxed.” With the game in hitter-friendly Chase Field and the D-backs lineup rolling, he expects another crooked number, especially against a Rockies relief corps that owns one of MLB’s worst ERA/FIP splits on short rest.

Brad Francis took Freddy Peralta under 6.5 strikeouts. He admitted his recent pitcher-prop run has cooled but feels Peralta will not reach seven punch-outs against a Minnesota lineup that has been making consistent contact throughout its 13-game winning streak. Francis stressed that the Twins’ current approach—shortening swings and forcing long at-bats—sets up poorly for Peralta’s high-velocity but occasionally erratic arsenal, projecting fewer whiffs than usual.

Brad Francis took Boston on the money line. The Red Sox have won seven straight when favored versus NL East teams, and southpaw Garrett Crochet (1.92 ERA, 35% K-rate) ‘looks like one of the best pitchers in the world.’ On the flip side, Chris Sale’s velocity dip has led to a 4.70 ERA in his last four outings, and Atlanta’s bats own a .285 road wOBA. Those factors push Francis to the Sox.

Francis grabbed Tampa Bay as slight underdogs, citing the Rays’ six-game winning streak in Miami and their 14-8 road record this season. Tampa ranks sixth in MLB in road wRC+, whereas Miami sits 28th overall. With the matchup essentially even on the mound, Francis believes the better lineup and recent dominance in this park make the Rays the value side.

Francis told bettors not to hop off the train, recommending another Twins money-line ticket. Minnesota enters Friday on an 11-game winning streak with a +46 run differential during that span and a bullpen holding opponents to a 0.91 WHIP. Until the market forces him off, Francis is content riding the league’s hottest club.

Brad Francis backed the Tigers on the money line, noting Detroit has cashed 12 straight games when listed as a favorite against AL East opponents. He argued the Tigers are “better everywhere” based on season-long metrics and pointed to a clear pitching edge with Jack Flaherty (29.4% K-rate, 1.06 WHIP) squaring off against Bowden Francis, who rarely works past the fifth inning. Given the matchup and Detroit’s current offensive form coming out of Boston, Francis labeled the Tigers the play.

Francis bet Bowden Francis under 4.5 strikeouts. The right-hander has stayed below that number in three of his last five starts and averages just 73 pitches per outing. Detroit’s offense, fresh off a productive series in Boston, owns the seventh-lowest K-rate versus right-handed pitching (19.4%). With the Tigers making consistent contact and Toronto likely to keep Bowden Francis on a short leash, Brad expects four punch-outs or fewer.

Brad Francis recommended betting the over in Nationals vs Orioles on May 16. He pointed out that both clubs field bottom-five bullpens: Washington’s relievers own a 6.86 ERA (second worst) while Baltimore’s sit at 5.04 (fifth worst). Francis expects neither starter to work deep—Kyle Gibson has already coughed up 12 earned runs in just seven total innings this year and MacKenzie Gore regularly exits after five—meaning those shaky pens should decide the game. He added that each lineup has produced runs consistently in 2025, noting Baltimore’s offense has stayed hot even during a rough series against Minnesota. With terrible relief pitching and two offenses capable of capitalizing, Francis believes “we see a ton of runs” and the contest sails over the posted total.

Brad Francis advised taking the Nationals on the first-five-innings line Friday because he sees a massive starting-pitching edge. Francis, "a MacKenzie Gore fan," expects the young left-hander to keep Baltimore quiet, while Kyle Gibson has been an automatic fade: nine earned runs in three innings versus the Yankees and three earned in four against the Royals give Gibson an ugly 15.43 ERA through two starts. Baltimore’s reliance on aging arms like Gibson underscores its struggles, whereas Gore’s stuff and strikeout upside should put Washington ahead before its unreliable 6.86-ERA bullpen even enters. Francis calls the Nats F5 bet the safer way to exploit the mismatch without worrying about late-inning meltdowns.

Brad Francis advised laying the run line with the Rangers against the Astros on May 16. He framed it as a clear pitching mismatch: Lance McCullers Jr. is fresh off a nightmare appearance in which he recorded just one out while surrendering seven earned runs to the Reds, inflating his season ERA to 15.75 and, in Francis’s view, leaving him "shaken up." Francis said he needs to "see a couple more starts" before backing Houston. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi sports a 1.78 ERA and has allowed only two earned runs across his last three starts (vs Boston, Oakland, and San Francisco). Texas also owns momentum, having swept Colorado and covered the run line in four of its last five. Overall the Rangers are 26-18 ATS on the run line and 16-7 at home. Although he acknowledged Texas’s bats can run hot-and-cold, Francis still made the official play Rangers -1.5, noting a first-five -0.5 could be a secondary option.

Brad Francis took Erick Fedde under 4.5 strikeouts, saying the number feels inflated against a contact-heavy Phillies lineup. He believes Philadelphia’s hitters will force Fedde into pitch-to-contact mode and prevent him from racking up punch-outs, making the under worth a wager.

Francis laid the –1.5 with Cincinnati. The Reds have covered the run line in four of the last five meetings with the White Sox, and he blasted Chicago as “horrible.” Facing a shaky starter (Cannon) plus a bullpen he expects to implode in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, Francis anticipates enough Reds offense for a multi-run victory.

Francis played Cleveland on the money line versus Milwaukee. His reasoning: the Guardians have won six straight against NL Central clubs, rookie left-hander Logan Allen gives them the superior arm, and Milwaukee’s presumed starter (he mis-pronounced Peralta) has been shaky. Add in Cleveland’s solid home record and he felt the Guards should be favored.

Francis grabbed the Twins as underdogs against Baltimore because Minnesota has rattled off eight straight wins and, in his words, is "one of the hottest teams in baseball right now." He labeled the Orioles "absolute garbage" and wants to ride the current form, noting the attractive plus-money price while the streak is alive.

Francis played Michael Soroka under 4.5 strikeouts. Soroka brings a bloated 7.20 ERA into Atlanta, and Francis does not see him surviving long enough against the Braves’ dangerous home lineup to record five punch-outs. The combination of bad form and tough opponent drove the under call.

Brad Francis played the Rays team total under 4.5 at Milwaukee. The wager has cashed in six of the last seven Rays-Brewers clashes, and spot starter Chad Patrick has been surprisingly steady for Milwaukee. Francis doesn’t trust Tampa Bay’s streaky offense—especially away from the Trop—and expects another muted scoring output on the road.

Brad Francis called the Diamondbacks’ team total over 4.5 his favorite play of the day. Arizona had cleared its number in 11 straight meetings with the Dodgers prior to Saturday’s hiccup, and Francis expects a quick reversion. Tony Gonsolin has faced only Miami this season and was roughed up in his last start; now he must pitch in hitter-friendly Chase Field against a deeper lineup. Francis anticipates a high-scoring game on both sides but feels safest banking on the D-backs to reach five runs again.

Brad Francis recommended the No-Run First Inning in Royals-Red Sox. The Royals have cashed five straight NRFIs against AL-East foes, and Seth Lugo’s sub-3.00 ERA gives Kansas City a trustworthy first-frame arm. Although Francis admitted slight concern with Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito’s volatility, he still trusts both pitchers to put up a clean opening inning at Fenway and keep the streak alive.

Brad Francis said to grab the Tigers on the money-line against Texas. His case hinged on three angles: 1) the Rangers have dropped seven straight when priced as underdogs, signaling the market still overrates them; 2) Reese Olson has quietly held opponents in check and matches Jon Gray pitch-for-pitch, giving Detroit no mound disadvantage; 3) Detroit has been a 'juggernaut at home' with a noticeably better record than Texas. Francis expects the Tigers to bounce back from Saturday’s loss and extend his personal winning streak to eight days.

Brad Francis returned to the well with the Red Sox money line after Friday’s extra-inning loss, citing Garrett Crochet—"one of the best pitchers on this planet"—as the difference maker. He added that Boston has won four straight as a favorite against Kansas City and believes Royals ace Cole Regans is already showing regression this season. The betting tools at SportsChatPlace flagged value on Boston as well, and Francis expects the Sox to capitalize on the pitching edge and bounce back immediately.

Brad Francis recommended betting Brady Singer under 5.5 strikeouts. He noted Singer has stayed below this number in three of his last five outings and now draws a contact-heavy Houston lineup that rarely whiffs. With the Astros ranking among the toughest teams to strike out and Singer’s recent K dip, the SportsChatPlace betting tools triggered an under play that Francis agreed with.

Brad Francis advised taking the Cardinals on the money line, pointing out that St. Louis has quietly rattled off six straight wins. He conceded Washington’s starters and lineup are respectable but hammered the Nationals’ bullpen as "the worst bullpen in the MLB," projecting the game to stay close through five before the relief mismatch blows it open. With the bullpen edge and sustained team momentum, Francis labeled the Cards a strong bet according to SportsChatPlace’s betting tools.

Brad Francis backed the White Sox on the money line because Miami has completely fallen apart away from home, dropping six straight road games. Francis added that Chicago hands the ball to Shane Smith, whom he called "one of the better guys in this rotation," giving them the starting-pitching edge. He noted the Marlins opened the season respectably but have been "terrible" of late, and the SportsChatPlace betting tools also flashed a play on Chicago. All of that convinced Francis that the South Siders are in a sneaky buy spot despite the series being, in his words, “by far the worst of the weekend.”

Francis bet the White Sox team total under 3.5. Chicago has yet to clear that number in this entire series and now faces left-hander Kris Bubik, whom he called “a really good lefty.” Even at –150 juice he believes it’s worth playing (or using as a parlay piece) because the Sox offense simply isn’t producing four-run games right now.

Francis took Philadelphia over 4.5 runs. The Phillies have topped that mark in three of their last four versus Tampa and have dominated the series, posting 8-4 and 7-0 wins. He emphasized that the hitter-friendly park the Rays are using has unlocked Philly’s offense, so he expects another 5+ run night.

After losing with Texas yesterday, Francis flipped to the Red Sox moneyline. His case: the Rangers have dropped five straight as underdogs and rookie Jack Leiter was rocked in his last turn, "returning to earth." Boston counters with Brayan Bello, whom Francis trusts more, and he expects the Sox bats to make Leiter pay in Fenway.

Brad Francis laid the-1.5 with Minnesota, noting the Twins have covered the run line in seven straight games that follow a win. He said Baltimore has reverted to “vintage Orioles” form, calling them a bad club after two good seasons. With plus-money available at +136, Francis believes backing a hot, streak-covering Twins team against a struggling opponent is the sharp side.

Francis laid the −1.5 run line with Detroit in Colorado. He cited the Tigers covering the run line in five straight spots as road favorites against NL clubs and being first in their division, while the Rockies have looked like baseball’s doormat. Given the talent gap and Detroit’s recent habit of winning comfortably, he expects another multi-run victory at Coors.

Brad Francis backed Philadelphia on the money line, noting the Phils have rattled off eight straight wins as American-League favorites and now walk into hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field. He acknowledged Drew Rasmussen’s solid form for Tampa Bay but pointed out how the Rays were just swept by Kansas City at home and have been markedly worse in their own park. With odds still close to pick’em, Francis preferred the hotter lineup and the streak that has been printing money for bettors.

Francis played the no-runs first inning in White Sox-Royals thanks to competent starters and ice-cold bats on both sides. Seth Lugo (KC) and Burke (CHW) have been keeping traffic to a minimum, while neither offense has shown any punch—Monday’s series opener was another low-scoring slog. With two scuffling lineups and pitchers who pound the zone, Francis expects six quick outs and a NRFI ticket to cash.

Brad Francis took Burke’s strikeout prop over 3.5. The right-hander has cleared that bar in three of his past five starts, and Kansas City’s lineup remains one of the most strikeout-prone in the league. Even with the stigma around backing anything tied to Chicago’s rotation, Francis believes four punch-outs are well within reach against these whiff-happy Royals.

Francis laid the −1.5 run line with Detroit in Colorado. He cited the Tigers covering the run line in five straight spots as road favorites against NL clubs and being first in their division, while the Rockies have looked like baseball’s doormat. Given the talent gap and Detroit’s recent habit of winning comfortably, he expects another multi-run victory at Coors.

Brad Francis backed Philadelphia on the money line, noting the Phils have rattled off eight straight wins as American-League favorites and now walk into hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field. He acknowledged Drew Rasmussen’s solid form for Tampa Bay but pointed out how the Rays were just swept by Kansas City at home and have been markedly worse in their own park. With odds still close to pick’em, Francis preferred the hotter lineup and the streak that has been printing money for bettors.

Brad Francis advised betting Cleveland on the money-line because Washington’s relief corps has been, in his words, “by far the worst bullpen in the MLB.” Cleveland has already cashed six straight as a favorite immediately after a win, and Francis is confident that even with one of the weaker rotation arms (right-hander Ortiz) on the hill, the Guardians will eventually see the Nationals pen and pull away. The handicap hinges on situational form (six-game favorite streak) and the glaring bullpen mismatch rather than the initial starting-pitcher matchup.

Francis laid a half-run with Los Angeles through five innings. He reminded listeners that the Dodgers tagged Sandy Alcantara for seven runs in just 2⅔ innings during last week’s series in L.A. and called the matchup “the best team in the MLB versus one of the worst.” Given Alcantara’s recent struggles and the Marlins’ general ineptitude, Brad expects L.A. to hold a lead at the midpoint again.

Despite Sunday’s goose egg versus Milwaukee, Francis is going right back to the Cubs at –148. He labeled Giants starter Landen Rope (his pronunciation) as one of San Francisco’s weaker rotation pieces and expects Chicago’s offense to bounce back and do damage. The money-line price might be best suited as a parlay leg, but he still prefers Chicago straight.

Francis laid the run-and-a-half with Kansas City, noting Chicago has failed to cover the run line in recent trips to Kauffman Stadium and describing the White Sox as “terrible.” He likes the combination of the Royals’ strong home form and Cole Ragans on the bump, forecasting that a porous White Sox lineup will struggle to keep it competitive on the road.