Brad Pick Dawgz took the Cardinals money line with Sonny Gray on the hill. Joe Boyle starts for Tampa and Brad said the rookie’s command issues (12.8% BB-rate last three outings) make him fade-worthy. Even though Gray is coming off a rough appearance, Brad trusts the veteran’s track record of sub-3.50 ERAs and expects a classic rebound. He added that St. Louis looked "pretty damn good" in Miami earlier this week and should carry that momentum into Tropicana Field.

Brad Pick Dawgz grabbed Padres –0.5 on the first-five run line. He has been auto-fading San Francisco for a month and doesn’t plan to stop with "Old Man Verlander" toeing the slab, noting the veteran’s declining velocity and 4.71 ERA in his last five turns. Brad believes San Diego’s lineup will strike early while the reeling Giants offense continues to rank bottom-5 in wRC+ since the All-Star break, giving the Friars a lead by the sixth inning.

Brad Pick Dawgz played the Cubs team total over 4.5 runs, arguing that Friday’s blowout loss leaves Chicago’s lineup "pissed off" and primed to respond. He specifically wants to fade Aaron Savale after the right-hander’s best outing of the year, expecting immediate regression. With the White Sox riding an unsustainable hot streak and Savale due to come "back down to earth," Brad projects the Cubs’ offense to plate at least five runs.

Brad Pick Dawgz made the Reds his favorite play because Tampa Bay has dropped five straight road contests, just lost a series to the White Sox, and fell in Game 1 of this set. Meanwhile, Cincinnati sends breakout rookie Andrew Abbott to the mound—Brad called the southpaw “incredible this season.” Given the Reds’ home form combined with Abbott’s edge over a struggling Rays squad, Brad expects Cincinnati to keep Tampa’s slide alive and cash the moneyline.

Brad Pick Dawgz grabbed the Yankees at plus money, leaning on two data points. First, New York has won five consecutive games as an underdog versus Philadelphia. Second, Ranger Suarez’s recent form has cratered—Brad noted the Phillies’ lefty was "smacked up" in each of his last two starts. Because Philadelphia is a noticeably weaker club away from Citizens Bank Park, Brad expects the sputtering Suarez to be vulnerable again and believes the Yankees’ lineup can exploit him for another upset victory.

Brad Pick Dawgz backed the Diamondbacks on the moneyline, calling it a fair price against a Pirates club he labeled "ass." His confidence stems from two angles: (1) Pittsburgh has dropped eight straight home games versus NL West opponents, a trend he views as indicative of a talent gap, and (2) Andrew Heaney takes the ball for the Bucs, and Brad expects Arizona’s lineup to "smack up" the left-hander. With the D-backs fielding the better roster and the Pirates mired in a specific home losing skid, Brad considers laying the juice worthwhile.

Brad Pick Dawgz is willing to eat the juice on Chicago’s money-line because of a sharp situational and pitching edge. The Cubs have won eight consecutive games when favored against AL Central clubs, and Shota Imanaga, despite a rough last outing, owns underlying numbers (29% K-rate, 2.44 xERA) that dwarf those of Minnesota’s Louie Varland Woods Richardson, who Brad says has been "smacked up all around" this year. He expects Imanaga to bounce back and extend Chicago’s dominance over the division.

Brad Pick Dawgz likes the Mariners at plus money in the Bronx. He called it a clear pitching mismatch: Logan Gilbert owns a 3.15 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, while New York countered with rookie Will Warren. The Yankees have dropped four straight and, per Brad, Seattle’s bats generally travel well— especially moving from T-Mobile Park to the much more hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. He even singled out Cal Raleigh as a bounce-back candidate, reinforcing the value on Seattle’s money-line.

Brad Pick Dawgz urged bettors to swallow the juice on Boston -1.5. His case: Colorado has been "absolutely pitiful" away from Coors Field, while the surging Red Sox have covered four straight run lines. Given Boston’s current form and the Rockies’ travel struggles, Brad expects another multi-run victory at Fenway.

Brad Pick Dawgz recommended taking the Tigers straight-up against Tampa Bay. He pointed to Detroit’s current seven-game home winning streak versus AL East clubs and said the club has been "so damn dominant" at Comerica Park overall. Brad also believes the Rays have "lost a bit of their juice" after a short hot spell and that the posted price still underrates Detroit’s edge, making the Tigers a solid money-line wager.

Brad Pick Dawgz backed the Padres money line for Game 2 because he trusts Nick Pivetta more than Merrill Kelly right now. Pivetta is rolling—zero earned runs at Washington on June 25 and just one earned versus a loaded Phillies lineup on July 2—while Kelly has allowed 3+ runs in three of his last four outings, surrendered a homer in each of those starts, and struggled with walks. Brad also flagged Arizona’s bullpen as an ongoing liability that has coughed up several late-game leads and noted Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions plus San Diego’s stronger home splits. With the Padres likely motivated after a potential Game 1 loss and getting a “pretty good price,” he advised taking the Padres money line.

Brad Pick Dawgz played Andrew Heaney to record 4+ strikeouts. Heaney has cleared 3.5 Ks in three of his last five outings, and Brad highlighted that Kansas City "continue to struggle to hit the ball"—especially versus left-handed pitching. Given Heaney’s handedness advantage and the Royals’ poor contact metrics, Brad expects the southpaw to hit at least four punch-outs.

Brad Pick Dawgz labeled the Guardians-Astros ‘No Runs First Inning’ his favorite play of the slate. He called both clubs "under machines": Cleveland has been highly profitable to the under on the road, while Houston cashes unders at home. Expecting another low-scoring affair, Brad believes the first frame stays quiet and is betting the Nerfie accordingly.

Brad Pick Dawgz played Rangers 1st-5 -0.5 at even money because Jacob deGrom is "that much better" than Yusei Kikuchi. He pointed out that Texas has momentum—"been playing pretty damn well"—and expects deGrom to keep the Angels’ bats quiet long enough for the Rangers’ offense to scrape together an early lead. The combination of the pitching mismatch and team form made the even-money price too good for him to pass up.

Brad Pick Dawgz laid the -160 with Houston because the two clubs are, in his words, "headed in different directions." Cleveland has dropped 10 straight, and Brad emphasized that the Guardians "can't hit a beach ball right now," making them a cash-cow fade during this skid. Houston, meanwhile, is trending upward, so he is comfortable paying a steeper money-line price he rarely touches, convinced that the Guardians’ offensive funk makes the Astros a strong favorite play.

Brad Pick Dawgz said the Miami Marlins are worth a money-line stab at plus odds because he sees the Reds–Marlins game as a true 50/50. Miami, in his view, is still playing one of its best stretches of the season despite dropping the weekend set to Milwaukee. He noted that projected starter Janson Junk "hasn't looked that bad on the mound," while he views opposing arm Brady Singer as far more volatile, having "struggled at spots." In a toss-up where he believes the pitching matchup is close and Miami owns the better current form, Brad is happy to grab the extra value on the Fish.

Brad Pick Dawgz played Gavin Williams over 15.5 pitching outs. He noted the Cleveland rookie has cleared that number in five of his past six outings and that this Guardians-Tigers set has been extremely low scoring. With both offenses struggling, Brad expects another economical start that lets Williams log at least six full innings.

Brad Pick Dawgz grabbed the Pirates money-line solely because "In Paul Skenes we trust." He forecasted a 1–0 or 2–1 type game and believes the rookie flamethrower can shut down Seattle long enough for Pittsburgh’s offense to scratch across the lone run it needs, even on the road.

Brad Pick Dawgz took the Diamondbacks money-line, arguing they are the clearly superior club and have won three of their last four against Kansas City, including Saturday’s 7–1 romp. He still doesn’t trust the Royals’ lineup, saying they “just don’t have the bats to keep up” unless one of their aces is on the mound, which isn’t the case here.

Brad Pick Dawgz played the A’s team total over 4.5. His reasoning: San Francisco starts Mason Birdsong, "who just hasn’t been great this season," and the park is one of the more hitter-friendly environments in MLB. Oakland has cashed this exact number in five of its last six contests, and Brad sees no reason the hot bats cool off against a struggling arm.

Brad Pick Dawgz recommended paying up for the Tigers –1.5, citing a "massive, significant pitching advantage" with Tarik Skubal opposite Gavin Williams. Brad went so far as to say he "would not be surprised if the Guardians scored zero runs" given Skubal’s current form and Cleveland’s light-hitting lineup. Williams, while serviceable, simply can’t match Skubal’s swing-and-miss stuff, and Brad expects Detroit’s offense to open a multi-run cushion.

Brad Pick Dawgz backed the Twins money-line, pointing out that Minnesota has won four straight at Target Field and already grabbed the first two games of this set from Tampa Bay. He noted the club’s Jekyll-and-Hyde nature and prefers riding their upswing rather than fading it. A big part of the confidence comes from Joe Ryan taking the hill; Brad called himself "a big Joe Ryan guy" and expects the right-hander to "wheel and deal" against a Rays lineup that has struggled to string hits together on the road.