Brandon Gdula identified J.J. Spaun as a core play at $8,600, noting Spaun’s field-best 86 score in their stabilization model. That metric blends recent form with longer-term baselines and suggests Spaun’s ball-striking is far less volatile than similarly-priced names. Gdula likes Spaun’s proven fairway-finding and reliable wedges as a recipe for surviving Oakmont’s five-inch rough and lightning-fast greens—he expects Spaun to hover around even par each day, which should cruise through a projected +5 cut line. The salary works perfectly in Gdula’s preferred stars-and-scrubs approach: Spaun supplies high-probability cut equity without forcing him to sacrifice a Scheffler, DeChambeau or Rahm at the top. He will have heavy Spaun exposure in both cash games and single-entry GPPs.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Aaron Rai as a sneaky finishing-position bet rather than a DFS core piece. Rai ranks 3rd on Tour in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds and is one of only eight players in the Oakmont field gaining strokes both off-the-tee and on approach while hitting at least 70% of fairways. Gdula admitted the Englishman’s putter is unreliable, but argued that a ‘T18-ish’ finish is firmly in play if Oakmont turns into a grind where pars gain ground and fairway finders avoid the brutal rough. With Top-20 odds expected to settle in the +500 to +600 range, Gdula sees Rai as an efficient way to get exposure to Oakmont’s accuracy premium without relying on four straight days of made putts.

Brandon Gdula said Jon Rahm’s $11,900 FanDuel salary makes him a better DFS centerpiece than a 12-to-1 outright bet. Rahm still ranks top-5 in True Strokes Gained over the past three months and pairs top-end distance with above-average accuracy—an ideal blend for Oakmont’s 28-yard fairways and five-inch rough. Gdula plans to roster two of the ‘big four’ (Scheffler, DeChambeau, McIlroy, Rahm) in many lineups and views Rahm as the most affordable way to do it without dipping below $8k at every other spot. He noted that Rahm’s high-floor profile—16 consecutive U.S. Open rounds gaining strokes tee-to-green—creates massive DFS security, whereas the outright market offers little value given Scottie Scheffler’s current dominance.

Brandon Gdula recommended sprinkling Rory McIlroy into GPP builds as a pure game-theory pivot. With most of the field funneling salary to Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau, Gdula expects McIlroy’s roster percentage to lag despite still being part of his self-described 'big five' with true winning equity. He argued that lineups featuring Rory plus one of the two chalk studs can leapfrog massive chunks of the contest if McIlroy wins because virtually no one will afford that combination. Although Gdula has reservations in the betting market—citing the 44-inch driver experiment and mental fatigue—he stressed those concerns matter far less in DFS, where finishing position and birdie bonuses provide asymmetric upside. The play is not to fade Scheffler but to replicate a Scheffler/Bryson build and swap Rory for one of them in a few entries, capturing leverage without sacrificing top-tier ceiling.

Brandon Gdula pushed back on Niemann’s backers, arguing that 30-to-1 is still too short for a golfer who has never been a real Sunday factor in a major. Outside two hot rounds at Quail Hollow, Niemann’s big-event resume is paper-thin and his short game remains exploitable. Gdula prefers Ludvig Aberg at 25-to-1 or Collin Morikawa in the same range because both own better U.S. Open track records and more rounded skill sets. He went as far as booking a personal head-to-head against Niemann with Aberg, underscoring that Niemann will be a fade for him in outright and finishing-position markets.

After merely "warming up" in earlier segments, Brandon Gdula officially added Xander Schauffele at 22-to-1 to his very short outright card. Gdula called Oakmont a "dogs-barking" setup where the elite separate and believes Schauffele’s quiet renaissance—solid gains in every strokes-gained category even when one area slips—gives him the ceiling to keep pace with the game’s two juggernauts. Schauffele’s U.S. Open record remains spotless (never worse than 14th in eight starts), and Gdula thinks the 28-yard fairways plus five-inch rough will accentuate Xander’s balanced tee-to-green profile. With only Rahm and Schauffele on his card, Gdula is comfortable fading the rest of the mid-tier outright board.

Brandon Gdula locked in Jon Rahm at 12-to-1 to win Oakmont, calling him the only player capable of dethroning Scottie Scheffler or Bryson DeChambeau at the moment. Gdula highlighted Rahm’s absurd U.S. Open resume—gaining strokes in 19 of 20 off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, and putting buckets across his last five starts—and noted that Rahm pairs top-end distance with above-average accuracy, a rare combo for 28-yard fairways. After a T14 at Augusta and a T8 at the PGA, Gdula believes Rahm’s "ball-striking is super pure" again, and his elite short-game touch is tailor-made for chipping off Oakmont’s slick, crown-shaped greens. At a number longer than Rory McIlroy’s, Gdula sees Rahm as the clear value among the first tier of outright prices.

Brandon Gdula gave Sepp Straka a second shout-out despite his $10,700 FanDuel salary. Straka ranks fifth in the field at 1.99 True Strokes Gained per round over the last three months—better than Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa. That surge is backed by a win at the Truist, a 3rd at Memorial, and irons that are finally catching up to his accurate driving. While his U.S. Open resume is thin, Gdula argued that Straka’s fairway-finding and hot putter give him a path to thrive on Oakmont’s narrow corridors and 14.5-stimp greens. He views Straka as a contrarian but live DFS tournament play and likes him in top-30 or top-40 finish markets even if the outright price never drifts long enough.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Keegan Bradley as one of the very few sub-$9.5k golfers he trusts this week. Bradley is gaining 1.73 True Strokes per round over the last three months and just posted 8th at the PGA Championship and 7th at Memorial. DataGolf still rates him as an elite tee-to-green player, which Gdula believes is exactly what Oakmont rewards. Although Bradley has made only six of 12 U.S. Open cuts, both of his better weeks produced top-7 finishes, showing real upside. With salary flexibility at a premium when you jam in Scottie and Bryson, Gdula is using Bradley as a mid-range DFS anchor and sprinkling him in top-20 betting markets.

Brandon Gdula said Scottie Scheffler’s current form is so far ahead of everyone else that you have to treat him as a must-start despite the prohibitive FanDuel salary and short outright number. Scheffler is averaging 3.41 True Strokes Gained per round over the past three months—three wins in four starts (CJ Cup, Byron Nelson, PGA Championship) and a T4 at the Charles Schwab while losing with the putter. That gives him a 1.24-stroke edge per round on the entire field except Bryson DeChambeau, which would translate to roughly five shots over 72 holes if all players hit their baselines. Gdula emphasized that Scheffler combines elite distance with at-least-average fairway accuracy, meaning Oakmont’s 28-yard fairways and five-inch rough are unlikely to derail him. Because of that separation, Gdula is comfortable anchoring cash-game and tournament DFS builds around Scheffler and believes his tiny outright price is still more than fair rather than a fade spot.

Brandon Gdula cautioned against blindly backing Hideki Matsuyama this week. While the Japanese star owns finishes of 6th, 32nd and 4th over the last three U.S. Opens and has made 11 of 12 cuts in the event, Gdula pointed out that Matsuyama’s hallmark iron play is currently mediocre. Without vintage approach numbers, Hideki could struggle to hold Oakmont’s 14.5-stimp greens out of five-inch rough and 168 bunkers, especially after missing the cut here in 2016. Gdula is passing on outright tickets and will keep DFS exposure light unless mid-week data show his irons have snapped back.

Brandon Gdula framed Bryson DeChambeau as a top-tier target in both betting and DFS. DeChambeau has claimed two of the last five U.S. Opens (2020 Winged Foot, 2024 Pinehurst No. 2), owns seven straight cuts made in the championship, finished T5 at this year’s Masters and runner-up at the PGA, and logged T15 the last time Oakmont hosted in 2016. Gdula noted that Bryson’s lab-built approach—elite ball speed now paired with improved fairway accuracy—makes him uniquely suited for Oakmont’s combo of 28-yard fairways and punishing rough. With his ceiling already proven in the toughest conditions, Gdula is comfortable backing DeChambeau in the outright market and building heavy DFS exposure even if his salary lands in the five-figure range.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Xander Schauffele as almost automatic at U.S. Opens. In eight career starts, Schauffele has never finished worse than 14th and owns three top-5s. DataGolf shows he has been positive in 21 of 24 strokes-gained buckets (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, putting) across six measured editions, losing only marginally twice around the green and once with the putter. Gdula thinks Schauffele’s combination of length, week-to-week spikes in different categories, and comfort on brutally difficult setups is tailor-made for Oakmont’s narrow fairways, deep rough and lightning-fast greens. He has not pushed an outright ticket yet but is “warming up” to Schauffele for win bets, top-finishes and as a high-floor/high-ceiling DFS anchor.

Brandon Gdula said he cannot buy low on Rory McIlroy even at the tempting 11-to-1 outright number on FanDuel. Although McIlroy owns back-to-back runner-up finishes and the best total strokes gained across the last five U.S. Opens, Gdula listed several red flags: Rory has been experimenting with a shorter 44-inch driver, publicly admitted it is "hard to grind" after completing the career Grand Slam, and looked lost while shooting +8 on Friday at the Canadian Open. Practice-round reports from Oakmont have not been encouraging, and Gdula questions whether McIlroy is mentally engaged enough to navigate 28-yard fairways, five-inch rough and 14.5-stimp greens. With Scottie Scheffler healthy and Bryson DeShambo surging, Gdula prefers to fade McIlroy in both outright and DFS markets until form and focus return.

Brandon Gdula urged bettors to keep some bankroll free for in-tournament wagers rather than forcing pre-event numbers that feel a touch too short. He said the soggy Quail Hollow forecast makes round-to-round volatility likely and cited Rory McIlroy’s Masters roller-coaster as proof that an elite player can look unbeatable early, stumble, then still contend once odds lengthen. Gdula specifically mentioned Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele: he believes their current outright prices are fine but could drift to an even tastier range if either posts a "ho-hum" opening round. Because, in his words, "you can lose it on Thursday, but you can’t win it on Thursday," he recommends monitoring live markets—especially with FanDuel’s per-round profit boosts—to pounce on any Thursday-night or Friday-morning overreaction that pushes elite talents into value territory.

Brandon Gdula targeted Daniel Berger for a top-20 at +260, arguing the number underrates his all-around form. Berger sits 17th in DataGolf’s pro rankings and 12th in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds despite playing only two majors since 2022 due to injury—T21 at both the 2025 Masters and 2024 U.S. Open. He owns four made cuts in five Quail Hollow starts with consistently positive iron splits. While Gdula admitted Berger’s lack of elite distance caps a true win bid, his top-25 irons and wedges over the past 50 rounds plus solid scrambling make a top-20 the optimal market exposure in a soggy, ball-striking-heavy setup.

Brandon Gdula recommended Corey Conners for a top-20 finish at +210, saying the Canadian’s iron play is simply too good to ignore even on a bomber-friendly Quail Hollow. Conners ranks 24th in strokes gained per round across nine majors since 2023, 13th in approach and 14th in overall ball-striking against this week’s field. His Quail Hollow record backs it up—top-15 finishes in each of his last two starts—and no one in the field with more than four measured rounds has gained more approach strokes here (1.37 per round over 18 rounds, next-best is 0.93). Gdula conceded Conners lacks pop off the tee, but believes the pristine iron numbers and proven major form justify a plus-money top-20 ticket despite the possibility of clustered scoring.

Brandon Gdula recommended Viktor Hovland at +400 for a top-10 finish, arguing that Quail Hollow’s rain-soaked fairways will turn the major into a pure ball-striking contest that masks Hovland’s short-game weakness. Hovland sits 26th in DataGolf’s pro rankings—well inside the historical top-12 threshold for most recent major winners—and is gaining 7.4 yards per drive on the field (40th in distance) while ranking 9th in approach over his last 50 rounds. Gdula acknowledged the wedges remain shaky but noted Hovland’s putter runs hot-and-cold, giving him enough ceiling if the flatstick cooperates. With only three par-5s and softened greens limiting rollout, he expects carry distance and iron play to separate contenders; those are Hovland’s strengths. Gdula prefers the top-10 because it captures upside without requiring the perfect short-game week a 50-1 outright would need, but he still views Hovland as one of the few mid-tier names capable of winning if everything clicks.

Brandon Gdula advised passing on Rory McIlroy at +450 to win the PGA Championship, calling the number "a little too rich" despite acknowledging that McIlroy checks every box. McIlroy owns four victories at Quail Hollow (2010, 2015, 2021, 2024), has made 12 of 13 cuts there, and enters with wins at Pebble Beach, THE PLAYERS, and the Masters in his last eight stroke-play starts. He ranks second on tour in carry distance, third in distance gained over his last 50 rounds, and is a top-10 putter in that span. Even so, Gdula’s simulations do not justify a sub-5-to-1 ticket in a major field featuring Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and other elite bombers who also fit the course profile. Bettors looking for value should wait for a drift toward 6-1 or pivot to other outrights and finishing props.

Brandon Gdula called Justin Thomas the best outright bet at current markets, loving the 20-1 number. Thomas has finished 2nd-Win-2nd in three of his last four starts outside Augusta, highlighted by an RBC Heritage playoff victory, and he ranks #1 Tee-to-Green and #2 in mathematical ceiling (overall strokes gained) over the past 50 rounds, trailing only Scottie Scheffler. Gdula added that Thomas’s putting—long his Achilles heel—has moved from liability to merely average, which is all he needs given elite ball-striking. Course history sweetens the deal: JT won the 2017 PGA at Quail Hollow and has churned out four consecutive top-26 finishes here since, leveraging one of the Tour’s best around-the-green games on a venue where scrambling historically matters. In a week where the three favorites are sub-5-1, Gdula thinks Thomas offers the perfect mix of win equity and price and is the lone ticket he is locking in right now.

Brandon Gdula said Bryson DeChambeau is the one elite he would consider backing, but only if the outright price drifts to +900 or longer. Gdula argued that Quail Hollow’s forecast—soaked fairways and virtually no rollout—exaggerates the premium on pure carry distance, an area where DeChambeau leads the entire field by 0.30 strokes over the next-best driver, gaining 1.56 strokes off-the-tee per round over his last 50 rounds (adjusted for LIV strength via DataGolf). He also cited Bryson’s improved major resume and excellent Quail Hollow form (4th and T9 in his two most recent starts) as proof he can capitalize. However, the current +700 number is “top dollar,” reflecting heavy early action; at that price Gdula prefers to wait, noting that a wet setup already generated significant liability for books, so a re-lengthening to +850 or +900 is the only spot he will fire.

Brandon Gdula noted that Scottie Scheffler’s 2025 form actually tops Rory McIlroy’s despite Rory’s three wins, citing DataGolf’s true strokes-gained metric: Scheffler +2.91 per round versus Rory +2.72. With both golfers now sitting at +450, Gdula refuses to bet either outright but would lean Scheffler in head-to-head markets if prices are equal or Scheffler is even a slight favorite. Conversely, he would only bet Rory if the market offered +105 or longer in a matchup, which looks unlikely. The takeaway: fade both in outrights at +450, but prioritize Scheffler in any even-money matchup because the data says he is objectively the better golfer in 2025 even without Quail Hollow history.

Brandon Gdula advised fading Jon Rahm at 18-1, pointing to mediocre iron play and a reliance on short-game heroics in his T-14 at Augusta. Rahm has limited positive history at Quail Hollow and ranks outside the top 100 in strokes-gained approach over his last 50 measured rounds, per datagolf. With length alone not enough to separate in this major field, Gdula believes the price is far too short for a player still searching for his pre-LIV ball-striking levels.

Brandon Gdula recommended an outright on Justin Thomas at 20-1, citing datagolf numbers that put JT No. 1 in the field in tee-to-green strokes gained over the last 50 rounds. The putter, normally the worry, has been 'vibing' in recent starts and Thomas brings elite Quail Hollow memories—he lifted the Wanamaker here in 2017. Current form is peaking again with finishes of 2nd, 1st and T-2 in his three most recent non-Augusta tournaments. Gdula concluded that Thomas’ statistical ceiling and proven comfort on the course make 20-1 too long.

Brandon Gdula questioned why Matt Fitzpatrick jumped to a $9,700 price tag after sitting in the low-$8k range just one week earlier. Fitzpatrick’s recent form shows only marginal improvement—19th in true strokes gained over the last 24 rounds—and he remains barely field-average in both driving distance and long-iron proximity, two stats Gdula deems critical for Quail Hollow. With golfers like Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Young, and Corey Conners priced cheaper yet offering superior distance or ball-striking, Gdula ruled Fitzpatrick a tiebreak-loser and plans to be underweight or entirely off him in DFS builds.

Brandon Gdula spotlighted Maverick McNealy as the best sub-$8k salary saver on the slate. At just $7,700, McNealy owns plus distance, a putter that gains 0.46 strokes per round, and irons trending sharply upward—his 2025 season-to-date approach numbers are the best of his career. Gdula noted McNealy has logged 1.11 true strokes gained per round over the last six months and checks in at 1.07 in Sannes’ Stabilization metric, giving him both a reliable floor and a realistic ceiling. Plugging McNealy into a lineup allows gamers to jam Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Justin Thomas together while still averaging $8,800 for the final two spots. Gdula said he is willing to play McNealy even in single-entry GPPs and would not be surprised if the Stanford grad sneaks a top-25 finish.

Brandon Gdula called Daniel Berger one of his favorite value plays at an $8,900 salary. Since returning from injury Berger has posted nine consecutive top-30 finishes—including three podiums—while gaining 1.87 true strokes per round. Gdula highlighted Berger’s steady Quail Hollow résumé (five career starts, four made cuts, two top-25s) and his eight top-25s in 27 majors as proof he handles big-event pressure. The combination of elite recent form, reliable iron play, and a historically strong short game lets DFS players afford a Rory/Bryson core without sacrificing cut-making equity. Gdula is also eyeing Berger for top-20 bets around +240, noting that his balanced skill-set plays up at a 7,600-yard par-71 where missing greens is inevitable.

Brandon Gdula said he will only add Scottie Scheffler to his outright card if the line balloons to +650 or longer. His model already makes Scheffler the favorite, but at the current +450 the implied 18% win probability offers zero edge and would crowd out the rest of his card. By waiting for +650—about a 13% implied chance—Gdula ensures that he is being paid to take on the volatility of a full-field major and can stick to a two-bullet card of Scheffler plus Xander Schauffele. He deliberately sets the threshold well past his fair number because he refuses to over-weight course history and wants to maintain flexibility for DFS and placement markets.

Despite three straight Quail Hollow finishes of T18 or better, Brandon Gdula cannot justify rostering Seamus Power at $7,700. Power’s last eight measured starts show him losing strokes both off-the-tee and on approach, and his average drive is 13 yards shorter than the field. Gdula conceded the Irishman scrambles well but argued that recent ball-striking regression makes a missed cut more likely than a spike week. He recommends using Power only as a deep-field pivot under 5% exposure and keeping him off outright or placement cards entirely.

Brandon Gdula advised passing on Sungjae Im this week, noting the South Korean is parked right at field average in every strokes-gained category over his last 24 rounds. Im’s recent success at Quail Hollow (three top-25s in five starts) has been almost entirely putter-driven, and he still sits well below the field median in driving distance. With Quail’s 7,600-yard layout strongly favoring bombers, Gdula sees little ceiling and plenty of ownership risk in DFS. He will exclude Im from his player pool and look toward stronger tee-to-green profiles in the same price tier.