Brian Kirschner wagered Daniel Berger Top-20 at +130 after noting Berger has finished inside the top 20 in five of his last eight PGA Tour starts. Kirschner believes another big finish at an elevated event would bolster Berger’s Ryder Cup candidacy and likes his steady tee-to-green play to navigate Wissahickon.

Brian Kirschner backed Keegan Bradley +4000 FRL by recalling Bradley’s first-round lead at the 2022 BMW, the last time the Tour debuted a bentgrass course in the Northeast. Kirschner believes Bradley consistently elevates his game in the region and is always live to open hot.

Brian Kirschner doubled down on Harris English at +10000. He referenced English’s 2021 Travelers win, past success on northeast bentgrass and his current form—victory at Torrey Pines, 18th in Houston, 12th at Augusta. Kirschner believes English is positioned for another PGA Tour win on a soft, target-golf setup.

Brian Kirschner jumped on Viktor Hovland at +2800, arguing the 2023 FedEx Cup champ owns more true win equity than peers in his price band. Hovland’s best performances—wins or near-wins at Oak Hill, Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields—have come on classical bentgrass courses featuring moderate scoring, the exact profile of Philly Cricket Club. With soft conditions and precise iron play expected to separate the field, Kirschner believes Hovland’s ball-striking sets him up to contend deep into Sunday.

Kirschner’s 100-1 dart is Sami Valimaki, citing a blistering approach run of +4.2, +8.1, +4.8 and +3.2 strokes gained in his last four starts plus positive putting in eight of his last nine events. Valimaki already logged top finishes at comp courses Houston and Mexico, both long tracks that emphasize driver usage. Kirschner says those parallels and the Finn’s dual-threat iron/putter combo make him a live longshot in Dallas.

Brian Kirschner pounced on Stephan Jaeger at +4000, calling the number a clear mis-price. He cites Jaeger’s win at the 2024 Houston Open and T6 at the Mexico Open—two comps with generous driving corridors and minimal penalty for missed fairways. Kirschner adds that Jaeger’s irons have "rounded into form," an important indicator because the German intentionally schedules this event each year due to the fit. The high driver usage and low rough at TPC Craig Ranch allow him to lean on his best weapon while avoiding trouble, making Kirschner believe Jaeger’s true win probability is far higher than 2.5%.

Brian Kirschner laid -125 on Mitchell/Poston for a Top‑20 finish, calling them one of the field’s most balanced teams. Both are fresh off top‑11 results (Mitchell T2, Poston T11), Mitchell brings prior Zurich experience, and their contrasting strengths—Mitchell’s driving with Poston’s approach/putting—provide multiple paths to a steady finish even if one facet misfires.

Brian Kirschner jumped on Max Greyserman and Nico Echavarria at +4000, pointing out they finished T4 here last season when both were in far worse form. Across the last 50 rounds Greyserman ranks 1st and Echavarria 17th on Tour in total birdies, a key stat for two best‑ball rounds. Kirschner thinks their proven comfort at TPC Louisiana and elite birdie‑making profile make them a sneaky outright threat.

Brian Kirschner is optimistic about Daniel Berger's chances at the Valero Texas Open, noting a strong return to form so far in 2025. Berger has placed within the top 25 in each of his last four starts, including a T2 at the WMPO, which Kirschner cites as a relevant comp due to similarities in risk-reward TPC design. Berger's history of success in Texas, including a victory at Colonial, further strengthens his credentials as an appealing outright pick.

Brian Kirschner recommends Matti Schmid for a Top 40 finish at +150 odds, highlighting his balanced play lately, finishing 18th, 6th, and 28th in three of his last four events. Schmid gained strokes in all four major statistical categories last week and previously placed 21st here last year, demonstrating an ideal profile to have another solid finish this week.

Brian Kirschner picked Davis Thompson at +3500, emphasizing a strong fit with Memorial Park’s demands. Thompson has demonstrated above-average driving distance and strong short-game skills, an ideal blend for this course. He recently won the John Deere Classic and is coming off an impressive 12th-place showing at The Players Championship, gaining seven strokes ball striking. Thompson's clear course affinity was evidenced by his 21st-place finish in his last visit here, signaling this tournament as a prime opportunity for another win.

Brian Kirschner targeted Steven Jaeger (+5000) as his first-round leader bet, emphasizing Jaeger's recent excellent finishes—T3 at Sony, T6 in Mexico, and T20 at The Players. Additionally, Jaeger has an advantageous morning tee-time to avoid heavy afternoon winds, boosting his chances to jump out quickly at the Valspar Championship.

Brian Kirschner strongly discouraged backing Michael Kim for an outright win at THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite Michael Kim rating extremely well in the Bettspurts stat model, Kirschner highlighted Kim has yet to demonstrate consistent form through the weekend in larger events. While impressed with Kim’s overall resurgence this season, Kirschner emphasized a preference to bet him at weaker fields like the Valero or Valspar events, where he would be far likelier to contend.

Brian Kirschner indicated Aaron Rai makes a great option for a first-round leader bet at THE PLAYERS Championship, though he's uncertain about Rai's win equity to back as an outright. Rai enters the event after posting a T4 and T10 in his last two tournaments, showing excellent current form. Kirschner reconsidered his initial interest in Tom Kim, concluding that Rai provides similar upside at potentially better value. Despite Kirschner's reluctance towards an outright ticket, he's enthusiastic about Rai, particularly for first-round leader markets.

Brian Kirschner stated he is fully committed to betting Daniel Berger this week at 70/1 odds at THE PLAYERS Championship. Berger showed impressive resilience last week at Bay Hill, a course not ideally suited to his game, battling back strongly after a poor opening round. Kirschner stressed Berger is a proven Bermuda grass putter, excels on Florida courses, and fits this venue perfectly. He also pointed out that Berger ranks fourth in a recent statistical model he ran, reinforcing his confidence in Berger as an attractive outright pick at current odds.

Brian Kirschner expressed hesitancy to back Sepp Straka this week at THE PLAYERS Championship despite his popularity and recent run of good form. Straka leads the field in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds and gained an extraordinary 6.2 strokes putting last week. Kirschner believes Straka, historically a below-average putter, is due for regression and questions whether Straka can win an elite event like THE PLAYERS Championship after a sudden spike in form. He labeled Straka as a volatile boom-or-bust play, suggesting he's equally likely to contend to win or have an uneventful week.

Brian Kirschner will not bet Tommy Fleetwood to achieve his debut PGA Tour victory at THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite acknowledging Fleetwood's past success at this course, including a first-round leader performance, Kirschner doubts Fleetwood's ability to close and secure his first-ever PGA Tour win at such a high-profile event. Last week's tournament, Kirschner believed, illustrated a 'classic Tommy Fleetwood week' with a promising but ultimately unsatisfying finish. Kirschner's reluctance is rooted primarily in Fleetwood's history of near misses and continued inability to close out victories in strong fields and marquee events.

Brian Kirschner advised against betting on Hideki Matsuyama this week despite Matsuyama's consistently solid history at THE PLAYERS Championship. Kirschner expressed skepticism toward overly consistent performance trends at this notoriously volatile tournament, believing that Matsuyama is 'due' for regression and a possible missed cut, purely based on the historical anomaly of continually exceptional performances here. Kirschner also noted Matsuyama's recent underwhelming form, particularly with his iron play since his last victory, further supporting the case to fade Hideki this week.

Brian Kirschner is extremely bullish on Keegan Bradley as an outright bet for THE PLAYERS Championship, particularly at favorable 50-to-1 odds. Kirschner cited strong recent iron play, pointing out that Bradley ranked top-three in strokes-gained approach during his most recent event. He also noted Bradley's accuracy off the tee, potential for a hot putting week, and an advantageous betting narrative coming off two missed cuts at this tournament (which Kirschner specifically views as a positive factor for betting opportunities). Kirschner emphasized that Bradley was strongly in contention last week despite making silly mistakes, and expressed surprise and enthusiasm over the relative lack of public betting support.

Brian Kirschner considers Ludvig Aberg a solid betting play at 20-to-1 odds for THE PLAYERS Championship. He highlighted that Ludvig has played the course approximately 20 times over the past year and has extensively practiced short-sided chips around its famously challenging greens. Kirschner emphasized Aberg's elite skill set, pointing out his impressive tools and abilities despite occasional, unpredictable big misses under tournament pressure. Additionally, Kirschner noted that Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods expressed admiration for Ludvig, signaling immense respect amongst elite peers—an indicator of his high-end potential. Kirschner believes this could be a breakout moment for Ludvig and views his current odds as highly actionable.

Brian Kirschner is firmly against betting Rory McIlroy in THE PLAYERS Championship, mentioning Rory's ongoing 'tinkering' with his game as a significant red flag. Kirschner emphasized that amid swing adjustments and inconsistency, McIlroy represents poor value at the top of the betting board, especially given historically tough and unpredictable conditions at TPC Sawgrass. He concluded confidently that McIlroy won't deliver a winning performance this week.

Brian Kirschner advised avoiding betting on Scottie Scheffler to win THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting Scheffler's current putting woes. Kirschner noted that unlike last year when Scheffler entered the tournament with exceptional putting momentum following strong performances at Bay Hill, this year he is visibly frustrated and has missed numerous important putts. Given the difficulty of winning consecutive THE PLAYERS Championships—something Kirschner described as near impossible—he feels strongly that Scheffler won't succeed this week and encourages bettors to confidently pivot away from Scheffler and other favorites at the top due to better value in the 20s range of odds.