Kirschner’s prop is Sam Burns Top 20 at +160. Burns lost in a playoff in Canada, led the U.S. Open after 54 holes, and landed a Top-20 at the Travelers. He owns two previous Top-20s at the Scottish Open and even fired the low round of the day at Royal Troon last year, giving Kirschner confidence in another strong links showing.

For first-round leader Kirschner is fishing with Marco Penge at +9000. The Englishman already won the Hainan Classic this season and has posted finishes of 11th, 21st and 25th in his last three DP World Tour starts. Kirschner called him one of the best drivers in the field and expects that to separate him in calm morning conditions.

Kirschner’s long-shot is Maverick McNealy at +8000. McNealy historically pops on seaside venues like Pebble and Torrey and logged a T16 here in 2022. He comes in off finishes of T5, 37th and T17 while gaining both off-the-tee and with the putter in all three starts. Kirschner believes that driver-putter combination is exactly what wins at Renaissance.

Brian Kirschner tabbed Ryan Fox at +6500 to win outright. Fox has already captured the Myrtle Beach Classic and Canadian Open this season and followed those wins with consecutive top-20 finishes at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Kirschner loves his DP World Tour links pedigree and the elite driver-putter combo that travels well to Renaissance Club.

Kirschner rounded out his card with Kevin Velo at 150-to-1 with ten-place each-way terms. Velo has popped on enough recent leaderboards for Kirschner to view the price as a clear mis-tag in a field lacking star power. While hard stats were scarce, Kirschner emphasized Velo’s consistent ball-striking run on the Korn Ferry Tour and believes the 7,000-yard par-70 sets up well for a player whose strengths lie in precise iron play rather than raw distance. The wager is small-stake, high-ceiling, but Kirschner insists Velo is live for a surprise top-10 and offers major DFS salary relief.

Brian Kirschner singled out Patrick "Fish" Fishburn as his favorite mid-tier outright at 28-to-1. Fishburn hung around the first page of the leaderboard last week and owns proven success on par-70 layouts such as Sony. Kirschner’s research shows Chick Adams’ redesigned, 7,000-yard track will yield a ton of wedges plus a handful of long-iron approaches—exactly the two distance buckets where Fishburn’s strokes-gained numbers pop. Add in strong recent form and a weaker-than-Tour average field, and Kirschner is building both his betting card and DFS cores around Fishburn’s blend of short-game touch and high-end approach play.

Brian Kirschner pushed back on the Thorbjornsen hype, saying 16-to-1 is unpalatably short for an amateur in an alt-field event. While he is a believer in the talent and would gladly root for Thor with small "support win" bets, Kirschner prefers to "spread bullets" across the board rather than tie up significant bankroll in a single sub-20-to-1 ticket. He argued that the ISCO has enough variance and unknowns—new course, weaker field—that paying a premium for the favorite offers little betting value, so he is fading Thorbjornsen in outrights and DFS cash builds.

Brian Kirschner planted a flag on Ryan Fox for both the Scottish Open and next week’s Open at Portrush. Fox is the prototypical driver-putter threat and enters with sneaky form: T20 at the U.S. Open, T20 at the Travelers, and a top-5 in Canada earlier this summer. Kirschner highlighted Fox’s history of low rounds on coastal setups and his comfort in windy conditions—‘New Zealand is basically Scotland.’ With outright odds sitting around 60-1, he sees a bet-now window before Fox inevitably becomes a trendy pick next week. Kirschner is betting the outright and sprinkling top-10 props, convinced the Kiwi can add a third worldwide win in 12 months.

Brian Kirschner argued that 30-1 is a fair outright on Ludvig Aberg even though the Swede has cooled off since winning the Genesis. Aberg was in Sunday’s final group at last year’s Scottish Open, so course fit is proven. Kirschner noted that Aberg continues to gain both off-the-tee and on approach—elite ball-striking that travels—while the recent missed cuts are mostly short-game driven. The Renaissance Club rewards driving and iron play more than scrambling, and calm weather should reduce around-the-green exposure. Kirschner trusts Aberg’s high ceiling if he sniffs the lead again and prefers betting the talent at a discounted number rather than chasing short PGA Tour favorites.

Brian Kirschner said he is comfortable fading Scottie Scheffler at the Scottish Open. Kirschner pointed out that Scheffler’s Open Championship record is the weakest of the three majors and that the Texan has almost no course history at the Renaissance Club after skipping the event last season. Kirschner stressed that Scheffler’s putting numbers plummet once he leaves the perfectly-manicured U.S. Bent-grass surfaces, and this week’s slower fescue greens will not do him any favors. He also noted the pricing angle: Scheffler is still sub-3-1 in outright markets despite traveling overseas and playing his first competitive round in two weeks. Finally, Kirschner argued that elite players rarely want to ‘peak’ the week before a major and expects Scheffler to treat this more as a tune-up than a must-win. All of those factors make Scheffler an underlay in outrights and a player to avoid in DFS cash builds.

Brian Kirschner is taking a swing at Kevin Yu at +3500 to win outright. Kirschner noted Yu already owns a PGA Tour victory (Sanderson Farms) and pairs above-average length with surprising accuracy off the tee—an ideal combo for Deere Run’s generous fairways and wedge approaches. Yu is trending with a solo 3rd and T25 in his last two starts, and Kirschner thinks his balanced tee-to-green profile is being overlooked in a weak field, giving bettors a live number for his second PGA Tour title.

Kirschner played Jake Knapp Top-20 at +320. Knapp’s a true bomber and arrives fresh after skipping both the U.S. Open and Travelers. He posted a Top-30 in Canada and finished T31 at last year’s Rocket, proving comfort with Detroit GC’s lines. Kirschner trusts that combination of raw length and extra rest to unlock a Sunday top-20.

Brian Kirschner circled Stephan Jaeger at +7500. Jaeger feasts on courses that reward frequent driver usage and already owns a 2024 win (Texas Houston Open). With finishes of T3 at Sony, T6 Mexico, T11 Houston and two prior Rocket Classic top-10s, Kirschner sees ample ceiling. Familiarity with Detroit GC plus a recent stretch of top leaderboard appearances make Jaeger his preferred longshot.

Brian Kirschner fired on Davis Thompson at +4000 as his outright. Thompson finished runner-up here last year, and Kirschner called him an elite driver tailor-made for Detroit’s bomber-friendly setup. Although 2024 has been inconsistent, Thompson flashed upside at Genesis, THE PLAYERS and the Travelers, where he gained nearly seven strokes on approach. With the irons suddenly scorching and proof he can close (2023 John Deere win), Kirschner sees Thompson ready to contend again on forgiving fairways.

Brian Kirschner recommended J.T. Poston Top-20 at +160, reminding readers that Poston finished runner-up here in 2022 and owns multiple other strong Travelers showings. Coupled with a quietly consistent 2025 campaign, Kirschner believes a top-20 in a 70-man field is the floor for a player whose accuracy and putting fit the track perfectly.

Brian Kirschner fired on Akshay Bhatia at +4500 for FRL, reminding bettors the 22-year-old finished T4 here last year and has gained on approach in three straight starts, including a massive +7 SG: Approach at the Memorial. Kirschner expects familiar greens that Bhatia putted well on in 2024 to spark another quick start.

Brian Kirschner argued Andrew Novak should not be 100-1 in a limited field, reminding bettors that Novak finished runner-up at Harbour Town, another short Pete Dye venue. With his all-around game trending and the course asking for precision over power, Kirschner believes Novak can contend and possibly break through at lofty odds.

Brian Kirschner jumped on Si Woo Kim at +5000, noting the Korean already owns a win on a TPC Pete Dye layout and gained over five strokes on approach at last week’s U.S. Open. Although his Travelers record is thin, Kirschner believes the combination of elite iron play, a shorter track, and past success on Dye courses positions Kim for his fifth PGA Tour title.

Kirschner likes Akshay Bhatia at +4500 to be Thursday’s pacesetter. The 22-year-old finished T4 here last season, has gained on approach in three straight starts (including +7 SG at the Memorial), and putted lights-out on these greens a year ago—ingredients Kirschner says are perfect for a low opening number.

Brian Kirschner targeted Si Woo Kim at +5000, citing his track record on Pete Dye layouts and a sizzling iron week at Oakmont where he gained more than five strokes on approach. Kirschner believes the shorter River Highlands layout accentuates Kim’s accuracy and predicts a "very high finish" despite modest course history.

Kirschner played DeChambeau Even Money to finish inside the Top-20 after Round 1. He argued that the U.S. Open will always reward length and nobody is longer than Bryson. With the 2024 major run (win and two other close calls) still fresh, Kirschner calls the bet "very safe" for a player likely to overpower Oakmont early.

Kirschner took Finau 70-1 for FRL. He reminded listeners that Big Tone finished T3 at last year’s U.S. Open and owns two additional Top-8s in the event. Finau has gained 5 strokes on approach at Quail Hollow and 3 more at the Memorial in his last two starts, signalling irons are heating up. Kirschner thinks that form translates to a Thursday 65-66 that could cash the ticket.

Kirschner’s other longshot is Maverick McNealy at 110-1. McNealy enters off a T5 at the Memorial—his sixth Top-10 of 2025—and is chasing a Ryder Cup berth. Kirschner noted that McNealy is one of the best putters on earth and has recently gained strokes off the tee in both distance and accuracy. He trusts Mav to decipher Oakmont’s brutal greens and sees legitimate ceiling if the ball-striking holds.

Brian Kirschner fired at Bradley 100-1 on DraftKings, pointing to a sneaky-good 2025 season that has featured a T8 at the PGA Championship and a T7 at the Memorial—two demanding driving tests comparable to Oakmont. Kirschner highlighted Bradley’s exceptional ball-striking in both events and believes the veteran’s accuracy off the tee and solid short game give him real contend-equity. If the putter stays neutral, Kirschner thinks Bradley can ride that consistency into Sunday contention.

Brian Kirschner bought Tony Finau First-Round Leader at +7000 on DraftKings. Kirschner reminded bettors Finau finished T3 at last year’s U.S. Open and owns two other top-8s in the championship. The irons are heating up again—Finau gained 5 strokes on approach at Quail Hollow and 3 at the Memorial. Kirschner believes a dialed-in iron day Thursday can vault Big Tone to the top before the putter inevitably cools later in the week.

Brian Kirschner grabbed Bryson DeChambeau Top-20 AFTER ROUND 1 at even money (+100 on DraftKings). Kirschner said the U.S. Open always tilts toward length and called DeChambeau ‘the longest in the world.’ With the 2024 champion posting elite major results all season, Kirschner feels a Thursday fast start is almost inevitable regardless of venue. The bet limits exposure to one round, leveraging Bryson’s power while avoiding potential weekend volatility.

Brian Kirschner grabbed Keegan Bradley at +10000 on DraftKings to win outright, arguing that Bradley’s 2025 consistency is being overlooked. Bradley finished T8 at the PGA Championship and T7 at the Memorial—both tight, demanding driving venues similar to Oakmont. Kirschner highlighted elite recent ball-striking in those two starts and trusts Bradley’s ability to find fairways and handle thick rough. Kirschner admitted the Ryder Cup captaincy subplot adds motivation but said the statistical profile alone makes him live at triple-digit odds.

Brian Kirschner’s favorite prop is Jake Knapp Top-40 at +120. The former Tour winner sits near the top of the driving-distance charts and has gained strokes off the tee in seven consecutive starts. Kirschner admitted Knapp’s overall form has dipped, but the 7,400-yard par-70 rewards exactly what Knapp does best: launch it long and set up short irons. In a diluted field, Kirschner views plus money for a made-cut-and-contend outcome as one of the sneakier value tickets on the board.

Brian Kirschner wagered Daniel Berger Top-20 at +130 after noting Berger has finished inside the top 20 in five of his last eight PGA Tour starts. Kirschner believes another big finish at an elevated event would bolster Berger’s Ryder Cup candidacy and likes his steady tee-to-green play to navigate Wissahickon.

Brian Kirschner backed Keegan Bradley +4000 FRL by recalling Bradley’s first-round lead at the 2022 BMW, the last time the Tour debuted a bentgrass course in the Northeast. Kirschner believes Bradley consistently elevates his game in the region and is always live to open hot.

Brian Kirschner doubled down on Harris English at +10000. He referenced English’s 2021 Travelers win, past success on northeast bentgrass and his current form—victory at Torrey Pines, 18th in Houston, 12th at Augusta. Kirschner believes English is positioned for another PGA Tour win on a soft, target-golf setup.

Brian Kirschner jumped on Viktor Hovland at +2800, arguing the 2023 FedEx Cup champ owns more true win equity than peers in his price band. Hovland’s best performances—wins or near-wins at Oak Hill, Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields—have come on classical bentgrass courses featuring moderate scoring, the exact profile of Philly Cricket Club. With soft conditions and precise iron play expected to separate the field, Kirschner believes Hovland’s ball-striking sets him up to contend deep into Sunday.

Kirschner’s 100-1 dart is Sami Valimaki, citing a blistering approach run of +4.2, +8.1, +4.8 and +3.2 strokes gained in his last four starts plus positive putting in eight of his last nine events. Valimaki already logged top finishes at comp courses Houston and Mexico, both long tracks that emphasize driver usage. Kirschner says those parallels and the Finn’s dual-threat iron/putter combo make him a live longshot in Dallas.

Brian Kirschner pounced on Stephan Jaeger at +4000, calling the number a clear mis-price. He cites Jaeger’s win at the 2024 Houston Open and T6 at the Mexico Open—two comps with generous driving corridors and minimal penalty for missed fairways. Kirschner adds that Jaeger’s irons have "rounded into form," an important indicator because the German intentionally schedules this event each year due to the fit. The high driver usage and low rough at TPC Craig Ranch allow him to lean on his best weapon while avoiding trouble, making Kirschner believe Jaeger’s true win probability is far higher than 2.5%.

Brian Kirschner laid -125 on Mitchell/Poston for a Top‑20 finish, calling them one of the field’s most balanced teams. Both are fresh off top‑11 results (Mitchell T2, Poston T11), Mitchell brings prior Zurich experience, and their contrasting strengths—Mitchell’s driving with Poston’s approach/putting—provide multiple paths to a steady finish even if one facet misfires.

Brian Kirschner jumped on Max Greyserman and Nico Echavarria at +4000, pointing out they finished T4 here last season when both were in far worse form. Across the last 50 rounds Greyserman ranks 1st and Echavarria 17th on Tour in total birdies, a key stat for two best‑ball rounds. Kirschner thinks their proven comfort at TPC Louisiana and elite birdie‑making profile make them a sneaky outright threat.

Brian Kirschner is optimistic about Daniel Berger's chances at the Valero Texas Open, noting a strong return to form so far in 2025. Berger has placed within the top 25 in each of his last four starts, including a T2 at the WMPO, which Kirschner cites as a relevant comp due to similarities in risk-reward TPC design. Berger's history of success in Texas, including a victory at Colonial, further strengthens his credentials as an appealing outright pick.

Brian Kirschner recommends Matti Schmid for a Top 40 finish at +150 odds, highlighting his balanced play lately, finishing 18th, 6th, and 28th in three of his last four events. Schmid gained strokes in all four major statistical categories last week and previously placed 21st here last year, demonstrating an ideal profile to have another solid finish this week.

Brian Kirschner picked Davis Thompson at +3500, emphasizing a strong fit with Memorial Park’s demands. Thompson has demonstrated above-average driving distance and strong short-game skills, an ideal blend for this course. He recently won the John Deere Classic and is coming off an impressive 12th-place showing at The Players Championship, gaining seven strokes ball striking. Thompson's clear course affinity was evidenced by his 21st-place finish in his last visit here, signaling this tournament as a prime opportunity for another win.

Brian Kirschner targeted Steven Jaeger (+5000) as his first-round leader bet, emphasizing Jaeger's recent excellent finishes—T3 at Sony, T6 in Mexico, and T20 at The Players. Additionally, Jaeger has an advantageous morning tee-time to avoid heavy afternoon winds, boosting his chances to jump out quickly at the Valspar Championship.

Brian Kirschner strongly discouraged backing Michael Kim for an outright win at THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite Michael Kim rating extremely well in the Bettspurts stat model, Kirschner highlighted Kim has yet to demonstrate consistent form through the weekend in larger events. While impressed with Kim’s overall resurgence this season, Kirschner emphasized a preference to bet him at weaker fields like the Valero or Valspar events, where he would be far likelier to contend.

Brian Kirschner indicated Aaron Rai makes a great option for a first-round leader bet at THE PLAYERS Championship, though he's uncertain about Rai's win equity to back as an outright. Rai enters the event after posting a T4 and T10 in his last two tournaments, showing excellent current form. Kirschner reconsidered his initial interest in Tom Kim, concluding that Rai provides similar upside at potentially better value. Despite Kirschner's reluctance towards an outright ticket, he's enthusiastic about Rai, particularly for first-round leader markets.

Brian Kirschner stated he is fully committed to betting Daniel Berger this week at 70/1 odds at THE PLAYERS Championship. Berger showed impressive resilience last week at Bay Hill, a course not ideally suited to his game, battling back strongly after a poor opening round. Kirschner stressed Berger is a proven Bermuda grass putter, excels on Florida courses, and fits this venue perfectly. He also pointed out that Berger ranks fourth in a recent statistical model he ran, reinforcing his confidence in Berger as an attractive outright pick at current odds.

Brian Kirschner expressed hesitancy to back Sepp Straka this week at THE PLAYERS Championship despite his popularity and recent run of good form. Straka leads the field in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds and gained an extraordinary 6.2 strokes putting last week. Kirschner believes Straka, historically a below-average putter, is due for regression and questions whether Straka can win an elite event like THE PLAYERS Championship after a sudden spike in form. He labeled Straka as a volatile boom-or-bust play, suggesting he's equally likely to contend to win or have an uneventful week.

Brian Kirschner will not bet Tommy Fleetwood to achieve his debut PGA Tour victory at THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite acknowledging Fleetwood's past success at this course, including a first-round leader performance, Kirschner doubts Fleetwood's ability to close and secure his first-ever PGA Tour win at such a high-profile event. Last week's tournament, Kirschner believed, illustrated a 'classic Tommy Fleetwood week' with a promising but ultimately unsatisfying finish. Kirschner's reluctance is rooted primarily in Fleetwood's history of near misses and continued inability to close out victories in strong fields and marquee events.

Brian Kirschner advised against betting on Hideki Matsuyama this week despite Matsuyama's consistently solid history at THE PLAYERS Championship. Kirschner expressed skepticism toward overly consistent performance trends at this notoriously volatile tournament, believing that Matsuyama is 'due' for regression and a possible missed cut, purely based on the historical anomaly of continually exceptional performances here. Kirschner also noted Matsuyama's recent underwhelming form, particularly with his iron play since his last victory, further supporting the case to fade Hideki this week.

Brian Kirschner is extremely bullish on Keegan Bradley as an outright bet for THE PLAYERS Championship, particularly at favorable 50-to-1 odds. Kirschner cited strong recent iron play, pointing out that Bradley ranked top-three in strokes-gained approach during his most recent event. He also noted Bradley's accuracy off the tee, potential for a hot putting week, and an advantageous betting narrative coming off two missed cuts at this tournament (which Kirschner specifically views as a positive factor for betting opportunities). Kirschner emphasized that Bradley was strongly in contention last week despite making silly mistakes, and expressed surprise and enthusiasm over the relative lack of public betting support.

Brian Kirschner considers Ludvig Aberg a solid betting play at 20-to-1 odds for THE PLAYERS Championship. He highlighted that Ludvig has played the course approximately 20 times over the past year and has extensively practiced short-sided chips around its famously challenging greens. Kirschner emphasized Aberg's elite skill set, pointing out his impressive tools and abilities despite occasional, unpredictable big misses under tournament pressure. Additionally, Kirschner noted that Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods expressed admiration for Ludvig, signaling immense respect amongst elite peers—an indicator of his high-end potential. Kirschner believes this could be a breakout moment for Ludvig and views his current odds as highly actionable.

Brian Kirschner is firmly against betting Rory McIlroy in THE PLAYERS Championship, mentioning Rory's ongoing 'tinkering' with his game as a significant red flag. Kirschner emphasized that amid swing adjustments and inconsistency, McIlroy represents poor value at the top of the betting board, especially given historically tough and unpredictable conditions at TPC Sawgrass. He concluded confidently that McIlroy won't deliver a winning performance this week.

Brian Kirschner advised avoiding betting on Scottie Scheffler to win THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting Scheffler's current putting woes. Kirschner noted that unlike last year when Scheffler entered the tournament with exceptional putting momentum following strong performances at Bay Hill, this year he is visibly frustrated and has missed numerous important putts. Given the difficulty of winning consecutive THE PLAYERS Championships—something Kirschner described as near impossible—he feels strongly that Scheffler won't succeed this week and encourages bettors to confidently pivot away from Scheffler and other favorites at the top due to better value in the 20s range of odds.