Brian Kirschner is optimistic about Daniel Berger's chances at the Valero Texas Open, noting a strong return to form so far in 2025. Berger has placed within the top 25 in each of his last four starts, including a T2 at the WMPO, which Kirschner cites as a relevant comp due to similarities in risk-reward TPC design. Berger's history of success in Texas, including a victory at Colonial, further strengthens his credentials as an appealing outright pick.

Brian Kirschner recommends Matti Schmid for a Top 40 finish at +150 odds, highlighting his balanced play lately, finishing 18th, 6th, and 28th in three of his last four events. Schmid gained strokes in all four major statistical categories last week and previously placed 21st here last year, demonstrating an ideal profile to have another solid finish this week.

Brian Kirschner picked Davis Thompson at +3500, emphasizing a strong fit with Memorial Park’s demands. Thompson has demonstrated above-average driving distance and strong short-game skills, an ideal blend for this course. He recently won the John Deere Classic and is coming off an impressive 12th-place showing at The Players Championship, gaining seven strokes ball striking. Thompson's clear course affinity was evidenced by his 21st-place finish in his last visit here, signaling this tournament as a prime opportunity for another win.

Brian Kirschner targeted Steven Jaeger (+5000) as his first-round leader bet, emphasizing Jaeger's recent excellent finishes—T3 at Sony, T6 in Mexico, and T20 at The Players. Additionally, Jaeger has an advantageous morning tee-time to avoid heavy afternoon winds, boosting his chances to jump out quickly at the Valspar Championship.

Brian Kirschner strongly discouraged backing Michael Kim for an outright win at THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite Michael Kim rating extremely well in the Bettspurts stat model, Kirschner highlighted Kim has yet to demonstrate consistent form through the weekend in larger events. While impressed with Kim’s overall resurgence this season, Kirschner emphasized a preference to bet him at weaker fields like the Valero or Valspar events, where he would be far likelier to contend.

Brian Kirschner indicated Aaron Rai makes a great option for a first-round leader bet at THE PLAYERS Championship, though he's uncertain about Rai's win equity to back as an outright. Rai enters the event after posting a T4 and T10 in his last two tournaments, showing excellent current form. Kirschner reconsidered his initial interest in Tom Kim, concluding that Rai provides similar upside at potentially better value. Despite Kirschner's reluctance towards an outright ticket, he's enthusiastic about Rai, particularly for first-round leader markets.

Brian Kirschner stated he is fully committed to betting Daniel Berger this week at 70/1 odds at THE PLAYERS Championship. Berger showed impressive resilience last week at Bay Hill, a course not ideally suited to his game, battling back strongly after a poor opening round. Kirschner stressed Berger is a proven Bermuda grass putter, excels on Florida courses, and fits this venue perfectly. He also pointed out that Berger ranks fourth in a recent statistical model he ran, reinforcing his confidence in Berger as an attractive outright pick at current odds.

Brian Kirschner expressed hesitancy to back Sepp Straka this week at THE PLAYERS Championship despite his popularity and recent run of good form. Straka leads the field in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds and gained an extraordinary 6.2 strokes putting last week. Kirschner believes Straka, historically a below-average putter, is due for regression and questions whether Straka can win an elite event like THE PLAYERS Championship after a sudden spike in form. He labeled Straka as a volatile boom-or-bust play, suggesting he's equally likely to contend to win or have an uneventful week.

Brian Kirschner will not bet Tommy Fleetwood to achieve his debut PGA Tour victory at THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite acknowledging Fleetwood's past success at this course, including a first-round leader performance, Kirschner doubts Fleetwood's ability to close and secure his first-ever PGA Tour win at such a high-profile event. Last week's tournament, Kirschner believed, illustrated a 'classic Tommy Fleetwood week' with a promising but ultimately unsatisfying finish. Kirschner's reluctance is rooted primarily in Fleetwood's history of near misses and continued inability to close out victories in strong fields and marquee events.

Brian Kirschner advised against betting on Hideki Matsuyama this week despite Matsuyama's consistently solid history at THE PLAYERS Championship. Kirschner expressed skepticism toward overly consistent performance trends at this notoriously volatile tournament, believing that Matsuyama is 'due' for regression and a possible missed cut, purely based on the historical anomaly of continually exceptional performances here. Kirschner also noted Matsuyama's recent underwhelming form, particularly with his iron play since his last victory, further supporting the case to fade Hideki this week.

Brian Kirschner is extremely bullish on Keegan Bradley as an outright bet for THE PLAYERS Championship, particularly at favorable 50-to-1 odds. Kirschner cited strong recent iron play, pointing out that Bradley ranked top-three in strokes-gained approach during his most recent event. He also noted Bradley's accuracy off the tee, potential for a hot putting week, and an advantageous betting narrative coming off two missed cuts at this tournament (which Kirschner specifically views as a positive factor for betting opportunities). Kirschner emphasized that Bradley was strongly in contention last week despite making silly mistakes, and expressed surprise and enthusiasm over the relative lack of public betting support.

Brian Kirschner considers Ludvig Aberg a solid betting play at 20-to-1 odds for THE PLAYERS Championship. He highlighted that Ludvig has played the course approximately 20 times over the past year and has extensively practiced short-sided chips around its famously challenging greens. Kirschner emphasized Aberg's elite skill set, pointing out his impressive tools and abilities despite occasional, unpredictable big misses under tournament pressure. Additionally, Kirschner noted that Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods expressed admiration for Ludvig, signaling immense respect amongst elite peers—an indicator of his high-end potential. Kirschner believes this could be a breakout moment for Ludvig and views his current odds as highly actionable.

Brian Kirschner is firmly against betting Rory McIlroy in THE PLAYERS Championship, mentioning Rory's ongoing 'tinkering' with his game as a significant red flag. Kirschner emphasized that amid swing adjustments and inconsistency, McIlroy represents poor value at the top of the betting board, especially given historically tough and unpredictable conditions at TPC Sawgrass. He concluded confidently that McIlroy won't deliver a winning performance this week.

Brian Kirschner advised avoiding betting on Scottie Scheffler to win THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting Scheffler's current putting woes. Kirschner noted that unlike last year when Scheffler entered the tournament with exceptional putting momentum following strong performances at Bay Hill, this year he is visibly frustrated and has missed numerous important putts. Given the difficulty of winning consecutive THE PLAYERS Championships—something Kirschner described as near impossible—he feels strongly that Scheffler won't succeed this week and encourages bettors to confidently pivot away from Scheffler and other favorites at the top due to better value in the 20s range of odds.