Bryan Leonard advised playing the San Francisco Giants first-half team total over 2.5 runs versus Colorado. He wants to attack Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, who owns a 5.22 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and only 13 strikeouts in 29.1 innings while ranking in the 20th percentile or worse in most run-prevention metrics. Colorado is 2-14 on the road, sports a league-worst –76 run differential, and carries an anemic 64 WRC+—36% below league average. The bullpen is stretched after substitute closer Zach Agnos worked two straight nights and has managed just one strikeout across 7.1 scoreless innings. Despite playing 28 of their 32 games against winning clubs, the Giants are 19-13, and Leonard expects their lineup to jump on Senzatela early. Fading a shaky starter and tired ‘pen, he projects San Francisco to score at least three runs before the sixth inning.

Bryan Leonard recommended betting the Chicago Cubs moneyline in Milwaukee, citing clear advantages both on the mound and at the plate. He highlighted Ben Brown’s underlying metrics—82nd-percentile extension, 81st-percentile whiff rate, and 71st-percentile fastball velocity—as evidence the rookie can neutralize the Brewers. Chicago’s offense carries a 124 WRC+ (third in MLB and 24% better than league average) despite facing winning opponents in 29 of 32 games. Leonard is eager to fade Quinn Priester, whose lifetime 5.84 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and dreadful 1.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate are propped up by a 90th-percentile ground-ball rate but undermined by 21st-percentile chase and whiff numbers. With Milwaukee’s lineup sitting at just a 94 WRC+ (6% below league average), Leonard sees the better starter and the hotter bats on the Chicago side and is backing the Cubs as road dogs.