Despite Jesus Luzardo’s sparkling 1.94 ERA, Zarpentine advised betting Over 4.5 Hits Allowed. The left-hander has surrendered at least five hits in five of seven starts, including a nine-hit outing against Arizona last week. Four of his last five appearances have finished with 5+ knocks against him, suggesting constant traffic that the ERA masks. Tampa Bay faces a southpaw for the second straight day, giving its hitters fresh looks even after struggling Wednesday. Zarpentine expects the Rays to scratch out at least five hits and cash this prop.

For Thursday’s NL West clash in Phoenix, Zarpentine recommended Under 4.5 Hits Allowed on Yoshinobu Yamamoto at plus money. The Japanese ace owns a microscopic 0.90 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through seven starts and has kept opponents to four hits or fewer in four of those outings. He limited a potent Braves lineup to one hit over six innings in his most recent start. Arizona’s offense has sputtered when facing top-tier pitching over the past week, giving Zarpentine confidence that Yamamoto can repeat the feat and stay below the hit threshold.

Zarpentine likes Chris Bassitt to eclipse 5.5 strikeouts against the Angels. Although Bassitt has stayed at five punch-outs or fewer in three straight starts, he’s topped seven Ks three times this season whenever his command is on. The matchup is tailor-made: Los Angeles ranks third in MLB with 9.7 strikeouts per game. After taking the first two games of the set, the Angels are due for an offensive lull, further boosting Bassitt’s ceiling. The analyst expects at least six strikeouts in what profiles as a bounce-back outing.

Zarpentine backed Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+ odds on Over 0.5 HR) in the series finale at Tropicana Field. Schwarber is tied for the major-league lead with 12 bombs and has gone deep five times in his last eight games. He’s also 5-for-9 in the first two games of the series, indicating locked-in plate skills. The matchup is ideal: Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has coughed up eight home runs in 28 home innings this season—every homer he’s allowed has come in this ballpark. If Pepiot yields another long ball Thursday, Zarpentine believes Schwarber is the most likely culprit.

Bryan Zarpentine said Dean Kremer is a strong target for the Over 2.5 Earned Runs prop in Thursday’s matinee at Target Field. Kremer owns a 5.73 ERA overall and an ugly 9.19 ERA in three day starts. He has been shelled for at least five runs in four of six outings this season, with last week’s seven scoreless frames against Kansas City labeled an outlier. With Minnesota riding a four-game winning streak and swinging the bats well, Zarpentine expects the inconsistent right-hander to regress to his usual form and surrender at least three earned runs.

Bryan Zarpentine backed Jose Berrios under 5.5 hits allowed. The Angels have the fewest home hits in MLB and have scored one run or fewer in four of their past nine. Berrios has surrendered five hits or fewer in four of his last six starts and boasts a 2.60 ERA on the road, yielding less than a hit per inning. Tuesday’s eight-run outburst by L.A. was labeled an outlier, giving Zarpentine confidence the right-hander can suppress contact in Anaheim.

Bryan Zarpentine recommended George Springer 2+ total bases. Springer is 5-for-13 with three extra-base hits to open May and is crushing southpaws at a .308 average with an .808 slugging percentage this season. He draws struggling left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, against whom Springer owns a 7-for-16 (.438) career line. Zarpentine wants to capitalize on the hot bat and the pronounced platoon edge rather than settle for a simple single-hit prop.

Bryan Zarpentine targeted Dylan Cease over 4.5 hits allowed at even money, noting the Yankees' offense is far tougher than Pittsburgh, the only club held to three hits in Cease's last five outings. In the four previous starts, the Rays, Astros, Cubs and A’s all racked up six or more knocks. With Cease carrying a 5.76 ERA and facing a red-hot Judge/Goldschmidt tandem, Zarpentine said he would have been comfortable at 5.5 hits, so 4.5 is a "no-brainer" fade.

Bryan Zarpentine advised taking Paul Goldschmidt over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI. Even at 37, Goldschmidt is batting .351 and hits cleanup behind Judge, giving him frequent RBI chances when Judge doesn't leave the yard. Prior to a Monday pinch-hit appearance, Goldy had cleared this combo prop in seven of his last eight starts. He is also 3-for-5 lifetime off Dylan Cease, a small but encouraging sample that supports the play at plus odds.

Bryan Zarpentine said to smash Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases at near-even money. Judge has topped that mark in 11 of his past 13 and Monday was the only miss in his last 10 games. The slugger owns a .400 average (4-for-10) with two doubles and a homer in his career off Wednesday starter Dylan Cease, who is struggling. Zarpentine pointed out Judge's recent multi-hit, extra-base binge as proof the heater is still on after Tuesday's long ball, making two bases the floor rather than the ceiling.

Zarpentine likes Cal Raleigh to hit a home run at +260 despite the shorter price for MLB’s current HR leader. Raleigh already tagged Oakland hurler Luis Severino once in only four career at-bats and just snapped a mini-lull with a two-homer game Friday against Texas. Monday’s contest is being played in Sacramento’s AAA park, which has shorter power alleys than the Coliseum, and the A’s have surrendered the fifth-most homers at home this season. Those park factors, paired with Severino’s elevated barrel rate (10.8%), create a juicy recipe for Raleigh’s 13th blast.

Zarpentine pegged Pete Alonso at +300 to leave the yard. Alonso has eight home runs already, and five have come on the road. He’s 4-for-9 against Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson with three of those hits clearing the fences, a HR rate that jumps off the page even with the small sample. Alonso also enters with eight hits over his last six games, indicating his timing is dialed in. If he gets three plate appearances versus Nelson before Arizona’s bullpen, Zarpentine believes the Polar Bear has a strong chance to connect on at least one mistake fastball.

Zarpentine advised grabbing Griffin Canning to record the win at +190. The Mets are 5-0 in Canning’s starts this season, and the right-hander personally owns four straight winning decisions while allowing one run or fewer in three consecutive outings. Arizona’s roster is just 7-for-40 (.175) against him lifetime, offering little evidence they can break that groove. With the Mets dropping four of five, the handicapper sees a “get-right spot” where New York’s bullpen is rested and likely to protect any lead Canning hands over after the sixth inning.

Zarpentine backed Xander Bogaerts over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI at +145 thanks to a sparkling matchup versus Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon. Bogaerts owns a 5-for-12 (.417) career line against Rodon and hits in the heart of San Diego’s order, giving him multiple pathways to clear the combo prop. Since ending a brief three-game skid, Bogaerts has gone over this number in four of his last six contests. The analyst expects at least two scoring chances in Yankee Stadium’s right-center gap and notes that Rodon’s slider-heavy profile has historically played into Bogaerts’ opposite-field approach.

Bryan Zarpentine said the +100 line on Aaron Judge to clear 1.5 total bases is simply too generous given Judge's current tear. The Yankee slugger is batting .423 during a 13-game hitting streak and has topped 1.5 total bases in eight consecutive contests, failing to do so only twice during that entire streak. He rattled off five straight multi-hit games prior to Sunday. While Judge is only 5-for-18 (.278) lifetime against Monday’s starter Nick Pivetta, Zarpentine believes the recent form outweighs that modest history, especially with Pivetta moving to the Padres rotation and still adjusting to NL lineups. The wager hinges on Judge needing just a pair of singles or one extra-base knock to cash, a threshold he has smashed in 11 of his last 13 games.

Zarpentine backed under 1.5 earned runs for Yoshinobu Yamamoto at +128. The Dodgers ace tops MLB with a 1.06 ERA and has held opponents to one or zero earned in five of six starts. His lone blemish was two runs over five frames versus Detroit. In April he surrendered just one earned run across 24 innings (15 H, 29 K). Meanwhile, Atlanta mustered only one run on three hits Wednesday before an off-day, suggesting their bats remain cold. Zarpentine believes Yamamoto's command and strike-mix will keep the Braves quiet again.

Zarpentine faded Grant Holmes by taking over 2.5 earned runs at -130. The Dodgers have erupted for 10.2 runs per game during a five-game winning streak, with Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Shohei Ohtani all locked in. Holmes sports a 4.50 ERA and has allowed 3+ earned in three of his last five starts, including four runs in four innings against Los Angeles in late March. Given LA's current tear, Zarpentine expects more of the same.

Zarpentine played Alex Bregman over 1.5 total bases at +115. Bregman rides an 11-game hitting streak in which he has reached two or more bases seven times thanks to a surge in doubles and homers. He also owns a 6-for-13 (.462) line with four extra-base hits off Friday starter Joe Ryan. That track record, combined with current form, convinced Zarpentine the plus money is worth chasing.

Zarpentine recommended betting Max Fried to record the win at +125. New York is 6-0 when he takes the mound and Fried has personally notched the W in five straight. He blanked Tampa over 7.2 innings less than two weeks ago and has gone at least six frames without an earned run in three of his last four outings. Because Fried routinely works deep and shields a shaky Yankee bullpen, Zarpentine considers plus money on the win a clear buy.

Bryan Zarpentine urged bettors to grab +210 on Aaron Judge clearing 1.5 hits Friday. His case: Judge is batting an absurd .427 and just went 7-for-11 in Baltimore. The slugger owns multi-hit efforts in four of the last five and six of the last eight games. While the sample versus Ryan Pepiot is small (2-for-6), Zarpentine argued that current form trumps any matchup data, making another two-hit night a strong value at better than 2-to-1.

Zarpentine recommended the plus-money Under 1.5 Earned Runs on Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+128). The Japanese ace leads MLB with a 1.06 ERA and has limited opponents to one earned run or fewer in five of six starts, the lone exception being a two-run, five-inning outing against Detroit. In April he allowed only one earned run across 24 innings (0.38 ERA). Atlanta’s bats are cooling off—just one run on three hits Wednesday at Coors Field followed by an off-day—so Zarpentine expects the Braves to struggle making hard contact. Given the dominance and current opponent form, he sees value in the plus-odds ceiling on Yamamoto’s run prevention.

Calling it easier to fade one pitcher than dissect the entire Dodgers lineup, Zarpentine advised betting Grant Holmes Over 2.5 Earned Runs at -130. Los Angeles has erupted for 51 runs during a five-game winning streak (10.2 per game) with Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani all scorching hot. Holmes has already surrendered 3+ earned in three of his last five starts and was tagged for four runs in four innings by these same Dodgers in late March. With LA locked in at the plate, Zarpentine expects Holmes to get battered again.

Zarpentine highlighted Alex Bregman’s Over 1.5 Total Bases at +115, pointing to an 11-game hit streak in which Bregman has cleared this number seven times thanks to a barrage of doubles and homers. The matchup is especially appealing: Bregman owns a 6-for-13 (.462) career line with four extra-base hits against Minnesota starter Joe Ryan. With both recent form and head-to-head success aligned, Zarpentine expects another multi-base effort from the red-hot third baseman.

Zarpentine recommended backing Max Fried to record the win at +125. New York is 6-0 when Fried takes the mound and the left-hander has personally cashed the W in five straight. He blanked the Tampa lineup over 7.2 innings in their last meeting and has tossed at least six scoreless frames in three of his past four outings. By consistently working deep he shields the Yankees’ shaky bullpen, giving New York extra paths to a decision. Zarpentine sees the plus-odds as too generous given Fried’s run-prevention streak and the club’s perfect record behind him.

Bryan Zarpentine urged bettors to hammer Aaron Judge’s Over 1.5 Hits prop at +210. Judge is on an absolute heater, going 7-for-11 in the mid-week series at Baltimore and producing multi-hit efforts in four of his last five games and six of his last eight. He is slashing a ridiculous .427 overall, so Zarpentine downplayed the matchup angle but still noted that Judge is 2-for-6 lifetime off Friday starter Ryan Pepiot. Given the combination of current form and long odds, Zarpentine called this a must-bet for anyone building a Friday MLB card.

Zarpentine took Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 total bases at +140, leaning on the second baseman’s excellent history versus Yusei Kikuchi (10-for-28, .357, three extra-base hits). Torres is batting .273 on the season and has logged two multi-hit games plus two extra-base hits in his last four outings. He’s also crushing southpaws in 2025 with a .318 average and .984 OPS, giving him multiple paths to two total bases against the left-hander.

For plus money (+155), Zarpentine is fading Yusei Kikuchi’s control with an Over 2.5 walks ticket. Kikuchi has already handed out 18 free passes in 31.1 innings and has cleared three walks in four of five April starts. Detroit is a tough matchup for a wild lefty, ranking top-10 in MLB at drawing walks (3.7 per game). Unless Kikuchi suddenly finds the strike zone, Zarpentine expects another three-plus walk night.

Zarpentine hammered Casey Mize Under 2.5 earned runs at -140 and admitted he would have taken the Under 1.5 if offered. Mize sports a 2.12 ERA, has yielded one run or fewer in four of five starts, and has issued only one walk over his last three turns, limiting self-inflicted damage. Angels hitters are just 7-for-45 (.156) off him lifetime and Los Angeles is ice-cold—five straight losses while averaging 2.3 runs across the last eight games. All signs point to another low-run outing for Detroit’s ace.

Zarpentine played Jarren Duran Over 1.5 total bases at -105, noting the outfielder is white-hot: 10-for-20 with three extra-base hits in his last four games and at least one knock in 15 of 16 since April 13. He has topped 1.5 bases in seven of his past eight contests. The kicker is a dream BvP line—Duran is 9-for-18 (.500) with five doubles and three homers against Thursday starter Jose Berrios. Given both the recent form and the career dominance over Berrios, Zarpentine thinks two bases is the floor right now.

Bryan Zarpentine backed Taijuan Walker to stay Under 2.5 earned runs at +120. Walker owns a 2.78 ERA and has surrendered two runs or fewer in four of five 2025 starts despite rarely working deep (failed to finish five innings in four outings, no appearance past five since Opening Day). Zarpentine argued the short leash actually helps this prop because fewer innings means fewer chances for damage. The matchup is friendly as well: current Nationals hitters are just 8-for-47 (.170) off Walker lifetime. Put it together and Zarpentine expects another sub-three-run line from the right-hander.

Zarpentine took the plus-money swing on Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 RBI at +190. The rookie backstop/first baseman already sits tied for third in MLB with nine homers and has collected five RBIs across his last six games. He also handled Nathan Eovaldi well earlier this season (2-for-3 with a double), giving confidence he can square up the Rangers ace again. Slotted in the heart of a quietly improving A’s lineup, Soderstrom can cash the ticket by driving in a teammate or himself with one swing. At nearly 2-to-1, Zarpentine called it his favorite value play of Wednesday’s night slate.

For plus money (+110), Zarpentine endorsed CJ Abrams Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI. Washington’s leadoff spark plug owns a five-game hit streak, punctuated by a 4-for-5 near-cycle Tuesday. Over that span he’s scored three times and driven in four, while the Nationals have scored five-plus in four of five. Abrams also sports a 5-for-15 career line against Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez, giving him the handedness edge and familiarity. With his speed creating extra base opportunities and Washington’s bats suddenly hot, Zarpentine sees multiple paths—hits, runs or RBIs—for Abrams to cash the prop again.

Zarpentine recommended Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI at -155 despite the short odds. The sophomore shortstop is batting only .227 on the season, but a five-game hitting streak and three overs in his last four contests suggest the breakout is underway. Key matchup note: Henderson is 3-for-5 with a homer off Carlos Carrasco, the veteran righty carrying a 5.26 ERA into Wednesday. With Baltimore’s offense humming and Henderson likely sticking near the top of the order, Zarpentine expects multiple chances to either plate runs or cross the plate himself, making the HRR over a ‘safe’ ladder piece.

Zarpentine targeted Cade Povich Over 4.5 strikeouts at -140. While Povich’s season ERA sits at 5.04 and he’s fallen short of five Ks in three of five starts, the left-hander is trending up after a season-best five-strikeout outing last week. The handicap leans heavily on opponent profile: New York ranks second in MLB strikeouts, fanning 9.6 times per game despite Tuesday’s 15-run explosion. Zarpentine expects at least one punch-out per inning from Povich, forecasting five-plus frames and noting that Yankee Stadium’s deep left-center should let him challenge hitters freely. The volume-plus-matchup combo makes the K over a solid wager.

Bryan Zarpentine backed Emerson Hancock to stay Under 2.5 earned runs at -160 on bet365. He reminded readers that Hancock’s ugly 7.71 ERA is skewed by a disastrous first start (six runs without finishing the first inning). In two outings since, the rookie has settled in for exactly two runs on five hits each time, showing the command that made him a top prospect. The matchup is even sweeter: the Angels have dropped six of their last seven, averaging just two runs during that stretch and getting blanked twice. Virtually no Los Angeles hitter has faced Hancock before, giving the right-hander an extra layer of deception. Zarpentine projected five to six competitive innings and minimal damage, making the ER under his favorite play in the matinee at T-Mobile Park.

Zarpentine suggested betting Adolis Garcia under 0.5 hits at +165. Garcia owns a .211 season average and has gone hitless in three of his last six games while posting a spike in strike-out rate that signals poor pitch recognition. He has struggled mightily against Oakland lefty JP Sears, slashing just .167 (4-for-24) with seven punch-outs. With Sears in rhythm and plus odds on the fade, Zarpentine believes it is the right time to bet Garcia to go hitless.

Zarpentine played JP Sears under 5.5 hits allowed at +110. Sears just held Texas to five hits across five innings in his previous outing and has surrendered only eight knocks over his last 11 frames. The southpaw is yielding less than a hit per inning on the season and owns favorable splits against multiple Rangers bats, not just Garcia. Texas has dropped four of five and scored two runs or fewer in four of those games, so the tout expects the lineup’s funk to continue and keep Sears below six hits again.

Zarpentine advised taking Luis Urias over 0.5 hits at ‑170. Urias is 5-for-13 (.385) lifetime versus left-hander Patrick Corbin, who takes the ball for Texas. The Oakland infielder carries a four-game hitting streak that includes homers in back-to-back games, and he has recorded a hit in 9 of 11 April games in which he logged at least two plate appearances. Given Corbin’s contact-friendly profile and Urias’ recent form, the analyst views one base knock as a very safe floor.

Zarpentine recommended Bailey Ober under 2.5 earned runs at ‑135. Cleveland has scored three or fewer in four of its last five contests, and the hitters on the active roster are batting a combined .116 off Ober. Spark-plug Steven Kwan is 0-for-12 lifetime against him. Ober’s 5.04 ERA is inflated by one blow-up in his season debut; since then he has allowed one run or fewer in three of four starts. With the Guardians slumping and Ober’s historical dominance, the tout expects another quality outing that stays under the 2.5 ER mark.

Bryan Zarpentine said to play Byron Buxton over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI at ‑130 on bet365. Buxton has cleared this combo line in 7 of his last 10 games, thanks to five multi-hit efforts and eight RBI over that stretch. Slotted second in Minnesota’s order, he gains chances to both knock in and score runs. Zarpentine added that Buxton owns a small but encouraging 2-for-5 line with a double versus Guardians rookie Gavin Williams, and Cleveland’s bullpen has been shaky behind him. The recent form, lineup spot, and modest pitcher history point to another productive night.

Bryan Zarpentine emphasizes Ian Happ’s severe struggles against Padres pitcher Dylan Cease, hitting just .056 (1 for 18) career with nine strikeouts. Although Cease enters Monday after a rough outing inflated his ERA to 7.98, his past dominance over Happ’s bat significantly outweighs Happ's recent modest success. While Happ did have a strong 3-for-5 performance on Sunday, his season average remains low (.222) and he endured a 1-for-12 stretch just before this rise. Thus, betting on Happ to go hitless again at plus-odds is compelling value.

Bryan Zarpentine identifies Kyle Tucker as a prime hitter prop option, given his strong historical results against Padres pitcher Dylan Cease, with a .455 average (5 for 11), including two doubles. Tucker has begun the season hot, batting .328 with an OPS of 1.108. His recent offensive surge further bolsters the prop, as he collected multiple hits in four of his last six games, showing a reliable knack for extra-base hits. These indicators make Tucker an attractive prop option (+150 odds) to accumulate two or more total bases today.

Bryan Zarpentine recommends betting on Jose Altuve going over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI at -115 odds. Despite an 0-for-4 showing on Sunday, Altuve has consistently surpassed this prop mark in 10 of his last 13 games. Serving as a key leadoff hitter for the Astros, he contributes in multiple ways. His strong historical success against Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray, batting .333 with 13 hits in 39 at-bats, further supports expectations of a positive rebound.

Bryan Zarpentine is bullish on Tanner Houck going under 2.5 earned runs allowed against the Rays. Despite his 4.41 ERA signaling an average performance this season, Houck showed improvement in his latest outing, allowing just one run over 6.2 innings versus the Blue Jays. Houck also historically performs well against the Rays, holding most Tampa Bay hitters in check. His recent dominance against them—allowing one run or fewer in two out of three starts last year—combined with Tampa Bay’s hot-and-cold offensive performances suggest he’s set up for a solid outing.

Bryan Zarpentine points out Matt Chapman's recent and historical struggles against Taijuan Walker as a strong reason to bet the under 0.5 hits prop. Chapman is hitless in eight at-bats lifetime against Walker and is mired in a current slump, hitting just .184 this season and going hitless in six consecutive games. Despite the general assumption that Chapman won't remain slumping indefinitely, this unfavorable matchup combined with his recent poor form makes fading Chapman an appealing value at +170 odds on bet365.

Bryan Zarpentine recommends taking under 16.5 outs recorded for Ronel Blanco against the Angels. Blanco started poorly this season with short performances, going only five innings against the Giants and exiting after two innings against the Twins due to walks and inconsistency. The Angels' offense is hot, with 11 runs on Thursday and four wins in their last five games, indicating the Astros might limit Blanco's innings to rebuild confidence, further reducing his chances of pitching deep into the game.

Bryan Zarpentine recommends wagering on Aaron Judge to record at least one RBI against the Giants. Judge has 20 RBI through the first 12 games of the season and has produced an RBI in seven of those 12 games. Additionally, Judge has strong career success against Giants' pitcher Robbie Ray, going 3-for-8 with three home runs and four walks, making him a strong bet for RBI production in this matchup.

Bryan Zarpentine recommends betting under 3.5 strikeouts for pitcher Marcus Stroman against the Giants. Stroman has had a rough start to the season, failing to pitch past the fifth inning in either of his first two starts and striking out only three batters per outing. The Giants have shown average strikeout discipline thus far, and with Stroman struggling to find form, Zarpentine sees low strikeout production continuing.

Bryan Zarpentine advocates for Logan O'Hoppe achieving at least one base hit against Ronel Blanco and the Astros. O'Hoppe is off to a sizzling start, hitting .357 (14-for-39) this season, including six extra-base hits. Fresh off a 3-hit performance Thursday, O'Hoppe also holds a 3-for-6 lifetime record with three extra-base hits against Blanco. Given Blanco's current struggles, the matchup strongly favors O'Hoppe extending his hot streak.

Bryan Zarpentine sees Cincinnati Reds pitcher Brady Singer surpassing the 5.5 strikeout line against the Pirates. Singer has struck out at least seven batters in each of his first two starts and recorded seven strikeouts in just five innings against Milwaukee. The Pirates currently rank among MLB leaders in strikeouts, averaging 9.6 strikeouts per game, providing Singer with an excellent matchup opportunity to reach at least six strikeouts.

Bryan Zarpentine likes Cody Bellinger's odds for at least two total bases on his Yankees debut against Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta. Zarpentine highlights that Bellinger came off a scorching spring with a .423 batting average and a 1.214 OPS. Even more encouraging is his career history facing Peralta, where he's gone 5-for-12 including two extra-base hits, combined with the hitter-friendly advantages of playing at Yankee Stadium. Those factors make Bellinger's prop bet a valuable option at plus odds (+165).