Casey Johnston recommends a Top 20 wager on Eric Cole (+360) at Valero Texas Open. After a brief slump, Cole has rebounded impressively with strong back-to-back top-15 finishes in Tampa and Houston. Johnston advises betting on Cole now while he's running hot, especially given the appealing odds available.

Casey Johnston selects Corey Conners (+1600) to win the Valero Texas Open based on Conners' exceptional course history, with his two career TOUR victories both coming at this venue, including as recently as 2023. Conners enters with three consecutive top-10 finishes, displaying remarkable consistency. Johnston sees these factors aligning perfectly for Conners to emerge victorious again.

Casey Johnston seconded Will Gray's earlier caution regarding betting Min Woo Lee outright at the Houston Open. Johnston acknowledged Lee's considerable talent and upside, yet expressed doubts about predicting when Lee will achieve his first PGA Tour victory. Johnston pointed to Lee's history of difficulty converting promising positions into wins and noted how Lee's popularity and personality could bias analysts’ expectations. Due to uncertainty and Lee's tendency to have erratic stretches during tournaments, Johnston advised targeting Lee in safer markets like a top-10 finish, especially because Texas' windy conditions align with Lee’s skills, allowing him to perform well without needing a win.

Casey Johnston pointed to Max Greyserman as a strong value for a top-10 finish at +550 at the Houston Open, highlighting Greyserman's fierce competitive mentality and mental toughness. Johnston emphasized that although Greyserman missed the cut at the Players Championship, he previously recorded three straight top-25 finishes, including an impressive T-11 at the Cognizant Founders Cup. Johnston believes Greyserman's aggressive, confident attitude and recent momentum make him well-positioned to rebound quickly from a disappointing showing and secure his second top-10 of the PGA tour season this week in Texas.

Casey Johnston expressed hesitation about backing Rory McIlroy for a top-10 finish this week at the Texas Children's Houston Open, despite Rory's form. Johnston noted that Rory has historically experimented with various preparation strategies for the Masters and, despite recently winning at TPC Sawgrass and Pebble Beach, has failed to convert similar success into Augusta victories. Johnston speculated Rory might treat this week as more about testing and fine-tuning for Augusta than a must-win scenario, making a top-10 bet risky. He specifically pointed out, even a top-15 finish could still satisfy Rory's goals, rendering the -105 top-10 market less appealing.

Casey Johnston advocated for backing Scottie Scheffler outright to win the Texas Children's Houston Open at odds of +350 despite acknowledging these short odds. Johnston reasoned that Scheffler's Texas roots, runner-up finish at this event last year, and his motivation to capture a victory ahead of the upcoming Masters provide strong justification. He emphasized that despite limited high finishes this season (only one top five and two top tens), comforting course familiarity in Texas along with a desire to gain momentum before Augusta makes Scheffler a particularly appealing bet this week.

Casey Johnston advocates backing Max Greyserman for a Top 10 finish (+550), predicting a strong rebound after missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship. Johnston remains bullish on Greyserman’s talent, continuing to forecast a 2025 victory at some point, and sees this week’s event as a spot to back Greyserman's competitive toughness following a disappointing showing.

Casey Johnston tabs Aaron Rai at +2800 odds due to strong convergence of good current form and course history. Rai was one of the runners-up last year at the Texas Children's Houston Open and enters this year with three consecutive top-15 finishes. Currently ranking within the top 20 on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total in 2025, Johnston highlights Rai as an excellent wagering choice.

Casey Johnston predicts Scottie Scheffler will win the Texas Children's Houston Open, citing strong course history and current form. Scheffler finished T2 at this event last year, narrowly missing out to Stephan Jaeger. Johnston feels Scheffler, still winless in 2025, is overdue for a victory heading into the Masters, and this Texas homecoming event offers a perfect opportunity for him to secure it.

Casey Johnston sees Sepp Straka as a strong value at +400 for Top Continental European. Straka's terrific season form and ability to compete well in this week's field makes this proposition a calculated risk with good returns.

Casey Johnston picks Joe Highsmith for a top 20 finish at +300, taking into account his excellent early March win and recent top 20 at THE PLAYERS. Highsmith's comprehensive strokes gain season stats hint at further success with notable absences within the field.

Casey Johnston supports a Jake Knapp victory at +5500, underlined by consistent top 25 finishes and momentum from T12 and T6 over the past two weeks. This confidence stems from Knapp's persistent leaderboard presence, sharpening for a winning breakthrough.

Casey Johnston sees Corey Conners as a strong candidate at +2500 to win, rooted in his hot streak with a third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Johnston notes Conners' superb performance in the current season's opening events.

Casey Johnston recommends backing Ludvig Aberg (+1800) at THE PLAYERS Championship, citing his strong closing round (4-under) performance following a poor Saturday at Arnold Palmer Invitational. Johnston views the bounce-back finish as a positive indicator signaling Aberg's readiness for another win in what he has dubbed the 'Year of Aberg.'