Chirimbes’ 23-13 score has Kansas City winning but Washington covering the 12.5. The Commanders get WRs Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin back, giving Marcus Mariota—starting for injured Jayden Daniels—legitimate weapons against a Chiefs defense allowing just 17.7 PPG (3rd). KC has covered four straight and ranks 6th in scoring offense (26.6 PPG), but Chirimbes thinks the inflated number ignores Washington’s healthier skill group and middling 24.3 PPG defense that can keep the back door open.

Predicting a 27-21 final, Chirimbes laid the field goal with Green Bay. He framed the matchup around Aaron Rodgers facing his old franchise, but believes the real edge is Jordan Love’s efficiency (10 TD, 2 INT) and a pass rush led by Micah Parsons that tops the league in sacks. With Pittsburgh’s offensive line below average in adjusted sack rate and Green Bay owning six wins in the last seven meetings, Chirimbes is happy to ride the Packers’ motivation spot.

Chirimbes laid the 3.5 with Denver, projecting a 31-27 victory to extend the Broncos’ perfect 3-0 home record. He reviewed Denver’s knack for comeback wins—rallies from 19-0, 17-3 and a last-minute defensive stand in London—as evidence of resilience. While Dak Prescott’s 16-3 TD/INT ratio scares him, he pointed out Dallas ranks 30th in scoring defense (29.4 PPG) and is just 1-3 on the road, making Mile-High altitude and recent form decisive factors.

Chirimbes predicted a 37-16 rout, arguing Indianapolis can run away with the AFC South. Rookie QB Cam Ward looks overwhelmed behind Tennessee’s porous line, while Daniel Jones—Chirimbes’ Comeback Player of the Year candidate—has stabilized a Colts offense that already averages 27.2 PPG. With Indy 4-0 ATS in its last four and Tennessee’s pass protection allowing the third-highest sack rate, Chirimbes is comfortable eating the big number.

Chirimbes projected a 20-17 Tampa win, cautioning bettors the 3.5-point spread leaves the back door open. He expects Baker Mayfield to rebound from his worst outing but noted eight Buccaneer starters missed practice time. Tampa has taken five of the last six in the series, while New Orleans continues to sputter offensively with an anemic ground game and Spencer Rattler under center—factors that point to the Bucs winning yet possibly failing to cover.

Although Chirimbes’ score call is Patriots 19-16, he made it clear the betting angle is Browns +7. Cleveland owns the NFL’s No. 1 defense (256.1 YPG) and sits tied for 13th in scoring D (21.7 PPG allowed). He admitted rookie QB Dillon Gabriel limits the down-field passing game, but backed the defense to keep Drake Maye (12 TDs, 2 INTs) in check long enough for a one-score game, snapping the Patriots’ four-game ATS streak.

Chirimbes laid the 7.5, projecting a 27-19 win. He cited Philadelphia’s league-low three turnovers (two of which came in the first Giants meeting) and questioned whether New York can emotionally rebound after surrendering 33 fourth-quarter points in Denver. With Jalen Hurts facing a reeling secondary and the Eagles protecting the football better than any team in the NFL, Chirimbes expects the favorite to grind out a cover.

Chirimbes predicted a razor-thin 20-19 Buffalo win but made it clear he prefers Carolina +7. The Panthers are 3-0 straight up and ATS at home, rank 7th in total defense (295.7 YPG allowed) and 13th in scoring defense (21.7 PPG). Meanwhile, Buffalo has dropped two straight after a 4-0 start, and Josh Allen has never lost three in a row—reason enough for Chirimbes to call for a Bills escape but not a cover.

Calling Miami a live underdog, Chirimbes ignored the 1-6 record and took the +7.5 outright, predicting a 33-31 upset. He expects a pride game from Tua Tagovailoa after a tumultuous week and sees a let-down spot for Atlanta, which turns to Kirk Cousins while rookie Michael Penix Jr. nurses a bone bruise. The change forces the Falcons to shrink their playbook, and Chirimbes believes Miami’s veteran roster capitalizes on the short-notice QB switch.

Even with Lamar Jackson (hamstring) sitting for a third straight week, Chirimbes laid the touchdown, forecasting a 37-27 Baltimore win. He argued this is the pivot point of the Ravens’ season as the upcoming schedule softens and expects John Harbaugh’s defense to end Chicago’s four-game winning streak. Baltimore’s offense still averages 5.1 yards per carry, and the Bears secondary has allowed nine TD passes during their streak—metrics that led Chirimbes to back the desperate home favorite.

Chirimbes laid the 2.5 with Houston in a 19-17 projection, calling DeMeco Ryans’ defense "the best unit on the field." He highlighted San Francisco’s historic 14-game interception drought—the longest in NFL history—and a lengthy injury report that leaves the Niners short-handed on both sides of the ball. With Brock Purdy under growing pressure from backup Mac Jones, Chirimbes believes the more physical Texans defense flips field position often enough to justify the small home chalk.

Chip Chirimbes recommended laying the 6 points with Cincinnati, projecting a 23-17 win. He emphasized how dysfunctional New York’s passing game has become, noting owner Woody Johnson’s post-game quip that “if we can just complete a pass, it would look good.” With Tyrod Taylor (knee) ruled out, Justin Fields is forced back under center after being benched last week. Chirimbes expects the Bengals’ front—already top-10 in pressure rate—to feast on a Jets line that has surrendered 28 sacks, turning the quarterback chaos into another long Sunday for New York backers.