Chris Durell recommended Rico Hoey for Top 10 (+500) and Top 20 (+260) bets, pointing to his elite tee-to-green form, ranking first in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds. Hoey has consistently found fairways (11th in fairways gained) and excelled with his iron play (18th in SG: Approach), leading to significant birdie opportunities (7th in opportunities gained). While historically struggling on the greens (144th in SG: Putting), Hoey had a recent strong putting performance in Houston (+2.4 strokes gained), suggesting potential continuation and opportunity to improve upon his T14 finish from the previous visit at TPC San Antonio.

Chris Durell identified Denny McCarthy as a strong outright (+2800) and Top 10 (+260) betting candidate. Although still hunting for his first PGA Tour victory, McCarthy enters the Valero Texas Open impressively consistent, making the cut in 12 straight events and finishing inside the Top 20 in four of his last five starts. He excelled here previously, notably achieving a runner-up finish last year and regularly placing well at TPC San Antonio. His strengths include elite putting (12th in SG: Putting) and iron play (10th in SG: Approach), mitigating his more average driving statistics, making him a smart play this week.

Chris Durell stated Corey Conners is his top outright bet for the Valero Texas Open. Conners enters with ideal conditions for success, holding exceptional course history at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course, including two victories (2020 and 2023) and never finishing worse than 35th in six trips. Statistically, he's second only to Jordan Spieth in career Strokes Gained: Total here. Conners is also riding excellent recent form with three consecutive Top 10s heading into the event, gaining over 7 strokes tee-to-green in each of those starts. Notably, his typically shaky putter is hot right now, further adding confidence to betting him outright.

Chris Durell highlighted Mackenzie Hughes as a solid Top-10 and Top-20 target for betting due to his standout course history at Memorial Park Golf Course. Hughes has consistently excelled here, making four consecutive top-30 finishes since the tournament moved venues, including a top-10 finish in 2021 and back-to-back finishes of 16th and 14th in recent years. Despite mediocre recent form overall, his strong affinity for Memorial Park — ranking 6th in total strokes gained at the venue — makes Hughes a dependable choice at the offered odds (+700 Top-10, +260 Top-20). Durell suggests placing heavier bets on the safer Top-20 line and moderately lighter units on the Top-10 market, advising to hold off on Top-5 or outright wagers unless odds improve leading up to tee-off.

Chris Durell strongly endorsed Davis Riley as a value option across multiple betting markets (outright, top 5, top 10, top 20) for the Texas Children's Houston Open. Riley carries impressive course history at Memorial Park, with all previous finishes within the top 30 and peaking with a T14 last season. His recent form further supports this pick, boasting two top-10 results in his last three outings. Key statistical form enhances Riley's appeal, ranking 4th in strokes gained total, 14th in driving distance, 6th in strokes gained approach, and 5th in strokes gained around the green in the recent three-event stretch. Given the substantial variance in his odds across sportsbooks, Durell advises bettors to shop for optimal value, targeting the best lines like FanDuel Sportsbook's +12000 outright.

Chris Durell recommended backing Rory McIlroy in a head-to-head matchup over Scottie Scheffler at the 2025 Texas Children's Houston Open. Despite Scheffler's strong course history at Memorial Park Golf Course, including three straight top-10 finishes and two runner-ups, Durell favors McIlroy, who enters with superior current form. Rory has secured two victories in his past four events during 2025, along with respectable 15th and 17th place finishes in the other two tournaments, highlighting exceptional recent play. Conversely, Scheffler has displayed inconsistent performance, posting just two top-10 results across five events this season, with struggles specifically in his short game, losing strokes around the green in three of those tournaments. Based on Scheffler's uneven short game form combined with Rory's strong recent showings, Durell sees value in betting McIlroy as a likely underdog in a full-tournament matchup.