Chris Farley grabbed Houston +5.5 for Thursday Night Football, banking on the NFL’s top-ranked defense (16.3 points and 258.1 yards allowed per game) to neutralize Josh Allen. Farley pointed out Buffalo’s trench issues, citing last week’s 202 rushing yards conceded to Tampa and a season-long pattern of run-defense lapses. He reminded bettors that a similarly constructed Texans unit beat Buffalo 23-20 last year while holding Allen in check, and Houston still sits top-3 against the run at 3.9 yards per carry allowed. With C.J. Stroud still in concussion protocol, Farley expects DeMeco Ryans’ defense to dictate tempo, force Allen into mistakes, and keep this closer than the market expects. He called the number playable down to +4.5.

Chris Farley sprinkled on Matthew Golden anytime TD at +250, noting the rookie played 47% of snaps in his debut but drew only two targets because Green Bay controlled the game. He expects a faster-paced, higher-scoring contest Thursday; if the Packers fall into a neutral or negative game script, Jordan Love should look Golden’s way more often. Farley highlighted that Josh Jacobs logged 20 touches while Love attempted just 22 passes versus Detroit, a usage split unlikely to repeat if Washington pushes the pace. More routes for Golden at home boosts the rookie’s touchdown equity at tasty odds.

Chris Farley grabbed Deebo Samuel anytime TD at +190, arguing Washington will have to manufacture offense through its versatile wideout because Green Bay’s front just stone-walled Detroit for 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts. With Austin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt facing a brick wall, Farley expects Scott Turner to scheme Samuel on jet motions and red-zone gadget plays. Samuel commanded a team-high nine targets and caught seven passes in Week 1, making him Washington’s most reliable scoring threat against a run-stuffing defense.

Chris Farley took Jordan Love over 226.5 passing yards, citing Matt LaFleur’s track record against Dan Quinn defenses (30, 31 and 48 points in three meetings). Love had 167 yards by halftime last week before game script stalled him at 188. Farley remains skeptical of Washington’s secondary and expects a more competitive game that keeps Love throwing. He referenced Love’s 2023 home splits—268.9 YPG average and a 251-yard median in victories—and noted that last year’s injuries muddied season-long stats. With Green Bay likely needing to match Jayden Daniels score-for-score, Farley projects 250-plus yards for Love.

Chris Farley faded Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 42.5 rushing yards. He expects Green Bay’s ferocious Micah Parsons-led pass rush to force Washington into more passing sets, reducing the rookie’s snaps because he is unproven in pass protection. Farley also warned of a crowded backfield with Chris Rodriguez potentially active and Austin Ekeler handling catch-up duties. He called Croskey-Merritt’s Week 1 line inflated: 82 yards came on 10 carries but 42 yards were on one run, leaving 9 totes for 40 yards. The same Packers defense just held David Montgomery to 2.3 YPC. In a likely shootout, Farley believes Ekeler fits the script better and sees limited rushing volume for Croskey-Merritt.

Chris Farley backed Washington +3.5 on Thursday night, arguing the market is underrating how well Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are playing. He pointed out that Daniels went 19-of-30 for 233 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT while adding 68 rushing yards behind a 220-yard team ground effort against the Giants’ vaunted front. Washington’s defense also held New York to 231 total yards and sacked Russell Wilson twice. Farley acknowledged Green Bay’s impressive 24-13 win over Detroit but noted the Packers eased off after leading 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. With the Commanders fresh off an NFC title-game run, he expects a back-and-forth battle and thinks the hook on a field-goal spread is valuable on a short week at Lambeau.