Chris Liss argued that Patrick Mahomes will continue to post merely solid, Brady-before-Moss style fantasy numbers until Kansas City uncovers a true game-breaking wideout. Liss pointed to the dramatic swing in Tom Brady’s production—50 TDs the year Randy Moss arrived after hovering around 26 beforehand—as proof that even all-time great quarterbacks need an alpha to unlock ceiling weeks. Mahomes averaged just 26.8 passing TDs over the two seasons since Tyreek Hill left and now relies on an aging Travis Kelce and a committee of unproven receivers. Liss said Mahomes is essentially “game-manager Brady” on a defense-led, run-leaning team unless Rashee Rice returns healthy and either Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown morphs into a Hill-level threat. Until that happens, he sees another 25-to-27-TD season and would not pay current QB6–QB7 season-long cost, reserving Mahomes for late-round best-ball stacks that bet on a Rice/Worthy breakout.

Chris Liss called Christian McCaffrey the "Jacob deGrom of football"— volatile health but league-winning dominance when right— and loves scooping him around overall pick 15. Although McCaffrey carries Henry’s age (29) and mileage concerns, Liss argued he also possesses Achane’s nuclear ceiling, especially with Deebo Samuel gone and 80-90 receptions back on the table. Liss is comfortable banking on just 14 healthy games, noting that even a Week 3-7 absence would be survivable given his per-game edge. After a year in which managers had to spend the 1.01, nabbing McCaffrey at the 1/2 turn is “an easy pick” and pairs beautifully with an early-round WR like Brian Thomas.

Chris Liss framed Derrick Henry as the safest way to open Round 2. Liss reminded listeners that Henry is entering his age-31 season yet showed zero decline last year, prompting Baltimore to hand him a three-year extension. The Ravens’ Lamar-led offense provides continual red-zone trips, and Liss expects another "1500-yard, 15-TD" campaign if Henry stays healthy. He conceded the veteran is unlikely to top 20 receptions, but argued the yardage/TD cushion still gives Henry a top-12 RB floor with realistic 1800-yard upside. Because Henry regularly slides to picks 11-14, Liss prefers him over boom-or-bust options like Devon Achane, calling the selection a "damn high-floor" anchor for season-long builds.

Chris Liss is perfectly comfortable spending a top-10 overall pick on rookie Ashton Jeanty after the Raiders grabbed him sixth in the NFL Draft. Liss expects Pete Carroll to recreate the Marshawn Lynch blueprint, projecting roughly 300 carries plus 40-60 receptions for Jeanty— elite touch volume that makes him a threat to lead the league in usage. Jeanty cleared Liss’s 20-catch college threshold with 43 receptions in 2023 and showed true three-down chops. Carroll’s historical RB1 averages 20.8 carries and 2.6 targets per game; plug those numbers into a Vegas offense that now leans on play-action and you have first-round fantasy equity. Liss said Jeanty could justifiably be taken 1.01 but is usually available around pick 8-10, calling that discount "found money" for any season-long drafter willing to bet on rookie running-back immediacy.

Chris Liss warned drafters to pass on Sam LaPorta at his current Round-5 sticker price. Liss “got burned” paying up for LaPorta last season and sees a similar trap forming. His argument is simple math: drafters can grab Mark Andrews or even Travis Kelce a round later, or wait two more rounds for Jonnu Smith, while spending Round-5 capital on scarce wide-receiver or running-back talent. Liss pegged the odds of LaPorta out-scoring Andrews at only 45 %, far too small to justify the ADP premium. Detroit’s target tree also tightened after Jahmyr Gibbs’ late-season emergence— Gibbs saw a 17 % target share from Week 10 on— which quietly siphoned red-zone looks from LaPorta. With no meaningful separation in ceiling but a clear opportunity cost, Liss is fading LaPorta in both best ball and managed leagues.

Chris Liss called Jonnu Smith the screaming value of 2024 drafts. Smith is slipping into rounds 8-9 as the TE7-8 despite finishing last season as the overall TE2 from Week 10 on. Liss reminded listeners that Mike McDaniel treated Smith as the No. 2 target behind Tyreek Hill whenever Jaylen Waddle was banged up, and even when the full trio played Smith still earned a 19 % target share. He argued that the market is ignoring both Miami’s shallow target tree and Smith’s late-career trajectory— tight ends typically peak at age 28-29. If Miami stays healthy, Smith is locked in as the tertiary option; if Tyreek or Waddle miss time, he vaults to No. 2 and showed week-winning upside (six-catch, walk-off TD game in OT was Liss’s favorite example). A rumored trade to Pittsburgh would only help because Arthur Smith— the coach who turned Jonnu into a red-zone monster in Atlanta— now calls the Steelers’ plays. Liss said the gap between Smith and George Kittle is nonexistent yet Kittle goes three rounds earlier, so he is scooping Jonnu everywhere in best ball and season-long.

Chris Liss argued against taking Saquon Barkley as the first running back off the board. Barkley is now 28 with nearly 1,500 career touches, and Liss is spooked by the 480-touch workload he handled last year. Instead, he prefers Bijan Robinson or even Jameer Gibbs at 1.01, pointing out that both are entering their physical primes without mileage concerns. Liss framed the Barkley decision as a classic "why take the chance?" scenario— the talent and situation are great, but the age/usage risk is unnecessary when fresher elite options exist.

Chris Liss painted Trevor Lawrence as a screaming value in both best-ball and redraft. Liss can "easily see" Lawrence throwing 35 touchdowns, adding 3–4 rushing scores and roughly 400 rushing yards— a stat line that would land him firmly inside the top-five fantasy quarterbacks. Despite that ceiling, Lawrence is virtually free to stack after selecting Brian Thomas in Round 1 and Travis Hunter in Round 5/6, because drafters can “pick which round you want him in.” Liss emphasized the tournament appeal of a Thomas/Hunter/Lawrence stack, noting that coherent game-stack constructions rarely come this cheaply.

Chris Liss hammered home how unpredictable Travis Hunter’s playing time will be and advised treating him as a spike-week only play. Liss said the Jaguars will likely toggle Hunter between 75 % defensive snaps and 75 % offensive snaps depending on game script— something fantasy managers will not know until kickoff. When Jacksonville is protecting a lead, the staff can stash Hunter at corner and pull him from the route tree entirely, capping weekly ceilings. Liss estimated 20–25 offensive snaps in those weeks, making Hunter nearly unusable in start/sit formats. Because his late-5th/early-6th ADP still offers slate-breaking upside on the games he is allowed to run full routes, Liss recommended taking him only in best-ball tournaments where you do not have to guess which weeks the big plays come.

Chris Liss projected Brian Thomas to command roughly 150 targets in Liam Cohen’s first season running the Jaguars’ offense. Liss noted that Cohen’s 2023 Buccaneers funneled volume to two perimeter receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), and he expects a similar template with Thomas functioning as Trevor Lawrence’s clear No. 1 option. Thomas’ rookie-year production (87-1,280-10) already dwarfed Tee Higgins’ debut line, and Liss believes the coaching staff will continue to feature him as a perimeter dominator. With Evan Engram gone and only Parker Washington and Diami Brown behind him on the depth chart, Thomas’ path to a league-leading workload is wide open, making him an early-round cornerstone in season-long formats.

Chris Liss said Travis Hunter’s early redraft price in the 4‒5 turn is a trap. Liss argued that Hunter’s target ceiling is only 125-130 because Brian Thomas is locked in for roughly 150 looks as the unquestioned alpha. On top of the target squeeze, Jacksonville is expected to ask Hunter to play heavy defensive snaps, further capping his offensive usage. Liss compared the buzz to the year Jamar Chase went in Round 4 as a rookie but stressed the skill-set differs: Chase was an elite, single-position receiver prospect, whereas Hunter’s draft capital was driven by his two-way ability. If Jacksonville finds itself in the playoff hunt, the coaching staff could prioritize Hunter’s corner snaps and limit him to 20-25 offensive plays per week. Liss said he would not take Hunter before Round 7 and would happily let someone else absorb the downside at current cost.